2022年7月10日 星期日

非洲農產品出口中國的夢想遭遇了嚴峻的現實 (2/2)

Africa's dream of feeding China hits hard reality (2/2)

Tue, June 28, 2022, 1:05 AM

By Duncan Miriri and Joe Bavier

(Continue)

GREEN LANES

When it comes to food and agriculture, China's imports were worth $13 billion two decades ago. By 2020, they had leapt to $161 billion but Africa only accounted for 2.6% of that.

China's African Affairs chief Wu said harnessing that growth would ensure balanced trade, increase African employment opportunities and help the continent industrialise.

"(China) actively responded to the important concerns of African countries on China-Africa trade cooperation," he said.

President Xi's plan calls for centralized clearance zones, or "Green Lanes", to speed up inspections of agricultural goods from Africa, more zero-tariff access and $10 billion in trade finance for Chinese firms importing from the continent.

On paper, China's growing food needs present a huge opportunity for Africa to leverage agricultural exports to raise foreign exchange, said Lauren Johnston, visiting senior lecturer at University of Adelaide's Institute of International Trade.

"The debt situation has brought it to the fore," she said. "In the first instance it's just a super logical investment."

But some countries are struggling to take advantage of the opportunities, such as Kenya. It's the biggest producer of avocados in Africa and exported $154 million worth last year, mainly to Europe.

Eric Were at the Kenya Plant Health Inspectorate Service's (Kephis) said they had jumped through hoops to get 10 avocado companies cleared this year for Chinese exports.

"For the Chinese, we need to inspect the orchard, we need to inspect the packhouse and we need to inspect the fumigation facilities," he said.

He said Kakuzi, Kenya's biggest avocado grower, spent a month showing it could track its produce from the seeds, to how trees are managed, and how the avocados are harvested, processed and packed. By contrast, the European Union only requires inspection at the point of exit, Were said.

Last month, the inspectorate announced that Chinese authorities had decided to conduct their own audits - which has not always been a positive experience next door in Uganda.

"When they come, quite often they find that we are not doing well," Emmanuel Mutahunga, Uganda's Commissioner for External Trade, told Reuters.

RED LINES

Tanzanian coffee farmers have struggled to make their mark too while in Namibia, it took nine years from the signing of a beef export deal to satisfy Chinese regulators, leading to the first shipments in 2019.

Wu said China's planned initiatives would help African farmers improve their quarantine and food safety capacity, though Mei and Johnston said any loosening of phytosanitary regulations for African imports was unlikely.

"There's no bigger red line than China and food security," Johnston said.

China is also missing out on other ways to accelerate access, say experts such as Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa.

He said Beijing could negotiate broad trade deals with African countries and regional blocs, as the EU does.

Instead, China continues to do bilateral deals, and even then only on individual products.

"The core message here is for China to be a bit more open to Africa's food exports," he said. "A lot of it's going to have to come down to individual countries negotiating better deals."

South Africa's citrus industry was among the continent's early trailblazers in China, signing its first protocol with Beijing in 2004. It exported 162,000 pallets of fruit in 2021, but success didn't come overnight.

"It's been an incredible market for SA citrus," said Justin Chadwick, chief executive of the Citrus Growers Association of Southern Africa.

Yet Britain and the European Union, which have stringent food safety standards, are still by far the top destination for South African citrus, accounting for 44% of exports last year.

"When you want to go to China, you have to get a separate protocol for each agricultural product. It averages at about 10 years for each product's protocol to be concluded," Chadwick said. "Unfortunately, China does this one product at a time."

(Duncan Miriri reported from Thika, Kenya, and Joe Bavier reported from Johannesburg; Additional reporting by Elias Biryabarema in Kampala, Ellen Zhang in Beijing, Nuzulack Dausen in Dar es Salaam, and Nyasha Nyaungwa in Windhoek; Editing by David Clarke)

Translation

(繼續)

綠色通道

在糧食和農業方面,20 年前中國的進口額為 130 億美元。到 2020 年,它們已躍升至 1,610 億美元,但非洲僅佔其中的 2.6%

中國非洲事務負責人Wu說,利用這種增長將確保貿易平衡,增加非洲就業機會並幫助非洲大陸實現工業化。

說:(中國)積極回應非洲國家對中非貿易合作的重要關切。

習主席的計劃呼籲設立集中清關區或 綠色通道 ,以加快對非洲農產品的檢查、更多的零關稅准入, 以及為從非洲大陸進口的中國公司提供 100 億美元的貿易融資。

阿德萊德大學國際貿易學院訪問高級講師 Lauren Johnston 說,從理論上講,中國不斷增長的糧食需求為非洲提供了利用農產品出口增加外滙的巨大機會。

說:債務狀況使它凸顯”;首先,這只是一項超邏輯的投資。

但一些國家正在努力利用這些機會,例如肯尼亞。它是非洲最大的牛油果生產商,去年出口價值 1.54 億美元,主要銷往歐洲。

肯尼亞植物健康檢查局 (Kephis) Eric Were 表示,今年他們已經為 10 家牛油果公司獲得了中國出口許可。

: 對於中國人來說,我們需要檢查果園,我們需要檢查包裝廠,我們需要檢查熏蒸設施。

說,肯尼亞最大的牛油果種植商 Kakuzi 花了一個月的時間展示了它可以跟踪其產品,從種子到樹木的管理方式,以及牛油果的收穫、加工和包裝方式。Were 說相比之下,歐盟只要求在出口點進行檢查

