China's GDP would double, even if it could merely achieve a 5% level next year - with statistics corrections

Recently Nihon Keizai Shimbun electronic version reported the following:

中国GDP倍増、来年5%台でも達成 統計修正で

米中衝突 中国・台湾

2019/12/9 18:00日本経済新聞　電子版

【北京=原田逸策】中国共産党が掲げる2020年の国内総生産（GDP）を10年比で倍増する目標について、20年のGDP成長率が6%を割っても達成できる可能性が高いことがわかった。11月に公表した経済センサス調査を受け、過去に遡ってGDPの数値を改定するためだ。10日に始まる経済分野の重要会議、中央経済工作会議での議論にも影響しそうだ。

物価変動を考慮した実質GDPを「10年比2倍にする」との目標は12年の党大会で決めた。20年に82兆4千億元（約1270兆円）を上回ればよく、18年の実質GDPは73兆1千億元。19～20年に平均6.2%成長すれば達成できる計算だ。

19年の成長率は1～9月に前年同期比6.2%だが、7～9月期は6%まで減速した。多くのエコノミストは20年の成長率が6%を割ると予想しており、目標の達成が危ぶまれていた。

援軍は11月に公表した5年に1度の経済センサスだ。零細企業の把握が進むため、調査後にGDPを改定してきた。今回は18年分の名目GDPを2.1%上方修正した。

国家統計局は今後、実質GDPも過去に遡って上方修正する見通しだ。多くのエコノミストは過去に遡るほどGDPの修正幅は小さくなる、とみる。倍増目標の基準年となる10年の上方修正幅が18年より小さければ、目標達成には有利に働く。

中国の興業証券の試算では、実質GDPを10年は0.5%、18年は1%それぞれ上方修正する場合、19年通年の成長率が6.1%ならば20年は5.8%でも目標を達成できる。いまより0.4ポイントも下がる計算だ。

共産党は10日開く中央経済工作会議で20年の経済運営方針を決める。20年の経済成長率の政府目標も議論するが、6%を下回る成長でも倍増目標を実現できるならば、無理に高めの目標を設定する必要はなくなる。

Translation

[Beijing = Hadada Misaku] The Communist Party's goal of doubling GDP in 2020 in 10 years was likely to be achieved even if the GDP growth rate in 2020 would be less than 6%.  This was because in the economic census survey announced in November, the GDP figures were revised retroactively. It was likely to affect the discussions at the Central Economic Work Conference, an important economic conference that was started on the 10th.

The goal of doubling real GDP, taking into account price fluctuations, was decided at the 2012 party convention. It just needed to exceed 82.400 billion yuan in 2020 (approximately 1270 trillion yen), as the real GDP in 2018 was 73.100 billion yuan. The calculation could be achievable if an average growth of 6.2% could be reached in 2019-20.

The growth rate in 2019 was 6.2% compared the same period of the previous year in January-September, but it slowed to 6% in July-September. Many economists expected the 2020 growth rate to fall below 6%, jeopardizing the goal.

A help was found in an economic census announced in November that was done once every five years. In order to understand micro enterprises, the GDP was revised after the survey. This time, the nominal GDP for 2018 was revised up 2.1%.

The National Bureau of Statistics was forecasting that real GDP would also be revised upward retroactively. Many economists envisioned that the extent of GDP adjustments would be smaller as they went back in time. As 2010 was the base year targeted for the doubling, if upward revision range was smaller than that of 2018, it would help maneuvering in achieving the goal.

 According to an estimate using China’s Xìngyè Securities figures, if the real GDP for 2010 was revised upward by 0.5% and for 2018 by 1%, then even if the growth rate in 2019 was 6.1%, the target of achieving a doubling could be achieved even it was 5.8% for 2020. It was a calculation with 0.4 points lower than the present.

At the Central Economic Work Conference held on the 10th the Communist Party decided the economic management policy for 2020. The government goal of economic growth for 2020 was discussed, if they could achieve the doubling target even with growth below 6%, it would not be necessary to set a higher target.

           It is interesting to note that in mainland China economic statistics could be adjusted for political needs. This is one of the many cultural differences between western countries and China in perceiving and doing things. Perhaps it may be one of the outward expressions of the so called “a socialist system with Chinese characteristics”.