以色列如何利用間諜、走私無人機和人工智能震懾並牽制伊朗（2/2）

Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

How Israel used spies, smuggled drones and AI to stun and hobble Iran (2/2)

The Associated Press - Julia Frankel and Sam Mednick

Tue, June 17, 2025 at 5:48 a.m. PDT·6 min read

(continue)

Using AI and human intelligence to select targets

To analyze information gathered from various sources, Israel used the latest artificial-intelligence, or AI, technology, said an intelligence officer involved with selecting individuals and sites to target. He said AI was used to help Israelis quickly sift through troves of data they had obtained. That effort began last October according to the officer, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to talk to the media; it was one month before Netanyahu said he had ordered the attack plans.

An investigation by The Associated Press earlier this year uncovered that the Israeli military uses U.S.-made AI models in war to sift through intelligence and intercept communications to learn the movements of its enemies. It's been used in the wars with Hamas in Gaza and with Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The intelligence officer involved in identifying the possible targets said options were first put into various groups, such as leadership, military, civilian and infrastructure. Targets were chosen if they were determined to be a threat to Israel, such as being deeply associated with Iran's Revolutionary Guard — a paramilitary force that controls Iran’s ballistic missiles.

The officer was tasked with putting together a list of Iranian generals, including details on where they worked and spent their free time.

Among the high-level military officials killed since Friday's attack were Gen. Hossein Salami, the head of Iran's Revolutionary Guard, and Gen. Mohammed Bagheri, the chief of staff of Iran's armed forces.

In addition to AI, the Mossad relied on spies to identify top nuclear scientists and members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, according to one security official. At least eight members of the Guard, including the head of its missile program, were killed in a single Israeli strike on an underground bunker.

Targeting Iranian vehicles

Another facet of the attack was to strike Iranian vehicles used to transport and launch missiles.

Shine said the strategy was similar to a Ukrainian operation earlier this month in Russia. In that operation, nearly a third of Moscow’s strategic bomber fleet was destroyed or damaged with cheaply made drones snuck into Russian territory, according to Ukrainian officials.

In an interview with Iranian state-run television, the country's police chief, Gen. Ahmadreza Radan, said “several vehicles carrying mini-drones and some tactical drones have been discovered.” He added: “a number of traitors are trying to engage the country’s air defense by flying some mini-drones.”

 How far back does this go?

The Mossad is believed to have carried out numerous covert attacks on the Iranian nuclear program over the years, including cyberattacks and the killing of Iranian nuclear scientists. But it rarely acknowledges such operations.

In the 2000s, Iranian centrifuges used for enriching uranium were destroyed by the so-called Stuxnet computer virus, believed to be an Israeli and American creation.

In 2018, Israel stole an archive of Iranian nuclear research that included tens of thousands of pages of records, said Yossi Kuperwasser, a retired general and former military intelligence researcher who now directs the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security.

In July 2024, Israel killed a senior leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, with a bomb in a bedroom of a government guesthouse in Tehran.

Israel's blistering attack last week on the heart of Iran’s nuclear and military structure didn’t come out of nowhere, said retired Israeli Brig. Gen. Amir Avivi, who heads the Israel Defense and Security Forum think tank.

It was the result of “Israeli intelligence working extensively for years in Iran and establishing a very strong robust presence,” he said.

Translation

以色列如何利用間諜、走私無人機和人工智能震懾並牽制伊朗（2/2）

（繼續）

利用人工智能和人類智慧選擇目標

一位參與選擇目標人物和地點的情報官員表示，為了分析從各種來源收集的信息，以色列使用了最新的人工智能（AI）技術。他表示，人工智能被用來幫助以色列人快速篩選他們所獲得的大量數據。據這位官員透露，這項工作始於去年10月。由於未獲授權接受媒體採訪，這位官員不願透露姓名，這是內塔尼亞胡宣布下令實施攻擊計劃之前一個月。

美聯社今年稍早的一項調查發現，以色列軍方在戰爭中使用美國製造的人工智能模型來篩選情報並攔截通信，以了解敵人的動向。它曾在與加薩走廊的哈馬斯以及黎巴嫩真主黨的戰爭中被使用過。

參與確定潛在目標的情報官員表示，目標首先被分為不同類別，例如領導層、軍隊、平民和基礎設施。如果目標被確定為對以色列構成威脅，例如與伊朗革命衛隊（一支控制伊朗彈道飛彈的準軍事部隊）關係密切，就會被選中。

該官員的任務是整理一份伊朗將軍名單，包括他們工作地點和空閒時間的詳細資料。

自周五襲擊事件以來，遇難的高級軍官包括伊朗革命衛隊負責人 Hossein Salami 將軍和伊朗武裝部隊總參謀長 Mohammed Bagheri 將軍。

據一位安全官員稱，除了人工智能之外，摩薩德還依靠間諜來識別伊朗革命衛隊的高級核科學家和成員。以色列對一座地下掩體的攻擊中，至少有八名伊朗革命衛隊成員喪生，其中包括其飛彈計劃的負責人。

