中國命令政府和國有企業停用外國電腦

Recently Yahoo New on-line reported the following:

China Orders Government, State Firms to Dump Foreign PCs

Bloomberg News

Fri, May 6, 2022, 7:27 AM

(Bloomberg) -- China has ordered central government agencies and state-backed corporations to replace foreign-branded personal computers with domestic alternatives within two years, marking one of Beijing’s most aggressive efforts so far to eradicate key overseas technology from within its most sensitive organs.

Staff were asked after the week-long May break to turn in foreign PCs for local alternatives that run on operating software developed domestically, people familiar with the plan said. The exercise, which was mandated by central government authorities, is likely to eventually replace at least 50 million PCs on a central-government level alone, they said, asking to remain anonymous discussing a sensitive matter.

The decision advances China’s decade-long campaign to replace imported technology with local alternatives, a sweeping effort to reduce its dependence on geopolitical rivals such as the U.S. for everything from semiconductors to servers and phones. It’s likely to directly affect sales by HP Inc. and Dell Technologies Inc., the country’s biggest PC brands after local champion Lenovo Group Ltd. Shares of HP and Dell were both down about 2.5% in New York Friday morning.

Lenovo erased losses to climb as much as 5% on Friday in Hong Kong, while software developer Kingsoft Corp. also recouped its earlier decline to gain as much as 3.3%. On mainland Chinese exchanges, Inspur Electronic Information Industry Co., a server maker, gained 6% while peer Dawning Information Industry Co. jumped more than 4%. Inspur Software Co., an affiliate of the Inspur group, and China National Software & Service Co. both soared their daily 10% limits.

The push to replace foreign suppliers is part of a longstanding effort to wean China off its reliance on American technology -- a vulnerability exposed after sanctions against companies like Huawei Technologies Co. hammered local firms and businesses. That initiative has accelerated since 2021, when the Chinese central government quietly empowered a secretive government-backed organization to vet and approve local suppliers in sensitive areas from cloud to semiconductors.

The latest PC replacement project also reflects Beijing’s growing concerns around information security as well as a confidence in homegrown hardware: the world’s biggest laptop and server makers today include Lenovo, Huawei and Inspur Ltd., while local developers such as Kingsoft and Standard Software have made rapid strides in office software against the likes of Microsoft Corp. and Adobe Inc.

The campaign will be extended to provincial governments later and also abide by the two-year timeframe, the people said. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and State Council Information Office didn’t respond to faxed requests for comment.

What Bloomberg Intelligence Says

Lenovo could dramatically boost sales on Beijing’s order that central government agencies and state-backed companies replace foreign-branded computers, as reported by Bloomberg News. This would amount to more than 50 million PCs over the next two years. The nation’s No. 1 PC maker relies on U.S. chips, but has set up its own chip-making unit and invested in at least 15 semiconductor design firms.

- Nathan Naidu, analyst

China has been encouraging use of home-made IT products in government agencies for at least a decade, regularly barring certain products from official procurement lists. In response, U.S. IT giants such as Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co. and Microsoft have set up joint ventures with firms backed by the Chinese government, to secure orders from the richest state-owned companies.

That process has long been dogged by inadequacies in Chinese-developed software and circuitry, forcing users to rely on imported equipment. That changed in recent years, as local champions such as Inspur and Lenovo gained global market share, though their products still rely on cutting-edge American components such as semiconductors from Intel Corp. or Advanced Micro Devices Inc. As of Friday, HP-branded machines were still available for purchase on a website used by central government procurement bodies, though it’s unclear if transactions would go through.

The latest government directive is likely to cover only PC brands and software, and exclude hard-to-replace components, including microprocessors, the people said. China will mostly encourage Linux-based operating systems to replace Microsoft’s Windows. Shanghai-based Standard Software is one of the top providers of such tools, one person said.

Certain agencies, including state-owned media and cybersecurity bodies, may continue to buy advanced foreign equipment under special permits as they always have, one of the people said. But that permit system could be tightened in future, the person said.

Translation

（彭博社）- 中國已下令中央政府機構和國家支持的企業在兩年內, 用國產電腦替代外國品牌的個人電腦，這是北京迄今為止在其最敏感的機構內, 根除關鍵海外技術的最積極努力之一.

知情人士說，在為期一周的五月假期之後，工作人員被要求上交外國 PC，以換取由國內開發的操作軟件運行的本地出品。他們說，這項由中央政府當局授權的行動最終可能最終取代至少 5,000 萬台中央政府層級的個人電腦，因在討論敏感問題知情人士要求保持匿名。

這一決定推動了中國長達十年的用本地替代技術去取代進口技術的運動，這是一項全面的努力去減少其在由半導體到伺服器和手機等所有領域, 對美國等地緣政治競爭對手的依賴。這可能會直接影響惠普公司和戴爾科技公司的銷售，這兩家公司是繼中國本地聯想集團之後最大的個人電腦品牌。惠普和戴爾的股價週五早上在紐約均下跌了約 2.5%。

