"Job-hunting ranking" TOP 100 chosen by arts students

 Recently Toyo Keizai Electronic Edition reported the following:

Toyo economic

文系就活生が選ぶ｢就職人気ランキング｣TOP 100

2年連続1位ANA､2位JAL…エアライン人気続く

宇都宮 徹 : 東洋経済 記者

著者フォロー

2019/05/26 5:10

文系学生が選んだ就職人気ランキングは、2年連続で1位ANA、2位JALという順位になった （撮影：尾形文繁）

就活生が関心を抱く企業はどこか――。その端的な指標としてわかるのが、就活生の投票によって算出した、就職人気ランキングだろう。

4月12日付の配信記事「2万人の就活生が選んだ『就職人気ランキング』」を皮切りに、これまで、男子学生、女子学生、理系学生ごとの人気企業の傾向を見てきた。今回は、文系就活生を対象にした、「就職人気ランキング・文系学生版」の上位100社を紹介していきたい。

ランキングは、文化放送キャリアパートナーズ就職情報研究所の調査を基にしている。同社の就職サイト「ブンナビ！」に登録している学生のうち2万2028人（うち文系1万8424人）が回答した結果だ。調査期間は2018年10月1日から2019年3月31日までとなっている。

ランキング表には、2020年卒・前半の総合順位と、昨年（2019年卒・前半）の文系順位を掲載している。「前半」とは、同調査が就活の「前半」と「後半」の年に2回実施しており、今回は前半の結果だ。

就職活動の「前半」の段階では、まだまだ憧れやイメージが強い。一方、実際の説明会や面接を経た「後半」とでは、企業へのイメージも変わってくる。それぞれのタイミングで調査を行い、傾向の違いについても分析を行っている。なお、後半の結果は7月頃に発表する予定だ。

エアラインや旅行業に人気集まる

順位を見ていこう。1位は全日本空輸（ANA）、2位は日本航空（JAL）と、総合ランキングと同じ結果になった。文系の投票比率が高いため、総合ランキングに近い結果になりやすい。ただ、2年連続で同じ結果になっており、エアライン業界の人気が引き続き強いことがわかる。

3位はJTBグループ。総合では8位だが、文系学生からの人気が高かった。旅行業はインバウンドの拡大などにより、成長が見込めるだけでなく、メディアや出版、情報システムなどグループ内で旅行を軸に多様なビジネスを展開している。そうした選択肢が多いことも人気の1つである。

4位は日本生命保険と昨年の文系5位からワンランクアップ、反対に5位みずほフィナンシャルグループは、昨年の文系4位から順位を下げた。採用数削減などに端を発した、就活生の銀行離れだが、男子学生を中心に人気は底堅く、12位の三菱UFJ銀行と合わせて、文系のランキングで上位に踏みとどまっている。

6位は大和証券グループで、7位は理系1位の明治グループ（明治・Meiji Seika ファルマ）が入った。昨年の文系22位から大きく順位を上げており、文系学生にも人気になってきているようだ。

今年は総合商社の人気の高まりが顕著だったが、文系ランキングでも8位伊藤忠商事（昨年18位）や、11位丸紅（昨年94位）と、かなり順位を上げている。

以下、トップ10には、9位大日本印刷、10位博報堂／博報堂DYメディアパートナーズが入った。

すでに就職活動は終盤に入っており、各社の内定動向調査によれば、6月の「選考解禁」を前に、すでに半数程度の就活生が内定を得ている。そんな売り手市場の就職活動を経て、学生の企業の見方はどう変化するのか？ 引き続きその動向を注目していきたい。

Translation

Job hunting students interested in what of a company? For that it was calculated, as a simple index, by the votes of the job-hunting students.

All started with the April 12 released article “The Job-Hunting Popularity Index, which is selected by 20,000 job-hunting students,” we had seen trends in popular companies based on boys, girls and science students. This time, we would like to introduce the top 100 companies in the "Job Ranking and Student Edition" for liberal arts students in job-hunting.

The rankings were based on a survey of the Cultural Broadcasting Career Partners Employment Information Research Institute. Among the students registered on this company's job site "Bun Navi!", 22,028 people (including 18,424 people of the arts stream) responded. The survey period was from October 1, 2018 to March 31, 2019.