 

瞄準伊朗車輛

這次攻擊的另一個目的是打擊用於運輸和發射飛彈的伊朗車輛。

Shine 表示，這項策略與本月稍早烏克蘭在俄羅斯的行動類似。據烏克蘭官員稱，在那次行動中，莫斯科近三分之一的戰略轟炸機機隊被偷偷運入俄羅斯領土的廉價無人機摧毀或損壞。

在接受伊朗國家電視台採訪時，伊朗警察局長 Ahmadreza Radan 將軍表示： “已發現數輛載有微型無人機和一些戰術無人機的車輛” 。他還補充道： “一些叛徒正試圖通過驅動一些微型無人機來打擊該國的防空系統。”

這行動要追溯到什麼時候？

一般相信摩薩德多年來對伊朗核計畫發動了多次秘密攻擊，包括網路攻擊和殺害伊朗核科學家。但該組織很少承認此類行動。

進入21世紀，伊朗用於濃縮鈾的離心機被所謂的「震網」（Stuxnet）電腦病毒摧毀，據信該病毒是由以色列和美國共同開發的。

退休將軍、前軍事情報研究員、現任耶路撒冷戰略與安全研究所所長的 Yossi Kuperwasser 表示，2018年，以色列竊取了一份包含數萬頁記錄的伊朗核子研究檔案。

2024年7月，以色列在德黑蘭一家政府賓館的臥室裡用炸彈炸死了哈馬斯高級領導人 Ismail Haniye。

以色列退休準將現在是以色列國防與安全論壇智庫的負責人 Amir Avivi 將軍表示, 以色列上週對伊朗核和軍事核心結構發動的猛烈攻擊並非憑空而來。

這是「以色列情報部門多年來在伊朗廣泛開展工作並建立起堅實的立足點」的結果。

So, Israel shocked Iran when it pulled off an intelligence and military operation years in the making that struck high-level targets with precision. Guided by spies and artificial intelligence, the Israeli military unleashed a nighttime fusillade of warplanes and armed drones smuggled into Iran to quickly incapacitate many of its air defenses and missile systems. With greater freedom to fly over Iran, Israel bombarded key nuclear sites and killed top generals and scientists. By the time Iran mustered a response hours later, its ability to retaliate was greatly diminished. Apparent, Israel’s intelligent network is working very effectively.

以色列如何利用間諜、走私無人機和人工智能震懾並牽制伊朗（1/2）

 Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

How Israel used spies, smuggled drones and AI to stun and hobble Iran (1/2)

The Associated Press - Julia Frankel and Sam Mednick

Tue, June 17, 2025 at 5:48 a.m. PDT·6 min read

JERUSALEM (AP) — Israel stunned and hobbled Iran last week when it pulled off an intelligence and military operation years in the making that struck high-level targets with precision.

Guided by spies and artificial intelligence, the Israeli military unleashed a nighttime fusillade of warplanes and armed drones smuggled into Iran to quickly incapacitate many of its air defenses and missile systems. With greater freedom to fly over Iran, Israel bombarded key nuclear sites and killed top generals and scientists. By the time Iran mustered a response hours later, its ability to retaliate — already weakened by past Israeli strikes — was greatly diminished.

This account is based on conversations with 10 current and former Israeli intelligence and military officials, some of whom spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss clandestine operations.

It was not possible to independently verify some of their claims. But the former head of research at Israel's spy agency, the Mossad, confirmed the basic contours of the attack, saying she had inside knowledge of how it was planned and executed.

“This attack is the culmination of years of work by the Mossad to target Iran's nuclear program,” said Sima Shine, the former Mossad research director who is now an analyst at the Institute for National Security Studies.

Israel’s element of surprise was enhanced by Iranian officials’ apparent assumption that Israel wouldn’t attack while talks over its rapidly advancing nuclear program were ongoing with the U.S.

A sixth round of talks had been planned for last Sunday in Oman, but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu activated “Operation Rising Lion” on Friday – after his country first notified President Donald Trump.

Netanyahu has for years said neutralizing Iran’s nuclear program was vital for Israel’s security, and Israel had previously taken steps to set back Iran's ability to enrich uranium to weapons grade. But Netanyahu said a more aggressive attack proved necessary, as Iran kept advancing its enrichment program despite U.S. diplomatic efforts and warnings from U.N. watchdogs.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khameini has repeatedly called for Israel's destruction. Iran's political leaders say their nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, though it was the only country without the bomb to enrich uranium close to weapons-grade levels.

Smuggling drones into Iran

The Mossad and the military worked together for at least three years to lay the operational groundwork, according to a former intelligence officer who said he had knowledge of the attack. This person spoke on condition of anonymity given the sensitivity of the subject.