上個月,檢查機構宣布中國當局已決定進行自己的檢查 - 這在隔壁的烏干達進行,並不經常是一個暢順的經歷。

烏干達對外貿易專員 Emmanuel Mutahunga 告訴路透社:當他們來的時候,他們經常發現我們做得不好。

紅線

坦桑尼亞的咖啡農也一直在努力取得成功,而在納米比亞,從簽署牛肉出口協議到滿足中國監管機構需要 9 年時間,導致 2019 年的第一批貨物送出。

Wu說,中國計劃中的舉措將幫助非洲農民提高檢疫和食品安全能力,但 Mei Johnston 表示不太可能這是會放鬆對非洲進口的植物檢疫法規。

Johnston : 沒有比中國和糧食安全更大的紅線了

南非農業商會首席經濟學家 Wandile Sihlobo 等專家表示,中國也錯過了加快准入的其他方式。

說,北京可以像歐盟那樣與非洲國家和地區集團談判廣泛的貿易協議。

相反,中國繼續進行雙邊交易,即便如此,也只是針對個別產品。

: 這裡的核心信息是讓中國對非洲的食品出口更加開放”;其中很大部分將為個別國家談判更好的交易。

南非的柑橘產業是非洲大陸在中國的早期開拓者之一,2004 年與北京簽署了第一份協議。2021 年,它出口了 162,000 水果货物托盤,但成功並非一蹴而就。

南部非洲柑橘種植者協會首席執行官 Justin Chadwick 說:這對南非柑橘來說是一個令人難以置信的市場。

然而,具有嚴格食品安全標準的英國和歐盟仍是南非柑橘的首選目的地,佔去年出口的 44%

Chadwick: 當你想去輸往中國時,你必須為每種農產品獲得單獨的協議。每種產品的協議平均需要大約 10 年才能完成;不幸的是,中國一次只做一個產品。

So, for decades, China has loaned billions of dollars to Africa to build railroads, power plants and highways as it deepened ties with the continent while extracting minerals and oil. That has helped China-Africa trade balloon 24-fold over the past two decades. But for $148 billion of Chinese goods shipped to Africa in 2021, China imported only $106 billion and five resource-rich nations - Angola, Congo Republic, Democratic Republic of Congo South Africa and Zambia have already accounted for $75 billion of that amount. Many African nations now say they simply cannot afford more Chinese loans and must boost exports to China and agriculture produce is the key item that they can trade with China.

2022年7月9日 星期六

非洲農產品出口中國的夢想遭遇了嚴峻的現實 (1/2)

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

Africa's dream of feeding China hits hard reality (1/2)

Tue, June 28, 2022, 1:05 AM

By Duncan Miriri and Joe Bavier

THIKA, Kenya (Reuters) - Watching workers poke avocados from the treetops in an orchard owned by Kenyan agriculture firm Kakuzi, managing director Chris Flowers revels in the thought some might soon go to the crown jewel of emerging consumer markets: China.

Taking advantage of Beijing's deeper focus on trade with African countries to help reduce gaping deficits, Kenya struck an export deal with China for fresh avocados in January after years of lobbying for market access.

Six months later, no shipments have left, Kenya's avocado society, the East African country's plant health inspectorate and Kakuzi told Reuters.

While 10 avocado exporters have passed Kenyan inspections, China now wants to do its own audits and, based on the past experience of some other African fruit producers, it could take a decade to get the green light.

"You can actually have a market, but if you can't meet the standards, you can't take advantage," said Stephen Karingi, head of trade at the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa.

Reuters spoke to nine officials and businesses across Africa who said Chinese red tape and a reluctance to strike broad trade deals were undermining Beijing's plan to boost African imports.

Ramping up agricultural exports, however, is one of the few options many African countries have to rebalance their trade relationships with China and earn the hard currency they need to service mountains of debt, much of it owed to Beijing.

Take Kenya. Its annual trade deficit with China is about $6.5 billion and it has roughly $8 billion of Chinese debt. It needs nearly $631 million to service that debt alone this year, but that's almost three times its exports to China in 2021.

Many African nations now say they simply cannot afford more Chinese loans and must boost exports to China. In recognition of the need to address the imbalances, or at least stop them getting worse, China announced a shift in strategy in November.

At a China-Africa summit typically used by Beijing to unveil eye-popping loans, President Xi Jinping announced a raft of initiatives to boost China's imports from Africa to $300 billion over the next three years and $300 billion a year by 2035.

In theory, agriculture is one the most promising avenues, experts say. China is the world's biggest food importer while the agricultural sector in Africa is both the leading employer and contributor to economic activity.

What's more, 60% of the world's uncultivated arable land is in Africa, meaning there is huge potential for growth.

"It's a win-win choice for China and Africa," said Mei Xinyu of the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, a think-tank under China's Ministry of Commerce.

TRADE IMBALANCES

For decades, China has loaned billions of dollars to Africa to build railroads, power plants and highways as it deepened ties with the continent while extracting minerals and oil.

That has helped China-Africa trade balloon 24-fold over the past two decades and two-way trade hit a record $254 billion last year despite the turmoil of the global pandemic.

But for $148 billion of Chinese goods shipped to Africa in 2021, China imported only $106 billion and five resource-rich nations - Angola, Congo Republic, Democratic Republic of Congo South Africa and Zambia - accounted for $75 billion of that.

Nigeria, Africa's most populous nation, is the top importer of Chinese goods, hoovering up $23 billion worth in 2021, but those imports dwarfed Nigeria's exports to China by eight times.

The disparity is more stark in Uganda, where about 80% of its exports are agricultural products such as coffee, tea and cotton. It sent goods worth $44 million to China last year but its imports topped $1 billion.

Chinese customs data shows that more than three-quarters of African nations have trade deficits with Beijing.

Wu Peng, Director-General of the Chinese Foreign Ministry's Department of African Affairs, said such imbalances were unintentional.

"China has always been focusing on promoting the balanced development of China-Africa trade," he told Reuters.

African leaders have been pushing for years for action on trade, said Hannah Ryder, founder of Development Reimagined, an African-owned development consultancy headquartered in Beijing.

The pandemic, meanwhile, sharpened their focus on debt. Some 60% of low-income countries - mostly in Africa - are either in debt distress or at high risk, with debt service burdens at their highest in 20 years.

"African countries were under pressure to not take on more lending," Ryder said. "Trade is where (the Chinese) think they can do something."

(to be continued)

Translation

肯尼亞, THIKA(路透社)- 在肯尼亞農業公司 Kakuzi 擁有的果園裡,董事總經理 Chris Flowers看著工人們從樹梢上戳牛油果,陶醉在思想中認為這些牛油果可能很快就會前往新興消費市場的皇冠上的明珠:中國。

肯尼亞利用北京更深入地關注與非洲國家的貿易以幫助減少其巨大的赤字,在經過多年的市場准入遊說後,於今年 1 月與中國達成了新鮮牛油果的出口協議。

六個月後,肯尼亞的牛油果協會、東非國家的植物衛生檢查局和 Kakuzi 告訴路透社,沒有任何貨物被送出。

雖然有 10 家牛油果出口商通過了肯尼亞的檢查,但中國現在希望自己進行審視,而且根據其他一些非洲水果生產商過去的經驗,可能需要十年時間才能獲得批准。

聯合國非洲經濟委員會貿易主管 Stephen Karingi 說:你實際上可以擁有一個市場,但如果你不能達到標準,你就無法利用。

路透社採訪了非洲各地的九名官員和企業,他們表示,中國的繁文縟節和不願達成廣泛的貿易協議正在破壞北京增加非洲進口的計劃。

然而,增加農產品出口是許多非洲國家必須重新平衡與中國的貿易關係, 並賺取他們需要的硬通貨來償還大量債務的少數選擇之一,其中大部分債務是欠北京的。

以肯尼亞為例, 它對中國的年度貿易逆差約為 65 億美元,中國債務約為 80 億美元。僅今年它就需要近 6.31 億美元來償還債務,但這幾乎是其 2021 年對中國出口的三倍。