In the ranking table, we listed the arts stream rankings of graduates in combination of the first half of 2020 and last year (the first half of those graduated in 2019). The “first half” referred to the survey conducted twice in one year, one in the “first half” and one in “second half” in job-hunting, and this was the result of the first half.

At the "first half" stage of job-hunting, the aspirations and images were still strong. On the other hand, in the second half after the actual briefing session and interview, the image on a company could changed. Surveys were conducted at each timing, and differences in trends were also analyzed. The second half would be announced in July.

Popular for airlines and travel

Let's look at the rankings, in the first place was All Nippon Airways (ANA), and in the second place was Japan Airlines (JAL), these were the same as the overall ranking. Because the voting ratio of the arts stream was high, it was likely to be near the overall ranking. However, as the results were the same for two consecutive years, it showed that the popularity of the airline industry continued to be strong.

The third place was the JTB group. It ranked eighth in the overalls, but it was popular among the arts stream students. The travel industry was expanding not only with growth in inbound, but it also developed various businesses centered on travel within the group, such as media, publishing and information systems. As there were many options inside, thus making it became a popular one.

Nippon Life Insurance Co., Ltd. ranked fourth by ascending from No. 5 in the arts stream of last year, and conversely, the Mizuho Financial Group was in the fifth dropping from last year’s No. 4 place in the arts stream. Although started by a decline in hiring numbers and the like, thus causing a staying away from banks in job-hunting, their popularity among male students was still firm, and along with the 12th-place Mitsubishi UFJ Bank, they were remained at the top of the humanities stream rankings.

The sixth place was the Daiwa Securities Group, and the seventh place was at the first-ranked in the science stream: the Meiji group (Meiji Seika Pharma). It had risen significantly from the 22nd place in the arts stream last year and seemed to be also popular among arts students.

This year the popularity of general trading companies was remarkable. Itochu ranked 8th (18th last year) in the arts stream and Marubeni in the 11th place (94th last year), both went up the ranking quite a bit.

Following the above, in the top 10, it would include Dai Nippon Printing in the 9th and  Hakuhodo / Hakuhodo DY Media Partners at the 10^th.

Job hunting activities were already in the final stages, and according to this company's official trend survey, about half of the job seekers had already had their job offer before June's “selection disclosing”. After the job-hunting activity which was now at a seller market, how would the student's perspective on enterprises changed? We would like to keep an eye on that trend.

       It is interesting to note that airline companies are at the top of the ranking in job-hunting among arts students.

Model guns made in Japan (3)

Model gun of Colt .45 M1911A1 – a regular version made by MGC

MGC Colt .45 A1911A1 kit model

The above is a box of model gun kit of Government Colt .45 M1911A1 at 1/1 scale made by MGC in the 1980s.  The Japanese words 組立キットモデル (Assembling Kit Model) are written on the right-hand upper corner of the box.

Patent information of the Colt .45 is marked on the gun slide

In the 1980s Modelgun Corporation (MGC) manufactured several kinds of model kits based on the Colt .45 1911 model, including the assembled model and the unassembled model. For the 1911A1 model gun discussed here, on its gun slide, it was marked with following wording: “COLT’S PT F.A. MFG. CO HARTFORD. CT. U.S.A.”. Also, it showed the patent of this gun as: “PATENTED APR 20.1897 SEP.9.1902 DE.19.1905 FEB.14.1911. AUG 19.1913”. If a buyer is looking for a smooth cap-firing function model gun, this gun can satisfy the needs (I call it trigger happy). But for those serious collectors who also pay attention to the internal functioning of the parts, this 1911A1 model gun would be inadequate.

A cartridge is being ejected from the Colt 45

When MGC designed this model gun in the 1980s, it gave priority to the cap-firing functioning. This gun can extract a spent cartridge smoothly just like the real gun when firing, yet it cannot be dis-assembled (field stripping) following the steps of the real thing. This model is less true to the real gun’s design when compared the Colt.45 1970s Series made by the same model gun company which was introduced in my blog on 7th June 2019. When compare these two models, several major differences can be observed:  first is the magazine catch, the 1911A1 model uses a thin metal sheet instead of a small spring to provide the re-bouncing force needed to hold the magazine in place. Second the 1911A1 model cannot be field stripped because the gun’s disassemble method is different from the real gun. I think the reason is that such a design could reduce the production cost. Third, the cartridge extracting system in 1911A1 is much simplified by using only a metal plate when compared with the 1970’s Series which uses an independent extractor. Fourth, the hand grip of the 1911A1 is shorter than it should be.