The attack built off knowledge Israel gained during a wave of airstrikes last October, which “highlighted the weakness of Iranian air defenses,” said Naysan Rafati, an Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group.

To further diminish Iranian air defenses and missile systems at the start of last week's attack, Mossad agents had smuggled precision weapons into Iran that were prepositioned to strike from close range, according to two current security officials who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the missions. Those weapons included small, armed drones, which agents snuck into the country in vehicles, according to the former intelligence officer.

Mossad agents stationed weapons close to Iranian surface-to-air missile sites, Shine said. The agency works with a mix of people, both locals and Israelis, she said.

(to be continued)

Translation

以色列如何利用間諜、走私無人機和人工智能震懾並牽制伊朗（1/2）

耶路撒冷（美聯社） - 上週，以色列完成了一項醞釀多年的情報和軍事行動，精確打擊了伊朗高層目標，震懾並牽制了伊朗。

在間諜和人工智能的指導下，以色列軍方在夜間發動了由走私到伊朗的戰機和武裝無人機組成的猛烈攻擊，迅速摧毀了伊朗的許多防空和飛彈系統。憑藉更大的飛行自由，以色列轟炸了伊朗關鍵的核設施，並殺死了高級將領和科學家。幾個小時後，當伊朗做出回應時，其報復能力 - 因已被以色列的襲擊所削弱 - 大大減少。

本報告是基於與10名現任和前任以色列情報和軍事官員的對話，其中一些要求匿名，以討論秘密行動。

部分說法無法獨立核實。但以色列情報機構摩薩德 (Mossad) 前研究主管證實了這次攻擊的基本輪廓，並表示她掌握了攻擊計劃和執行的內部資訊。

前摩薩德研究主管、現任國家安全研究所分析師 Sima Shine 說道: 「這次襲擊是摩薩德多年來針對伊朗核計劃努力的結晶」。

伊朗官員顯然認為，在以色列與美國就其快速推進的核子計劃進行談判期間，以色列不會發動攻擊，這增強了以色列的出其不意。

第六輪談判原定於上週日在阿曼舉行，但以色列總理內塔尼亞胡於週五啟動了 “崛起雄獅行動” - 此前以色列已率先通知了特朗普總統。

多年來，內塔尼亞胡一直表示，消除伊朗核計劃對以色列安全至關重要，以色列先前也曾採取措施，阻止伊朗將鈾濃縮至武器級。但內塔尼亞胡表示，鑑於伊朗不顧美國的外交努力和聯合國監督機構的警告，仍在繼續推進其鈾濃縮計劃，因此有必要採取更具侵略性的打擊。

伊朗最高領袖哈梅內伊曾多次呼籲摧毀以色列。伊朗政治領袖聲稱，他們的核子計劃是用於和平目的，儘管伊朗是唯一一個國家沒有核武而去將鈾濃縮至接近武器級別。

將無人機走私到伊朗

 據一位知情的前情報官員稱，摩薩德和軍方至少合作了三年，為這次襲擊奠定了行動基礎。鑑於事態的敏感性，此人要求匿名。

國際危機組 的伊朗問題分析師 Naysan Rafati 表示，這次襲擊是基於以色列在去年10月空襲浪潮中獲得的訊息，這些空襲「凸顯了伊朗防空系統的薄弱」。

據兩位不願透露姓名的現任安全官員透露，為了在上週襲擊開始時進一步削弱伊朗的防空和導彈系統，摩薩德特工已將精確武器武器走私到伊朗，這些武器預先部署用於近距離打擊。前情報官員透露，這些武器包括小型武裝無人機，由特工用車輛偷偷帶入伊朗。

Shine 說，摩薩德特工在伊朗地對空飛彈發射場附近部署了武器。她還表示，該機構與當地人和以色列人都有合作。

（待續）

美國銀行稱，外國對美國國債的需求正在出現「裂痕」

 Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

'Cracks' are forming in foreign demand for US Treasury bonds, BofA says

Business Insider - Christine Ji

Tue, June 17, 2025 at 3:53 p.m. PDT·2 min read

Foreign buyers of US Treasurys have been shedding their holdings, raising the possibility of more future turbulence for US government bonds, Bank of America titled said.

In a report on Monday titled "Foreign UST Demand Shows Cracks," the bank said that foreign investors, often central banks, are purchasing fewer Treasurys.

Megan Swiber, rates strategist at Bank of America, wrote on Monday that US dollar asset holdings have declined over $60 billion since the beginning of April. Foreign participation in the most recent US 20-year Treasury auction was the lowest since July 2020.

"The foreign demand trajectory going forward is concerning, especially in light of more global investors looking to reduce US assets or increase hedge ratios," she wrote.