許多非洲國家現在表示,他們根本無法負擔更多的中國貸款,必須增加對中國的出口。認識到有必要解決或至少阻止失衡惡化,中國在 11 月宣布了戰略轉變。

在北京通常用來公佈令人瞠目結舌的貸款的中非峰會上,習近平主席宣布了一系列舉措,以在未來三年內將中國從非洲的進口提高到 3,000 億美元,到 2035 年達到每年 3,000 億美元。

專家說,理論上,農業是最有前途的途徑之一。中國是世界上最大的食品進口國,而非洲的農業部門既是主要的勞動力雇主,也是經濟活動的貢獻者。

更重要的是,全球60%的未開墾耕地在非洲,增長潛力巨大。

中國商務部的智庫組織,中國國際貿易經濟合作研究院的 Mei Xinyu: “這是中非雙贏的選擇”。

貿易不平衡

幾十年來,中國向非洲提供了數十億美元的貸款,用於建設鐵路、發電廠和高速公路,加深與非洲大陸的聯繫,同時在非洲開採礦產和石油。

在過去的 20 年裡,這幫助中非貿易增長了 24 倍,儘管全球病毒大流行造成了動盪,去年的雙向貿易達到了創紀錄的 2,540 億美元。

但相對於 2021 年運往非洲的 1,480 億美元中國商品,中國僅進口了 1,060 億美元,而五個資源豐富的國家 - 安哥拉、剛果共和國、剛果民主共和國、南非和讚比亞 - 佔其中的 750 億美元。

非洲人口最多的國家尼日利亞是中國商品的最大進口國,2021 年的進口額達到 230 億美元,但這進口額是尼日利亞對中國的出口8 , 相形見絀。

烏干達的差距更為明顯,該國約 80% 的出口產品是咖啡、茶和棉花等農產品。去年它向中國出口了價值 4,400 萬美元的商品,但其進口額卻超過了 10 億美元。

中國海關數據顯示,超過四分之三的非洲國家與北京存在貿易逆差。

中國外交部非洲司司長 Wu Peng 表示,這種失衡是無意的。

他告訴路透社: 中國一直致力於促進中非貿易平衡發展

總部設在北京的非洲發展諮詢公司 Development Reimagined 的創始人 Hannah Ryder 說,非洲領導人多年來一直在推動貿易行動。

與此同時,病毒大流行使他們更加關注債務。大約 60% 的低收入國家 - 主要是非洲國家 - 要么陷入債務困境,要么處於高風險之中,償債負擔達到 20 年來的最高水平。

Ryder : 非洲國家承受著不能接受更多貸款的壓力; 貿易是(中國人)認為他們可以做些事的地方。

(未完待續)

2022年7月7日 星期四

G7 statement strongly condemns Russia, expresses concerns on the situation in the East China Sea etc. with China in mind

Recently NHK New on-line reported the following:

G7声明 ロシアを強く非難 中国念頭に東シナ海などの状況に懸念

2022628 2253

28日に閉幕したG7サミット=主要7か国首脳会議は首脳声明を発表し、軍事侵攻を続けるロシアを厳しく非難するとともに、ウクライナへの支援に結束して取り組む姿勢を打ち出しました。

また、声明では、中国が軍事活動を活発化させる東シナ海などの状況に深い懸念が示されたほか、弾道ミサイルの発射を繰り返す北朝鮮への厳しい非難も盛り込まれました。

ドイツ南部のエルマウで今月26日から3日間の日程で開かれていたG7サミットは、日本時間の29日夜閉幕し、先ほど一連の会議の成果文書である首脳声明が発表されました。

この中で、ロシアによるウクライナへの軍事侵攻について「違法で不当な侵略だ」と厳しく非難するとともに「われわれはウクライナの側に立ち、必要な財政的、人道的、そして軍事的支援を提供していく」として、G7としてウクライナ支援に結束して取り組む姿勢を打ち出しました。

そのうえで「ウクライナの防衛を支援し、自由で民主的な未来を確保するため、関係国や関係機関と調整する用意がある」として、ウクライナの将来的な安全保障の強化に向け、支援する方針を示しました。

一方、ロシア産のエネルギーへの依存度を下げる「脱ロシア」については「妥協することなく取り組んでいく」としましたが、アメリカ政府の高官が合意が近いという見通しを示していたロシア産の石油に対する上限価格の設定については「今後模索していく」という表現にとどまり、合意には至りませんでした。

また、声明では、東シナ海と南シナ海の状況について「深い懸念を示す」としたうえで「力や威圧によって現状変更しようという、いかなる一方的な試みにも強く反対する」として、周辺で軍事活動を活発化させる中国を念頭にけん制しました。

そして台湾情勢について「われわれは台湾海峡の平和と安定の重要性を強調し、平和的な解決を呼びかける」としました。

さらに中国に対しては「ロシアに軍事侵攻を停止し、ただちに、かつ、無条件でウクライナから部隊を撤収させるよう圧力をかけることを求める」とロシアに軍事侵攻の停止に向け働きかけるよう呼びかけるとともに「中国の人権状況を深く懸念している。新疆ウイグル自治区での強制労働はわれわれにとって重大な懸念だ」として、中国の人権状況に重ねて懸念を示しました。

声明では、弾道ミサイルの発射を繰り返す北朝鮮について「強く非難する」としたうえで「違法な大量破壊兵器と弾道ミサイル開発計画を破棄するよう求める」として、核・ミサイル開発を放棄するよう強く求めるとともに、非核化に向け対話のテーブルに着くよう呼びかけました。

このほか気候変動対策をめぐり「われわれは開かれた、協力的な気候クラブの目標を支持し、2022年末までの設立に向け友好国などと連携する」として国際的な枠組みを立ち上げ、対策を加速させる姿勢を強調しました。

Translation

The G7 Summit, which ended on the 28th, issued a summit statement harshly condemning Russia for its continued military invasion, and displayed an attitude to work together to support Ukraine.

The statement also expressed deep concern about the situation in the East China Sea where China was increasing its military activities, and also included severe criticism of North Korea which repeatedly launched ballistic missiles.

The G7 Summit which was held in Elmau in southern Germany for three days from the 26th of this month and closed on the night of the 29th of Japan time; a summit statement that was the outcoming document of a series of meetings was released earlier.

