Cancer testing using saliva - insurance giants to invest in product development that will lower the insurance premium

Recently the NHK News On-line reported the following:

唾液でがん検査 保険大手が出資へ 保険料安くなる商品開発も

2019年8月23日 0時00分

わずかな唾液から、がんのリスクを調べられる検査技術を開発したベンチャー企業に、大手の生命保険会社と損害保険会社が出資することになりました。検査を受けた人には保険料を安くする新しい保険商品の開発などを検討する見通しです。

生命保険大手の日本生命と損害保険大手のＳＯＭＰＯホールディングスは今月中にも、慶応大学の研究所が設立した山形県のベンチャー企業、サリバテックにそれぞれ数億円、出資する方針です。

ベンチャー企業は、わずかな唾液を採取するだけでがんの疑いがあるかどうかを調べることができる検査技術を開発し、各地の医療機関で使われるようになっています。

日本生命とＳＯＭＰＯホールディングスでは、定期的に検査を受けると保険料が安くなる新しい生命保険や医療保険の開発などを検討する見通しです。

検査でがんを早期に発見できれば契約者のためにもなるうえ、保険会社にとっても保険金の支払いが減って収益の拡大が期待できます。

最近では、健康診断を受けたり運動したりして、病気の予防に取り組んでいる人の保険料を割り引く「健康増進型」の保険が人気で、保険会社も商品開発に力を入れています。

Translation

A major life insurance company and a non-life insurance company had invested in a venture company that developed testing technologies which could examine cancer risks from a small amount of saliva. For those who had been examined, plans were being considered to develop new insurance products that would reduce their insurance premiums.

The major life insurance company Nippon Life and the non-life insurance company SOMPO Holdings were planning to invest several hundred million yen each this month in a venture company, Saliva Tech, a research institute in Yamagata Prefecture established by Keio University.

The venture company had developed testing techniques that could be used to determine whether there was a cancer suspicion by collecting a small amount of saliva and this technique was being used in medical institutions around the world.

Nippon Life and SOMPO Holdings were planning to consider the development of new life insurance and medical insurance that would reduce insurance premiums if there was regular cancer checking.

If cancer could be detected early through testing, beside that it would be beneficial to policyholders, the insurance companies could expect to increase their profits by reducing insurance payments.

Recently, “Health Promotion” insurance, which discounted insurance premiums for people who took health checkups and did exercise to prevent disease, was popular. Insurance companies were also putting a lot of effort into their product development.

     I think this new insurance product which demands regular saliva testing for cancer is a win-win situation for both the insurer and the insured.

Model guns made in Japan (6)

Two Mauser pistol model guns: respectively made by Marushin and MGC in the 1980s

Marushin  Mauser M712

A wooden holster using a hook and lock system

A close look of the pistol showing the fine details. All parts are movable.

Marushin Mauser  M712 pistol with wooden holster attached

Marushin, apart from making the Mauser M712 using alloy and plastic in the late 1980s, also manufactured an assembled model of Mauser M712 using alloy metal only. The outlook of this pistol is the same as the plastic M712 as introduced in my blog dated 3th August 2019 except that it is gold color plated. In this full metal version, the spent cartridges could still be ejected despite the heavy weight of the metal slide. Another different feature is that it has a wooden grip. Also, as an optional accessory, a wooden holster can be attached to its grip to make the pistol working like a rifle. This wooden holster, using a hook and lock system, can be fitted to the grip nicely thanks to the precision manufacturing skill of the model gun maker.

MGC Mauser Model 1916

MGC in early 1980s also made a full metal Mauser pistol, it was the Model 1916, using metal alloy only. But this model has no firing selection mode and thus has only semi-automatic function. Also, the ammunition input method is restrictive: it can only be loaded from the top of the pistol because there is no detectable magazine as the Mauser M712. Its grip is made of plastic. Although a wooden holster could be bought as an optional accessory which can be fixed to the gun’s grip, the locking system is not authentic. It uses a screwing system to connect the pistol’s grip to the wooden holster instead of using a hook and lock system as seen in the M712 made by Marushin.

