Overseas companies - a selling market for Japanese stock in 2018, the first time in 31 years

Recently the Nihon Keizai Shimbun On-line reported the following:

海外勢、日本株31年ぶり売越額に　18年度

日銀が同額相殺、売り買い拮抗

2019/4/4 18:00

海外投資家が日本株の売りを膨らませている。2018年度の売越額は約5兆6300億円と、31年ぶり高水準となった。米中貿易戦争などを背景に世界経済の先行きに慎重姿勢を強めたためだ。ただ日銀がほぼ同額（約5兆6500億円）の買いで相殺し、売り買いが拮抗。海外勢の売りを日銀が一手に受け止めるいびつな構図が鮮明になっている。

東京証券取引所が4日発表した投資部門別売買動向をもとに集計した。海外勢の売越額はバブル経済の本格化で日本株の上昇が続いた1987年度以来の高水準となる。売り越しは2年連続。

海外勢の売りが膨らんだ最大の要因は、世界景気の減速への警戒だ。日本株は輸出型の製造業が多く、世界景気の動向に左右されやすい。米中貿易戦争や中国経済の減速など先行き不透明感が強まるなか、海外勢が日本株の投資判断を下げる例が相次いだ。

世界最大の資産運用会社、米ブラックロックは18年7月に、日本株の投資スタンスを「強気」から「中立」に約1年8カ月ぶりに変更した。

世界3位の資産運用会社、米ステート・ストリート・グローバル・アドバイザーズは、米中貿易戦争の解決の道筋が見えないことなどを理由に、リスク資産である株式そのものに対する投資割合を18年10～12月に引き下げた。このうち日本株についても円高リスクなどを理由に19年に入ってから投資判断を「中立」から「やや弱気」に引き下げている。

こうした海外勢の売りを日本株の上場投資信託（ETF）買いで吸収したのが日銀だ。日銀は「リスクプレミアムの縮小」を目的に、日経平均がおおむね1万円を下回っていた10年にETFを買い始めた。購入額は当初4500億円だった。16年には6兆円とする方針を打ち出した。

日銀のETF買い入れ額を集計すると、18年度は5兆6500億円に及ぶ。保有残高は3日時点の推計で、約29兆円と、東証1部の時価総額（約600兆円）の5%弱を占めるもようだ。

日銀はETFの大規模な購入を通じて資産価格の上昇や個人消費の活性化を促し、物価上昇につなげる効果を見込む。だが、中央銀行が直接株高を支える異例の政策はリスクも大きい。

日銀の雨宮正佳副総裁は3月、国会で「日経平均株価が1万8000円程度を下回ると保有ETFの時価が簿価を下回る」との試算を示した。足元の相場水準からはまだ距離があるが、ひとたび株安局面に転じて日銀の自己資本が毀損する事態になれば、通貨の信認も揺らぎかねない。

Translation 

Overseas investors were increasing selling Japanese stocks. The amount of sales in fiscal year 2018 was about 5,630 billion yen, a 31-year high.  Against the background of a US-China trade war and other factors caution about the future of the world economy was becoming strong. However, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) offset it by buying in almost the same amount (approximately 5.65 trillion yen) and buying and selling were offsetting each other. The imbalance picture that the BOJ singled-handedly taking up the sale from foreigners was clear at a glance.

Based on investment trends worked out by investment sector announced on the 4th by the Tokyo Stock Exchange, the recent amount of overseas sales had been high, counting from since 1987 when Japanese stocks continued to rise with a bubble economy in earnest. The selling out was two years in a row.

The biggest factor behind the foreigner’s sale was an alert to a slowdown in the global economy. There were many export-type manufacturers in Japanese stocks, and they were easily influenced by trends in the global economy. With an uncertainty in the outlook such as the US-China trade war and the slow going of the Chinese economy, there had been a series of cases where foreigners had scaled down the decision to invest in Japanese stocks.

BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, changed the stance on Japanese stocks from "bully" to "neutral" in July 2018 for the first time in about one year and eight months.

State Street Global Advisors, the third largest asset manager in the world, had from October to December 2018 reduced the investment ratio of stocks with risky asset for reasons such as lack of a clear path to resolve the US-China trade war.  Among them, they also lowered their investment judgment on Japanese stocks from "neutral" to "slightly bearish" after 2019 because of a risk of yen appreciation.

The Bank of Japan absorbed these foreign sales by buying in the Japanese stock exchange-traded funds (ETFs). The Bank of Japan began buying ETFs in 2010 when the Nikkei average was generally below 10,000 yen,  it served the aim as " a premium for risks reduction." The initial purchase amount was 45 billion yen. It announced a policy to set it at 6 trillion yen in 2016.

The total amount of ETF purchases by the BOJ amounted to 5.65 trillion yen in FY2006. The balance of holdings was estimated to be about 29 trillion yen as of the 3rd, representing nearly 5% of the market capitalization (about 600 trillion yen) of the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange.

The Bank of Japan boosted asset prices and stimulated consumer spending through large-scale purchases of ETFs and it was expected to lead to a rising prices of commodities. However, the exceptional policy that a central bank directly supported share appreciation was also risky.

In March, the National Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Masatoshi Amamiya stated in the National Assembly that "If the Nikkei Stock Average falls below about 18,000 yen, the market value of ETFs held will fall below the book value." Although there was still a distance from the current market level, yet once the stock market turned into a downturn the BOJ's equity capital could be damaged, and currency confidence might also fluctuate.

     So, the Japanese government is directly supporting the share prices of many Japanese companies.