The magazine catch (note the false screw and the metal plate)

The Colt .45 1911A1 is on the left

When I compare the drawing on the internal parts of the two guns, I notice several major differences. First, the 70’ Series uses a barrel push (number 13 in the legend) which is the key part to start field stripping the whole gun just like the real thing, while the M1911A1 model uses a top ring (number 4 in the legend) thus making it impossible to do the field stripping easily. The second major difference is the cartridge extracting device. The extractor (number 11) in the 70’s series is simplified into a firing-plate (number 25) in the 1911A1. The third part is the magazine catch. In the 70’ Series it uses a spring (number 20) while in 1911A1 it is simplified into a thin metal sheet (number 11).

Internal map of the Colt .45 70'Series

Internal map of the Colt .45 1911A1

In conclusion, it can be seen that MGC was flexible in coping with the market demand. For the Colt .45 1911 model guns, this company could produce a cheaper model and a more superior model to meet the expectation of different consumers groups.

Chinese groups – to invest in Southeast Asia to avoid sanctions – a base to avoid US tariff

Recently the Nihon Keizai Shimbun Electronic Edition reported the following:

中国勢、制裁避け東南アへ投資　米関税逃れる拠点に

米中衝突 中国・台湾 東南アジア 北米 アジアBiz

2019/6/8 2:00

【ハノイ=大西智也、上海=張勇祥】米中貿易戦争の激化で、中国企業の東南アジア投資が急増している。ベトナムでは2019年1～5月の中国からの新規投資認可額が前年同期と比べて6倍弱に拡大した。タイでも1～3月に2倍に増えている。米国の対中制裁を回避する動きはグローバル企業で広がるが、中国企業が率先して自国から東南アジアに生産拠点をシフトしていることが浮き彫りになった。企業の「脱出」が続けば、中国の雇用や消費の新たな重荷になりかねない。

中国からベトナムへの新規投資の認可額は1月から5月20日までの間に15億6000万ドル（約1700億円）に達し、前年同期比で5.6倍に増えた。1～4月の4カ月間で既に18年通年の実績（12億ドル）を上回り、さらに伸びが続いている。

中国に次ぐ韓国は5月時点で10億ドル。17、18年と2年連続でトップだった日本は7億ドルにとどまる。このペースが続けば19年はベトナム政府が国・地域別の内訳を公表した07年以降、中国が初めて新規投資のトップになる可能性がある。

タイでも中国からの投資が増えている。タイ投資委員会（BOI）が1～3月に認可した中国からの直接投資は前年同期比2倍の292億バーツ（約1000億円）に上る。

中国企業は米国による制裁関税の影響を受けない代替拠点の確保の必要性に迫られている。アジア開発銀行によると「中国企業はここ数年、アジアの新興国への投資を増やしてきたが、貿易摩擦によってその傾向が加速した」。なかでもベトナムは中国に地理的に近く、人件費も安いため一番の「代替地」として選ばれている。

野村ホールディングスが3日発表したリポートによると、貿易戦争の激化で「ベトナムが最もプラスの影響を受ける」。ベトナムの19年の国内総生産（GDP）見通しのうち7.9%が貿易戦争の恩恵だと分析し、国・地域別では2位の台湾（2.1%）、3位のチリ（1.5%）を大きく引き離す。

フィリピンはドゥテルテ政権になり、対中関係改善という特殊要因で中国からの投資が急拡大している。18年11月には中国の習近平（シー・ジンピン）国家主席がマニラを訪問し29件の協力文書を交わした。フィリピン統計庁によると、18年の中国からの投資認可額は17年に比べ21倍超の506億ペソ（約1060億円）になり、17年1位の日本を抜き首位に立った。