In this statement, Russia's military invasion of Ukraine was severely criticized as "illegal and unjustified invasion”, and supposed that "we stand on the side of Ukraine and provide the necessary financial, humanitarian and military support”. As G7, a stance of being united and working towards supporting Ukraine had been displayed.

On top of that, it was supposed that "We are ready to coordinate with the countries and organizations concerned to support the defense of Ukraine and to secure a free and democratic future”, showing a policy direction to strengthen supports for Ukraine's future security.

On the other hand, regarding "de-Russia" to reduce the dependence on Russian energy, it said that they would "work on it without compromise", and about the setting of the maximum price upper limit price for Russian oil, a senior U.S. government official said that an agreement was near, and the expression used at this stage was “to continue to explore it" and no agreement had been reached.

In addition, the statement stated that it "expresses deep concern" about the situation in the East China Sea and the South China Sea, and "strongly opposes any one-sided attempt to change the status quo by force or intimidation”, checking on China that was actively engaged in military activities in the surrounding area in mind.

Regarding the situation in Taiwan, it said, "We emphasize the importance of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait and call for a peaceful solution."

Also, in calling Russia to stop the military invasion, it called on China “to urge stopping Russia’s military invasion and to pressure for immediately and unconditionally withdraw of its troops from Ukraine”; it also deeply concerned about the human rights situation in China in saying that "we are deeply concerned about the human rights situation in China. Forced labor in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region is a serious concern for us."

The statement on top of saying that it "strongly condemns" North Korea which repeatedly launched ballistic missiles, also urged North Korea to abandon its nuclear and missile development, and the destruction of illegal weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missile development plans. It also called for coming to a dialogue table for denuclearization.

In addition, regarding climate change measures it supposed that "We support the goals of an open and cooperative climate club, and cooperate with friendly countries toward its establishment by the end of 2022", launching an international framework to emphasize an attitude of accelerating the measures.

              So, the G7 Summit issues a summit statement that harshly condemning Russia for its continued military invasion in Ukraine. The statement also expresses deep concern about the situation in the East China Sea where China is increasing its military activities. It also includes severe criticism of North Korea which repeatedly launches ballistic missiles. It seems that the G7 is paying increasing attention to the situations in the Far East.

2022年7月5日 星期二

中國企業主導香港經濟的關鍵部分 (2/2)

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

Chinese Firms Are Dominating Key Parts of Hong Kong’s Economy (2/2)

(Bloomberg) Kiuyan Wong, Shirley Zhao and John Cheng

Sun, June 26, 2022, 2:00 PM

(continue)

Infrastructure

Hong Kong’s skyline is being increasingly defined by mainland companies, as those firms -– mainly state-owned construction behemoths -- grabbed more and bigger public infrastructure contracts. Last year, mainland firms won 48% of government infrastructure contracts worth more than HK$500 million ($64 million), up from just 8% in 2018, a Bloomberg News analysis of public tendering records found.

Their dominance was even more pronounced for the largest projects. For example, they took 68% of the HK$53 billion construction of the local part of the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge, including a 12-kilometer (7.46 mile) highway and building an artificial island off the city’s airport. All of Hong Kong’s makeshift hospitals and most of its quarantine facilities for Covid-19 control were also built by state-owned construction companies.

Chinese developers also aggressively snapped land in the middle of the last decade, although the buying spree has lost some of its steam in recent years amid pressure from Beijing to deleverage. One of the biggest buyers was HNA Group Co., which acquired several residential sites in the Kai Tak area in record-breaking deals, only to dispose of them due to debt issues.

On the construction side, state-owned firms such as China State Construction International Holdings Ltd. and China Communications Construction Co. expanded their market share in Hong Kong thanks to their massive capital. This allowed them to offer attractively low prices to the government on builds, said Derrick Pang, chief executive officer of Asia Allied Infrastructure Holdings Ltd., a local construction firm. Homegrown developers often need to rely on bank loans, making them less competitive. And losing past projects also means local companies now lack a good track record, putting them at even more of a disadvantage, Pang said.

“If we don’t have more Hong Kong companies rising to the top, what happens is they will gradually disappear,” Pang said. “Whether this happens in five years, 10 years or 20 years -- it’s just a matter of time. And it will be a similar story in other Hong Kong sectors, not just the construction industry.”

Mainland firms have also been buying up prime office space. In 2017, they occupied almost half of the Central business district’s office space, according to Jones Lang LaSalle Inc. But there has been a slide in demand in recent years, leaving large chunks of empty office space as foreign firms also cut back amid sky-high rents and the chilling effect of the city’s strict pandemic measures.

Retail

For decades, Hong Kong’s retail scene had been ruled by homegrown tycoons. The two dominant supermarket chains are owned by CK Hutchison, the flagship of billionaire Li Ka-shing’s empire, as well as Jardine Matheson Holdings Ltd. Their growth has stagnated in recent years as groups backed by mainland Chinese capital are catching up.

Jardine’s Wellcome supermarket has grown just 2% since 2017 while CK Hutchison’s ParknShop has shrunk 17%. U Select, owned by China Resources, expanded 39%, according to data from Euromonitor International and Bloomberg News. Qiandama, a mainland grocery chain backed by JD.com Inc., entered Hong Kong in mid-2018 and has since opened 50 shops.

China Resources is also Hong Kong’s largest food distributor and sole importer of fresh pork, beef and poultry from the mainland. The city relies on the mainland for more than 90% of its fresh pork supply.

Beijing has been open about its desire to increase its influence in Hong Kong, especially after the unrest in 2019 strained its trust with the local tycoons. Mainland Chinese enterprises should provide for Hong Kong’s livelihood and promote its integration into the nation’s overall development, Yin Zonghua, deputy director of China’s liaison office in Hong Kong, said at an event in December 2021.

Still, there’s one crucial part of the city that is becoming less Chinese: the public.

A survey released last week showed only 29% of residents identified as broadly “Chinese,” down from above 40% just after the handover, according to a poll by the Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute. Some 70% identified as Hong Kongers, up from about 60% 25 years ago.

But the survey showed some good news for officials eager to tie Hong Kong closer to the mainland, the residents identifying as “Chinese” has rebounded from a low in 2020.