週五，聯想在香港收復失地，漲幅高達 5%，而軟​​件開發商金山軟件公司也收復了早些時候的跌幅，漲幅高達 3.3%。在中國大陸的交易所，服務器製造商浪潮電子信息產業股份有限公司上漲了 6%，而同行曙光信息產業股份有限公司則上漲了 4% 以上。浪潮集團的附屬公司浪潮軟件有限公司和中國軟件服務有限公司均飆升到其每日 10% 的上限。

推動取代外國供應商是中國擺脫對美國技術依賴的長期努力的一部分 - 在對華為技術公司等公司實施制裁重創當地公司和企業後，這一漏洞暴露無遺。自 2021 年以來，這一舉措加快了步伐，當時中國中央政府悄悄授權一個由政府支持的秘密機構去審查和批准從雲端到半導體等敏感領域的本地供應商。

最新的 PC 更換項目也反映了北京對日益增長的信息安全擔憂以及對國產硬件的信心：當今世界上最大的便攜式電腦和服務器製造商包括聯想、華為和浪潮有限公司。而 “金山軟件”和 “標準軟件”等本地開發商在辦公軟件上, 與微軟公司和 Adobe Inc. 等公司相比已,  已經取得了長足的進步。

知情人士說，該活動稍後將擴大到省級政府，並依從一個兩年的時間表。工業和信息化部和國務院新聞辦公室沒有回覆傳真送出的置評請求。

彭博情報說什麼

正如彭博社報導，如果北京下令中央政府機構和國家支持的公司更換外國品牌的電腦，聯想可能會大幅提升銷量。這將在未來兩年內達到超過 5,000 萬台 PC。這國家第一大個人電腦製造商依賴美國芯片，但已經建立了自己的芯片製造部門，並投資了至少 15 家半導體設計公司。

- Nathan Naidu，分析師

至少十年來，中國一直鼓勵政府機構使用國產 IT 產品，並經常將某些產品排除在官方採購清單之外。作為回應，惠普和微軟等美國 IT 巨頭與中國政府支持的公司成立了合資企業，以爭取最富有的國有企業的訂單。

這一過程長期以來一直受到中國開發的軟件和電路不足的困擾，迫使用戶依賴進口設備。近年來，這種情況發生了變化，因為浪潮和聯想等本土巨頭獲得了全球市場份額，儘管它們的產品仍然依賴於尖端的美國組件，例如英特爾公司或Advanced Micro Devices Inc.的半導體。截至週五，惠普品牌的產品仍然可以在中央政府採購機構使用的網站上購買，但尚不清楚交易是否會通過。

知情人士說，最新的政府指令可能只涵蓋個人電腦品牌和軟件，不包括微處理器等難以更換的組件。中國將主要鼓勵基於 Linux 的操作系統取代微軟的 Windows。一位知情人士說，總部位於上海的”標準軟件”是此類工具的頂級供應商之一。

其中一位知情人士說，包括國有媒體和網絡安全機構在內的某些機構可能會像往常一樣，在獲得特別許可的情況下繼續購買先進的外國設備。但該人士表示，未來可能會收緊許可證制度。

 So, China has ordered central government agencies and state-backed corporations to replace foreign-branded personal computers with domestic alternatives within two years. I think computer is only one of the many areas that China is competing with the US.

美元強勢推動世界經濟進一步放緩

Recently Yahoo New on-line reported the following:

Dollar’s Strength Pushes World Economy Deeper into Slowdown

Sat, May 14, 2022, 2:00 p.m.

(Bloomberg) -- The soaring dollar is propelling the global economy deeper into a synchronized slowdown by driving up borrowing costs and stoking financial-market volatility -- and there’s little respite on the horizon.

A closely watched gauge of the greenback has risen 7% since January to a two-year high as the Federal Reserve embarks on an aggressive series of interest-rate increases to curb inflation and investors have bought dollars as a haven amid economic uncertainty.

A rising currency should help the Fed cool prices and support American demand for goods from abroad, but it also threatens to drive up the import prices of foreign economies, further fueling their inflation rates, and sap them of capital.

That’s especially worrying for emerging economies, which are being forced to either allow their currencies to weaken, intervene to cushion their slide, or raise their own interest rates in a bid to buttress their foreign exchange levels.

Both India and Malaysia made surprise rate hikes this month. India also entered the market too to prop up its exchange rate.

Advanced economies haven’t been spared either: In the past week the euro hit a new five-year low, the Swiss franc weakened to hit parity with the dollar for first time since 2019 and Hong Kong’s Monetary Authority was forced to intervene to defend its currency peg. The yen also recently toughed a two-decade low.

“The Fed’s rapid pace of rate hikes is causing headaches for many other economies in the world, triggering portfolio outflows and currency weakness,” said Tuuli McCully, head of Asia-Pacific economics at Scotiabank.

While the combination of slowing US growth and an expected cooling in America’s inflation will ultimately see the dollar’s ascent slow -- which in turn will take pressure off other central banks to tighten -- it may take months to find that new equilibrium.