中国からの生産移転が進む中、トランプ米政権は中国以外の国・地域との貿易不均衡にも懸念を示している。ベトナムの19年1～5月の対米輸出額は衣料品などを中心に前年同期比28%増となった。対米輸出が膨らめば米国が追加関税の対象国を増やす可能性もある。

上場20社超、生産移転へ　揺らぐ「世界の工場」

中国の「世界の工場」の地位が揺らぎつつある。中国上場企業のうち2018年以降、海外移転や生産拡大を実施、表明した企業は20社を超える。家電や家具といった現行の制裁関税の対象だけでなく、制裁拡大を見据える企業も増えている。

自動車部品や精密機械関連企業が集積しつつあるベトナム北部の港湾都市ハイフォン。中国企業の幹部がひっきりなしに情報収集や工場用地の視察に訪れる。中国国境までトラックで約4時間。生産拠点移設の有力地として期待されているためだ。

中国企業と接触した国際物流大手の幹部は「中国企業の貿易戦争への危機感をひしひしと感じる」と話す。タイやインドなどと比較しつつ「いつでも移転できるよう準備を進めているようだ」。

動き始めた企業の一つが広東省深圳の機器メーカー、和而泰だ。5月15日の取締役会でベトナムに生産拠点を設置することを決めた。500万ドル（約5億4000万円）を投じ現地法人を設立、家電向けの制御機器などを生産する見込み。羅珊珊取締役は「ベトナム進出は国際化が目的だが、同時に米中摩擦回避にも役立つ」と語る。

1月には米アップルのワイヤレスイヤホンの組み立てを担う電子機器大手、歌爾声学（ゴーテック）がベトナム北部バクニン省に2億6000万ドルをかけて工場を建設する認可を得た。

テレビ大手のTCL集団も「9月頃にベトナムで年300万台規模の工場が稼働する」（TCL）という。ベトナムメディアによると、パソコン世界最大手レノボ・グループは米国向けパソコン部品工場をベトナムの首都ハノイの近郊に建設することを検討している。

トランプ米政権は5月10日、家具や家電など2000億ドル相当の中国製品に対する制裁関税を10%から25%に引き上げた。米政権はほぼ全ての中国製品が対象となる「第4弾」を計画していることも表明している。

貿易戦争の長期化が避けられないとみて、生産体制の抜本的な再編に踏み切る中国企業は増えている。電気設備メーカーの通潤装備は「制裁関税が10%だった時は3～5%の値下げでしのいだが、25%の関税は打撃だ」と明かす。第4弾が発動されれば、中国企業の海外移転が一段と加速する公算が大きい。

中国企業を誘致しようという動きも進む。フィリピン大手財閥のアヤラは4月、北部ルソン島に中国企業向けの工業団地を設立する方針を明らかにした。合弁相手の中国企業と既に交渉しており、数年内の着工を目指す。

台湾や米国、日本勢では既に生産拠点を中国外に移す動きが広がる。

台湾の電子機器受託製造サービス（EMS）、仁宝電脳工業の翁宗斌・総経理は「米国向けルーターやデスクトップパソコンの一部を台湾やベトナムに移転した」と表明した。電源装置大手の光宝科技、EMS最大手の鴻海（ホンハイ）精密工業のように、台湾回帰を打ち出す企業も多い。

日本勢では複合機大手のリコーとシャープがタイへの生産移管を決めた。京セラもベトナムへの移管を検討している。

ロイター通信によると、米靴メーカーのブルックスは1月にランニングシューズの生産の大半を中国からベトナムに移すことを決定した。中国米国商会が5月に実施した調査では、中国で活動する米国企業の4割が生産拠点を中国の外に移転したか検討中だと答えた。

生産移転が続けば、中国国内の雇用や投資に影響が出る可能性も否定できない。ブルックスの場合、19年末までに約8000人の雇用が中国からベトナムに移る。

中国国務院（政府）は5月22日、雇用対策を一元的に管理する「就業工作領導小組」を設置、胡春華副首相がトップに就いたと発表した。政府は雇用情勢は良好としているが、企業業績の回復は鈍く、賃金は伸び悩んでいるとの見方が多い。領導小組の設置は習近平（シー・ジンピン）指導部の警戒感を反映している。

Translation

 [Hanoi = Tomoya Onishi, Shanghai = Zhang Yu Xiang] With the intensification of the US-China trade war, Southeast Asian investment from Chinese companies was rapidly increasing. In Vietnam, the amount of new investment from China approved from January to May 2019 had expanded nearly six times compared to the same period last year. Thailand had doubled from January to March. While the move to avoid US sanctions against China had spread among international companies, it had become clear that Chinese companies were taking the lead in shifting production bases from home to Southeast Asia. If this "escape" of the company continued, it could be a new burden on China's employment and consumption.

