中國出口意外下滑，價格持續下跌

Recently the New York Times reported the following:

China’s Exports Unexpectedly Falter as Prices Keep Falling

Exports of cars, solar panels and batteries remain strong, but prices are falling because of factory overcapacity in China.

By Keith Bradsher

Nov. 7, 2025, 3:02 a.m. ET

After months of surging demand, China’s exports unexpectedly dipped in October, the first drop in eight months, partly from an ongoing slide in prices for many of China’s most popular exports like cars, solar panels and batteries.

The value of Chinese exports slipped 1.1 percent in October from a year earlier, China’s General Administration of Customs said on Friday. Western economists had expected China to announce another month of growth.

China’s exports have continued to boom this year, despite its trade war with the United States and rising tariffs in developing countries like Brazil, India, and Turkey, which also fear the effect on their factories’ employment from a deluge of low-cost goods made in China. Until October, shipments of Chinese goods to other regions of the world had more than offset the downturn in trade to the United States.

China is still on pace for a second straight year of record trade surpluses.

The physical volume of China’s exports has grown rapidly this year, lifted by a flood of Chinese cars, electronics, household appliances and other goods pouring into world markets. But the overall value of its exports is not keeping pace, as Chinese companies are offering significant discounts to overseas buyers to offload excess factory capacity.

China’s exports to the European Union, Latin America, Africa and Southeast Asia all weakened in October. The composition of China’s exports has been shifting toward products like cars and solar panels, which have experienced some of the largest price drops, and away from lower-technology products like furniture and apparel.

The number of exported cars rose nearly 25 percent in October from a year earlier, even as the value of those cars rose only 17 percent.

President Trump’s tariffs, by contrast, appear to have had a dwindling effect last month. Exports to the American market fell less in October than they had in either of the two previous months. There were also signs that Chinese companies are bypassing his tariffs by sending goods through other countries instead of directly to the United States.

“A rise in the share of Chinese exports going to Vietnam, the top rerouting hub, suggests that the tariff offset from rerouting continued to expand,” wrote Zichun Huang, China economist at Capital Economics, a consulting firm, in a research note. “So if anything, the drag from U.S. tariffs was moderating rather than increasing.”

China continued to export more than three times as much to the United States in October as it imported. That large trade surplus has helped Beijing maintain factory employment and strengthen the economy even as a long-running, slow-motion collapse of China’s housing market has badly hurt the finances of many Chinese households.

Consumers in China have been cautious about spending after losing a significant portion of their life savings in that downturn. With less demand at home, more of those goods are being redirected to overseas markets.

A slight strengthening of China’s currency, the renminbi, against the dollar in recent months may also have hurt the country’s competitiveness by making Chinese goods more expensive when sold in some overseas markets. But the renminbi has weakened by about 7 percent against the euro in the past year, which has helped Chinese exporters to the European Union.

Goldman Sachs pointed out in a research note that China’s exports also might have faltered because October had one fewer workday this year than last year.

Translation

中國出口意外下滑，價格持續下跌

汽車、太陽能板和電池的出口依然強勁，但由於中國工廠產能過剩，價格正在下跌。

在經歷了數月的強勁需求後，中國10月份的出口意外下滑，這是八個月來的首次下降，部分原因是汽車、太陽能板和電池等中國最暢銷出口產品的價格持續下跌。

中國海關總署週五表示，10月中國出口額年減1.1%。西方經濟學家此前預計中國將連續第二個月成長。

儘管中國與美國爆發貿易戰，及巴西、印度和土耳其等發展中國家也擔心大量中國製造的低價商品湧入本國工廠，會影響其就業不斷提高關稅, 今年以來中國的出口仍保持強勁成長。直到10月份，中國對世界其他地區的商品出口量足以彌補對美貿易下滑的影響。

中國仍有望連續第二年創下貿易順差紀錄。

今年，中國出口的實體量成長迅速，這主要得益於大量中國汽車、電子產品、家用電器和其他商品湧入世界市場。但由於中國企業為了清理過剩產能而向海外買家提供大幅折扣，其出口總貨価的成長速度並未跟上實體量的成長。

10月份，中國對歐盟、拉丁美洲、非洲和東南亞的出口均下降。中國出口產品的組成正在轉變，汽車和太陽能板等價格跌幅最大的產品佔比上升，而家具和服裝等低科技產品則有所減少。 

10月中國汽車出口量年增近25%，但出口価値僅成長17%。

相較之下，特朗普總統的關稅政策似乎在上個月有所減弱。 10月中國對美出口的降幅小於前兩個月中的任何一個月。此外，有跡象表明，中國企業正在透過其他國家而非直接向美國出口商品來規避關稅。

諮詢公司Capital Economics的中國經濟學家Zichun Huang在一份研究報告中寫道:「中國出口到越南作為最大的轉運樞紐的份額上升，表明轉運帶來的關稅抵消效應持續擴大」; 「所以如果有什麼的話，美國關稅帶來的拖累正在減弱，而不是加劇」。

10月份，中國對美出口額仍是進口額的三倍多。儘管中國房地產市場長期緩慢崩盤，嚴重損害了許多中國家庭的財務狀況，但巨額貿易順差仍幫助北京維持了工廠就業並增強了經濟實力。

中國消費者在經濟衰退中損失了大部分畢生積蓄後一直謹慎消費。由於國內需求下降，更多商品轉移到海外市場。

近幾個月來，人民幣對美元小幅走強，這也可能削弱了中國的競爭力，因為這使得中國商品在一些海外市場的售價更高。但過去一年，人民幣對歐元貶值了約7%，這有利於中國對歐盟的出口。

高盛在研究報告中指出，中國出口下滑的另一個原因可能是今年10月份的工作日比去年少一天。

So, after months of surging demand, China’s exports unexpectedly dropped in October, the first time in eight months. The physical volume of China’s exports has grown rapidly this year while the overall value of its exports is not keeping pace, as Chinese companies are offering significant discounts to overseas buyers to offload excess factory capacity. Apparently, a large trade surplus enables Beijing to continue supporting factory employments so as to maintain social stability.