So far at least, traders are reluctant to call a peak in the dollar rally. That in part reflects bets at the end of 2021 that the greenback’s gains would fade as rate hikes were already priced in. Those views have since been shredded.

Developing economies are in danger of a “currency mismatch,” which occurs when governments, corporations or financial institutions have borrowed in US dollars and lent it out in their local currency, according to Clay Lowery, a former US Treasury assistant secretary for international affairs who’s now executive vice president at the Institute for International Finance.

Global growth will essentially flatline this year as Europe falls into recession, China slows sharply and US financial conditions tighten significantly, according to a new forecast from the IIF. Economists at Morgan Stanley expect growth this year to be less than half of the pace in 2021.

As rates continue to rise amid on-going global volatility -- from the war in Ukraine to China’s Covid lockdowns -- that has led investors to leap for safety. Economies nursing current account deficits are at risk of more volatility.

“The United States has always been a safe haven,” Lowery said. “With rising interest rates both from the Fed and from market rates, even more capital could flow into the US. And that could be damaging for emerging markets.”

Outflows of $4 billion were seen from emerging economy securities in April, according to the IIF. Emerging market currencies have tumbled and emerging-Asia bonds have suffered losses of 7% this year, more than the hit taken during the 2013 taper tantrum.

“Tighter US monetary policy will have large spillovers to the rest of the world,” said Rob Subbaraman, head of global markets research at Nomura Holdings Inc. “The real kicker is that most economies outside the US are starting in a weaker position than the US itself.”

Many manufacturers say the high costs they are facing means they aren’t getting much of a dividend from weaker currencies.

Toyota Motor Corp. forecast a 20% decline in operating profit for the current fiscal year despite posting robust annual car sales, citing an “unprecedented” rise in costs for logistics and raw materials. It said it doesn’t expect the weakened yen to deliver a “major” lift.

China’s yuan has slid as record flows of capital pull out of the country’s financial markets. For now, it remains insulated from the wider dollar effect as low inflation at home allows authorities to focus on supporting growth.

But that’s causing yet another source of fragility for developing nations used to a strong yuan offering their markets an anchor.

“The recent abrupt shift in the renminbi’s trend has more to do with China’s deteriorating economic outlook than Fed policy,” said Alvin Tan, a strategist at Royal Bank of Canada in Singapore. “But it has definitely splintered the shield insulating Asian currencies from the rising dollar and precipitated the rapid weakening of Asian currencies as a group in the past month.”

In advanced economies, weakening currencies set up a “tricky policy dilemma” for the Bank of Japan, European Central Bank and the Bank of England, Dario Perkins, chief European economist at TS Lombard in London, wrote in a recent note.

ECB Governing Council Member Francois Villeroy de Galhau noted this month that a “euro that is too weak would go against our price stability objective.”

“While domestic ‘overheating’ is mostly a US phenomenon, weaker exchange rates add to imported price pressures, keeping inflation significantly above central banks’ 2% targets,” Perkins wrote. “Monetary tightening might alleviate this problem, but at the cost of further domestic economic pain.”

Translation

(彭博社) - 高美元引起借貸成本飆升並引發金融市場波動，推動全球經濟進一步陷入同步放緩 - 而且幾乎沒有見到喘息的機會。

自 1 月份以來，一個受注重的美元指標已上漲 7% 至兩年高點，原因是美聯儲開始採取一系列激進的加息措施來抑制通脹，而投資者在經濟不確定的情況下買入美元作為避風港。

貨幣升值應有助於美聯儲降低價格並支持美國對國外商品的需求，但它也可能推高外國經濟體的進口價格，進一步推高其通貨膨脹率，並削弱它們的資金。

對於新興經濟體來說，這尤其令人擔憂，它們被迫要么讓本幣貶值，要么進行干預以緩衝跌勢，要么提高自己的利率以支撐其外匯水平。

印度和馬來西亞本月都出人意料地加息。印度也進入市場以支撐其匯率。

發達經濟體也未能倖免：過去一周歐元觸及五年新低，瑞士法郎自 2019 年以來首次跌至與美元平價，香港金融管理局被迫干預以捍衛其貨幣掛鉤。日元最近也承受了二十年來的低點。

豐業銀行亞太經濟主管 Tuuli McCully 表示： “美聯儲的快速加息讓世界上許多其他經濟體感到頭疼，引發投資組合外流和貨幣疲軟。”

雖然美國經濟增長放緩和美國通脹預期降溫最終將導緻美元升值放緩 - 這順帶會減輕其他央行收緊貨幣政策的壓力 - 但可能需要數月時間才能找到新的平衡點。

至少到目前為止，交易員不願稱美元反彈見頂。這在一定程度上反映了人們在 2021 年底押注美元的漲勢將會消退，因為加息已經被消化了。那些觀點後來被打破了。

前美國財政部負責國際事務的助理部長, 即現任國際金融研究所執行副總裁Clay Lowery 表示，發展中經濟體面臨 “貨幣錯配” 的危險，即政府、企業或金融機構借入美元並以當地貨幣借出時會發生這種情況。