The amount of approved new investment from China to Vietnam reached $ 1.56 billion (approximately ¥ 170 billion) between January and May 20, a 5.6-fold increase over the same period last year. In the four months from January to April, it had already surpassed the full-year amount ($ 1.2 billion) for 2018 and continued to grow.

Korea came after China at $ 1 billion in May. Japan, which had topped two consecutive years for 2017 and 2018, remained at $ 700 million. If this pace continued, China might be at the top for new investment for the first time since 2007 when the Vietnamese government released a statistical breakdown by country and region.

Investment from China in Thailand was also increasing. Direct investment from China approved by the Thai Investment Commission (BOI) in January-March doubled to 29.2 billion baht (approximately 100 billion yen) compared to the same period last year.

Chinese companies were being pressured by the need to secure alternative sites that were not subjected to US sanctions. According to the Asian Development Bank, "Chinese companies have increased their investment in emerging Asian countries in recent years, but the trend has been accelerated due to trade frictions." Above all, Vietnam was selected as the best alternative site because it was geographically close to China and the labor cost was low.

According to a report released by Nomura Holdings on the 3rd, “Vietnam is positively affected most” by the intensifying trade war. Of Vietnam's 2019 gross domestic product (GDP) forecast, it was analyzed that 7.9% would be the benefit of the trade war, and a far distance from Taiwan that was in the second place (2.1%) and Chile in the third place (1.5%).

After the Philippines had a Duterte government, investment from China was rapidly expanding due to the special factor of improving relations with China. In November 2006 Xi Jinping the State Chairman signed 29 cooperation documents when visited Manila. According to the Philippine Statistical Office, in 2018 China's investment permit amounted to 50.6 billion pesos (approximately 106 billion yen), 21 times more than 2017, replacing Japan that was in 1st place in 2017.

While production transfer from China were progressing, the US Trump administration was also concerned about trade imbalances with countries and regions outside China. Vietnam's exports to the US in January-May 2019 increased 28 percent from the same period last year, mainly in clothing. If exports to the US expanded, the United States might increase the number of countries that would subject to additional tariffs.

More than 20 listed companies, production transfer shook "Factory of the world"

China's "Factory in the world" status was shaking. Among the listed companies in China, more than 20 companies had implemented overseas relocation and expansion of production since 2018. Not only companies such as home appliances and furniture that were currently targeted for sanction tariff, but also those companies that might be target at in an expanded sanction.

Hai Phong was a port city in northern Vietnam where auto parts and precision machinery related companies were agglomerating.  Chinese company executives kept visiting here for information gathering and factory sites inspection without stopping. It took about 4 hours by truck to the Chinese border. It was expected to be a major site for relocation of production bases.

An executive of a major international logistics company who had made contact with Chinese companies said, " Chinese companies feel a sense of crisis over the trade wars ", "It looks like that they are preparing to move at any time" as compared to Thailand, India etc.

One of the companies that had started to move was Hé Er Tài, an equipment manufacturer in Shenzhen of Guangdong Province. It decided to establish a production base in Vietnam at the board of directors meeting on May 15. It planned to invest $ 5 million (approximately 540 million yen) to establish a local subsidiary and to manufacture control devices for home appliances. Luo Shānshān the director said, "The purpose of entering Vietnam is to internationalize, but at the same time it helps to avoid US-China friction."

In January, electronics giant Gotech, which was responsible for the assembly of Apple's wireless earphones, had been approved to build a factory for $ 260 million in Bak Nin province in northern Vietnam.

A major TV maker, TCL, also said, "A factory with a capacity of 3 million units will be operating in Vietnam around September". According to the Vietnamese media, Lenovo group, the world's largest PC company, was considering building a PC parts factory for the United States near Hanoi, the capital of Vietnam.