Specifically, custodial holdings, or US Treasurys that foreign central banks hold at the Federal Reserve, dropped by $17 billion in the last week and are down $48 billion from late March.

The Fed is also conducting fewer reverse repurchase agreements, which could point to lower demand for Treasurys among global central banks.

A reverse repurchase agreement allows institutions to lend cash overnight to the Fed in exchange for high-quality collateral, usually in the form of short-term US government bonds. Reverse repurchase agreement balances have declined $15 billion since late March, according to the bank.

As seen in the chart below, demand for Treasurys in Q1 of 2025 primarily came from broker-dealers and foreign investors, a trend that may now be reversing.

Decreased foreign demand is atypical in times of heightened economic uncertainty and a weak dollar. Usually, central banks buy up US government debt when the dollar falls versus rivals — which has been the case this year with the US dollar index down over 9%.

Additionally, historically low interest rates in other parts of the world have led foreign investors to jump into the US Treasury market in pursuit of higher yields, Torsten Sløk, Apollo's chief economist said recently. As a result, foreign investors have accumulated record-high exposure to US government bonds with a maturity of over 10 years, meaning that any adjustments they make to their holdings will have an outsize impact on the bond market.

BofA said that it appears now that foreign investors are cutting back on their US Treasury investments, as deficit concerns and general growth worries stemming from tariffs and the tax bill hurt their appeal as safe-haven assets.

Translation

美國銀行稱，外國對美國國債的需求正在出現「裂痕」

美國銀行稱，外國買家一直在減持美國國債，這增加了美國政府公債未來可能出現更多動盪的可能性。

美國銀行在周一發布的一份題為《外國對美國國債的需求出現裂痕》的報告中表示，外國投資者（通常是各國央行）正在減少購買美國國債。

美國銀行利率策略師 Megan Swiber 週一寫道，自4月初以來，美元資產持有量已下降超過600億美元。外國投資者參與最近一次美國20年期公債拍賣的人數創下2020年7月以來的最低水準。

她寫道： “未來的外國需求走勢令人擔憂，尤其是在越來越多的全球投資者尋求減持美國資產或提高對沖比率的情況下。”

具體而言，外國央行在聯邦儲備系統持有的美國公債託管量（即託管持有量）在上週減少了170億美元，較3月底減少了480億美元。

聯邦儲備系統也在減少逆回購協議的執行，這可能顯示全球央行對美國公債的需求下降。

逆回購協議允許機構隔夜向聯邦儲備系統借出現金，以換取高品質的抵押品，通常是短期美國政府債券。據聯邦儲備系統稱，逆回購協議餘額自3月底以來已下降150億美元。

如下圖所示，2025年第一季美國公債需求主要來自經紀自營商和外國投資者，而這一趨勢目前可能正在逆轉。

在經濟不確定性加劇和美元疲軟時期，外國需求下降並不常見。通常情況下，各國央行會在美元兌其他貨幣下跌時買進美國公債 - 今年美元指數下跌超過9%就是這種情況。

此外，Apollo 首席經濟學家 Torsten Sløk 最近表示，世界其他地區的歷史低利率促使外國投資者湧入美國國債市場，以追求更高的收益率。因此，外國投資者對期限超過10年期的美國國債的持倉已達到創紀錄的高位，這意味著他們對持倉的任何調整都將對債券市場產生巨大影響。

美國銀行表示，目前看來，外國投資者正在削減對美國國債的投資，因為赤字擔憂以及關稅和稅收法案引發的普遍增長擔憂, 削弱了美國國債作為避險資產的吸引力。

              So, foreign buyers of US Treasurys have been shedding their holdings, raising the possibility of more future turbulence for US government bonds. Foreign participation in the most recent US 20-year Treasury auction is the lowest since July 2020. It seems that foreign investors are cutting back on their US Treasury investments due to factors such as deficit concerns and worries caused by tariffs and the tax bill.

The shipping industry is on the front line of the US-China trade war, and it's a serious blow to the US toy industry

 Recently CNN.co.jp reported the following:

米中貿易戦争の最前線、海運業界に生じる混乱　米玩具業界にも深刻な打撃

2025.06.17 Tue posted at 13:23 JST

  （ＣＮＮ） 米国が４月２日に世界の大半の国々に対する包括的な関税を発表したことで、世界中の物品の自由な流通を可能にする複雑なグローバルサプライチェーン（供給網）、特に製造品の９０％を輸送する海運業界には混乱が生じた。

大半の関税については別途９０日間停止されているにもかかわらず、企業幹部らは、関税が再び課される前提で事業を運営しなければならないと話す。

米国企業は貿易戦争の休戦中に商品の備蓄に努めている。需要に応えるため中国の工場をフル稼働させ、海運会社にはこの期間内に最大限の商品を納入するよう働きかけている。

「企業が前倒しで調達しようとするのは、ほんの数週間後がどうなるか分からないからだ」と、北京に拠点を置く中国欧盟商会のイェンス・エスケルンド会頭は述べた。「計画することが非常に難しくなり、非効率が生じている。結果的にはコスト増につながるだろう」

