獨家 - “金磚國家先生”稱，在中國和印度認真對待之前，金磚國家只是神話故事

 Exclusive - BRICS is for the fairies until China and India get serious, 'Mr. BRICS' says

By Guy Faulconbridge

Updated Wed, October 23, 2024 at 11:11 p.m. GMT+8·4 min read

MOSCOW (Reuters) - The idea of the BRICS group ever challenging the U.S. dollar is for the fairies as long as China and India remain so divided and refuse to cooperate on trade, the former Goldman Sachs economist who came up with the BRIC acronym told Reuters.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is using the summit of BRICS leaders to show that Western attempts to isolate Russia over the Ukraine war have failed and that Russia is building ties with the rising powers of Asia.

Then-Goldman Sachs chief economist Jim O'Neill introduced the term BRIC in 2001 in a research paper that underlined the massive growth potential of Brazil, Russia, India and China - and the need to reform global governance to include them.

"The idea that the BRICS can be some genuine global economic club, it's obviously a bit out there with the fairies in the same way that the G7 can be, and it's very disturbing that they see themselves as some kind of alternative global thing, because it's obviously not feasible," O'Neill told Reuters.

"It seems to me basically to be a symbolic annual gathering where important emerging countries, particularly noisy ones like Russia, but also China, can basically get together and highlight how good it is to be part of something that doesn't involve the U.S. and that global governance isn't good enough."

O'Neill, who admitted he would "have Mr. BRICS stamped on my forehead forever", said the BRICS as a group had achieved very little over the past 15 years.

He added that it was not possible to solve truly global issues without the United States and Europe - just as it was not possible for the West to solve truly global issues without China, India and, to a lesser extent, Russia and Brazil.

The BRICS group grew out of meetings between Russia, India and China which then began to meet more formally, eventually adding Brazil, then South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates. Saudi Arabia has yet to formally join.

The group now accounts for 45% of the world's population and 35% of its economy, based on purchasing power parity, though China accounts for more than half of its economic might.

Putin opened the summit on Wednesday by saying that more than 30 states had expressed interest in joining the group but that it was important to strike a balance in any expansion.

Bringing in more members into BRICS would make achieving anything even harder, O'Neill said.

 DOLLAR CHALLENGE?

Russia is seeking to convince BRICS countries to build an alternative platform for international payments that would be immune to Western sanctions.

O'Neill, 67, said people had been talking about alternatives to the dollar since he started out in finance but that none of the countries with the potential to challenge the dollar had done anything to seriously do so.

Any BRICS currency, he said, would be heavily dependent on China while Russia and Brazil would not be significant parts of it, he said.

"If they wanted to be really serious about economic matters, why don't they genuinely pursue less tariff based trade between each other?" O'Neill said.

"I will take the BRICS group seriously when I see signs that the two countries that really matter - China and India - are actually really trying to agree on things, rather than effectively trying to confront each other all the time."

India has tried to curb Chinese investments in the country since a decades old border dispute erupted into a clash between border guards in 2020. The two countries pledged to enhance cooperation on Wednesday in their first formal talks in five years.

Chinese President Xi Jinping told Putin the international situation was gripped by chaos but that Beijing's strategic partnership with Moscow was a force for stability amid the most significant changes seen in a century.

O'Neill said the G20 had failed to become a sinew of truly global governance because the United States and China had both turned inwards since the middle of the last decade.

BRICS, he said, lacked clear objectives and should take on major issues for humanity - such as finding vaccines or drugs against infectious diseases, or fighting climate change.

