Chinese groups – to invest in Southeast Asia to avoid sanctions – a base to avoid US tariff

Recently the Nihon Keizai Shimbun Electronic Edition reported the following:

中国勢、制裁避け東南アへ投資　米関税逃れる拠点に

米中衝突 中国・台湾 東南アジア 北米 アジアBiz

2019/6/8 2:00

【ハノイ=大西智也、上海=張勇祥】米中貿易戦争の激化で、中国企業の東南アジア投資が急増している。ベトナムでは2019年1～5月の中国からの新規投資認可額が前年同期と比べて6倍弱に拡大した。タイでも1～3月に2倍に増えている。米国の対中制裁を回避する動きはグローバル企業で広がるが、中国企業が率先して自国から東南アジアに生産拠点をシフトしていることが浮き彫りになった。企業の「脱出」が続けば、中国の雇用や消費の新たな重荷になりかねない。

中国からベトナムへの新規投資の認可額は1月から5月20日までの間に15億6000万ドル（約1700億円）に達し、前年同期比で5.6倍に増えた。1～4月の4カ月間で既に18年通年の実績（12億ドル）を上回り、さらに伸びが続いている。

中国に次ぐ韓国は5月時点で10億ドル。17、18年と2年連続でトップだった日本は7億ドルにとどまる。このペースが続けば19年はベトナム政府が国・地域別の内訳を公表した07年以降、中国が初めて新規投資のトップになる可能性がある。

タイでも中国からの投資が増えている。タイ投資委員会（BOI）が1～3月に認可した中国からの直接投資は前年同期比2倍の292億バーツ（約1000億円）に上る。

中国企業は米国による制裁関税の影響を受けない代替拠点の確保の必要性に迫られている。アジア開発銀行によると「中国企業はここ数年、アジアの新興国への投資を増やしてきたが、貿易摩擦によってその傾向が加速した」。なかでもベトナムは中国に地理的に近く、人件費も安いため一番の「代替地」として選ばれている。

野村ホールディングスが3日発表したリポートによると、貿易戦争の激化で「ベトナムが最もプラスの影響を受ける」。ベトナムの19年の国内総生産（GDP）見通しのうち7.9%が貿易戦争の恩恵だと分析し、国・地域別では2位の台湾（2.1%）、3位のチリ（1.5%）を大きく引き離す。

フィリピンはドゥテルテ政権になり、対中関係改善という特殊要因で中国からの投資が急拡大している。18年11月には中国の習近平（シー・ジンピン）国家主席がマニラを訪問し29件の協力文書を交わした。フィリピン統計庁によると、18年の中国からの投資認可額は17年に比べ21倍超の506億ペソ（約1060億円）になり、17年1位の日本を抜き首位に立った。

中国からの生産移転が進む中、トランプ米政権は中国以外の国・地域との貿易不均衡にも懸念を示している。ベトナムの19年1～5月の対米輸出額は衣料品などを中心に前年同期比28%増となった。対米輸出が膨らめば米国が追加関税の対象国を増やす可能性もある。

上場20社超、生産移転へ　揺らぐ「世界の工場」

中国の「世界の工場」の地位が揺らぎつつある。中国上場企業のうち2018年以降、海外移転や生産拡大を実施、表明した企業は20社を超える。家電や家具といった現行の制裁関税の対象だけでなく、制裁拡大を見据える企業も増えている。

自動車部品や精密機械関連企業が集積しつつあるベトナム北部の港湾都市ハイフォン。中国企業の幹部がひっきりなしに情報収集や工場用地の視察に訪れる。中国国境までトラックで約4時間。生産拠点移設の有力地として期待されているためだ。

中国企業と接触した国際物流大手の幹部は「中国企業の貿易戦争への危機感をひしひしと感じる」と話す。タイやインドなどと比較しつつ「いつでも移転できるよう準備を進めているようだ」。

動き始めた企業の一つが広東省深圳の機器メーカー、和而泰だ。5月15日の取締役会でベトナムに生産拠点を設置することを決めた。500万ドル（約5億4000万円）を投じ現地法人を設立、家電向けの制御機器などを生産する見込み。羅珊珊取締役は「ベトナム進出は国際化が目的だが、同時に米中摩擦回避にも役立つ」と語る。

1月には米アップルのワイヤレスイヤホンの組み立てを担う電子機器大手、歌爾声学（ゴーテック）がベトナム北部バクニン省に2億6000万ドルをかけて工場を建設する認可を得た。

