Paul Krugman警告中國正走向 “非常嚴重的下滑”，因為習近平聽起來更像是共和黨人而不是共產主義者

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

Paul Krugman warns China is headed for a 'very nasty fall' as Xi Jinping sounds more like a Republican than a communist

Filip De Mott

Wed, September 6, 2023 at 5:44 p.m. PDT

If China hopes to turn its economic fortunes around, it will have to be more faithful to its communist roots, Paul Krugman said.

"China's an odd place ideologically. It's not actually a communist society by any normal measure," the Nobel economist said in a New York Times audio essay. "On one side, they don't like to just giving people money. They don't like people being financially independent, because they still want the government to be in control."

But Beijing's refusal to provide its consumers and businesses with some kind of aid, such as through a large stimulus program, means that its current economic challenges are free to expand.

Deflation, massive debt, falling growth, and rising unemployment have all been major themes in China this year, as consumers have largely limited spending. Though this is the outcome of necessity, Krugman also cited a strong savings culture stemming from Chinese history.

In response to these issues, both investors and analysts have called for a stimulus solution. Instead, Chinese leadership has opted for smaller support measures, most of which have had little impact. These range from interest rate cuts to easing restrictions on property purchases.

"China is facing a major economic crisis, and they've run to the limits of the things that's been doing to keep its economy afloat," Krugman said. "Unless the Chinese government is willing to face up to the need to do something very different, then China is headed for a very nasty fall."

Some of the government's wariness around stimulus is also a reflection of President Xi Jinping's own ideology. Despite leading the Communist Party of China, Krugman says the authoritarian leader seems more aligned with a conservative Republican, citing how Xi has condemned the "dangers of welfarism."

While this "puritanical attitude" has not been an issue during periods of high growth, Beijing has to allow its populace some spending independence if it wants to revive its economy, Krugman argues.

If not, the economic crisis has the potential to turn into a political one, as China's unemployed citizens begin to doubt their leadership. As Beijing's legitimacy comes from having overseen seismic growth in the past few decades, an abrupt end to that trend will cause problems.

"China's proud that it has a regime that is at a deep level, hypocritical. It preaches Marxism and equality and the coming communist utopia, and practices rapacious, highly unequal capitalism," Krugman said.

Translation

Paul Krugman 表示，如果中國希望扭轉其經濟命運，就必須更加忠實於其共產主義根源。

這位諾貝爾經濟學家在《紐約時報》的一篇音頻文章中表示： “從意識形態上來說，中國是一個奇怪的地方。從任何正常標準來看，它實際上都不是一個共產主義社會” 。 “一方面，他們不喜歡只派錢給人民。他們不喜歡人們經濟獨立，因為他們仍然希望政府掌控一切。”

但北京拒絕向消費者和企業提供某種援助，例如通過大規模刺激計劃，這意味著其當前的經濟挑戰正在不斷擴大。

通貨緊縮、巨額債務、增長放緩和失業率上升都是中國今年的主題，因為消費者的支出很大程度上受到限制。 儘管這是必然的結果，Krugman 還指出源自中國歷史的強大儲蓄文化。

針對這些問題，投資者和分析師都呼籲採取刺激解決方案。 相反，中國領導層選擇了規模較小的支持措施，其中大多數措施收效甚微。 這些措施包括降息和放寬購房限制。

Krugman說： “中國正面臨一場重大的經濟危機，他們為保持經濟發展所做的努力已經達到了極限” 。 “除非中國政府願意正視需要做一些非常不同的事情，否則中國將走向非常嚴重的衰退。”

政府對刺激措施的一些謹慎態度也反映了習近平主席本人的意識形態。 Krugman表示，儘管這位獨裁領導人領導著中國共產黨，但習似乎更多向保守派共和黨人向齊，並引用了習近平如何譴責 “福利主義的危險” 。

Krugman認為，雖然這種 “清教徒態度” 在高增長時期並不是一個問題，但如果北京想要重振經濟，就必須允許民眾有一定的消費獨立性。

如果不是這樣，經濟危機就有可能轉變為政治危機，因為中國的失業公民開始懷疑他們的領導能力。 由於北京的合法性來自於過去幾十年裡成就出震撼的增長，這種趨勢的突然結束將引發問題。

Krugman說： “中國為其擁有一個在深層來說, 虛偽的政權而感到自豪。它宣揚馬克思主義、平等和即將到來的共產主義烏托邦，但實行貪婪的、高度不平等的資本主義。”

              So, Krugman says that "China is facing a major economic crisis, and they've run to the limits of the things that's been doing to keep its economy afloat," and that "Unless the Chinese government is willing to face up to the need to do something very different, then China is headed for a very nasty fall”. Let us wait and see how true wil Krugman’s prediction be.

Note:

Paul Robin Krugman, born on February 28 1953, is an American economist and the Distinguished Professor of Economics at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. In 2008, Krugman was the winner of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences for his contributions to New Trade Theory and New Economic Geography. The Prize Committee cited Krugman's work explaining the patterns of international trade and the geographic distribution of economic activity, by examining the effects of economies of scale and of consumer preferences for diverse goods and services. (Wikipedia)