中國戰機幾乎抹去了台灣海峽的分界線，創造了危險的新常態 (1/2)

Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

China's warplanes have all but erased the dividing line in the Taiwan Strait, creating a dangerous new normal (1/2)

Business Insider - Chris Panella

Thu, October 31, 2024 at 12:56 a.m. GMT+8·6 min read

China's warplanes are pressuring Taiwan and have all but eliminated an important dividing line, with near-daily incursions creating a dangerous new normal.

Since 2020, Taiwan has released regular, almost daily updates on incursions in its air defense identification zone by Chinese military aircraft. It has also documented continuous Chinese efforts to degrade the Taiwan Strait median line established in 1955.

Researchers Thomas J. Shattuck, a non-resident fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Fellow, and Benjamin Lewis, co-founder of the PLATracker organization, have tracked increasingly bold Chinese behavior. A review of data from Taiwan revealed that ADIZ incursions over the past four years have shown a growing rejection of the unofficial dividing line put in place for deconfliction.

China's military incursions into Taiwan's ADIZ and its crossings of the median line in the Taiwan Strait have skyrocketed, with the ADIZ incursions climbing from an average of 2.56 aircraft per day four years ago to 11.63 now.

A nation's ADIZ extends far beyond its territorial airspace, but the area is closely monitored for national security purposes. When Chinese aircraft enter Taiwan's de facto ADIZ, it dispatches combat air patrol (CAP) aircraft in response.

In 2021, the Chinese military flew 972 aircraft into Taiwan's ADIZ, and that number nearly doubled in 2022. 1,703 aircraft were recorded in 2023. And 2024 looks to have a record-breaking number, with over 2,000 aircraft documented as of September. They're also no longer limited to a corner of the ADIZ.

Crossings of the median line have become increasingly common since August 2022, when then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi controversially visited Taiwan, and China has been steadily erasing it altogether. In a recent drill surrounding Taiwan, 111 Chinese warplanes crossed it, marking a single-day high. A few years ago, Taiwan might see hundreds cross the line but over months.

"We've become desensitized to high numbers of the military aircraft flying across the median line of the Taiwan Strait," Shattuck told Business Insider. "Five years ago, that was unheard of. Now, it's just another Thursday."

China claims Taiwan as its own territory and hasn't ruled out using its growing military to achieve unification, raising concerns in Taipei, the US, and other Western nations that China could one day enact a blockade or full-scale invasion of Taiwan to force it to give in to Beijing's authority.

Beijing's tactics run the gamut of intimidation and coercion, including political and economic pressure and massive military exercises aimed at forcing the Taiwanese people to reject independence.

Recently, two joint-force drills, "Joint Sword 2024-A" and "Joint Sword 2024-B," saw the Chinese People's Liberation Army effectively surround Taiwan, simulating how it could blockade key ports and areas, assault maritime and ground targets, and seize territory.

During "Joint Sword 2024-B," Taiwan's defense ministry said that a record number of Chinese warplanes, over 150, flew into its ADIZ in one day. In response, Taiwan's new president, Lai Ching-te, said China aims "to undermine stability and the status quo."

(to be continued)

Translation

中國戰機幾乎抹去了台灣海峽的分界線，創造了危險的新常態 (1/2)

中國的戰機正在向台灣施壓，幾乎消除了一條重要的分界線，幾乎每天都有入侵，創造了一種危險的新常態。

自2020年以來，台灣幾乎每天都會定期發布有關中國軍機入侵其防空識別區的最新消息。它也記錄了中國不斷努力削弱 1955 年設立的台灣海峽中線。

外交政策研究所 的非常駐研究員 Thomas J. Shattuck 以及 PLATracker 組織的聯合創始人 Benjamin Lewis 一直在追蹤中國日益大膽的行為。對台灣數據的審查顯示，過去四年的防空識別區入侵表明，越來越多的人無視為消除衝突而設立的非正式分界線。

中國對台灣防空識別區(ADIZ)和穿越台灣海峽中線的軍事入侵數量激增，入侵防空識別區的飛機數量從四年前的平均每天2.56架次上升到現在的11.63架次。

一個國家的防空識別區遠遠超出其領空，但出於國家安全目的，該地區受到密切監視。當中國飛機進入台灣實際上的防空辨識區時，它會派遣戰鬥空中巡邏機（CAP）作為回應。

2021 年，中國軍方有972 架飛機進入台灣防空識別區，這一數字在2022 年幾乎翻了一番。2023年記錄了1,703架飛機。 2024年的數字似乎將破紀錄，截至9月記錄的飛機數量超過2,000架。 飛機都不再局限於ADIZ的某個角落。

自 2022 年 8 月時任眾議院議長Nancy Pelosi頗具爭議地訪問台灣以來，跨越中線的現象變得越來越普遍，而中國一直在穩步地完全消除這中線這。在最近一次圍繞台灣的演習中，有 111 架中國戰機飛越中線，創下單日最高紀錄。幾年前，要在幾個月的時間台灣才看到有超過百次越過這條線。

Shattuck對《商業內幕》表示： “我們對飛越台灣海峽中線的大量軍用飛機已經變得麻木了。” “五年前，這是聞所未聞的。現在，偶然的事變成經常發生。”

中國聲稱台灣是它的領土，並且不排除利用其不斷壯大的軍事力量實現統一，這引起了台北、美國和其他西方國家的擔憂，他們擔心中國有一天可能對台灣實施封鎖或全面入侵，以迫使台灣向北京政權屈服。

北京的策略範圍是恐嚇和脅迫，包括政治和經濟壓力以及大規模軍事演習, 旨在迫使台灣人民拒絕獨立。

近日，「聯合利劍2024-A」和「聯合利劍2024-B」兩次聯演，中國人民解放軍實質上包圍台灣，模擬封鎖重點港口和地區、攻擊海上和地面目標、並奪取領土。

台灣國防部在「聯合利劍2024-B」期間表示，一天之內有超過150架中國戰機飛入其防空辨識區，數量創歷史新高。作為回應，台灣新任總統賴清德表示，中國的目的是「破壞穩定和現狀」。

（待續）

Note:

1. The Foreign Policy Research Institute is an American think tank based in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, that conducts research on geopolitics, international relations, and international security in the various regions of the world and on ethnic conflict, U.S. national security, terrorism, and on think tanks themselves. (Wikipedia)

2. Thomas J. Shattuck is a Senior Program Manager at the University of Pennsylvania’s Perry World House. He is a 2024-25 non-resident WSD-Handa Fellow at the Pacific Forum and a 2024-25 non-resident Research Fellow at the Modern War Institute at West Point. His research includes cross-Strait relations, Taiwanese and Chinese domestic and foreign affairs. Shattuck is a Non-Resident Research Fellow at the Global Taiwan Institute, on top of being a Non-Resident Fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute. (https://thomas-shattuck.com/)

3. The Taiwan Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) (臺灣防空識別區) is an air defense identification zone of the Republic of China, which covers Taiwan Province, its surrounds, and a large portion of the Chinese mainland. A theoretical "median line" was defined in 1955 one year after the zone was established. (Wikipedia)