テレビ大手のTCL集団も「9月頃にベトナムで年300万台規模の工場が稼働する」（TCL）という。ベトナムメディアによると、パソコン世界最大手レノボ・グループは米国向けパソコン部品工場をベトナムの首都ハノイの近郊に建設することを検討している。

トランプ米政権は5月10日、家具や家電など2000億ドル相当の中国製品に対する制裁関税を10%から25%に引き上げた。米政権はほぼ全ての中国製品が対象となる「第4弾」を計画していることも表明している。

貿易戦争の長期化が避けられないとみて、生産体制の抜本的な再編に踏み切る中国企業は増えている。電気設備メーカーの通潤装備は「制裁関税が10%だった時は3～5%の値下げでしのいだが、25%の関税は打撃だ」と明かす。第4弾が発動されれば、中国企業の海外移転が一段と加速する公算が大きい。

中国企業を誘致しようという動きも進む。フィリピン大手財閥のアヤラは4月、北部ルソン島に中国企業向けの工業団地を設立する方針を明らかにした。合弁相手の中国企業と既に交渉しており、数年内の着工を目指す。

台湾や米国、日本勢では既に生産拠点を中国外に移す動きが広がる。

台湾の電子機器受託製造サービス（EMS）、仁宝電脳工業の翁宗斌・総経理は「米国向けルーターやデスクトップパソコンの一部を台湾やベトナムに移転した」と表明した。電源装置大手の光宝科技、EMS最大手の鴻海（ホンハイ）精密工業のように、台湾回帰を打ち出す企業も多い。

日本勢では複合機大手のリコーとシャープがタイへの生産移管を決めた。京セラもベトナムへの移管を検討している。

ロイター通信によると、米靴メーカーのブルックスは1月にランニングシューズの生産の大半を中国からベトナムに移すことを決定した。中国米国商会が5月に実施した調査では、中国で活動する米国企業の4割が生産拠点を中国の外に移転したか検討中だと答えた。

生産移転が続けば、中国国内の雇用や投資に影響が出る可能性も否定できない。ブルックスの場合、19年末までに約8000人の雇用が中国からベトナムに移る。

中国国務院（政府）は5月22日、雇用対策を一元的に管理する「就業工作領導小組」を設置、胡春華副首相がトップに就いたと発表した。政府は雇用情勢は良好としているが、企業業績の回復は鈍く、賃金は伸び悩んでいるとの見方が多い。領導小組の設置は習近平（シー・ジンピン）指導部の警戒感を反映している。

Translation

 [Hanoi = Tomoya Onishi, Shanghai = Zhang Yu Xiang] With the intensification of the US-China trade war, Southeast Asian investment from Chinese companies was rapidly increasing. In Vietnam, the amount of new investment from China approved from January to May 2019 had expanded nearly six times compared to the same period last year. Thailand had doubled from January to March. While the move to avoid US sanctions against China had spread among international companies, it had become clear that Chinese companies were taking the lead in shifting production bases from home to Southeast Asia. If this "escape" of the company continued, it could be a new burden on China's employment and consumption.

The amount of approved new investment from China to Vietnam reached $ 1.56 billion (approximately ¥ 170 billion) between January and May 20, a 5.6-fold increase over the same period last year. In the four months from January to April, it had already surpassed the full-year amount ($ 1.2 billion) for 2018 and continued to grow.

Korea came after China at $ 1 billion in May. Japan, which had topped two consecutive years for 2017 and 2018, remained at $ 700 million. If this pace continued, China might be at the top for new investment for the first time since 2007 when the Vietnamese government released a statistical breakdown by country and region.

Investment from China in Thailand was also increasing. Direct investment from China approved by the Thai Investment Commission (BOI) in January-March doubled to 29.2 billion baht (approximately 100 billion yen) compared to the same period last year.

Chinese companies were being pressured by the need to secure alternative sites that were not subjected to US sanctions. According to the Asian Development Bank, "Chinese companies have increased their investment in emerging Asian countries in recent years, but the trend has been accelerated due to trade frictions." Above all, Vietnam was selected as the best alternative site because it was geographically close to China and the labor cost was low.

According to a report released by Nomura Holdings on the 3rd, “Vietnam is positively affected most” by the intensifying trade war. Of Vietnam's 2019 gross domestic product (GDP) forecast, it was analyzed that 7.9% would be the benefit of the trade war, and a far distance from Taiwan that was in the second place (2.1%) and Chile in the third place (1.5%).

After the Philippines had a Duterte government, investment from China was rapidly expanding due to the special factor of improving relations with China. In November 2006 Xi Jinping the State Chairman signed 29 cooperation documents when visited Manila. According to the Philippine Statistical Office, in 2018 China's investment permit amounted to 50.6 billion pesos (approximately 106 billion yen), 21 times more than 2017, replacing Japan that was in 1st place in 2017.