On May 10, the US Trump administration raised sanctions on Chinese products such as furniture and home appliances worth $ 200 billion from 10 percent to 25 percent. The US administration had also stated that it planned a "fourth" wave that would cover almost all Chinese products.

A growing number of Chinese companies were taking a radical restructuring of their production systems, considering that the protracted trade war could not be avoided. According to the manufacturer of electrical equipment, " when the sanction duty was 10%, we endure a price cut of 3 to 5%, but 25% duty is a blow." If the fourth wave was initiated, overseas transfer of Chinese companies would likely accelerate further.

There was also a move to attract Chinese companies. Ayala, a major philanthropist in the Philippines, announced in April that it planned to set up an industrial park for Chinese companies in northern Luzon. Negotiation had already made with a joint venture partner Chinese company aiming at starting construction within a few years.

Groups in Taiwan, the United States, and Japan were already moving their production bases outside China.

Wēng Zōngbīn the General Manager of Rén Bǎo Computer Industry Co., Ltd., as one of the Taiwan's contractor for electronic manufacturing service (EMS), announced that "part of the router and desktop PC for the US has been moved to Taiwan and Vietnam." Guāng Bǎo Science & Technology Co., Ltd., as a major power supply company, and also Hóng Hǎi Precision Industry, as the largest EMS company, were together with many companies like them working towards returning to Taiwan.

Among Japanese companies, multi-function printer major makers Ricoh and also Sharp decided to transfer production to Thailand. Kyocera was also considering transferring control to Vietnam.

According to Reuters, US shoemaker Brooks decided to move most of its running shoe production from China to Vietnam in January. According to a survey conducted in May by the Chinese American Chamber of Commerce, 40% of US companies operating in China said that they were considering whether to relocate their production bases outside China.

If production transfer continued, there was no denying that employment and investment in China might be affected. In the case of Brooks, about 8,000 jobs would be transferred from China to Vietnam by the end of 2019.

On May 22, the State Council of China (Government) announced that it had established a "Work Employment Leading Group" to centrally manage employment measures, and Deputy Prime Minister Hu Chunhua had taken up the lead. Although the government regarded the employment situation as favorable, recovery in corporate performance was sluggish and there were many views that wages were stagnating. The setting up of the Leading Group reflected the wariness of Xi Jinping’s leadership.

              So, with the moving out of so many factories, pressure is mounting on the employment situation inside China. How China would respond to the situation is an interesting question.

Japan Is Having Its Own Heated Debate Over Modern Monetary Theory

Recently Yahoo Finance reported the following:

Yahoo Finance

Japan Is Having Its Own Heated Debate Over Modern Monetary Theory

Bloomberg Toru Fujioka and Enda Curran, Bloomberg Wed, Jun 5 6:00 AM PDT

 (Bloomberg) -- The hottest economic doctrine around says governments should stop worrying and learn to love their public debt. Japan’s been more relaxed than most –- but a looming tax hike suggests it may be about to blink.

Modern Monetary Theory posits that countries which control their own currency can seek stronger economic growth via government spending, without risking default. The only limit on spending is inflation -- a remote prospect in Tokyo, where steering clear of deflation is the priority and a 2% price target remains far out of reach.

It’s a controversial idea that has detractors and admirers worldwide, and may even surface in next year’s U.S. election campaign. Japan is often cited as evidence the theory is accurate. Now it’s having its own version of the MMT debate.

How Modern Monetary Theory Lets Politicians Think Big: QuickTake

The world’s third-biggest economy has been running budget deficits for two decades and selling a chunk of the resulting debt indirectly to its own central bank with interest rates at around zero. The lines that usually divide fiscal and monetary policy have blurred -– and MMTers say that’s fine.

But Japan’s rulers have been looking to trim their budget deficit for several years as they seek to address the world’s biggest government debt load at more than twice the size of the economy. The higher sales tax promised for October is central to their plan.

‘Not a Debate’

For Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s government, and the Bank of Japan under Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, the argument that extra taxation might not be needed is viewed as heresy.