Translation

(繼續)

基礎設施

香港的土地和建築物面貎的輪廓越來越被大陸公司所定調,因為這些公司 - 主要是國有建築巨頭 - 攫取了越來越多公共基礎設施的合同。彭博新聞對公開招標記錄的分析發現,去年大陸公司贏得了價值超過 5 億港元(6,400 萬美元)的政府基礎設施合同的 48%,高於 2018 年的只有 8%

對於最大的項目,他們的主導地位更加明顯。例如,他們承擔了港珠澳大橋當地部分 530 億港元建設的 68%,其中包括一條 12 公里(7.46 英里)的高速公路和在該市機場附近建造一個人工島。香港所有的方艙醫院和大部分用於控制 Covid-19 的隔離設施也是由國有建築公司建造的。

中國開發商在過去十年中也大舉搶購土地,儘管近年來在北京施加壓力下出售資以降低債務水平。購買熱潮已經失去了一些動力。最大的買家之一是海航集團,它以破紀錄的交易收購了啟德地區的幾處住宅用地,但由於債務問題而將其出售。

在建築方面,中國建築國際控股有限公司和中國交通建設股份有限公司等國有企業憑藉擁有巨額資金擴大了在香港的市場份額。當地建築公司 Asia Allied Infrastructure Holdings Ltd. 的首席執行官 Derrick Pang 表示,這使他們能夠向政府提供極具吸引力的低價格建設。本土開發商通常需要依賴銀行貸款,從而降低了競爭力。Pang說,本地公司失去過去的項目也意味著現在缺乏良好的業績記錄,使他們處於更大的劣勢。

Pang : 如果我們沒有更多的香港公司達到頂級位置,它們會逐漸消失”; “這是否會在五年、十年或二十年內發生 - 這只是時間問題。香港其他行業也會出現類似的情況,而不僅僅是建築業。

內地公司也一直在購買優質寫字樓。根據仲量聯行的數據,在2017 們佔據了中環商業區近一半的辦公空間。但近年來需求有所下滑,隨著外國公司也在縮減, 以及高昂租金和該市嚴格的流行病措施的寒蟬效應, 導致大量空置辦公空間。

零售

幾十年來,香港的零售業一直由本土大亨主導。兩家占主導地位的連鎖超市分別由億萬富翁李嘉誠的帝國旗艦長江和記,以及怡和控股所擁有。近年來,隨著中國大陸資本支持的集團正在迎頭趕上,它們的增長停滯不前。

2017 年以來,Jardine Wellcome 超市僅增長 2%,而 CK Hutchison ParknShop 則縮水了 17%。根據 Euromonitor International 和彭博新聞的數據,華潤旗下的 U Select 股價上漲了 39%。由京東支持的大陸雜貨連鎖店大媽於2018年年中進入香港,至今已開設50家店鋪。

華潤亦是香港最大的食品分銷商和內地新鮮豬肉、牛肉和家禽的唯一進口商。該市90%以上的新鮮豬肉供應依賴內地。

北京一直公開表示希望增加其在香港的影響力,尤其是在 2019 年的騷亂令其對當地大亨的信任變得緊張之後。中國駐香港聯絡處副主任 Yin Zonghua 2021 12 月的一次活動中表示,中國內地企業應為香港提供民生服務,促進香港融入國家整體發展。

儘管如此,這座城市的一個關鍵部分正在變得越來越不中國化:普羅大眾。

根據香港民意研究所的一項民意調查,上週發布的一項調查顯示,只有 29% 的居民自已認定為廣義的中國人,而在主權移交後不久,這一比例是超過了 40%。約 70% 認定自已為香港人,高於 25 年前的大約 60%

但調查顯示,對於渴望將香港與內地拉近的官員來說,有一些好消息,自已認為 中國人的居民已從 2020 年的低點反彈。

So, 25 years after Hong Kong’s sovereignty changes hand to China, Beijing is not just calling the shots politically, but in vast section of the city’s $344 billion economy. Chinese state-controlled firms are increasingly dominating, taking market share away from the local tycoons and British trading houses that thrived under the British rule up to 1997.

2022年7月4日 星期一

中國企業主導香港經濟的關鍵部分 (1/2)

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

Chinese Firms Are Dominating Key Parts of Hong Kong’s Economy (1/2)

Bloomberg - Kiuyan Wong, Shirley Zhao and John Cheng

Sun, June 26, 2022, 2:00 PM

(Bloomberg) -- Half way to the point when Hong Kong will officially be enveloped by China, Beijing is not just calling the shots politically, but in vast swathes of the city’s $344 billion economy.

From the stock exchange to brokerages, construction projects to the retail sector, Chinese state-controlled firms are increasingly dominating, taking market share away from the local tycoons and British trading houses that thrived under the final decades of UK rule.

Those behind the growing Chinese influence view Hong Kong’s economy as stagnant, slow to embrace the technology-driven, new economy industries that have been catalysts for growth on the mainland. Chinese enterprises have been handed more political power in the city, including a recent revamp of the electoral system that reduced the influence of local businesspeople and added greater representation for state-backed companies.

“Hong Kong has come to a crucial crossroads,” said Simon Lee, a Hong Kong lawmaker and Greater Bay Area chief strategist for China Resources Group, a state-owned conglomerate. “With all these challenges, we need to make sure different voices are included in our policy making and mainland Chinese enterprises need to take greater responsibility in our society, economy and politics.”

While the mainland economy now faces its own host of challenges, and substantial political resistance to Beijing’s overpowering influence remains -- especially among local youth who don’t identify as Chinese -- the mainland-ization of Hong Kong’s business life increasingly looks irreversible.

We take a look at how it’s playing out, sector by sector:

Finance

Back in 1997, local brokers such as Peregrine and Somerley Capital, along with foreign banks including Morgan Stanley ruled the city’s finance industry. Fast forward to this year, and China International Capital Corp., China Merchants Bank Co. and Citic Securities Co. dominate listings. Almost 100 local brokers have closed over the past four years, battered by competition.

But more worrying for Hong Kong’s status as a gateway to China is that Chinese firms are choosing to raise capital at home, rather than in the city. Shanghai and Shenzhen have seen $37 billion in initial public offerings this year, compared with just $2.4 billion in Hong Kong.

In 1993, Tsingtao Brewery Co. became the first Chinese company to list in Hong Kong, and by 1999 that number had grown to 44, according to the Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing Ltd. Now the city’s exchange hosts 1,370 mainland firms, accounting for almost 80% of the market’s value.

Chinese firms are catching up to foreign firms in terms of placing their regional headquarters in Hong Kong, more than doubling since 1997. Foreign businesses have also been clamoring for the city to relax its strict quarantine rules imposed over the past three years. In March, a survey by the European Chamber of Commerce showed a quarter of European companies in Hong Kong plan to fully relocate operations out of the city.

Telecommunications

China Mobile Ltd., the mainland’s largest mobile operator, has become a dominant force in Hong Kong since it entered the market in 2006 after acquiring the fourth-largest wireless carrier. Today, the company has the biggest share of commercial mobile airwaves, beating three other competitors controlled by CK Hutchison Holdings Ltd., billionaire Richard Li and Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd.’s Kwok family. China Mobile is leading in the next generation 5G, holding the largest share of the spectrum along with Li’s HKT Trust & HKT Ltd.