Translation

獨家 - “金磚國家先生”稱，在中國和印度認真對待之前，金磚國家是神話故事

莫斯科（路透社） - 提出金磚四國縮寫BRIC的前高盛經濟學家告訴路透社，只要中國和印度仍然如此分歧並且拒絕在貿易上合作，金磚國家集團 (BRICS)挑戰美元的想法是神話故事。

俄羅斯總統普京利用金磚國家領導人峰會去表明, 西方因烏克蘭戰爭而孤立俄羅斯的企圖已經失敗，俄羅斯正在與亞洲新興大國建立聯繫。

前任高盛首席經濟學家Jim O'Neill於2001 年在一篇研究論文中引入了“金磚四國”(BRIC) 一詞，強調了巴西、俄羅斯、印度和中國的巨大增長潛力，以及在改革全球治理中有必要將它們納入其中。

O'Neill告訴路透社: 「金磚國家(BRICS)可以成為一個真正的全球經濟俱樂部的想法，顯然有點像七國集團可以成為什麼一樣，有點像神話故事，而且他們將自己視為某種全球性組織的另類選擇，這非常令人不安，因為這顯然是不可行的」。

「在我看來，這基本上是一次象徵性的年度聚會，重要的新興國家，特別是像俄羅斯這樣吵吵鬧鬧的國家，還有中國，基本上可以聚集在一起，強調參與沒有美國的事情是多麼美好, 及全球治理還不夠好」。

O'Neill承認，他將有 “金磚國家先生稱號永遠印在額頭上” ，他表示，金磚國家作為一個整體在過去15年裡取得的成就微乎其微。

他補充說，沒有美國和歐洲，就不可能解決真正的全球問題，就像西方不可能在沒有中國、印度,以及在少些程度下俄羅斯和巴西, 解決全球問題一樣。

金磚國家集團的前身是俄羅斯、印度和中國之間的會議，隨後開始舉行更正式的會議，最終加入了巴西，然後是南非、埃及、衣索比亞、伊朗和阿拉伯聯合酋長國。沙地阿拉伯尚未正式加入。

以購買力平價計算，該集團目前人口佔世界人口的 45%，經濟總量佔全球的 35%，儘管中國佔其經濟實力的一半以上。

普京在周三的峰會開幕式上表示，已有 30 多個國家表示有興趣加入該組織，但重要的是在任何擴張中去保持平衡。

O'Neill表示，金磚國家吸收更多成員將使實現任何一事變得更加困難。

挑戰美元？

俄羅斯正在尋求說服金磚國家建立一個不受西方制裁的替代性的國際支付平台。

67 歲的O'Neill表示，自從他涉足金融界以來，人們一直在談論美元的替代品，但沒有一個有潛力去挑戰美元的國家認真採取任何行動。

他表示，任何金磚國家貨幣都將嚴重依賴中國，而俄羅斯和巴西不會是其重要組成部分。

O'Neill說: “如果他們想真正認真對待經濟問題，為什麼他們不真正追求彼此之間減少有關稅的貿易？”

“當我看到有跡象表明，中國和印度這兩個真正重要的國家實際上正在努力就事情達成一致，而不是一直實質上試圖彼此對抗之時，我就會認真對待金磚國家。”

自從中印數十年的邊界爭端在2020年爆發為邊境人員衝突以來，印度一直試圖限制中國在該國的投資。在週三, 在五年來的首次正式會談中, 兩國承諾加強合作。

中國國家主席習近平告訴普京，國際情勢一片混亂，但北京與莫斯科的戰略夥伴關係是百年來見到最重大變化中的穩定力量。

O'Neill表示，二十國集團未能成為真正的全球治理的支柱，因為美國和中國自上個十年期的中期以來, 都要面對自身利益問題。

他說，金磚國家缺乏明確的目標，它應該為人類解決重大問題，例如尋找傳染病的疫苗或藥物，或應對氣​​候變遷。

So, about building alternatives to the US dollar O'Neill says that none of the countries in BRIC has the potential to challenge the dollar. Any BRICS currency would be heavily dependent on China. He has rightly pointed out that if BRICS want to be serious about economic matters, why do not they genuinely pursue less tariff-based trade between each other. Apparently, the more membership BRICS have, the more difficult for them to do something unanimously.