While production transfer from China were progressing, the US Trump administration was also concerned about trade imbalances with countries and regions outside China. Vietnam's exports to the US in January-May 2019 increased 28 percent from the same period last year, mainly in clothing. If exports to the US expanded, the United States might increase the number of countries that would subject to additional tariffs.

More than 20 listed companies, production transfer shook "Factory of the world"

China's "Factory in the world" status was shaking. Among the listed companies in China, more than 20 companies had implemented overseas relocation and expansion of production since 2018. Not only companies such as home appliances and furniture that were currently targeted for sanction tariff, but also those companies that might be target at in an expanded sanction.

Hai Phong was a port city in northern Vietnam where auto parts and precision machinery related companies were agglomerating.  Chinese company executives kept visiting here for information gathering and factory sites inspection without stopping. It took about 4 hours by truck to the Chinese border. It was expected to be a major site for relocation of production bases.

An executive of a major international logistics company who had made contact with Chinese companies said, " Chinese companies feel a sense of crisis over the trade wars ", "It looks like that they are preparing to move at any time" as compared to Thailand, India etc.

One of the companies that had started to move was Hé Er Tài, an equipment manufacturer in Shenzhen of Guangdong Province. It decided to establish a production base in Vietnam at the board of directors meeting on May 15. It planned to invest $ 5 million (approximately 540 million yen) to establish a local subsidiary and to manufacture control devices for home appliances. Luo Shānshān the director said, "The purpose of entering Vietnam is to internationalize, but at the same time it helps to avoid US-China friction."

In January, electronics giant Gotech, which was responsible for the assembly of Apple's wireless earphones, had been approved to build a factory for $ 260 million in Bak Nin province in northern Vietnam.

A major TV maker, TCL, also said, "A factory with a capacity of 3 million units will be operating in Vietnam around September". According to the Vietnamese media, Lenovo group, the world's largest PC company, was considering building a PC parts factory for the United States near Hanoi, the capital of Vietnam.

On May 10, the US Trump administration raised sanctions on Chinese products such as furniture and home appliances worth $ 200 billion from 10 percent to 25 percent. The US administration had also stated that it planned a "fourth" wave that would cover almost all Chinese products.

A growing number of Chinese companies were taking a radical restructuring of their production systems, considering that the protracted trade war could not be avoided. According to the manufacturer of electrical equipment, " when the sanction duty was 10%, we endure a price cut of 3 to 5%, but 25% duty is a blow." If the fourth wave was initiated, overseas transfer of Chinese companies would likely accelerate further.

There was also a move to attract Chinese companies. Ayala, a major philanthropist in the Philippines, announced in April that it planned to set up an industrial park for Chinese companies in northern Luzon. Negotiation had already made with a joint venture partner Chinese company aiming at starting construction within a few years.

Groups in Taiwan, the United States, and Japan were already moving their production bases outside China.

Wēng Zōngbīn the General Manager of Rén Bǎo Computer Industry Co., Ltd., as one of the Taiwan's contractor for electronic manufacturing service (EMS), announced that "part of the router and desktop PC for the US has been moved to Taiwan and Vietnam." Guāng Bǎo Science & Technology Co., Ltd., as a major power supply company, and also Hóng Hǎi Precision Industry, as the largest EMS company, were together with many companies like them working towards returning to Taiwan.

Among Japanese companies, multi-function printer major makers Ricoh and also Sharp decided to transfer production to Thailand. Kyocera was also considering transferring control to Vietnam.

According to Reuters, US shoemaker Brooks decided to move most of its running shoe production from China to Vietnam in January. According to a survey conducted in May by the Chinese American Chamber of Commerce, 40% of US companies operating in China said that they were considering whether to relocate their production bases outside China.

If production transfer continued, there was no denying that employment and investment in China might be affected. In the case of Brooks, about 8,000 jobs would be transferred from China to Vietnam by the end of 2019.

On May 22, the State Council of China (Government) announced that it had established a "Work Employment Leading Group" to centrally manage employment measures, and Deputy Prime Minister Hu Chunhua had taken up the lead. Although the government regarded the employment situation as favorable, recovery in corporate performance was sluggish and there were many views that wages were stagnating. The setting up of the Leading Group reflected the wariness of Xi Jinping’s leadership.

              So, with the moving out of so many factories, pressure is mounting on the employment situation inside China. How China would respond to the situation is an interesting question.