MGC Mauser pistol  Model 1916 with a wooden holster attached

The wooden holster for Model 1916. Note the big round screw

Cartridges are loaded into the magazine from the top

Three extraterrestrial planets in 31 light years from Earth – are within the range where life can exist

Recently CNN.jp.co reported the following:

2019.08.02 Fri posted at 11:45 JST

地球から３１光年に３つの系外惑星、生命存在可能な圏内にも

（ＣＮＮ） 米航空宇宙局（ＮＡＳＡ）の惑星探査衛星「ＴＥＳＳ（テス）」がこのほど、地球から３１光年先に３つの系外惑星を発見した。このうち１つは、恒星から適度な距離にあって生命が存在できる「ハビタブルゾーン」内で見つかった。

３つの系外惑星はうみへび座にあるＭ型わい星「ＧＪ３５７」を周回。この恒星は太陽に比べ４０％低温で、質量や大きさも太陽の３分の１ほどにとどまる。研究結果は天文学誌「アストロノミー・アンド・アストロフィジックス」に今週発表された。

最初に見つかった系外惑星は「ＧＪ３５７ｂ」。地球より２２％大きく質量も８０％上回っており、「スーパーアース」に当たる。恒星までの距離は水星から太陽の１１分の１で、平均気温は推計でカ氏４９０度（セ氏約２５４度）に上る。

論文の共著者エンリク・パレ氏は「我々はＧＪ３５７ｂのことを『ホットアース』と呼んでいる」と説明。生命は存在できないものの、これまで見つかった中で地球に３番目に近いトランジット系外惑星として注目に値すると指摘した。

最も魅力的な発見となったのは、地球の６．１倍の質量を持つスーパーアース「ＧＪ３５７ｄ」だ。恒星から適度な距離を周回しており、ちょうど良い気温を保っていることから、表面に液体の水が存在できる可能性がある。

別の共著者によると、ＧＪ３５７ｄが主星から受け取る恒星エネルギーは太陽系の火星と同程度。仮に濃い大気を有している場合、惑星を温めるのに十分な熱を閉じ込め、表面に液体の水が存在できる可能性があるという。

２つの惑星の間には「ＧＪ３５７ｃ」が存在する。質量は地球の３．４倍で、気温はカ氏２６０度（セ氏約１２６度）となっている。

Translation

(CNN) NASA's planetary exploration satellite "TESS" recently discovered three extra-solar planets 31 light years from Earth. One of them was found in a “habitable zone” where life could exist at a reasonable distance from a star.

The three extra-solar planets orbited the M-type dwarf “GJ357” in Hydra. This star was 40% cooler than the sun, and its mass and size were about one-third that of the sun. The results of the study were published this week in the astronomy journal "Astronomy and Astrophysics".

The first exoplanet found was “GJ357b”. It was 22% larger than the Earth and 80% higher in mass than the Earth, equivalent to a “Super Earth”. The distance to the star was 1/11 of the sun from Mercury, and the average temperature was estimated to be 490 degrees Celsius (about 254 degrees Celsius).

Enrique Palais the co-author of this published paper “We call GJ357b ‘Hot Earth’” explained. Although life could not exist, he pointed out that it was worth noting as a transit exoplanet that was the third closest to the earth that has been found so far.

The most fascinating discovery was the Super Earth “GJ357d”, which had 6.1 times the mass of the Earth. Since it orbited a moderate distance from the star and maintained a good temperature, liquid water might exist on the surface.

According to another co-author, the star energy that GJ357d received from the main star was comparable to that of Mars in the solar system. If it had a dense atmosphere, it might contain enough water to warm the planet and liquid water on the surface.

There was “GJ357c” in between these two planets. The mass was 3.4 times that of the Earth, and the temperature was 260 degrees Celsius (about 126 degrees Celsius).