 

「ばく大な富の破壊」

オーシャンネットワークエクスプレスジャパンが所有する全長３０２メートルのワンモダン号には、衣類、家具、自動車部品など、主に中国製の製品が詰め込まれたコンテナが最大７０００個積まれている。行き先は米国だ。

米国との貿易摩擦にもかかわらず、船員たちは驚くほど冷静に見える。これは、海運業界の特徴となっている回復力の表れだ。近年、海運業界は新型コロナウイルス感染症のパンデミック（世界的大流行）、スエズ運河の封鎖、紅海におけるイエメンの反政府武装組織フーシによるミサイルの脅威など、数々の危機を乗り越えてきた。

米国側では、中国からの輸入に依存している企業の一部が経営難に陥っている。

「こうした企業の一部は衰退するだろう」と、シカゴに拠点を置く知育玩具企業ラーニング・リソーシズのリック・ウォルデンバーグ最高経営責任者（ＣＥＯ）は指摘する。「ばく大な富が破壊され、回復は不可能だと思う」

米国玩具協会によると、米国で販売される玩具の８０％近くが中国製であるため、玩具業界は特に深刻な打撃を受けている。

 

闘うことを選択

貿易戦争をめぐり、ウォルデンバーグ氏はトランプ政権を相手取った訴訟に勝訴したが、連邦地裁による関税差し止めの判断は、政府の上訴により現在執行停止となっている。

「もちろん、闘わざるを得なかった」「ノックアウトパンチは受けられない」（ウォルデンバーグ氏）

米国で５００人の従業員を擁するラーニング・リソーシズは現在、米中間の「メロドラマのような浮き沈み」を回避するため、玩具生産の一部を中国から積極的に移転させている。

一方で、貿易戦争の目標の一つとされる米国への生産拠点の移転は、「官僚の空想に過ぎない」と一蹴する。米国には現在、十分な生産能力がないからだ。

トランプ大統領はこれまで、関税が米国企業や消費者に与える影響を軽視している。４月３０日の閣議では、米国に到着するコンテナ船について「物資が山積みされているが、その多くは必要ないものだ」と評し、「子どもたちが手にする人形は３０体ではなく、２体になるだろう」「人形２体の値段は通常より数ドル高くなるかもしれない」と述べた。

ウォルデンバーグ氏は、小売店は確実に品切れを起こすとの見方を示す。

業界のトップらは、品不足に加え、あらゆる経済的負担が米国民に転嫁されることも明確に認識している。

Translation

The shipping industry is on the front line of the US-China trade war, and it's a serious blow to the US toy industry

(CNN) The US announced comprehensive tariffs on most countries on April 2 was disrupting the complex global supply chain that allowed goods to flow freely around the world, especially the shipping industry, which transported 90% of manufactured goods.

Despite the suspension of most tariffs for another 90 days, corporate executives said they had to operate their businesses on the assumption that tariffs would be imposed again.

US companies were stockpiling goods during the trade truce. They were running Chinese factories at full capacity to meet demand and encouraging shipping companies to deliver as much goods as possible during this period.

"Companies are trying to frontload purchases because they don't know what the next few weeks will bring," said Jens Eskelund, chairman of the Beijing-based China-European Union Chamber of Commerce. "It's making planning very difficult, and it's creating inefficiencies. It's going to lead to higher costs."

 

"Massive wealth destruction"

The 302-metre One Modern, owned by Ocean Network Express Japan, was carrying up to 7,000 containers packed with mostly Chinese-made goods, including clothing, furniture and auto parts. It's bound for the US.

Despite the trade tensions with the US, the crew seemed surprisingly calm, a sign of the resilience that had characterised the shipping industry. In recent years the industry had weathered a number of crises, including the COVID-19 pandemic, the blockade of the Suez Canal and the missile threats from Yemeni Houthi rebels in the Red Sea.

On the US side, some companies that relied on Chinese imports were struggling.

"Some of these companies will decline," said Rick Waldenberg, CEO of Chicago-based educational toy company Learning Resources. "A lot of wealth has been destroyed, and I don't think it will recover."

According to the American Toy Association, the toy industry had been hit particularly hard, as nearly 80% of toys sold in the U.S. were made in China.

To choose to fight

While Waldenberg won a lawsuit against the Trump administration over the trade war, the federal district court's decision to suspend the tariffs had been stayed due to an appeal by the government.

"Of course we have to fight”; "We can't take a knockout punch." (Waldenberg said)

Learning Resources that was employing 500 people in the U.S. was currently actively relocating some of its toy production out of China to avoid " melodrama like ups and downs" between the U.S. and China.