(to be continued)

Translation

(彭博社)- 在香港正式將被中國完全掌控的一半進程裡,北京不僅在政治上主宰着,而且在這座城市 3,440 億美元經濟的大片區域內發號施令。

從證券交易所到券商,從建築項目到零售業,中國國有控股公司正日益佔據主導地位,將市場份額從在英國統治的最後幾十年蓬勃發展的當地大亨和英國貿易公司手中奪走。

那些支持中國影響力不斷增長人士認為,香港經濟是停滯不前,對能推動內地增長的技術驅動的新經濟產業發展只作出緩慢的接納。中國企業在這座城市獲得了更多的政治權力,包括最近對選舉制度進行了改革,降低了當地商人的影響力,而增加了國有企業的代表性。

香港立法會議員、國有企業集團華潤集團的大灣區首席策略師 Simon Lee : “香港已經走到了一個關鍵的十字路口”; 面對所有這些挑戰,我們需要確保在我們的政策制定中包含不同的聲音,而中國大陸企業需要在我們的社會、經濟和政治中承擔更大的責任。

雖然內地經濟現在面臨著自身的一系列挑戰,而且對北京的壓倒性影響仍然存在巨大的政治阻力 - 尤其是在不認同中國人的當地青年中 - 但香港商業生活的內地化似乎越來越不可逆轉。

我們逐個行業看看它是如何發揮作用的:

金融

早在 1997 年,Peregrine Somerley Capital 等本地券商以及包括摩根士丹利在內的外資銀行統治了香港的金融業。把時間快速推前到今年,中國國際金融股份有限公司、招商銀行股份有限公司和中信證券股份有限公司主導上市。在過去四年中,近 100 家本地經紀人因競爭而倒閉。

但更令人擔憂的是,香港作為通往中國的門戶的地位, 是中國公司選擇在國內而不是在香港籌集資金。上海和深圳今年的首次公開募股達到 370 億美元,而香港僅為 24 億美元。

根據香港交易及結算所有限公司的數據,1993 年,青島啤酒成為第一家在香港上市的中國公司,到 1999 年,這一數字已增至 44 家。現在,該市的交易所擁有 1,370 內地公司,佔幾乎市場值的80%

在把地區總部設在香港方面,中國公司正在趕上外國公司,自 1997 年以來翻了一番多。外國企業也一直在呼籲香港放寬過去三年實施的嚴格檢疫規定。 3 月,歐洲商會的一項調查顯示,四分之一的在香港歐洲公司計劃將業務全面遷出香港。

電信

中國移動是內地最大的移動運營商,自2006年收購香港第四大無線運營商後進入市場,已成為香港的主導力量。如今,該公司擁有最大的商業移動電波份額,擊敗了由長江和記控股有限公司、億萬富翁李澤楷, 和新鴻基地產有限公司的郭氏家族控制的三個競爭對手。中國移動在下一代 5G 方面處於領先地位,與李氏的 HKT Trust & HKT Ltd. 一起佔據頻譜的最大份額。

(代續)

2022年7月2日 星期六

More than 800,000 people’s highest education are "elementary school graduates": in their 10s and 20s, to get education is an issue

Recently NHK News on-line reported the following:

最終学歴「小卒」が80万人余 1020代も 学びの確保が課題に

2022618 539

中学校まで通えずに小学校卒業が最終学歴となっている人について、国が初めて調査したところ、全国で80万人余りに上ることが分かりました。

80代以上が多い一方で10代や20代の若者もいて、義務教育を受けられなかった人たちへの学びの確保が課題となっています。

80代以上が9

先月公表された国勢調査では、小学校卒業が最終学歴となっている人について国内の人数が初めて調べられ、おととし10月時点で804293人いることが分かりました。

年代別にみると、80代以上が全体の9割を占めていて、戦前の教育制度の違いや、戦後の混乱などが背景にあると見られています。

年代別で見ると

一方、

50代では6663人、

40代では6163人、

30代では4221人、

20代では2508人、

15歳以上20歳未満では302人と、

若い世代でも義務教育を受けられていない人がいます。

全体では外国人が占める割合は2.5%ですが、50代以下では50%余りが外国人となっています。

また、従来から調査されている小学校も通えていない未就学者は94455人となっています。

国は、さまざまな事情で十分な教育を受けられなかった人の学びの機会を保障するため、全国の教育委員会に「夜間中学」の設置を呼びかけ、この春も新たに4校開校しましたが、15都道府県にとどまっていて学びの支援が課題となっています。

「夜間中学」設置は15都道府県にとどまる

都道府県別にみると、最終学歴が小学校卒業となっている人が最も多かったのは北海道で54000人余り、次いで愛知県で36000人余り、新潟県で35000人余り、大阪府が34000人近くとなっています。

一方で、義務教育を受けられなかった人たちが学ぶ「夜間中学」を設置しているのは、この春に北海道などで開校した4校を含めても15都道府県の40校にとどまっています。

夜間中学がない地域のうち、宮城県仙台市や静岡県など3県で来年や再来年に開校するほか、鳥取県や群馬県など6県で、これから開校に向けて検討が進められています。

しかし、最終学歴が小学校卒業の人が多くいる愛知県や新潟県を含む23県では、設置の時期など具体的な見通しが立っていないということで、文部科学省は今回の調査結果を受けて、全国の教育委員会に夜間中学の設置や充実に取り組むよう文書で通知しました。

専門家「多様なニーズに合わせ 学びを保障する必要」

子どもの貧困や学校教育に詳しい立命館大学の柏木智子教授は「外国人の未就学は課題として指摘されており想定されていたが、50代以下の世代で日本人でも同程度ぐらいが『小卒』という状況にあるのは憂慮すべき事態だ。もっと早くからこうした実態把握をすべきだった。最終学歴が大卒の人と比べると生涯賃金に大きな差があり、貧困状態にも陥りやすく自分自身が望む生き方ができない状況に陥ることが想定される。格差の是正という意味でも一人ひとりを取り残さない教育が求められる」と指摘しました。

そして「夜間中学は重要な学び直しの機会を保障する場で、設置を進めるべきだが、仕事や子育てで通いにくい人や一度学校に通うのをやめた人たちが再び通学することには大きなハードルもあり、公的サービスにより多様なニーズに合わせて学びを保障する必要がある」と話しています。

Translation

The first national survey on those who had not attended junior high school and their highest academic level were elementary school graduation revealed that there were more than 800,000 people nationwide. 

While many were in their 80s or older, there were also young people in their teens and 20s, and securing education for those who could not receive compulsory education was an issue.

