Renminbi had caused a stir to US dollar supremacy

Recently Nihon Keizai Shimbun Electronic Edition reported the following:

人民元、ドル覇権に一石　独自決済網89カ国地域に

米制裁対象のロシアやトルコなど取り込む

経済 中国・台湾

2019/5/19 2:00日本経済新聞　電子版

米国の金融制裁は人民元建て取引の拡大を促す一因になっている

人民元の国際化を狙う中国独自の国際決済システムが存在感を高めている。2015年10月の稼働後、銀行の参加が89カ国・地域の865行に広がっていることが日本経済新聞の調べでわかった。米国が経済制裁の対象としたロシアやトルコなどを取り込み、18年の取引額は前年比8割増の26兆元（410兆円）に達した。米国の対外強硬路線を逆手に取り、ドルの覇権にくさびを打ち込み始めた。

■事実上の国際標準に対抗

現在の国際決済は、ベルギーに本部を置く国際銀行間通信協会（SWIFT）のシステムを通じて送金情報をやり取りするのが主流だ。その決済額は1日あたり5兆～6兆ドル（550兆～660兆円）とされ、事実上の国際標準になっている。うち4割がドル決済で、SWIFTがドル覇権を支えている状況だ。

これに対し中央銀行の中国人民銀行が導入したのが人民元の「国際銀行間決済システム」（CIPS）。英語での手続きとし、取引ごとの即時決済を採用して人民元決済の間口を広げた。システムに口座を持つ「直接参加行」と、直接行を介してつながる「間接参加行」で構成し、いずれかと取引すれば中国企業の口座に簡単に資金を移せる。

日本経済新聞はCIPSの普及度を探るため、運営母体の跨境銀行間支付清算（上海）の発表文をもとに参加金融機関数を地域別に分析。人民銀などが断続的に公表する情報も独自に集計した。すると人民元決済が水面下で浸透しつつある様子が見えてきた。金額ベースだけでなく、取引件数を見ても、18年は144万件と、前年比で15%増えた。

■米の制裁国を取り込む

19年4月時点で中国系を含め、世界で865行が参加。所在地別でみると、日本は三菱UFJ、みずほのメガ2行に地銀21行、外国銀の東京支店7つをあわせた計30行が参加している。メガ2行の中国法人は直接行にもなっている。

目立つのは米国の制裁対象国だ。ロシアは18年12月にモスクワ信用銀行が加盟し、全体では23行が名を連ねた。ロシア企業が中国からの輸入代金の支払いに人民元を用いる比率は14年の9%から17年は15%に上昇。ロシア中央銀行は18年9月時点で、外貨準備に占める人民元の比率を14%と、17年9月の1%から大幅に高めた。ドル比率は46%から23%に低下した。

米国から経済制裁が科されていたトルコも11行が加わる。18年11月には複数のイランの銀行がSWIFTへの接続を遮断された。イランの銀行はまだCIPSに参加していないが、英運用会社チャールズ・スタンレーのゲイリー・ホワイト氏は「米国にドルの利用を制限されると迂回手段を探す必要がでてくる」と指摘する。CIPSがその受け皿としての機能を一段と発揮するとの見立てだ。

■「一帯一路」沿線国にも広がる

もうひとつ顕著なのは、インフラ事業や資源開発で中国が影響力を強める国々だ。南アフリカやケニアなどアフリカ諸国からは北米よりも多い31行が接続する。中国が提唱する広域経済圏構想「一帯一路」に参画する国が増えるほど、人民元決済の需要は高まる。

もっとも人民元の基軸通貨への道のりは遠い。SWIFTの資金決済額に占める人民元のシェアは19年3月時点で1.89%と、ドル、ユーロ、英ポンド、円に次ぐ5位。1日に3千万件以上の電文をやり取りするSWIFTに比べ、CIPSの規模はなお小さい。

とはいえ、米国と対立する国々のドル離れは進んでいる。中国上海市場では18年3月に人民元建て原油先物取引が始まり、ニューヨークやロンドンから一部の取引を奪い始めている。

今後も経済制裁の影響を避けたり、米国に国際取引を把握されないようにするため、ドル以外の通貨で決済する手段を確保する動きは広がりそうだ。CIPSのネットワークは確実に広がっており、その潜在力はあなどれない。米国が威圧的な外交姿勢を強めれば、自らドルの基軸通貨としての絶対的地位を危うくする可能性がある。