On the other hand, he dismissed outright the relocation of production bases to the U.S. which was one of the targets of the trade war, as "nothing more than a bureaucratic fantasy." The U.S. currently did not have enough production capacity.

President Trump had so far downplayed the impact of tariffs on U.S. companies and consumers. At the April 30 Cabinet meeting, he commented on container ships arriving in the US, saying, "There's a lot of stuff piled high, but a lot of it is stuff we don't need," and that "kids will get two dolls instead of 30," and that "two dolls might cost a few dollars more than normal."

Woldenberg said he expected retailers would run out of stock for sure.

Industry leaders clearly knew that in addition to the shortages, any economic burden would be passed on to the American people.

So, the comprehensive tariffs on most countries announced by the US on is disrupting the complex global supply chain that allows goods to flow freely, especially the shipping industry. Despite the suspension of most tariffs for another 90 days, US companies are stockpiling goods during the trade truce. Industry leaders know that the tariffs will cause shortages of goods, and that the consequential economic burden will be passed on to the American consumers.

Note:

1. Jens Eskelund is the President of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China. He has lived and worked in China for 25 years and is also the chief representative for Maersk in China. He is the Managing Director of Maersk China Ltd and a member of the DWARC External Experts Advisory Board. (Sider)

2. The term melodrama refers to a dramatic work that exaggerates plot and characters in order to appeal to the emotions. It may also refer to the genre which includes such works, or to language, behavior, or events which resemble them. It is also used in scholarly and historical musical contexts to refer to dramas of the 18th and 19th centuries in which orchestral music or song was used to accompany the action. (Wikipedia)

 

"North Korea to send 6,000 engineers to western Russia" - Russia, Shoigu

 Recently NHK New on-line reported the following:

“北朝鮮 ロシア西部に工兵6000人派遣へ” ロシア ショイグ氏

2025年6月17日 23時14分

ロシアのショイグ安全保障会議書記は17日、北朝鮮のキム・ジョンウン（金正恩）総書記がロシア西部クルスク州の地雷の除去や復興支援のため工兵6000人を派遣することを決めたと明らかにしました。

ロシア国営のタス通信などによりますと、ロシアの前の国防相で、現在は安全保障会議の書記を務めるショイグ氏は17日、プーチン大統領の指示で北朝鮮の首都ピョンヤンを訪問し、キム・ジョンウン総書記と会談しました。

ショイグ氏とキム総書記の会談は今月に入って4日に続き、2度目です。

会談のあと、ショイグ氏は記者団に対し、キム総書記が、ウクライナ軍の越境攻撃を受けたロシア西部クルスク州の復興のため、工兵を派遣すると表明したことを明らかにしました。

派遣されるのは、地雷の除去にあたる1000人と、道路や通信施設などのインフラの再建にあたる5000人の、合わせて6000人だとしています。

また、クルスク州に派遣され、ウクライナ軍との戦闘で死亡した北朝鮮兵士の記念碑を両国に建設する計画を進めるとしています。

ショイグ氏は北朝鮮の工兵がクルスク州に派遣されることについて「北朝鮮の国民とキム総書記がわが国、特にクルスク州に対して示してくれた兄弟のような支援だ」と述べ、プーチン大統領とキム総書記が「包括的戦略パートナーシップ条約」に署名して今月19日で1年となるのを前に両国の連携の強化を強調しました。

Translation

"North Korea to send 6,000 engineers to western Russia" - Russia, Shoigu

On the 17th, Russian Security Council Secretary Shoigu revealed that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un had decided to send 6,000 engineers to remove mines and assist in reconstruction in Kursk Oblast, western Russia.

According to Russian state-run TASS and other sources, Shoigu, Russia's former defense minister and current secretary of the Security Council, visited Pyongyang, the capital of North Korea, on the 17th at the instruction of President Putin and met with Kim Jong Un.

This would be the second time Shoigu and Kim to meet this month, following their first meeting on the 4th.

After the meeting, Shoigu told reporters that Kim announced that engineers would be sent to help rebuild Kursk Oblast, western Russia, which was hit by a cross-border attack by the Ukrainian military.

A total of 6,000 troops would be sent, including 1,000 to remove landmines and 5,000 to rebuild infrastructure such as roads and communications facilities.

Also, in both countries the government will move forward with plans to build memorials for the North Korean soldiers who were sent to Kursk Oblast and died in fighting with Ukrainian forces.

Regarding the dispatch of North Korean engineers to Kursk Oblast, Shoigu said, "This is the brotherly support that the North Korean people and Chairman Kim have shown to our country, particularly to Kursk Oblast," and emphasized the strengthening of cooperation between the two countries ahead of the one-year anniversary of President Putin and Chairman Kim signing the “Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership” that fell on the 19th of this month.

