US will soon threaten to topple Saudi Arabia as the world's top oil exporter: IEA

Two days ago the Yahoo News On-line reported the following:

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US will soon threaten to topple Saudi Arabia as the world's top oil exporter: IEA

CNBC  Tom DiChristopher, CNBC 8 hours ago

The United States became the world's biggest oil producer in 2018, and over the next five years, the nation will take aim at becoming the top oil exporter, according to the International Energy Agency.

IEA forecasts U.S. exports of crude oil and petroleum products will nearly double, hitting about 9 million barrels per day by 2024. At that level, the U.S. will surpass Russia's shipments and threaten to unseat Saudi Arabia, the current top exporter.

The forecast from IEA comes just weeks after the U.S. exported a record 3.6 million barrels per day of crude oil. The country is also a major exporter of petroleum products, including refined fuels like gasoline.

Those shipments will surge in the coming years as crude production from the nation's shale fields continues to boom, IEA says in its annual five-year oil outlook. The Paris-based adviser to oil consumers and producers sees U.S. crude output — already at a record 12 million bpd — growing by another 4 million bpd through 2024.

"The second wave of the U.S. shale revolution is coming," IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said in a statement. "It will see the United States account for 70 percent of the rise in global oil production and some 75 percent of the expansion in LNG trade over the next five years. This will shake up international oil and gas trade flows, with profound implications for the geopolitics of energy."

Pulling ahead of Russia and Saudi Arabia in exports would further erode their influence in the oil market.

Saudi Arabia and Russia have formed an alliance in recent years, coordinating oil production among OPEC and other oil-producing countries. The so-called OPEC+ alliance has capped output for much of the last two years, helping to boost oil prices after a punishing downturn.

Most of the output growth from OPEC over the next five years will come from Iraq, IEA says. The group thinks the country will be the world's third-biggest source of new supply, helping to offset production declines in Iran and Venezuela, both of which are grappling with U.S. sanctions on their state-controlled energy industries.

On Monday, Birol said the IEA's long-standing effort to assess the oil market without much regard for geopolitics is becoming increasingly difficult.

"We are seeing that geopolitical concerns are casting an increasing shadow on the oil markets today and tomorrow," he said during a press conference at CERAWeek by IHS Markit, a major energy conference in Houston.

The world will need new supply, in IEA's view. The group sees no signs that growing oil demand will peak in the coming years. It forecasts the world's appetite for oil will increase at an average 1.2 million bpd over the next five years, roughly in line with recent growth trends.

While the group sees electric cars and fuel efficiency sapping demand for gasoline, IEA thinks rising petrochemicals and jet fuel consumption will offset any weakness at the pump.

In addition to the U.S. and Iraq, IEA sees countries like Brazil, Norway and Guyana meeting rising demand for oil.

In a major shift, the U.S. became the biggest source of oil demand growth in the world, overtaking China, long the engine of global commodity consumption. The robust U.S. consumption was driven by strong economic growth and high demand in the petrochemicals industry, which processes fossil fuels and by-products into chemicals like plastics.

"US oil consumption [growth] last year was about a half-million barrels per day, and as such it was the highest in all the countries around," Birol said on Monday. "It was the first time that the United States in the last two decades was the No. 1 driver of oil consumption growth."

The U.S. achieved the feat against a backdrop of slowing global economic growth, particularly in China.

My Translation

雅虎財經

美國很快將構成威脅取代沙特阿拉伯作為世界最大石油出口國：国际能源署

CNBC Tom DiChristopher，CNBC 8小時前

據國際能源署（International Energy Agency）稱，美國在2018年成為世界上最大的石油生產國，未來五年，美國將成為最大的石油出口國。

國際能源機構預測，美國對原油和石油產品的出口將增加近一倍，到2024年將達到每天約900萬桶。在這一水平上，美國將超過俄羅斯的出口量，並威脅要取代目前最大出口國沙特阿拉伯。

國際能源機構的預測是基于美國創出每天出口360萬桶原油的紀錄後的幾週。該國也是石油產品的主要出口國，包括汽油等精煉燃料。

國際能源署在其五年石油年度展望中表示，由於該國頁岩油田的原油產量持續增長，未來幾年這出貨量將激增。這家總部位於巴黎的石油消費者和生產商顧問認為，到2024年，美國的原油產量 - 由现在已達到創紀錄的1200萬桶/日 - 将会再额外增加400萬桶/天。

国际能源署執行主任法蒂赫比羅爾在一份聲明中說“美國頁岩革命的第二次浪潮即將來臨。” “未來五年，全球石油產量增長美國將佔70％，以及液化天然氣貿易增長的75％。這將改變國際石油和天然氣貿易流動。對能源地緣政治產生深遠影響。”

在出口方面將領先俄羅斯和沙特阿拉伯, 并進一步削弱他們在石油市場的影響力。

沙特阿拉伯和俄羅斯近年來已經結成聯盟，協調石油輸出國組織和其他石油生產國之間的石油生產。所謂石油輸出國組織+其他聯盟, 在過去兩年的大部分時間裡都限制了產量，幫助提高在經歷了嚴重的經濟衰退後的油價。

国际能源署表示未來五年的產量增長大部分將來自伊拉克。該集團認為，該國將成為世界第三大新供應來源，有助於抵消伊朗和委內瑞拉的產量下降，后者两国都在努力應對美國對其國家控制的能源產業的制裁。

比羅爾在週一表示，国际能源署長期以來一直在努力評估石油市場而不太關注地緣政治，這種做法變得越來越困難。

他在休斯頓由IHS Markit舉行的一次重要能源會議CERAWeek新聞發布會上說 “我們看到地緣政治問題正在給今天和明天的石油市場帶來越來越大的影響” 。

在国际能源署看來，世界將需要新的供應。該集團沒有看到未來幾年石油需求增長將達到頂峰值的跡象。它預測未來五年全球石油需求將平均每天增加120萬桶，大致與近期增長趨勢一致。

雖然該集團認為電動汽車和燃油效率將削弱對汽油的需求，但国际能源署認為石化產品和噴射機燃料消耗的增加將抵產消油需要的疲弱。

除美國和伊拉克外，国际能源署還看到巴西，挪威和圭亞那等國家對石油的需求增加作出應對。

在重大轉變下，美國成為全球石油需求增長的最大來源，超過長期以來一直是全球商品消費引擎的中國。強勁的美國消費是由強勁的經濟增長和石化行業的高需求所推動，石化行業將化石燃料和副產品加工成塑料等化學品。

比羅爾週一表示“美國去年的石油消費量[增長]約為每天50萬桶，因此它是所有國家中最高的”。 “這是過去二十年來美國首次成為石油消費增長的第一大推動力。”

美國在全球經濟增長放緩，特別是在中國的背景下，取得了這一成就。

My Comments

The fact that the United States will account for 70 percent of the rise in global oil production and some 75 percent of the expansion in LNG trade over the next five years would surely change the global geopolitics of energy. I think the US’s ability to become the world’s leading oil exporter will give it another trump card in exerting global influence.