The tax hike is necessary to secure Japan’s welfare system and another postponement risks a credit ratings downgrade, Finance Minister Taro Aso said Monday, dismissing the views of an MMT advocate in parliament. “This isn’t a public debate, it’s a theory, though I’m not sure I should even call it a theory, it’s a line of argument,’’ Aso said.

The question came from a member of his own party, where some lawmakers think the government should be taking the opposite tack and spending more to shore up economic growth.

The issue of austerity versus fiscal support resonates well beyond Japan, where central bankers and finance ministers will gather for a Group of 20 meeting this week.

Solar System

Many of them are under heightened scrutiny at home. Low interest rates in advanced economies haven’t done enough to kick-start economic growth, lift wages or alleviate inequality. And that’s raising questions about whether the standard policy tools have outlived their use -- and fueled populist insurgencies that demand fundamental change.

Advocates of MMT say it’s time for a complete rethink of the economic solar system –- what money is, what taxes are for, and what government spending can achieve. They say there’s no need to fixate on deficit and debt metrics when there’s no sign of discomfort in bond markets, like in Japan. Yields on 10-year sovereigns have stayed below 1% percent since 2013 when the BOJ ramped up its buying spree.

Proponents say MMT isn’t like a switch you can turn on and off -- it’s a descriptive framework that applies to governments in full control of their currency, whether or not they choose to use all their options. Such countries don’t need tax revenue to balance the books, MMTers say, though they may use taxes to restrain demand when it overheats.

“There’s nothing wrong with the idea of MMT,’’ said Satoshi Fujii, who served as an economic adviser to Abe for six years. He’s called for a postponement of the tax increase and additional public spending of 15 trillion yen ($140 billion) a year over three years to jump-start inflation.

Still, a more conventional explanation for why Japan has avoided flight from bond markets is that around 90% of the national debt is domestically held -- something that separates it from peers like the U.S., which relies on China and other foreign creditors.

Mainstream economists, even when they’re generally supportive of more government spending to promote growth, warn that MMT risks letting public finances get out of control. Olivier Blanchard of MIT argues that it is only possible to finance large deficits by money creation without sparking inflation when interest rates are at zero.

For now, the BOJ is running low on ammunition, proving the case that a central bank can’t simply conjure up price-growth out of nowhere without the help of government spending.

Like Aso, Kuroda is dismissive of MMT. In April he described it as extreme, inappropriate, and entirely unrelated to what Japan has been doing.

Bill Mitchell, an MMT pioneer and co-author of a new macroeconomics textbook based on the theory, isn’t impressed.

"Aso can deny it for all he is worth," said Mitchell, a professor at the University of Newcastle in Australia. In fact, Japan has been a "laboratory to establish the principles of MMT and the consequences of different fiscal and monetary policy initiatives," he said.

A 600-Page Textbook About Modern Monetary Theory Has Sold Out

Hiroshi Ando, a lawmaker from Abe’s party, is less squeamish about MMT than his leader. He’s organized study sessions for colleagues who support bigger budget deficits to learn more about the doctrine. About 10 of them attended a discussion on May 15.

“If you understand this theory,’’ said Ando, “you will come to the conclusion that it’s utterly untrue to say Japan’s finances are in a critical state.’’

Translation

日本對現代貨幣理論的爭論激烈

（彭博社） - 最熱門的經濟學說認為政府應該停止擔憂公共債務並學會熱愛它。日本比大多數人對它更放鬆 - 但快将出現的加稅顯示出這可能有变。

現代貨幣理論認為，控制本國貨幣的國家, 可以通過政府支出去尋求更強勁的經濟增長而不會有違約風險。對支出的唯一限制是通貨膨脹 - 這是東京的一個遙遠的前景希望，但目前首要任務還是避開通貨緊縮，2％的物價目標仍然遠遠不会成真。

現代貨幣理論是一個有爭議的想法，在世界範圍內有詆毀者和崇拜者，甚至可能在明年的美國競選活動中出現。日本經常被引用作為理論準確的證據。現在它正在擁有自己的現代貨幣理論的辯論版本。

現代貨幣理論如何讓政治家從宏觀構思：簡單說明

這個世界第三大經濟體已經持續了20年的預算赤字，並將一大筆由此產生的債務間接賣給了自己的中央銀行，利率大約為零。通常劃分財政和貨幣政策的界限已經模糊 - 而現代貨幣理論支持者表示這很好。