根據 IIF 的一項新預測，隨著歐洲陷入衰退、中國急劇放緩以及美國金融狀況顯著收緊，今年全球增長將基本持平。摩根士丹利的經濟學家預計，今年的增長速度將不到 2021 年的一半。

在全球持續動蕩的情況下 - 從烏克蘭戰爭到中國的 Covid 封鎖 - 利率繼續上升，這導致投資者尋求安全。維持經常賬戶赤字的經濟體面臨更大波動的風險。

Lowery 說: “美國一直是避風港”; “隨著美聯儲和市場利率的利率上升，更多的資本可能會流入美國。這可能對新興市場造成損害。”

根據 IIF 的數據，4 月份新興經濟體證券流出了 40 億美元。新興市場貨幣大跌，新興亞洲債券今年下跌 7%，超過 2013 年恐慌反應期間的跌幅。

野村控股全球市場研究主管 Rob Subbaraman 表示: “美國收緊貨幣政策將對世界其他地區產生巨大波及的影响”; “真正的意外發現在於，美國以外的大多數經濟體一開始就處於比美國本身更弱的地位。”

許多製造商表示，他們面臨的高成本意味著他們沒有從貨幣貶值中獲得太多好處。

豐田汽車公司預測，儘管年度汽車銷量強勁，但本財年的營業利潤將下降 20%，理由是物流和原材料成本 “空前”上升。它表示，預計疲軟的日元不會帶來 “重大” 提振。

隨著創紀錄的資本流出中國金融市場，人民幣已經下跌。目前，它仍然不受更廣泛的美元效應的影響, 由於國內的低通脹使當局能夠專注於支持增長。

但對於習慣於強勢人民幣為其市場提供錨點的發展中國家來說，這又是另一個脆弱性來源。

加拿大皇家銀行駐新加坡策略師 Alvin Tan 表示： “最近人民幣走勢的突然轉變, 更多是由於中國經濟前景惡化有關，而不是美聯儲的政策”; “但它肯定會破壞亞洲貨幣免受美元上漲影響的屏障，並導致亞洲貨幣作為一個整體在過去一個月裡迅速走弱。”

倫敦 TS Lombard 首席歐洲經濟學家達 Dario Perkins 在最近的一份報告中寫道，在發達經濟體中，貨幣貶值給日本銀行、歐洲央行和英格蘭銀行帶來了 “棘手的政策困境” 。

歐洲央行管理委員會成員Francois Villeroy de Galhau 本月指出， “歐元太弱將違背我們的價格穩定目標。”

Perkins寫道: “雖然國內 ‘過熱’ 主要是美國的現象，但疲軟的匯率增加了進口價格壓力，使通脹率大大高於央行 2% 的目標”;  “貨幣緊縮可能會緩解這個問題，但代價是進一步加劇國內經濟痛苦。”

So, the soaring dollar is propelling the global economy deeper into a synchronized slowdown by driving up borrowing costs and stoking financial-market. That’s especially worrying for emerging economies, which are being forced to either allow their currencies to weaken, intervene to cushion their slide, or raise their own interest rates in a bid to buttress their foreign exchange levels.

 

Note: In the financial world “Taper Tantrum” refers to the 2013 collective panic reaction that triggered a spike in U.S. Treasury yields when investors learned that the Federal Reserve was slowly ending its quantitative easing (QE) program.

Chinese economy stagnated in April, sharp contraction in service sector

Recently CNN.co.jp reported the following:

中国経済、４月は停滞　サービス部門で急激な縮小

2022.05.06 Fri posted at 17:45 JST

  香港（ＣＮＮ Ｂｕｓｉｎｅｓｓ） 中国の巨大なサービス部門が先月、史上２番目となる急激なペースで縮小したことが分かった。新型コロナウイルス感染拡大抑止のためのロックダウン（都市封鎖）で各企業が打撃を被ったことが背景にある。

英ＩＨＳマークイットが５日に発表した調査結果によると、中国の経済状況の評価に使用される財新サービス業購買担当者景気指数（ＰＭＩ）の４月の数値は３６．２と、３月の４２から低下した。同指数が５０を割り込めば経済は縮小、上回れば拡大とみなされる。

サービス業は中国の国内総生産（ＧＤＰ）の半分以上、雇用の４割余りを占める。先月は製造業も縮小しており、中国経済全体が停滞に陥る月となった。

新型コロナの感染拡大が和らぎ、当局が経済被害の抑え込みに動く中、今月は状況が改善するかもしれない。それでも首都北京の大部分で厳格な制限措置が施行されるなど、エコノミストからは中国のＧＤＰについて第２四半期での縮小を予想する声も出ている。

先月よりサービス業の業績が激しく落ち込んだ月は、湖北省武漢から広がった新型コロナ第１波に見舞われた２０２０年２月しかない。この時のＰＭＩは、前月の５１．８から２６．５に急落していた。

中国企業各社はかねてエネルギーや原材料の価格高騰に苦慮していた。先月は新型コロナ感染拡大によるロックダウンが業務の行き詰まりに拍車をかけた形だ。

Translation

Hong Kong (CNN Business) China's huge service sector was found to have shrunk at the second fastest pace in history last month. The background was that individual company was hit by the lockdown (city blockage) to prevent the spread of the new coronavirus infection.

