日本經濟預測

Recently the NHK News reported the following:

IMF=国際通貨基金は、日本経済について分析した報告書を公表し、來年にはプラス成長に戻るものの、２年後の２０１１年まで、経済活動の停滯につながりかねないデフレの状態が続くという見通しを示しました.
IMFは１５日、日本経済の現状や先行きについて分析したことしの年次報告書を 公表しました。それによりますと日本のことしのGDP＝国内総生產は、前の年比べて６％ のマイナスとなるものの、來年には１．７５％プラス成長に戻ると予測しています。その一方、「インフレは２０１１年までマイナスにとどまると予想される」として、物価が下がり、経済活動の停滯につながりかねないデフレの状態が、２年後まで続くという見通しを示しました。 また、雇用状況の惡化や不安定な 金融市場の影響で「見通しはきわめて 不透明 だ」としています。そのうえで、IMFの年次報告書では、日本は財政赤字の拡大と內需主導型の成長への転換の遅れから「２００７年には１．７５％だった潜在成長率が１％に近づきうる」と警告し, 農業やサービス分野での規制緩和や,対日投資の促進など構造改革の必要性を指摘しています。

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) had released their report that analysed Japan's economy. It predicted that although there would be a return to positive growth in the coming year, in two years time in 2011, the economic activities would stand still and the deflation situation would continue. IMF on 15th of this month released its annual economic report on Japan regarding the current and coming economic situation. It said that this year although Japan would have a minus 6% in GDP when compared with the previous year, in the coming year it would be a plus of 1.75%. Also, it was expected that inflation would cease in 2011 and then stay at a minus. By then, commodity prices would go down, economic activities would stall due to deflation. Also, due to the effect of deteriorating employment situation and unsettle financial market, the future is extremely unclear. This IMF annual report gave warning that due Japan's budget deficit increase and delay in increasing domestic needs, the latent growth rate was near 1%. The report also pointed out the need for structural changes such as relaxing regulating rules in agriculture and service sectors, and to promote investment in Japan.

In view of the above IMF report, I think Japan has good reason to worry about their economic future.