        So, NASA's planetary exploration satellite "TESS" has found something that captivates the imagination of scientists. I think thirty-one light years from Earth is a little bit too far for human to travel to at the moment.

National Cancer Center: The 5-year survival rate for cancer patients is 66.1%.

Recently NHK News On-line reported the following:

がん患者の５年生存率は66.1％ 国立がん研究センター

2019年8月8日 4時01分

がん患者を治療によってどれくらい救えたかを示す、５年生存率は、最新の集計で66.1％になると、国立がん研究センターが発表しました。生存率のデータは病院ごとでも公表され、国立がん研究センターは、患者が病院の特徴を知る参考の１つになるとしています。

国立がん研究センターは、平成22年までの２年間に全国にあるがんの拠点病院277か所で治療を受けた、およそ57万人のがん患者のデータを分析しました。

その結果、がん患者を治療によってどのくらい救えたかを示す、診断から５年後の生存率は、全体で66.1％でした。

がんの種類別にみますと、最も高いのは前立腺がんで98.6％、続いて乳がんが92.5％、子宮体がんが82.1％、子宮頸がんが75.3％、患者数の多い大腸がんが72.9％、胃がんが71.6％、ぼうこうがんが69.5％となっています。

一方で、最も低かったのは、すい臓がんで9.6％、続いて肝臓がんが40％、肺がんが40.6％、食道がんが44.4％となっています。

また、大腸がんや胃がんなど５種類のがんについては、病院ごとにステージ別の生存率も公表されていて、国立がん研究センターのウェブサイトで見ることができます。

病院ごとのデータでは、がん以外の持病があるなど、治療が難しい患者を診療している病院では生存率が低くなる傾向があるということで、東尚弘 がん登録センター長は、「データは単純には比較できないが、患者が病院の特徴を把握し、主治医と相談する際の参考にはできる。データの精度が高まり、調査態勢が確立しつつあるので、今後のがん治療の評価や改善につなげたい」と話しています。

Translation

The National Cancer Center announced that the latest 5-year survival rate, which showed how much cancer patients were saved by treatment, would be 66.1%. Survival data were also published at each hospital, and the National Cancer Center said it would be a reference for patients to know the characteristics of the hospital.

The National Cancer Center analyzed data from approximately 570,000 cancer patients treated at 277 cancer base hospitals throughout the country for the two years until 2010.

As a result, the overall survival rate after diagnosis was 66.1%, showing how much cancer patients were saved by treatment.

By type of cancer, the highest was prostate cancer 98.6%, followed by breast cancer 92.5%, endometrial cancer 82.1%, cervical cancer 75.3%, the popular colorectal cancer 72.9%, stomach cancer 71.6%, and bladder cancer 69.5%.

On the other hand, the lowest was 9.6% for pancreatic cancer, followed by 40% for liver cancer, 40.6% for lung cancer, and 44.4% for esophageal cancer.

In addition, for five types of cancer, such as colorectal cancer and stomach cancer, the survival rate for each stage was published for each hospital and could be viewed in the National Cancer Center website.

According to hospital-specific data, about chronic disease other than cancer, there was a tendency for the low survival rate in hospitals that treated patients who were difficult to treat. On this Naohiro Higashi Director of Cancer Registration Center said “Although it cannot be simply compared, it can be used as a reference, a patient can understand the characteristics of a hospital and consults with an attending physician. The accuracy of data is increasing, and the investigation system is in the processing of being established. I want to be connected to future cancer treatment evaluation and improvement. "

     I think an average recovery of 66% has not much meaning unless we look into its individual components. It is interesting to note that in Japan  prostate cancer has the highest recovery rate of 98.6%, followed by breast cancer 92.5% and endometrial cancer 82.1%.