According to the results of a survey released by IHS Markit in the UK on the 5th, the April figure of the New Service Industry Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) used to evaluate the economic situation in China in April was 36.2, decreased from 42 in March. If the index fell below 50, the economy was considered to be shrinking, and if it exceeded 50, it was considered to be expanding.

The service industry accounted for more than half of China's gross domestic product (GDP) and more than 40% of employment. Last month, the manufacturing industry was also shrinking, and the entire Chinese economy was in a stagnation.

The situation might improve this month as the spread of the new corona subsided and authorities moved to curb economic damage. Still, with strict restrictions being enforced in most of the capital, Beijing, economists said they expected China's GDP to shrink in the second quarter.

The only month in which the service industry's performance fell sharply like those that started since last month was February 2020, when it was hit by the first wave of the new corona that spread from Wuhan, Hubei Province. The PMI at this time plummeted from 51.8 in the previous month to 26.5.

Chinese companies had long struggled with rising prices for energy and raw materials. Last month, lockdown due to the spread of the new corona infection spurred a business impasse.

So, in China service industry accounts for more than half of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP). It has shrunk at the second fastest pace in history last month due to city lockdown. Hopefully with the lockdown being relaxed gradually, the PMI will go up again soon.

Abnormal heat waves in India and Pakistan - "testing the limits of human survival"- experts said

Recently CNN.co.jp reported the following:

インドとパキスタンに異常な熱波、「人間の生存可能性の限界試す」と専門家

2022.05.03 Tue posted at 10:22 JST

  デリー（ＣＮＮ） インドとパキスタンが記録的な猛暑に見舞われている。気候危機の影響を大きく受ける両国は、何百万もの命が危険にさらされかねないと専門家は警鐘を鳴らしている。

インド気象庁によると、同国北西部と中部では、４月の平均最高気温が１２２年の観測史上、最高を記録。北西部で３５．９度、中部で３７．７８度に達した。

ＣＮＮの気象専門家によると、首都ニューデリーの４月の平均気温は平年を３度上回り、４０度を超える日が７日間続いた。熱波の影響で学校が休校になったり、作物に被害が出たり、エネルギー供給が逼迫（ひっぱく）したりした州もあり、当局は屋内にとどまって水分を補給するよう住民に促した。

隣国パキスタンも熱波に襲われ、同国気象庁によると、南東部シンド州のジャコババードとシビでは４月２９日の最高気温が４７度に達した。北半球の都市でこの日に観測された気温としては史上最高だった。

インドの暑さは今週には和らぐ見通し。しかし気候危機の影響で熱波は今後、さらに頻度が増して長期化すると専門家は予想、インドとパキスタンで１０億人以上が影響を受けると推測している。

気候変動に関する政府間パネル（ＩＰＣＣ）によると、インドは特に気候危機の影響が大きい。ＩＰＣＣの専門家チャンドニ・シン氏は「今回の熱波は前代未聞」と述べ、「激しさにも、到来時期にも、持続期間にも変化がみられる。専門家の予想通りだ。健康に対して連鎖的な影響が及ぶだろう」と指摘。「今回の熱波は人間の生存可能性の限界を試している」と語った。

Translation

  Delhi (CNN) India and Pakistan had been hit by record heat. Experts warned that millions of lives could be at risk in both countries, which were heavily affected by the climate crisis.

According to the Indian Meteorological Agency, in the northwestern and central parts of the country the average maximum temperature in April was the highest in 122 years of observation history. It reached 35.9 degrees in the northwest and 37.78 degrees in the middle.

According to CNN weather experts, the average temperature in April in the capital city of New Delhi was three degrees above normal, with temperatures above 40 degrees for seven days. In some states, heat waves had closed schools, damaged crops, and tightened energy supplies, and authorities urged residents to stay indoors and drink more water.

Neighboring Pakistan was also hit by heat waves, and according to the country's Meteorological Agency, the maximum temperature on April 29 reached 47 degrees Celsius in Jacobabad and Shibi in southeastern Sindh. It was the highest temperature ever observed in a city in the Northern Hemisphere on that day.

The heat in India was expected to ease this week. However, experts predicted that heat waves could become more frequent and protracted in the future as a result of the climate crisis, affecting more than a billion people in India and Pakistan.

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), India was particularly affected by the climate crisis. "This heat wave is unprecedented," said IPCC expert Chandni Singh. " As experts have expected there are changes in intensity, time of arrival, and duration. It will have a chain effect on health." He said "This heat wave is testing the limits of human’s possibility in survival".

              So, due to climate change, in the northwestern and central parts of India, the country’s average maximum temperature in April is a new record. It is impacting the daily life of the Indian.

