中國戰機幾乎抹去了台灣海峽的分界線，創造了危險的新常態 (2/2)

Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

China's warplanes have all but erased the dividing line in the Taiwan Strait, creating a dangerous new normal (2/2)

Business Insider - Chris Panella

Thu, October 31, 2024 at 12:56 a.m. GMT+8·6 min read

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Chinese incursions are tiring out Taiwan's forces

The near-daily ADIZ incursions aren't just changing the status quo in the area; they're also exhausting Taiwan's military.

In October 2020, then-Taiwanese Minister of National Defense Yen Teh-fa said Taipei's air force and navy spent almost $1 billion monitoring Chinese sorties. Since then, Taiwan has adjusted its responses to the ADIZ violations in order to reserve resources, but it is still taxing.

In this tough situation, "the concern is the continued degradation of Taiwan's military assets and the draining of Taiwan's military personnel," Shattuck said, explaining that China "exploits" Taiwan's military capabilities "by flooding the field and forcing Taiwan to choose what things deserve a response."

That degradation could ultimately leave Taiwan's military weakened should one of China's large-scale drills suddenly become the real deal, and with US aid to Taiwan "long-delayed and overdue," Shattuck said, it could hamper Taiwan's readiness.

"The median line of the Taiwan Strait—a de facto boundary that created some semblance of cross-Strait stability—is no more" and "Taiwan cannot push back on all fronts against these PRC incursions," Lewis and Shattuck wrote recently.

This is an attritional fight, they said, arguing that while Chinese military activities around Taiwan "have become normalized and are a part of the ever-deteriorating status quo in the Taiwan Strait," Taipei and Washington still have cards to play.

Taiwan has spent years navigating tricky relations with Beijing, which is opposed to the ruling Democratic Progressive Party and has labeled Lai a "separatist."

During his inauguration speech, Lai promised to uphold Taiwanese democracy as a global beacon, calling on China to cease its intimidation against Taiwan. The speech further inflamed relations, and "Joint Sword 2024-A" shortly followed. Lai toned down rhetoric during his National Day speech earlier this month, demonstrating restraint in calls for peace and understanding.

"Lai's National Day speech indicates that Taipei is attempting to find ways to offer an olive branch to China while maintaining its assertions of Taiwan's de facto sovereignty," Amanda Hsiao, Crisis Group's Senior Analyst for China, told BI. But China's reaction, "Joint Sword 2024-B," was intense and sent a message.

Regardless of what Lai says or how he approaches relations, Shattuck said, China doesn't trust him.

"It no longer matters what sorts of olive branches a DPP president may extend because Beijing will not accept them," he said, explaining that "Beijing is attempting to accelerate its squeezing of Taiwan's own sovereign territory." That has implications for Taiwan and its international partners.

As the Chinese military continues its incursions in Taiwan's ADIZ, Washington and its allies "need to remain vigilant in protesting these activities so that it is clear that military coercion of Taiwan is unacceptable," Shattuck said.

"It is unrealistic to argue that Taiwan or the United States will be able to stop the PRC aerial and maritime incursions around Taiwan," he and Lewis wrote, but there are options. "Washington," they said, "should work to elevate Taiwan's ability to track the situation around its territory and provide it with the necessary resources to push back as needed."

Translation

中國戰機幾乎抹去了台灣海峽的分界線，創造了危險的新常態 (2/2)

（繼續）

中國的闖入使台灣軍隊疲憊不堪

幾乎每天都有的防空識別區被闖入不僅改變了該地區的現狀，也令到台灣的軍隊疲憊。

2020 年 10 月，時任台灣國防部長Yen Teh-fa 表示，台北空軍和海軍花了近 10 億美元監視中國的出動。此後，台灣調整了違反防空識別區的應對措施，以節省資源，但仍然費力。

Shattuck說，在這種艱難的局勢下，「令人擔憂的是台灣軍事資產的持續退化和台灣軍事人員的流失」。又解釋說中國 “活靈針對” 台灣的軍事能力， “透過淹沒戰場迫使台灣選擇什么事情應該去作出反應” 。

Shattuck表示，如果中國的一項大規模演習突然成為真的進攻，這種退化最終可能會削弱台灣的軍事實力，而美國對台灣的援助是 “長時間被延遲、逾期” ，這可能會阻礙台灣的備戰工作。

 Lewis 和 Shattuck最近寫道： “台灣海峽的中線  -  一條在某種程度上創造了兩岸穩定的邊界 - 事實上已不復存在” ， “台灣無法在所有戰線上反擊這些中國的闖入” 。

他們表示，這是一場消耗戰，並認為雖然中國在台灣週邊的軍事活動“已經常恒化，並且是台海現狀不斷惡化的一部分”，但台北和華盛頓仍然有牌可打。

台灣多年來一直在處理與北京的棘手關係，北京反對執政的民進黨，並給Lai貼上了「分離主義分子」的標籤。

Lai 在就職演說中承諾維護台灣民主作為全球燈塔，呼籲中國停止對台灣的恐嚇。該演講進一步激化了關係，不久之後就出現了「聯合利劍2024-A」。Lai在本月稍早的國慶演講中緩和了言辭，表現出克制地呼籲和平與理解。

危機組織 中國區高級分析師 Amanda Hsiao 告訴BI，“Lai的國慶演講表明，台北正試圖尋找方法向中國伸出橄欖枝，同時維持其對台灣事實上主權的主張。”但中國的「聯合利劍2024-B」反應強烈，並傳遞了一個訊息。

Shattuck說，無論Lai說什麼或他如何處理關係，中國都不信任他。

他說：“民進黨主席可能會伸出什麼樣的橄欖枝已經不再重要，因為北京不會接受它們。”他解釋說，“北京正在試圖加速擠壓台灣自己的主權領土。”這對台灣及其國際夥伴有影響。

Shattuck說，隨著中國軍隊繼續入侵台灣防空識別區，華盛頓及其盟友「需要保持警惕，抗議這些活動，以表明對台灣的軍事脅迫是不可接受的」。

他和Lewis寫道：「認為台灣或美國能夠阻止中國對台灣週邊地區的空中和海上入侵是不切實際的」, 但還是有選擇的。他們表示，「華盛頓應該努力提高台灣追蹤其領土週邊局勢的能力，並為其提供必要的資源，在有需要時進行反擊」。

              So, China’s warplanes are pressuring Taiwan and have all but eliminated an important dividing line, with near-daily incursions creating a dangerous new normal. According to some experts, it is unrealistic to argue that Taiwan or the United States will be able to stop the PRC aerial and maritime incursions around Taiwan. The median line of the Taiwan Strait—a de facto boundary that created some semblance of cross-Strait stability does not exist anymore. I think the chance for a conflict to occur around the median line has increased.