Doctoral degree holders - among 7 major countries only Japan is continuing to decline

Recently the NHK News On-line reported the following:

博士号取得者 主要７か国で日本だけ減少傾向続く

2019年8月9日 17時25分

大学で博士号を取得した人がどれくらいいるか、主要７か国で分析すると、日本は2016年度、人口100万人当たり118人で、日本だけ減少傾向が続いていて、文部科学省は研究力が低下している原因の１つではないかと指摘しています。

文部科学省の科学技術・学術政策研究所は、2016年度に日本やイギリス、それにドイツなど主要７か国の大学で博士号を取得した人数を分析して比較しました。

その結果、日本の大学で博士号を取得した人数は１万5040人で、人口100万人当たりでは118人と、いずれもおよそ10年前から減少傾向が続いています。

日本以外の人口100万人当たりの博士号取得者数は、イギリスが最も多い360人で、続いてドイツの356人と、どちらも日本の３倍余りとなっています。

また、韓国は271人と2000年度の131人から２倍余りに大幅に増加していて、日本のおよそ2.3倍になっています。

文部科学省によりますと、主要７か国では日本だけが減少傾向が続いていて、日本の研究力が低下している原因の１つではないかと指摘しています。

科学技術・学術政策研究所は「海外では博士号を取得する前から給料をもらいながら研究するシステムが整っているが、日本ではそうした取り組みが少ないことが影響しているとみられる」と話しています。

Translation

According to an analysis focusing on seven major countries on how many major universities had handed out doctoral degrees, Japan had 118 people per million in fiscal 2016, and was on a declining trend. The Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology pointed out that one of the causes was a decline in research capabilities.

The National Institute of Science and Technology Policy, which was under the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, compared the number of people obtained doctoral degrees  in universities in seven major countries such as Japan, the UK, and Germany in FY2016.

As a result, the number of doctoral degree holders at Japanese universities was 15,040, and was equal to 118 people per million population, both of which were on a decreasing trend since about 10 years ago.

The number of doctoral degrees per million population outside Japan was the largest in the UK with 360 people, followed by 356 in Germany, both of which were more than three times as many as Japan.

In Korea, there were 271 people, a large increase of more than double from 131 people in 2000, about 2.3 times that of Japan.

According to the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Japan continued to decline among the seven major countries, indicating that one of the reasons was a decline in Japan's research capabilities.

The National Institute of Science and Technology Policy said, “Overseas, there is a system for conducting research while getting a salary before acquiring a doctorate, but in Japan it seems that it is influenced by the fact there are few such efforts.”

              So, should the Japanese government pump more money into the field of research in the future? I am wondering whether the number of PhD is directly related the amount of efforts being put into doing research in a country.

         

US - Sales of bulletproof rucksack increased in preparation for the new semester, successive shootings noted

Recently CNN.co.jp reported the following:

新学期控え防弾リュックの売り上げ急増、相次ぐ銃乱射受け　米国

2019.08.09 Fri posted at 16:45 JST

  新学期を控えた米国で、通学のための防弾リュックの売り上げが急増している/courtesy TuffyPacks

Bullet proof  backpacks (Source: CNN)

（ＣＮＮ） 米国で新学期を前に相次いだ銃乱射事件を受け、子どもに防弾リュックを買い与える保護者が急増している。ＣＮＮが過去１０年の事件について検証した結果、学校での銃乱射は増加していることが判明。幼い子どもを持つ親の不安は特に大きい。

そうした不安に応えて、ガードドッグ・セキュリティー、ブレット・ブロッカー、タフィパックといった各社が防弾リュックを売り出した。いずれも今回の銃乱射事件後に売り上げが激増しているという。

ブレット・ブロッカーは１２年前、３３人の死者を出したバージニア工科大学の銃乱射を受けて、ジョー・カラン氏が創設した。

警官だったカラン氏は、学校に通う２人の子どもたちのため、防弾パネルを入れたリュックを製作。クラスメートの親からも依頼されるようになり、同社を創業した。

同社のウェブサイトで販売されている防弾リュックの価格は１６０～４９０ドル（１万７０００～５万２０００円）。ほとんどは防弾パネルが背面に縫い込まれている。先週発生した銃乱射事件以来、売り上げは３倍に増えたという。

