Recently the Nihon Keizai Shimbun Electronic Edition
reported the following:
公示地価、4年連続上昇 地方の住宅地もプラス
経済
2019/3/19 16:50日本経済新聞 電子版
国土交通省が19日発表した2019年1月1日時点の公示地価は、商業・工業・住宅の全用途（全国）で1.2%のプラスと4年連続で上昇した。1991年のピーク時から4割程度まで戻した。地方圏は2年連続の上昇で地方の住宅地は27年ぶりにプラスに転じた。低金利環境が不動産投資や個人の住宅取得を下支えする一方、過熱気味な都心の一部は伸び率が鈍化し一服感も見られる。
商業地は2.8%上昇と、18年の1.9%から上げ幅を拡大。東京、名古屋、大阪の三大都市圏は5.1%上昇し、近年の伸び率としてはリーマン・ショック直前の08年に次ぐ高い水準だ。
地方の中枢都市はさらに高い伸びを示した。商業地では、札幌、仙台、広島、福岡の4市の平均上昇率が9.4%に達した。県庁所在地などの都市部や、訪日外国人客らが集まる地域が上昇率が高い。トップはスノーリゾートが集積するニセコ周辺の北海道倶知安町内で58.8%だった。
住宅地の上昇の支えは低金利だ。近年の地価下落で値ごろ感が生まれ、需要が再び盛んになった。企業が人手不足などで賃上げを進めていることも、個人の住宅取得への意欲を高めている。地方の中枢都市が高値をつけ始めたことで、周辺地域の需要に上昇が波及しつつある。佐賀県鳥栖市は福岡市へのアクセスの良さも評価され、住宅地は2年連続で上昇した。
全用途のピーク時の91年を起点として変動率をもとに指数化して試算したところ、19年の価格は91年の約40%の水準まで戻した。底値の15年と比べると2%程度上昇。13年に底値だった東京圏では8%ほど上がった。
伸びが続く地価だが、2ケタの伸びを記録したバブル期に比べれば上昇率は小さい。東京など大都市圏の商業地の地価はバブル期の2～3割程度の水準。「実需の裏付けがある投資」（国交省）という点も好調な上昇を後押しする。
それでも、過熱気味な東京都心では一服感もみてとれる。都心5区（千代田、中央、港、新宿、渋谷）の最高価格地点を見ると、千代田を除いて伸び率が鈍化した。過熱感を警戒し、けん引役であった海外の投資マネーは退潮が鮮明になりつつある。新築分譲マンション市場でも首都圏では価格の高止まりを受けて販売が減速している。
Translation
The official land price as of January first 2019, as announced
by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism on January 2019,
had been rising for four consecutive years with an up of 1.2% for all
commercial, industrial, and residential usage (nationwide). It returned to
about 40% of the peak at 1991. The rural area turned positive for the first
time in 27 years with a rise in the second consecutive year. While the low
interest rate environment underpinned real estate investment and private
housing acquisition, in some overheated
urban areas a feeling of slowing down could be felt.
Commercial land rose 2.8%, rising from 1.9% in 2018. The
three major metropolitan areas of Tokyo, Nagoya and Osaka had risen by 5.1%,
and the recent growth rate was the second highest since 2008, just before the
Lehman shock.
Regional central cities had shown even higher growth. In
commercial areas, the average rate of increase for the four cities of Sapporo,
Sendai, Hiroshima and Fukuoka reached 9.4%. The rate of increase was high in
urban areas such as the prefecture capital, and in areas where foreign
visitors in Japan chose to stay. The top was 58.8% in area around Niseko of
Kutchan-cho in Hokkaido where snow resorts concentrated.
Low interest rate supported the rise in residential areas.
The recent decline in land prices had made the market more affordable, and
demand had flourished again. The fact that companies were raising wages due to
labor shortages was also raising the motivation for individuals to acquire
housing. As regional key cities began to hit high prices, demand in the
surrounding area also went up. The city of Tosu in Saga Prefecture was valued
for its good access to Fukuoka City, and the residential area had risen for two
consecutive years.
When an estimate was done based on the rate of change
starting from 1991 which was at the peak time for all usage, the price for 2019
had returned to the level of about 40% of 1991. It was about 2% higher than the
bottom price of 2015. It rose about 8% in the Tokyo area which had bottomed out
in 2013.
While land prices continue to grow, the rate of increase was
smaller than in the bubble season which recorded double-digit growth. Land
prices in commercial areas of metropolitan areas such as Tokyo were around
20-30% of the bubble period. The "investment backed by real demand"
(Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism) also supported a
strong rise.
Still, in overheated Tokyo area, you could see a pause.
Looking at the highest price point in the five wards of central Tokyo (Chiyoda,
Chuo, Minato, Shinjuku, Shibuya), the growth rate slowed down except for
Chiyoda. For overseas investment money, which had been wary of overheating and was
a driving force, a recession was becoming clearer. Even in the newly built
condominium market, sales had been sluggish in the Tokyo metropolitan area due
to the high price.
I am
interested in knowing whether the 2020 Olympics had played a role in the recent
property market growth in central Tokyo.
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