美國鬆了一口氣: 中國似乎注意到關乎俄羅斯的警告

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

U.S. relieved as China appears to heed warnings on Russia

Tue, May 3, 2022, 2:06 AM

By Steve Holland, Trevor Hunnicutt and David Brunnstrom

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Two months after warning that Beijing appeared poised to help Russia in its fight against Ukraine, senior U.S. officials say they have not detected overt Chinese military and economic support, a welcome development in the tense U.S.-China relationship.

U.S. officials told Reuters in recent days they remain wary about China's long-standing support for Russia in general, but that the military and economic support that they worried about has not come to pass, at least for now. The relief comes at a pivotal time.

President Joe Biden is preparing for a trip to Asia later this month dominated by how to deal with the rise of China and his administration is soon to release his first national security strategy about the emergence of China as a great power.

"We have not seen the PRC provide direct military support to Russia’s war on Ukraine or engage in systematic efforts to help Russia evade our sanctions," a Biden administration official told Reuters, referring to the People's Republic of China.

"We continue to monitor for the PRC and any other country that might provide support to Russia or otherwise evade U.S. and partner sanctions."

As well as steering clear of directly backing Russia's war effort, China has avoided entering new contracts between its state oil refiners and Russia, despite steep discounts. In March its state-run Sinopec Group suspended talks about a major petrochemical investment and a gas marketing venture in Russia.

Last month, the U.S. envoy to the United Nations hailed China's abstentions on U.N. votes to condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine as a "win," underscoring how Beijing's enforced balancing act between Russia and the West may be the best outcome for Washington.

Still, China has refused to condemn Russia's actions in Ukraine and has criticized the sweeping Western sanctions on Moscow.

Trade volume between Russia and China also jumped in the first quarter, and the two declared a "no limits" partnership in February.

On Monday, Beijing's Washington embassy issued a 30-page newsletter accusing the United States of spreading "falsehoods" to discredit China over Ukraine, including through a March press leak saying Russia had sought Chinese military help. The embassy noted that U.S. officials had since said they had seen no evidence of China providing such support.

Biden himself has not spoken of China helping Russia since telling reporters in Brussels March 24 that in a phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping, he "made sure he understood the consequences."

Secretary of State Antony Blinken told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee last week China is dealing with the "significant reputational risk" of being Russia's ally and that "for now we're not seeing significant support from China for Russia's military actions."

Biden is to visit Tokyo and Seoul in what will be his first trip to Asia as president - one that won't include a stop in China. He'll meet with Indian and Australian leaders too, during a 'Quad' meeting in Tokyo.

China has made Russia a key part of its foreign policy strategy to counter the West. Biden aides were worried Xi was planning to provide direct support to Russian President Vladimir Putin as his campaign in Ukraine faced fierce setbacks, one U.S. official said.

They were heartened this has not happened so far, but Washington and its allies are continuing to closely monitor the level of assistance, the official said.

Bonnie Glaser, an Asia expert at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, said stark warnings by the U.S. and European Union have paid off so far.

"There has been consistent messaging that if China does so it will face severe consequences. It appears that so far, the Chinese have not. It is feasible that the Chinese planned to provide military assistance and changed their minds," she said.

However U.S. officials remain concerned about China's refusal to condemn Russia's actions in Ukraine and what they say is its continued parroting of Russian disinformation.

Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman said on April 21 that Beijing had "repeatedly drawn false equivalencies between Russia's war of aggression and Ukraine's self-defensive actions."

She added: "Let's be clear, China's already doing things that do not help this situation."

Translation

華盛頓（路透社）- 在警告北京似乎準備幫助俄羅斯對抗烏克蘭兩個月後，美國高級官員表示，他們沒有發現中國公開的軍事和經濟支持，這是緊張的美中關係中的一個可喜進展。

美國官員最近幾天告訴路透社，他們總體上對中國長期以來對俄羅斯的支持抱警惕態度，但他們擔心的軍事和經濟支持至少目前還沒有實現。正值關鍵時刻鬆一口氣。

拜登總統正準備本月晚些時候的亞洲之行，主題是如何應對中國的崛起​​，他的政府即將發布他的第一份關於中國崛起為大國的國家安全戰略。

一位拜登政府官員對路透社說： “我們沒有看到中國為俄羅斯對烏克蘭的戰爭提供直接的軍事支持，也沒有參與系統性的努力來幫助俄羅斯逃避我和拍檔們的製裁”, 他指的是中華人民共和國。

“我們將繼續監視中國,和任何其他可能向俄羅斯提供支持或以其他方式規避美國和合作夥伴制裁的國家。”

除了避免直接支持俄羅斯的戰爭努力外，中國還避免在其國有煉油廠與俄羅斯之間簽訂新合同，儘管折扣幅度很大。 3 月，其國營的中國石化集團暫停了有關在俄羅斯進行重大石化投資和天然氣營銷企業的談判。