ガードドッグ・セキュリティーは２０１３年から防弾リュックを売り出し、２０１８年からはオフィス・デポなどの大手小売りチェーンでも扱うようになった。

タフィパックのスティーブ・ネアモア最高経営責任者（ＣＥＯ）は、学校教員の娘から、銃乱射に備えた避難訓練が学校で頻繁に行われていると聞き、２０１５年に同社を創業した。

同社の防弾リュックを買い求める客は、子どもの身を案じる父母または祖父母が約９５％を占める。

「銃撃事件が起きると、その後数日から数週間は売り上げが激増する」とネアモア氏は言い、先週の売り上げはほぼ４倍になったことを明らかにした。

Translation

(CNN) In the United States, the number of parents who had purchased bulletproof backpacks for their children had increased rapidly following a series of shootings before the new semester. As a result of CNN's examination of incidents over the past 10 years, it was found that school shootings were increasing. Parents with young children were particularly worried.

In response to these concerns, companies such as Guard Dog Security, Bullet Blocker, and Tuffy Pack had launched bulletproof backpacks. In all cases, sales were increasing rapidly after the shooting.

Brett Blocker was founded by Joe Curran 12 years ago after shooting at the Virginia Tech which killed 33 people.

Karan, a police officer, made a backpack with bulletproof panels for two children attending school. The company was founded by the parents of classmates.

The price of bulletproof backpacks sold on the company's website ranged from $ 160 to $ 490 (¥ 17,000 to ¥ 52,000). Most bulletproof panels were sewn on the back. Since the shooting last week, sales had tripled.

Guarddog Security had been selling bulletproof backpacks since 2013, and since 2018 it had been handled by major retail chains such as Office Depots.

Tuffy Pack CEO Steve Naremore founded the company in 2015 after hearing from his school teacher's daughter that evacuation drills were often conducted at school.

About 95% of the customers who purchased the company's bulletproof backpack were parents or grandparents who were concerned about their children.

“When a shootout happens, sales will increase exponentially over the next few weeks,”  Naremore said, revealing that last week's sales had almost quadrupled.

       So, parents of school students in the US were under constant fears that shootings can break out at anytime in schools.

China GDP doubles by 2020, yellow light flashing as April-June touched lower limit of 6.2%

Recently the Nihon Keizai Shimbun electronic version reported the following:

中国GDP、20年倍増に黄信号　4～6月下限の6.2%

中国・台湾

2019/7/15 17:15日本経済新聞　電子版

China's quarterly growth rate (Source Nikkei)

【北京=原田逸策】中国の2019年4～6月期の実質成長率は前年同期比6.2%となった。20年の国内総生産（GDP）を10年比で倍増する目標の達成には19～20年に平均6.2%の成長が必要で、その「下限」に落ちて黄信号がともった。年後半の下押し圧力は高まりそうで、習近平（シー・ジンピン）指導部の対応が焦点になる。

4～6月期の成長率は1～3月期より0.2ポイント縮小し、リーマン・ショック直後の09年1～3月期（6.4%）を下回って四半期として統計を遡れる1992年以降で最低となった。長引く貿易戦争で輸出と投資が低迷した。年ベースでは天安門事件後で経済制裁を受けていた90年の3.9%以来の低水準となる。

中国経済は19年1～3月期に1年ぶりに成長率の縮小が止まったが、再び減速に転じた。4月1日から付加価値税にあたる増値税の税率を下げたため、税負担を抑えようと3月末までに生産し、4月以降に出荷する動きが広がった。3月の工業生産が高い伸びとなって成長をかさ上げした特殊要因は、4～6月期にはげ落ちた。