 90% of people were in their 80s and above

A census released last month for the first national survey on people who graduated from elementary school as their final education stood, the number was 804,293 as of October the year before last.

By age group, people in their 80s and above accounted for 90% of the total, and it was believed that the background was the difference in the prewar education system and the confusion after the war.

By age group

on the other hand,

6,663 people in their 50s,

6,163 people in their 40s,

4,221 people in their 30s,

2,508 people in their 20s,

302 people between the ages of 15 and 20

Even among the younger generations there were people who had not received the compulsory education.

While foreigners accounted for 2.5% of the total, for foreigners in their 50s or under, they occupied more than 50%.

In addition, in a past survey the number of preschoolers who have not attended even the elementary schools was 94,455.

The government called on the Board of Education nationwide to establish a "Night junior high school" in order to guarantee learning opportunities for those who had not received sufficient education due to various reasons, and while four new schools were opened this spring, support for learning remained an issue in 15 prefectures.

"Night junior high school" was set up in 15 prefectures only

By prefecture, the largest number of people with the final academic level at graduation from elementary school was Hokkaido with more than 54,000 people, followed by Aichi prefecture with more than 36,000 people, Niigata prefecture with more than 35,000 people, and Osaka prefecture had nearly 34,000 people.

On the other hand, only 40 "Night junior high schools" had been set up in 15 prefectures for those who could not receive compulsory education, including 4 schools that opened in Hokkaido this spring.

Of the areas where there was no night junior high school, in 3 prefectures including Sendai City of Miyagi Prefecture and Shizuoka Prefecture would open schools next year and the year after next, and six prefectures such as Tottori Prefecture and Gunma Prefecture were considering opening the schools.

However, in 23 prefectures including Aichi and Niigata prefectures where many people had graduated from elementary schools only, the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology upon receiving the results of this survey and also because there was no concrete outlook for the timing of setting up schools, had informed the Board of Education nationwide in writing to work on the establishment and enhancement of night junior high school.

Expert: "Need to ensure learning according to diverse needs”

Professor Tomoko Kashiwagi of Ritsumeikan University who was familiar with child poverty and school education said "while foreigners do not go to school as an issue has been pointed out and expected, yet even Japanese people in their 50s or younger are similar and merely were "elementary school graduates " is a worrying situation. We should have grasped this situation earlier. There is a big difference in lifetime wages comparing them to those who have university academic backgrounds, it is assumed that they will easily fall into poverty and will not be able to live the way they want. Also, in a sense to correct disparities, we need an education that does not leave even one person behind. "

She also said "Night junior high school is a place that guarantees important opportunities for re-learning, and it should be set up. For those who have difficulty in attending school due to work or raising children or those who have once stopped attending school, there is also a big hurdle in going to school again. We need to ensure that learning will meet diverse needs through public services. "

              So, a government survey reveals that there are more than 800,000 people nationwide who are elementary schools graduates only, and some of them are young people. This is a shocking news to me as Japan is a rich country that can afford to provide compulsory education to all citizens.

2022年7月1日 星期五

為什麼中國的通貨膨脹率低於美國、歐洲和英國?

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

Why is China's inflation rate low compared to the US, Europe and Britain?

SCMP Frank Tang in Beijing

Fri, June 17, 2022, 2:30 AM

China's benign inflation readings are in marked contrast to many advanced economies, giving the country space for more monetary loosening while the United States, the European Union and Britain hike rates.

The consumer price index (CPI) grew 2.1 per cent in May from a year earlier, flat from April, though still at a six-month high, which reflected rising prices for crude oil, farm produce and material imports.

In comparison, inflation hit at a four-decade high of 8.6 per cent in the US and 8.1 per cent in the Eurozone last month. It surged to 9 per cent in Britain in April.

China's core CPI, which excludes the volatile prices of food and energy, rose by 0.9 per cent year on year last month, unchanged from April. Headline inflation for the first five months grew by 1.5 per cent, comfortably below the government's full-year maximum of 3 per cent.

The producer price index (PPI), which measures the prices for products as they leave factories, rose by 6.4 per cent in May, down from a peak of 13.5 per cent in October 2021.

Chinese officials and academics have attributed the divergence to Western stimulus measures, notably the unprecedented money printing used to save economies battered by the coronavirus pandemic.

The US Federal Reserve's balance sheet has more than doubled in the past two years to US$8.9 trillion, while Beijing, which was cautious about an all-out stimulus, has refrained from excessive loosening.

But part of the reason also comes down to the weighting of goods and services that make up China's CPI basket.

While China gives more weight to clothes and food, which fits its status as an upper middle-income country, the US places more emphasis on shelter and transport, both of which are easily affected by global energy prices and domestic monetary conditions.

Authorities have not disclosed the weighting of China's CPI basket, which was changed in 2021. However, Huang Wentao, an analyst with China Securities Co, estimated the weighting for food increased to 18.4 per cent, versus 7.8 per cent in the US.

For clothing, China's weight is 6.2 per cent versus 2.8 per cent in the US, according to Huang.

Rent accounted for 16.2 per cent, about half the US weighting at 32 per cent, while transport was 10.1 per cent in China, lower than 15.1 per cent in the US, he said.

In addition, the US economy relies heavily on imports of consumer products, whereas China's massive industrial capability means it has more room to deal with the price hikes for global commodities.

PPI and CPI used to have a strong correlation - consumer prices would follow suit if prices for production materials rose or fell. In China's case, however, the correlation has been weakening in recent years because of hog and grain cycles.

China's PPI fell 3.7 per cent in May 2020, but grew 13.6 per cent in October last year, while domestic consumer prices remained relatively stable.

"China's hog cycle makes food prices and industrial product prices divergent," China Securities Co said in a note in January.

"Other reasons include the fall of downstream demand and the rise of competition."

China's lower inflation, some argue, is partly a result of plunging domestic demand caused by Beijing's zero-Covid policy, which has been used to contain the highly contagious Omicron variant since March.

Retail sales continued to contract by 6.7 per cent in May, but the pace was slower than the steep fall of 11.1 per cent in April.

Pork prices have played a big role in consumer inflation cycles, with an estimated weight of 2.4 per cent in the CPI basket. Prices for pork, the staple meat on Chinese tables, fell 37 per cent from a year earlier in the first five months of 2022.

Meanwhile, as China is so central to global manufacturing - particularly after overseas capacity was hit by the pandemic in 2020 - rising production costs have been mostly absorbed by overseas buyers or producers.

Beijing is still on high alert for inflation, as it has been a factor in social instability in the past.

The central bank governor Yi Gang said in April the primary objective of China's monetary policy is to stabilise prices and employment.

