Recently the Nihon Keizai Shimbun Electronic Edition reported
the following:
通信インフラシェア、ファーウェイ2位に転落
エレクトロニクス 中国・台湾
2019/3/29 21:30日本経済新聞 電子版
【北京=多部田俊輔、深圳=川上尚志】2018年の携帯通信インフラの世界シェアで中国の通信機器最大手、華為技術（ファーウェイ）が2位に順位を落とし、スウェーデンのエリクソンが2年ぶりに首位を奪還したことがわかった。次世代通信規格「5G」に限ると、ファーウェイは4位だった。トランプ米政権によるファーウェイ製品の排除が通信インフラ市場の勢力図にも影響を及ぼし始めた。
英調査会社IHSマークイットがまとめた18年の基地局などの売上高シェアで、エリクソンが29.0%と17年比2.4ポイント上昇する一方、ファーウェイは26.0%と同1.9ポイント低下した。
ファーウェイのシェア低下について、IHSマークイットは「貿易戦争の影響で一部新規購入を控えた国があった」と分析する。現行の「4G」から5Gへの移行期という要因も重なり、世界全体の市場規模は305億ドル（約3兆4千億円）と17年比18%縮小した。
地域別にみると、北米ではエリクソンが68%と圧倒的なシェアを占める半面、ファーウェイは6%にとどまった。一方、ファーウェイは欧州・中東・アフリカで40%、アジア太平洋で30%と、17年よりそれぞれ2ポイントシェアを拡大した。「ファーウェイは（米国による排除活動の）影響のない地域で販売を強化したため、シェアの下落は小幅にとどまった」（IHSマークイット）
5G通信機器の推定出荷台数シェアではエリクソンが24%でトップ。サムスン電子（21%）、ノキア（20%）が続き、ファーウェイ（17%）は4位だった。ファーウェイは5G関連の特許出願件数では先行したが、米国が5Gを標的にファーウェイを排除したことがビジネスに影響を及ぼしているとみられる。
米国は18年8月、政府機関のファーウェイ製品などの使用を禁じる国防権限法を制定した。同盟国にも不使用を呼びかけ、オーストラリアはファーウェイの5G参入禁止を決定。日本も政府調達から中国製を事実上締め出す指針を示した。
欧州連合（EU）は加盟国の判断に委ねる勧告を出したが、ドイツは独自の基準を作るとともに米国とも協議する方針を示している。多くの国がこれから5G向けの設備投資に本格的に着手する見通しで、各国の指針が今後のシェア争いを左右する可能性もある。
ファーウェイが29日発表した18年12月期決算は売上高が前の期比19.5%増の7212億元（約11兆9000億円）と過去最高を更新する一方、基地局など通信会社向け事業の売上高は1.3%減の2940億元に落ち込んだ。同事業の減収は「ここ最近では無かった」（ファーウェイ）という。
郭平・副会長兼輪番会長は広東省深圳の本社で開いた記者会見で「世界の通信投資の周期的な影響を受けた」と述べ、5Gへの移行期で通信会社の投資が大きく増えなかったためと強調。米国による排除方針の影響には言及を避けた。
中国の同業大手、中興通訊（ZTE）は米政府から米企業との取引を禁じる制裁を受けて半導体を調達できなくなり、業務を一時停止した。郭氏は「分断を避けるため、複数の生産計画がある」と語り、部品在庫の積み増しや調達先の分散を急ぐ考えを示した。
Translation
In 2018 Huawei, the telecommunications equipment leader in China dropped
to the second place in global share of mobile communication infrastructure. Sweden's Ericsson became the first again after two years and regained the
leadership. As for the next-generation communication standard "5G",
Huawei was fourth. The elimination of Huawei products by the Trump US
administration had begun to impact on the market power map of
telecommunications infrastructure.
Based on the share of sales of base stations etc. in 2018
compiled by a British research company IHS Markit, Ericsson's share increased
by 2.4 points to reach 29.0% compared with 2017, while Huawei decreased by 1.9
points to stand at 26.0%. Regarding the decline in Huawei's share, IHS Markit analyzed
that "some countries have refrained from making some new purchases due to
the effects of the trade war." Due to the transition period from the
current 4G to 5G, the global market size shrank from 2017 by 18% to $ 30.5 billion (approx. 3.4 trillion
yen).
By region, Ericsson had an overwhelming share of 68% in
North America, while Huawei was only 6%. On the other hand, Huawei expanded its
share by two-point since 2017 respectively to reach 40% in Europe, the Middle
East and Africa; and reached 30% in Asia-Pacific. "a fall in market
share has been modest as Huawei has strengthened sales in non-affected areas
(of US exclusion)," (IHS Markit)
Ericsson topped the list of estimated shipments of 5G
communication equipment with 24%, followed by Samsung Electronics (21%), Nokia (20%), and Huawei (17%) at fourth. Although Huawei had been ahead in the number
of patent applications related to 5G, it seemed that the US's rejection of
Huawei to target at 5G was affecting the latter’s business.
In August 18, the United States enacted a defense authority
law that prohibited the use of Huawei products in government agencies. It also
requested its allies not to use Hauwei products. Australia decided to ban
Huawei's 5G entry. Japan also disclosed a guideline to effectively shut out
Chinese merchandise from government procurement.
The European Union (EU) had issued a recommendation to leave
the decision to member states, but Germany had indicated its policy to develop
its own standards and to consult with the United States. Many countries were
expected to make full-fledged capital investments on 5G from now on, and the
guidelines of individual countries might possibly influence the future
competition in market share.
Huawei's financial results announced on the 29th
showed a net sale increased of 19.5% to 721.2 billion yuan (about 11.90
trillion yen) from the previous term. While it reached a record high, for telecommunications
companies such as base stations business, sales fell 1.3% to 294.0 billion yuan.
It was said that the decline in sales in the same business was "not
recently" (Huawei).
Guo Ping, vice-chairman and co-chairman at a news conference
held at company headquarters in Shenzhen of Guangdong Province said, "the
company was affected by global telecommunications investment cycles" and emphasized
the reasons not to increase significantly investment in telecommunications
companies during the transition to 5G. He declined to mention about the impact
of the US exclusion policy.
An industry leader in the same trade in China, Zhong Xing
Tong (ZTE), suspended the business because it could not procure semiconductors due
to sanctions issued by the US government which prohibited it doing business
with US companies. Mr. Guo said, "There are multiple production plans to
avoid disruptions," and it was urgent to build up parts inventory and to diversify
suppliers.
I hope
the trade war centering around 5G between China the US would end soon.
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