6.2%も「上げ底」の面がある。統計局によると1～6月の成長率のうち、輸出から輸入を差し引いた外需の貢献が1.3ポイントに達した。輸出は横ばいだったが、内需低迷で輸入は4%も減り、貿易黒字が拡大した。中国人旅行客の「爆買い」も陰り、サービス貿易の赤字も縮小した。外需の貢献は18年1～6月はマイナス0.7ポイントだったので「内需低迷」が2ポイントも成長を押し上げた。

輸出低迷は製造業の生産や投資に響く。上半期の工業生産は6%増で1～3月より0.5ポイント減速した。とくに輸出主体の外資企業の伸びは1%にとどまった。生産全体の勢いを示す発電量も3%増と力強さがない。自動車と携帯電話がいずれもマイナスで、米国が追加関税をかけたロボットの生産台数も10%減った。

投資も伸びていない。1～6月の固定資産投資の伸びは5.8%で1～3月より縮小した。みずほ総合研究所の三浦祐介主任研究員は「製造業の投資が3%増と引き続き振るわないほか、景気下支えのインフラ投資も減速しており（減税などの）政策効果が十分に出ていない」と話す。

消費も力強さがない。1～6月の小売売上高（社会消費品小売総額）は前年同期比8.4%増え、伸び率は1～3月から0.1ポイント拡大した。国家統計局の毛盛勇報道官は「消費の伸びは加速した」と胸を張ったが、幅広く数字を集めるとむしろ消費のもろさが浮かぶ。

▼…1～6月の自動車販売台数12%減▼1～6月の映画の興行収入3%減、観客数10%減▼主要小売業5千社の1～5月の売上高2%増――。小売売上高の伸びも「7月からの排ガス規制を前に車の在庫を売り切った」（毛氏）特殊要因が押し上げた面がある。

消費低迷の背景には雇用不安がある。1～6月の都市部の新規雇用は737万人で前年同期比2%減った。少子化で18～30歳の若者が毎年1千万人減っているのも重荷になっている。

中国共産党は12年の党大会で20年までのGDP倍増の長期目標を決めた。19～20年に平均6.2%の成長が必要だ。19年の政府の成長目標は「6～6.5%」だが、長江証券の伍戈首席エコノミストは最近のリポートで「最低ラインは6.2%前後と広く受け止められている」と指摘した。

1～6月の成長率は6.3%なのでまだ上回っているものの、野村国際の陸挺・中国チーフエコノミストは「下半期の経済の下押し圧力をみくびってはいけない」と警鐘を鳴らす。

とくに懸念されるのが不動産だ。1～6月の不動産投資は11%増と堅調だが、販売面積は2%減った。ここ数年、地方都市の不動産売買を押し上げた「棚改」と呼ぶ再開発事業の規模が19年は前年比で半減し、年後半は地方都市の不動産市場の足を引っ張りかねない。足元では住宅バブルの崩壊を懸念し、当局が再び不動産業界への融資を締めつけている。

習指導部は当面、3月に打ち出した2兆元（約32兆円）規模の大規模減税の効果を見極める構えだ。ある経済官庁幹部は「大規模な経済対策は打たないだろう」と話す。いったん落ち着いた債務問題が再燃しかねないからだ。貿易戦争の出口が見えないなか、どこまで景気が持ちこたえられるのか。その行方は世界経済の波乱要因にもなる。

Translation

China / Taiwan

2019/7/15 17:15 Nihon Keizai Shimbun electronic version

[Beijing = Harada Issei] China's real growth rate for the April-June period of 2019 was 6.2% compared with the same period of the previous year. To achieve a target of doubling GDP in 2020 over 2010 it would require an average growth of 6.2% in 2019-20, now it fell to its “lower limit” and a yellow light was on. Downward pressure in the latter half of the year was likely to increase, the response of Xi Jinping's leadership would be the focus.

The growth rate in the April-June period decreased by 0.2 points from the January-March period. It was the lowest since 1992, when statistics were traced back to the quarters that was below the 2009 January-March quarter (6.4%) that was seen immediately after the Lehman shock. Exports and investment were sluggish in the prolonged trade war. On a yearly basis, it was the lowest level since 1990, standing at 3.9% when it was subjected to economic sanctions after the Tienanmen incident.