Inflation also influences the ratio of Chinese household debt to gross domestic product (GDP), which jumped to 61.6 per cent last year from 17.9 per cent in 2008, a situation made worse by the pandemic.

On the ground, ordinary people's perception of consumer inflation is far larger than what is reflected in official figures. For instance, China's rising petrol price, influenced by a 68 per cent year on year rise in international crude prices, is forcing many families to switch to public transport or electric vehicles.

The grain price between January and May rose 2.2 per cent from a year earlier, while egg prices rose 6.8 per cent. Edible oil is up 3.7 per cent and vegetables up 8.7 per cent, government data showed.

Ensuring domestic supply of grain and energy is a key task for the government.

Some analysts worry China's CPI could rise with surging crude oil and grain prices. The World Bank estimated the prices for both Brent crude and wheat would increase by around 40 per cent this year from 2021.

Chinese inflation will be mainly affected by price rises stemming from the Ukraine war, lower external demand and a rebound in the yuan, China International Capital Corporation said in a note on Tuesday.

"Domestically, the upcycle of pork prices and the economic rebound will drive up consumer prices, but the median level may be still benign," the investment bank said, expecting a full-year rise of around 2.1 per cent, which is still within the government's tolerance range.

Translation

中國溫和的通脹數據與許多發達經濟體形成鮮明對比,在美國、歐盟和英國加息的同時,為中國提供了更多寬鬆貨幣的空間。

5 月份消費者價格指數 (CPI) 同比增長 2.1%,與 4 月份持平,但仍處於六個月的高位,這反映了原油、農產品和材料進口價格上漲。

相比之下,上個月美國和歐元區的通脹率分別達到了 8.6% 8.1% 的四年高位。 4月份在英國飆升至9%

剔除波動較大的食品和能源價格的中國基准核心CPI上月同比上漲0.9%,與4月份持平。前五個月的總體通脹率增長了 1.5%,遠低於政府 3% 的全年最高水平。

衡量產品出廠價格的生產者價格指數 (PPI) 2021 10 月的峰 13.5% 下降到 5 月份的 6.4%

官員和學者將這種分歧歸因於西方的刺激措施,尤其是用於拯救受冠狀病毒大流行打擊的經濟體的史無前例的印鈔。

美國聯儲的資產負債表在過去兩年中翻了一番多,達到 8.9 萬億美元。而相對對於全面刺激措施持謹慎態度的北京則沒有過度放鬆。

但部分原因也歸結於商品和服務構成中國 CPI 籃子的份量

中國更看重衣食,這符合中上收入國家的地位,而美國則更重視住房和交通,這兩者都容易受到全球能源價格和國內貨幣狀況的影響。

當局尚未披露中國 CPI 籃子的份量組成,該份量組成在 2021 年發生了變化。但是,中國證券股份有限公司分析師 Huang Wentao 估計,食品的權重增加到 18.4%,相對美國為 7.8%

 Huang說,在服裝方面,中國的重量 6.2%,而美國為 2.8%

說,租金佔 16.2%,約是美國的一半,佔 32%,而交通在中國占 10.1%,低於美國的 15.1%

此外,美國經濟嚴重依賴消費品進口,而中國強大的工業能力意味著它有更大的空間應對全球大宗商品價格上漲。

PPICPI曾經有很強的相關性 - 產資料價格上漲或下跌,消費者價格也會隨之上漲或下跌。然而,就中國而言,由於生豬週期和糧食週期,這種相關性近年來一直在減弱。

 20205月中國PPI下降3.7%,但去年10月增長13.6%,而國內消費價格保持相對穩定。

中國證券股份有限公司在 1 月份的一份報告中表示: “中國的生豬週期使食品價格和工業品價格出現分化”

其他原因包括下游需求下降和競爭加劇。

一些人認為,中國較低的通貨膨脹率部分是由於北京的零新冠政策導致國內需求下降,該政策自 3 月以來一直被用來遏制具有高度傳染性的 Omicron 變種。

5 月份零售額繼續收縮 6.7%,但速度低於 4 月份 11.1% 的急劇下降。

豬肉價格在消費者通脹週期中發揮了重要作用,估計在 CPI 籃子中的份量為 2.4%。作為中國餐桌上的主食肉價格, 2022 年前五個月,同比下降 37%

與此同時,由於中國在全球製造業中如此舉足輕重 - 尤其是在 2020 年海外產能受到大流行打擊之後 - 不斷上升的生產成本主要被海外買家或生產商承受。

北京仍然對通貨膨脹保持高度警惕,因為它過去一直是社會不穩定的一個因素。

央行行長 Yi Gang 4月份表示,中國貨幣政策的首要目標是穩定物價和就業。

通貨膨脹也影響了中國家庭債務與國內生產總值 (GDP) 的比率,從 2008 年的 17.9% 躍升至去年的 61.6%,這種情況因病毒大流行而變得更糟。

在現實,普通民眾對消費通脹的感覺遠大於官方數據所反映的。例如,受國際原油價格同比上漲 68% 的影響,中國不斷上漲的汽油價格正迫使許多家庭改用公共交通工具或電動汽車。

1-5月糧食價格同比上漲2.2%,雞蛋價格上漲6.8% 政府數據顯示,食用油上漲 3.7%,蔬菜上漲 8.7%

保障國內糧食和能源供應是政府的一項重點工作。

一些分析人士擔心,隨著原油和糧食價格的飆升,中國的 CPI 可能會上漲。 世界銀行估計,對比 2021 年,今年布倫特原油和小麥的價格都將上漲約 40%

中國國際金融股份有限公司週二在一份報告中表示,中國通脹將主要受到烏克蘭戰爭引發的物價上漲、外部需求下降和人民幣反彈的影響。

該公司表示: 從國內看,豬肉價格的上行週期和經濟回暖將推高消費價格,但中位水平可能仍是温和的 ,並預計全年漲幅在2.1%左右,仍在 政府的容忍範圍。

So, China's mild inflation figures are in marked contrast to many advanced economies, giving the country space for more monetary loosening while the United States, the European Union and Britain hike rates. It is also interesting to note that the weighting of goods and services that make up China's CPI basket and US basket are very different. Also, the US economy relies heavily on imports of consumer products, whereas China's massive industrial capability means it has more room to deal with the price increases in global commodities.

Translation note:

1. Headline inflation is the raw inflation figure reported through the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The CPI calculates the cost to purchase based on a fixed basket of goods to determine how much inflation is occurring in the broad economy. Another way to calculate is to base on the core inflation. It removes the CPI components that can have large amounts of volatility from month to month, which can cause unwanted distortion to the headline inflation.