上個月，美國駐聯合國特使稱讚中國在聯合國投票中棄權譴責俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭是 “勝利” ，凸顯北京在俄羅斯和西方之間採用平衡行動, 对華盛頓來說可能是最佳結果。

儘管如此，中國拒絕譴責俄羅斯在烏克蘭的行動，並批評了西方對莫斯科的全面製裁。

俄羅斯和中國之間的貿易量在第一季度也大幅增長，兩國在 2 月份宣佈建立“全方位”夥伴關係。

週一，北京駐華盛頓大使館發布了一份 30 頁的時事通訊，指責美國在烏克蘭問題上散佈“謊言”以詆毀中國，包括通過 3 月份的新聞洩密，稱俄羅斯已尋求中國的軍事幫助。大使館指出，美國官員此後表示，他們沒有證據看到中國有提供幫助。

自從拜登 3 月 24 日在布魯塞爾告訴記者，在與中國國家主席習近平通電話時，他已 “確保習近平了解後果”, 之後他本人就沒有談到中國幫助俄羅斯。

美國國務卿布林肯上週告訴參議院外交關係委員會，中國正在處理成為俄羅斯盟友的“重大聲譽風險”，“目前我們沒有看到中國對俄羅斯的軍事行動的大力支持”。

拜登將訪問東京和首爾，這將是他作為總統的首次亞洲之行 - 其中不包括在中國停留。在東京舉行的 “四方”會議期間，他還將與印度和澳大利亞領導人會面。

中國已將俄羅斯作為其對抗西方的外交政策戰略的關鍵部分。一位美國官員說，拜登的助手擔心習近平正計劃向俄羅斯總統普京提供直接支持，因為他在烏克蘭的行動面臨嚴重挫折。

這位官員說，他們感到鼓舞的是，到目前為止還沒有發生這種情況，但華盛頓及其盟友正在繼續密切關注援助的水平。

美國德國馬歇爾基金的亞洲專家 Bonnie Glaser 表示，迄今為止，美國和歐盟的嚴厲警告已見成效。

她說:“一直有持續訊息稱，如果中國這樣做，它將面臨嚴重的後果。到目前為止，中國似乎還沒有這樣做。中國可能曾計劃提供軍事援助但改變主意”。

然而，美國官員仍然對中國拒絕譴責俄羅斯在烏克蘭的行動, 以及他們所說的是繼續重覆俄羅斯的虛假信息而感到擔憂。

美國副國務卿 Wendy Sherman 4 月 21 日表示，北京 “一再將俄羅斯的侵略戰爭, 錯誤地與烏克蘭的自衛行動相提並論” 。

她補充說： “讓我們明確一點，中國已經在做出無助於現況的事。”

So, after warning Beijing not to help Russia in its fight against Ukraine, senior U.S. officials say they have not detected overt Chinese military and economic support. As China has made Russia a key part of its foreign policy strategy to counter the West, how to avoid helping Russia openly yet maintaining a good relation is a test to the wisdom of China.

US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visits Ukraine to meet with Mr. Zelensky

Recently CNN.co.jp reported the following:

ペロシ米下院議長、ウクライナを訪問　ゼレンスキー氏と会談

2022.05.02 Mon posted at 11:49 JST

  （ＣＮＮ） 米国のペロシ下院議長が４月３０日にウクライナの首都キーウ（キエフ）を訪問し、ゼレンスキー大統領と会談したことがわかった。ペロシ氏のオフィスが１日、明らかにした。ロシアがウクライナに侵攻して２カ月以上が経過したが、ペロシ氏はゼレンスキー氏と会談したこれまでで最も高位の米当局者となった。

ペロシ氏のオフィスによれば、ペロシ氏は議員団とともにウクライナを訪問した。同行した議員の中には、下院外交委員会のミークス委員長や下院情報特別委員会のシフ委員長らが含まれる。

ホワイトハウスによれば、米国のバイデン大統領は１日、ウクライナ訪問についてペロシ氏と協議した。

ゼレンスキー氏は１日、議員団と会談した際の動画を投稿し、米国からの支援に謝意を示した。

ペロシ氏は動画の中でゼレンスキー氏に対して、「我々は、自由のために戦っているあなたたちに感謝を伝えるため訪問した。我々は自由の最前線にいる。そして、あなたたちの戦いはすべての人たちのための戦いだ」と述べ、戦いが終わるまでウクライナへの関与を続けるとも伝えた。

ペロシ氏は１日、ポーランド・ジェシュフで行われた記者会見で、ゼレンスキー氏との会談では、安全保障や人道支援、経済支援、最終的なウクライナの再建が議題の中心となったと述べた。

ペロシ氏は１日の声明で、今回のウクライナ訪問によって、米国がウクライナ支援に向けて北大西洋条約機構（ＮＡＴＯ）の同盟国と強固に連携しているという明白なメッセージを世界に伝えたと語った。

Translation

  (CNN) It ​​was revealed that US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited the Ukrainian capital Kieu (Kyiv) on April 30 and met with President Zelensky. Mr. Pelosi's office revealed this on the 1st. More than two months after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Pelosi became the highest-ranking US official to date in a meeting with Zelensky.