              So, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has decided to send 6,000 troops to Russia to rebuild infrastructure such as roads and communications facilities. Apparently, Kim is happy to have signed the Partnership Treaty with President Putin and to get the rewards that he wants.

Note:

In Russia Oblasts are constituent political entities in a federal union with representation in the Federation Council, and serve as a first-level administrative division. Each oblast features a state government holding authority over a defined geographic territory, with a state legislature, the Oblast Duma. The term oblast can be translated into English as "province" or "region", and there are currently 46 oblasts. (Wikipedia) 

美國銀行高層稱，許多出口商不再想要美元

Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

Many Exporters No Longer Want Dollars, US Bank Executive Says

Bloomberg - Carter Johnson

Mon, June 16, 2025 at 8:02 a.m. PDT·3 min read

(Bloomberg) -- When Paula Comings, the head of currency sales for US Bancorp, talks to US importers, she increasingly hears the same message: Their foreign counterparties no longer want to be paid in dollars.

Instead, they ask for settlement in euros, Chinese renminbi, the Mexican peso and the Canadian dollar, looking to limit their exposure to further swings in the greenback.

“A lot of clients previously were reluctant because dollars were sacred in the eyes of the supplier,” Comings said. “Now the vibe from overseas vendors seems to be, ‘Just give us our currency.’”

While the dollar saw a brief boost amid the turmoil in the Middle East, the currency is still about 8% lower this year against a basket of other currencies. That followed a steep gain of 7% in the final quarter of 2024, according to a Bloomberg index. This volatility, which complicates pricing decisions and poses earnings risks, increasingly means the dollar is falling out of favor.

Some US Bank clients offer a glimpse into this trend. A lumber company from the Midwest now converts its US cash into euros before paying for hardwood imports from Europe — a change from its previous practice of simply sending dollars. The move was spurred in part by a 2% discount offered by its European supplier for making payments in the single currency.

Another client, a homeware retailer that imports from China, renegotiated its terms with suppliers and plans to settle its next bill in yuan. A third customer, a US food company sourcing equipment from Italy, agreed to pay its dues in the common currency, causing it to receive a more favorable rate on a purchase worth €400,000 ($463,120).

“The change is difficult to quantify in real time, but in markets from East Asia to Latin America, a growing number of exporters are opting to denominate contracts in euro, yuan, or even local currencies,” said Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at cross-border payments firm Corpay in Toronto.

Trade invoices will be one area where the dollar’s dominance comes under pressure, Citigroup Inc. strategists including Dirk Willer and Adam Pickett wrote in a recent note. “We think it will take further ‘trade blocs’ across LatAm and Asia to emerge — possibly encouraged by the US trade war — to see larger shifts away from the dollar in trade invoicing.”

Across the Americas, the currency accounted for nearly all export invoices on average each year from 1999 to 2019, according to the latest data from the International Monetary Fund and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. In the Asia Pacific region, that figure stood at about 75%. Europe, where intra-bloc trade prevails, saw a significantly smaller share of exports denominated in dollars.

While it remains to be seen if and when the shift manifests itself in official data, overseas vendors wanting to transact in local currencies “could speak to the dollar’s reputation,” US Bank’s Comings said.

Translation

美國銀行高層稱，許多出口商不再想要美元

（彭博）— 當美國合眾銀行（US Bancorp）外匯銷售主管 Paula Coming 與美國進口商交談時，她越來越多地聽到同樣的訊息：他們的外國交易對手不再希望收美元的支付。

相反，他們要求以歐元、人民幣、墨西哥比索和加元結算，以限制美元進一步波動所帶來的風險敞口。

Comings 說: 「很多客戶以前是會這樣做的，因為在供應商眼中，美元是神聖的」; 「現在海外供應商的氛圍似乎是，'只要給我們我自己的貨幣就行了’」。

儘管美元在中東動盪期間短暫上漲，但今年美元兌一籃子其他貨幣仍下跌約8%。彭博指數顯示，此前美元在2024年最後一季大幅上漲了7%。這種波動性使定價決策變得複雜，並構成獲利風險，這意味著美元正日益失寵。

一些美國銀行的客戶令我們看到了這個趨勢。一家來自中西部的木材公司現在將其美國現金兌換成歐元，然後再支付從歐洲進口的硬木 - 這與之前直接支付美元的做法有所不同。此舉的部分原因是，其歐洲供應商為使用相同貨幣付款提供了2%的折扣。

另一位客戶是一家從中國進口的家居用品零售商，該公司與供應商重新協商了條款，並計劃用人民幣結算下一筆帳單。另有第三家客戶是一家從義大利採購設備的美國食品公司，該公司同意以歐元支付費用，使其在一筆價值40萬歐元（463,120美元）的採購中獲得了更優惠的匯率。