（黄田和宏、久保田昌幸、上海=張勇祥、香港=木原雄士）

Translation

Renminbi had caused a stir to US dollar supremacy – being used for payment in a network of 89 countries and regions, including US sanctioned targets of Russia and Turkey

Financial sanctions in the US were contributing to the expansion of RMB transactions

China's unique international payment system, which aimed at the internationalization of the yuan, had grown in presence. According to a survey by the Nihon Keizai Shimbun, it had expanded to 865 banks in 89 countries and regions since the beginning of October 2015.  Russia, Turkey, and other countries which were subjected to economic sanctions of the US had their transaction reached 18 trillion yuan (¥ 410 trillion) in 2018, up 80% from the previous year. It took a twist in face of US hard-line overseas and began to cast a wedge on the dollar's supremacy.

■  countering de facto international standards

In current international settlement, it was the mainstream to exchange remittance information through a system of the Society for Worldwide Inter-bank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) which had its headquarters in Belgium. The settlement amount was 5 to 6 trillion dollars (550 to 660 trillion yen) per day, which was a de facto international standard. Forty percent of them were in dollar settlement, and SWIFT was supporting the dollar.

On the other hand, China's central bank, the People's Bank of China, introduced the RMB's " China International Payment Service" (CIPS). Doing the procedures in English, it adopted an immediate settlement for each transaction that would broaden the scope of RMB settlement. It consisted of a "direct participation line" with an account in the system and an "indirect participation line" connected via a direct line. One could easily transfer funds to a Chinese company's account by trading with one of them.

The Nihon Keizai Shimbun analyzed the number of participating financial institutions by region based on the statement of the China International Payment Service Corp. (Shanghai) as a governing body in order to find out the degree of diffusion of CIPS. Information collected by the People's Bank and others was also intermittently compiled independently. As a result we could see how RMB settlement was spreading under the surface. Not only in monetary terms, but also in terms of the number of transactions, it increased by 15% over the previous year to 1.44 million in 2018.

■ taking in countries sanctioned by the US

As of April 19, 865 banks in the world including the Chinese system had participated. By location, Japan had 30 banks in total, including two mega banks of Mitsubishi UFJ and Mizuho had 21 regional banks, and seven foreign branch banks in Tokyo.  Chinese corporation in the two mega banks were also direct banks.

The one that stood out was the US sanctioned countries. Russia became a member of the Moscow Credit Bank in December 2018 with a total of 23 banks. The percentage of Russian companies using RMB to pay for imports from China increased from 9% in 2014 years to 15% in 2017 years. As of September 18th, the Russian Central Bank raised the ratio of RMB to foreign exchange reserves to 14%, which was significantly higher than 1% in September 2017. The dollar ratio dropped from 46% to 23%.

In Turkey, which had been sanctioned by the United States, 11 banks would be added. In November 2018, several Iranian banks were disconnected from SWIFT. Iranian banks have not yet joined CIPS, but Gary White of a British management company Charles Stanley pointed out that if the use of the US dollar was restricted, it would be necessary to look for a detour. It was assumed that CIPS could further function as an institution to take over the position.

■ extending to countries along the route of "One Belt One Road"

Another notable example was the countries which China had a greater influence in infrastructure projects and resource development. From African countries such as South Africa and Kenya, there were 31 banks connected, which was more than in North America. The demand for RMB settlement would increase as more countries participated in China's "One-belt one-road" regional economic area plan.

However, the path to the RMB to become a core currency was still far away. RMB's share of SWIFT's cash settlement amounted to 1.89% as of March 2019, standing at the 5th after the dollar, the Euro, the pound sterling and the yen. CIPS was still smaller than SWIFT which dealt with more than 30 million transaction messages a day.

However, the dollar gap between countries that conflicted with the United States was growing. In China's Shanghai market, the RMB-denominated crude oil futures trade began in March 2018 and had begun to steal some of the trades from New York and London.

In future, it was likely to have movements to secure means of settlement in currencies other than the dollar in order to avoid the effects of economic sanctions and prevent the United States from grasping international transactions. The CIPS network had certainly expanded, and its potential should not be underestimated. If the United States intensified its threatening diplomatic stance, it could jeopardize the dollar's absolute position as a key currency.

          It seems that to set up CIPS is a way for China to challenge the domination of US in world trade. It is one of the many directions that China is trying to challenge the existing world order.