According to Mr. Pelosi's office, Mr. Pelosi visited Ukraine with a delegation. Among the accompanying members were Mr. Meeks, Chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, and Mr. Schiff, Chairman of the House Intelligence Committee.

According to the White House, on the 1st US President Joe Biden talked with Mr. Pelosi about the visit to Ukraine.

Zelensky posted a video of the meeting with the legislators on the 1st and thanked the United States for his support.

In the video, Pelosi told Zelensky that "We visited to thank you for your fight for freedom. We are at the forefront of freedom. And your fight is for all of the people”, adding that they would continue to be involved in Ukraine until the end of the fight.

At a press conference in Rzeszow, Poland, Pelosi said that in her meeting with Zelensky, security, humanitarian aid, financial assistance and the final reconstruction of Ukraine were at the center of the agenda.

In the statement made on the 1^st, Pelosi said that the visit to Ukraine delivered a clear message to the world that the United States was working closely with allies of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to support Ukraine.

              So, the US openly commits to support Ukraine to fight the Russia aggression and promises to continue to be involved in Ukraine until the end of the fight.  The US has taken up its leadership role in European security matter again. I think the Ukrainians are not only fighting for their freedom, but also fighting to uphold the international order in stopping aggression into another sovereign country and occupying its land. It is an unjustified and unprovoked war started by Russia.

Central bank outlook: Russian economy - negative growth of up to 10% this year

Recently CNN.co.jp reported the following:

ロシア経済、今年は最大１０％のマイナス成長　中銀見通し

2022.05.01 Sun posted at 16:00 JST

  （ＣＮＮ） ロシア中央銀行は５月１日までに、今年の同国経済は８～１０％のマイナス成長になるとの最新の見通しを示した。

国内の経済活動は今年３月、ウクライナ侵攻や国際社会がロシアに対して発動した制裁を受け、後退し始めたと指摘。声明で消費者の購買意欲の減退や企業活動の縮小、輸出入での落ち込みがあったと報告した。

ロシアの企業活動は現在、生産面などで相当な難局に遭遇していると説明。国内経済が直面する外部環境は厳しい局面が続き、経済活動に相当な規模で制約を与えていると分析した。

世界銀行は先月、ロシアの国内総生産（ＧＤＰ）は今年、１１．２％のマイナス成長を予測。国際通貨基金（ＩＭＦ）は先々週、約８．５％のマイナス成長を予想していた。

ロシア中央銀行は、国内経済は２０２３年末までに回復基調を見せないともし、「２３年の国内経済は構造改革の局面に遭遇しながらも段階的な成長軌道に乗るだろう」とも期待した。

来年の第４四半期（１０～１２月期）の生産力は前年同期比で４．０～５．５％増とし、２３年のＧＤＰの成長率はマイナス３．０％から０．０％の間と占った。

ロシア中央銀行は最近、政策金利を１７％から１４％に引き下げると発表。消費者の低調な購買活動と自国通貨ルーブルの価値の回復は国内のインフレ率を若干押し下げたとも説明していた。

ただ、物価上昇は今後も高止まりになるとみられ、中央銀行は今年のインフレ率は１８～２３％増とし、来年は５～７％増と見込んだ。

Translation

  (CNN) On May 1, the Central Bank of Russia announced that the latest outlook for the country's economic would be a negative growth of 8-10% this year.

It was pointed out that domestic economic activity began to recede in March this year due to the invasion of Ukraine and the sanctions imposed on Russia by the international community. In a statement, it reported a decline in purchasing motivation in consumers, a reduction in corporate activities, and a drop in imports and exports.

It explained that Russian corporate activities were currently facing considerable difficulties in terms of production etc. It was analyzed that the external environment the domestic economy facing continued to be severe and imposed considerable restrictions on economic activities.

The World Bank last month predicted a negative growth of 11.2% in Russia's gross domestic product (GDP) this year. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in the week before last expected a negative growth of about 8.5%.

The Central Bank of Russia said that the domestic economy would not show a recovery trend by the end of 2023, and expected that "the domestic economy in 2023 will be on a gradual growth trajectory while encountering a phase of structural reform."

Production capacity in the fourth quarter (October-December) of next year would increase by 4.0-5.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate of GDP in 2023 would be from minus 3.0% to 0.0%.

The Central Bank of Russia recently announced that it could reduce the policy rate from 17% to 14%. It also explained that sluggish consumer buying activity together with a recovery in the value of home currency ruble had pushed down domestic inflation slightly.

However, inflation was expected to remain high in the future, and the central bank expected inflation to rise 18-23% this year and 5-7% next year.

              So, the Central Bank of Russia has announced that the latest outlook for the country's economic grow would be a negative 8-10% this year.  Meanwhile the World Bank predicts a negative growth of 11.2% in Russia's gross domestic product (GDP) this year. I am wondering how these would affect the war in Ukraine as far as Putin is concerned.