但日本的統治者多年來一直在尋求削減預算赤字，因為他們尋求解決世界上最大的政府債務負擔，其規模是經濟規模的兩倍多。 10月承諾了的提高銷售稅是他們計劃的核心。

'不是辯論'

對於日本首相安倍晉三的政府，以及日本央行行長黑田東彥，視可能不需要額外徵稅的論點為異端邪說。

財政部長麻生太郎週一表示，加息是確保日本福利制度和另一次推遲信貸評級下調的必要條件，並駁回了議會現代貨幣理論倡導者的觀點。麻生說 “這不是一場公開的辯論，這是一種理論，雖然我仍然不確定我是否應該稱之為理論，這是一種論說” 。

這個問題來自他自己黨派的成員，一些立法者認為政府應該採取相反的措施並花更多錢來支撐經濟增長。

緊縮與財政支持的問題引起了日本的強烈反響，並会帶到日本央行行長和財政部長將參加的本週的20國集團會議。

太陽系

他們之中許多人在國內受到更嚴格的審视。發達經濟體的低利率還沒有足以啟動經濟增長，提高工資, 或緩解不平等。這引發了人們對標準政策工具是否已經過時使用的疑問 - 並引發了民粹主義要求根本的改變。

現代貨幣理論的支持者表示現在是時候對經濟上的太陽能系進行徹底的重新思考 - 金錢是什麼，稅收是什麼，以及政府支出可以實現什麼。他們表示，在日本等債券市場沒有任何不適的跡象時，沒有必要關注赤字和債務指標。自2013年日本央行加大購買熱潮以來，10国債收益率一直低於1％。

支持者稱現代貨幣理論，不是一個可以打開和關閉的開關 - 它是一個描述性框架，適用於完全控制其貨幣的政府，無論他們是否選擇使用所有選項。 支持者表示，這些國家不需要稅收來平衡賬目，儘管他們可能會在消费過熱時使用稅收來抑制需求。

 “現代貨幣理論的想法沒有任何問題，”藤井聰（Satoshi Fujii）說，他曾擔任安倍晉三的經濟顧問六年。他呼籲推遲三年增加稅收和每年支出15萬億日元（1400億美元）的額外公共開支來推動通脹。

儘管如此，一個更為傳統的方法去解釋日本避免從債券市場撤離的是, 大約有90％的國債是在國內持有的 - 這與美國依賴中國和其他外國債權人的國家有分別。

即使主流經濟學家普遍支持政府用更多的支出來促進經濟增長，也同時警告現代貨幣理論可能會讓公共財政失控。麻省理工學院的奧利維爾布蘭查德認為，只有在利率為零之時，才能通過貨幣創造來彌補巨額赤字而不會引發通貨膨脹。

目前，日本央行可以使用的彈藥很少, 證明了如果沒有政府支出的幫助，央行不可能簡單地令物價增長。

像麻生太郎一樣，黑田東彥對現代貨幣理論不屑一顧。在四月份他將其描述為極端，不恰當，和與日本的做法完全無關。

比爾米切爾是現代貨幣理論的先驅，也是基於該理論而寫成的新宏觀經濟學教科書的合著者，他對麻生的說法不以為然。

澳大利亞紐卡斯爾大學教授米切爾說：“麻生太郎可以否認這一切。” 他又說事實上日本一直是“建立現代貨幣理論原則，以及不同財政和貨幣政策舉措的後果的實驗室”。

一本600頁的現代貨幣理論教科書已經售罄

來自安倍黨的立法者安藤弘對現代貨幣理論的態度不如他的領導者那麼負面。他為那些支持更大預算赤字的同事組織了學習課程，以便更多地了解這一學說。其中約有10人參加了5月15日的討論。

“如果你理解這個理論，你會得出結論 ”安藤說，“說日本的財政處於危急狀態是完全不真實的。”

Comments

       It is interesting to note that Japan has a deficit budget for two decades and sold most of the debt indirectly to its own central bank with interest rates at around zero. It seems that a risk of debt default is minimal as it is government guaranteed. But debts have to be repaid sooner or later, I think to increase taxation is a reasonable decision.