China's economy growth in 2019 January to March stopped shrinking for the first time after a year, but it began to slow down again. Since the rate of VAT, a value-added tax, was lowered starting from April 1, production had been expanded up to the end of March due to reduced tax burdens, and also there had been a movement to ship since April. The special factors that boosted growth due to high industrial production in March fell off in the April-June period.

6.2% had an “overstatement” aspect. According to the Statistics Bureau, out of this growth rate from January to June, the contribution of external demand minus exports reached 1.3 points. Exports were flat, but imports fell 4% due to sluggish domestic demand, and the trade surplus expanded. The deficit in service trade had also shrunk due to the “explosive purchase” of Chinese tourists. In January-June 2018 the contribution of external demand was minus 0.7 points, so “stagnation in domestic demand” boosted growth by 2 points.

Sluggish export affected production and investment in the manufacturing industry. The first half year industrial production increased by 6%, down 0.5 points from January to March. In particular, the growth of export-oriented foreign companies was only just 1%. The amount of power generation, which indicated the momentum of the overall production, merely increased by 3% which was not strong. Both automobiles and mobile phones were in the negative, and the number of robots that the US had imposed additional tariffs also decreased by 10%.

Investment had not increased. Fixed asset investment growth from January to June was 5.8%, a decline compared to January to March. Yusuke Miura, Senior Researcher of Mizuho Research Institute said that “while manufacturing industry investment failed to continue to increase by 3%, infrastructure investment to support the economy also has been slowing down (such as tax cuts), and policy effects have not been fully demonstrated.”

Consumption was not strong. Retail sales from January to June (total retail sales of consumer goods) increased by 8.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 0.1 points from January to March. While the National Bureau of Statistics spokesman Mao Shengyong felt proud in that “The growth of consumption has accelerated,” yet when collecting a wide range of figures, it had revealed the fragility of consumption.

▼ ... Decrease in vehicle sales by 12% from January to June ▼ Decrease in box office revenue by 3% from January to June, decrease of audiences by 10% ▼ Increase by 2% in sales in 5,000 major retailers from January to May ---. The increase in retail sales had also been boosted by a special factor of “to sold out car inventory before the emission regulations to start from July” (Mr. Mao).

Employment concerns were behind the sluggish consumption. New jobs in urban areas from January to June were 7.37 million, down 2% year-on-year. That the number of youths aged 18 to 30 was declining by 10 million every year due to declining birthrate had become a burden.

The Chinese Communist Party set a long-term goal of doubling GDP at 2020 during the 2012 party convention. An average growth of 6.2% would be required in 2019-20. The government's growth target for 2019 was “6 to 6.5%,” but the chief economist at Yangtze Securities pointed out that “the lowest line is widely accepted as at around 6.2%” in a recent report.

Although the growth rate from January to June was 6.3% which was still above the line, Nomura International's Lu Ting, the China chief economist warned that “the downward pulling pressure on the economy in the second half year must not belittled”.

Of particular concern was the real estate. Real estate investment from January to June was strong with an increase of 11%, but sales area decreased by 2%. In recent years, the scale of the redevelopment project the so called “Housing reform”, which was used to boost real estate buying and selling in local cities, was halved in 2019 when compared with the previous year. It could also pull the leg of the real estate market in local cities in the second half of the year. The authorities were tightening loans to the real estate industry again because they were concerned about the collapse of the housing bubble.

For the time being, Xi’s Guidance Department was ready to determine the effects of its large-scale tax cut of 2 trillion yuan (about 32 trillion yen) launched in March. An executive of an economic agency said, “We will not take major economic measures.” This was because temporally settled debt problem could be reignited. How far could the economy hold on without seeing an exit of the trade war? That outcome became a turbulent factor of the world economy.

          This report gives a very detailed account in showing how China is having a slowing down economy. Good job.