跨境支付公司 Corpay 駐多倫多的首席市場策略師 Karl Schamotta 表示: 「這種變化很難即時量化，但從東亞到拉丁美洲的市場，越來越多的出口商選擇以歐元、人民幣甚至當地貨幣計合同價」。

花旗集團策略師 Dirk Willer 和 Adam Pickett 在最近的報告中寫道，貿易發票將成為美元主導地位面臨壓力的其中一個領域。 “我們認為，需要拉丁美洲和亞洲地區出現更多 ‘貿易集團’ - 這可能是受到美國貿易戰的推動 - 才能看到貿易發票中美元的更大轉移。”

根據國際貨幣基金組織和紐約聯邦儲備銀行的最新數據，從1999年到2019年，美洲地區平均每年幾乎所有出口發票都以美元結算。在亞太地區，這一比例約為75%。在以集團內部貿易為主的歐洲，以美元計價的出口佔比明顯較小。

雖然這種轉變是否以及何時會在官方數據中體現出來還有待觀察，但美國銀行的 Comings 表示，希望使用當地貨幣進行交易的海外供應商「可能說出了美元的名聲了」。

              So, some US businessmen increasingly find that their foreign counterparties no longer want to be paid in dollars. Instead, they ask for settlement in euros, Chinese renminbi, the Mexican peso and the Canadian dollar, looking to limit their exposure to further swings in the greenback. The move is spurred in part by discounts offered by overseas suppliers for payments made in a currency other than greenbacks.

目前哪些國家擁有核武？

 Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

Which countries currently have nuclear weapons?

The Canadian Press - The Associated Press

Tue, June 17, 2025 at 6:30 a.m. PDT·1 min read

 Nine countries currently either say they have nuclear weapons or are believed to possess them.

The first to have nuclear arms were the five original nuclear weapons states — the United States, Russia, China, France and the United Kingdom.

All five are signatories to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, which commits countries that don't have nuclear arms not to build or obtain them, and those that do to “pursue negotiations in good faith” aimed at nuclear disarmament.

Rivals India and Pakistan, which haven't signed the NPT, have built up their nuclear arsenals over the years. India was the first to conduct a nuclear test in 1974, followed by another in 1998. Pakistan followed with its own nuclear tests just a few weeks later.

Israel, which also hasn't signed the NPT, has never acknowledged having nuclear weapons but is widely believed to.

North Korea joined the NPT in 1985 but announced its withdrawal from the treaty in 2003, citing what it called U.S. aggression. Since 2006, it has conducted a string of nuclear tests.

Iran long has insisted its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes only and U.S. intelligence agencies have assessed that Tehran is not actively pursuing the bomb now. But it has in recent years been enriching uranium to up to 60% purity — near weapons-grade levels of 90%.

In an annual assessment released this week, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute estimated that the nine countries had the following stockpiles of military nuclear warheads as of January:

Russia: 4,309

United States: 3,700

China: 600

France: 290

United Kingdom: 225

India: 180

Pakistan: 170

Israel: 90

North Korea: 50

 

Translation

目前哪些國家擁有核武？

目前有九個國家聲稱擁有核武或被認為擁有核武。

最早擁有核武的是五個最原本的核武國家－美國、俄羅斯、中國、法國和英國。

這五個國家都是《核不擴散條約》的締約國，該條約要求沒有核武器的國家不製造或獲得核武器，而擁有核武器的國家則 “真誠地進行談判” ， 以實現核裁軍。

尚未簽署《核不擴散條約》的競爭對手 - 印度和巴基斯坦多年來一直在不斷增強其核武庫。印度於1974年率先進行核子試驗，隨後於1998年進行了第二次核子試驗。巴基斯坦在幾週後也進行了核子試驗。

以色列同樣沒有簽署《核不擴散條約》，從未承認擁有核武器，但外界普遍認為它擁有核武。

北韓於1985年加入《核不擴散條約》，但於2003年宣布退出條約，理由是其所謂的美國侵略行為。自2006年以來，北韓進行了一系列核試驗。

伊朗長期以來堅稱其核計劃僅用於和平目的，美國情報機構評估認為，德黑蘭目前並未積極尋求核彈。但近年來，伊朗一直在將鈾濃縮至純度高達60% - 接近武器級的 90%水平。

斯德哥爾摩國際和平研究所本週發布的年度評估報告估計，截至今年1月，這九個國家的軍用核彈頭庫存如下：

俄羅斯：4309枚

美國：3700枚

中國：600枚

法國：290枚

英國：225枚

印度：180枚

巴基斯坦：170枚

以色列：90枚

北韓：50枚

So, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute estimates that nine countries have military nuclear warheads. I am wondering which other countries will try to obtain nuclear weapon in the coming decades for self defense as the balance of power is shifting globally, for example South Korea or Japan in response to North Korean nuclear threats in Asia, and Germany or Ukraine against Russia in Europe.