俄國固定盧布兌換率提早改變, 匯價急跌

Yesterday the Asahi News on-line reported the following:

ロシア、変動相場制へ移行　ルーブル急落で前倒し

ウラジオストク＝中川仁樹

2014年11月12日01時19分

　ロシア中央銀行は１０日、通貨ルーブルの値幅制限を廃止し、変動相場制に移行したと発表した。来年初めに導入する計画だったが、ルーブル急落を受けて２カ月の前倒しを迫られた。当局側は「投機対策」を強調するが、ルーブル安に歯止めがかからなくなった面も強く、ロシア経済がさらに不安定化する恐れもある。

　ルーブルは先週のモスクワ外国為替市場で一時、１ドル＝４８ルーブル台の安値をつけた。３３ルーブル台だった年初から約３割の下落となる。

　ウクライナ危機を巡り、欧米が対ロシア制裁を９月に強めて以降、ルーブルは急落している。原油価格下落も相まって、ルーブル売りが止まらない状況だ。

　ロシア中銀はこれまで、ルーブルの為替相場を、ドルとユーロの「通貨バスケット」に対し、一定の範囲内で変動させる「管理型変動相場制」をとってきた。値幅を超えて下がらないよう、当局が為替介入でルーブルを買い支える仕組みだ。だが、大量のルーブル売りに耐えきれず、５日には１日の為替介入の上限を３億５千万ドル（約４００億円）とする措置を発表。１０日に変動相場制への移行に追い込まれた形だ。

　タス通信によると、ロシア中銀のドゥビニン元総裁は「（変動相場制への移行で）投機家のリスクが高まった」と話したという。

　当局が値幅制限を設けている場合は、当局が制限いっぱいの値段で介入するのが明らかなため、投機筋にとっては売り浴びせやすい。一方で、変動相場制になると、市場参加者には、当局がどの値段で介入するのか分からなくなる。投機筋は、相場が反転するリスクを見極めながら、より慎重にルーブルを売らざるを得なくなるだろう――というのが当局の狙いだ。

　実際、１０日のルーブル相場は一時、４４ルーブル台まで上がった。プーチン大統領が訪問中の北京で、「必要ならロシア中銀は介入する権利を保持している」と発言したことも後押しした。

　ただ、ロシア経済は急速に悪化している。先行き不安が広がって個人消費が落ち込み、今年の経済成長率は０％程度に下がるとみられている。

　その一方で、通貨安などの影響で、今年のインフレ率は８％を超える可能性がある。ロシア中銀はインフレや資本流出を抑えるため、今年に入って４回の利上げを実施。政策金利は昨年の５・５％から９・５％に上がった。中銀は、本来は景気刺激のために利下げを行いたいところだが、インフレ退治のために利上げを実施せざるを得ないというジレンマに陥っている。（ウラジオストク＝中川仁樹）

(試譯文)

On the 10th the Central Bank of Russian Federation abolished the price range limits for its currency ruble and announced that it shifted to a floating exchange rate system. Although the schedule was to introduce that at the beginning of next year, there was pressure to advance the schedule for two months in response to the ruble sudden drop. Although the authorities had emphasized "measures against speculation" to brake stop ruble’s depreciation, there was a strong inability for them to carry out such; also there was a worry that the Russia economy might become further unstable.

In Moscow’s foreign exchange market last week the ruble touched the low price level of 1 dollar = 48 rubles temporarily. It fell about 30 percent from the beginning of the year which was at the level of 33 rubles.

After the West strengthened the sanction on Russia in September over the Ukraine crisis the ruble was plunging. Coupled with a fall in oil price, the situation was that ruble sales had not stopped.

So far the central bank of Russia took the "managed type floating exchange rate system" which floated the exchange rate of ruble within limits hooked to the US dollar and Euro "currency basket". It was a mechanism which the authorities could prop up ruble by exchange intervention so that it might not fall more than a price range. But it could not bear a lot of ruble sales, and announced on the 5th a measure which set the maximum of exchange intervention in one day at 350 million dollars (about 40 billion yen). On the 10th it shifted into the form of floating exchange rate system.

According to Tass, Dubinin the former President of the central bank in Russia said that "(by shifting to a floating exchange rate system) the speculator's risk has increased".

Since it was clear that the authority’s intervention was full of limitations, for the speculators, it was easy to sell in a large amount to suppress the price. On the other hand if it became a floating exchange rate system, to a market participant, it could not be understood anymore at what price the authorities would intervene. As speculators discerned a risk that the market price might be reversed, they would be forced to sell ruble more carefully, which was the aim of the authorities.

The ruble rate on the 10th actually went up to the level of 44 rubles temporarily. President Putin in Beijing where he was visiting said and backed up that "if required, the central bank in Russia holds the right to intervene".

However, the Russia economy was getting worse quickly. Uncertainty over the future spread, personal consumption fell; it was expected that the economic growth rate this year would fall to about 0%.

On the other hand under the influence of currency devaluation etc. the inflation rate this year might exceed 8%. The central bank in Russia in order to stop inflation and capital outflow, since this year had carried out interest rate increase four times. For monetary policy, the interest rate went up from 5.5% last year to 9.5%. Originally the central bank intended to cut the interest rate as an economic stimulus, but had fallen into a dilemma that the interest rate had to be raised so as to check inflation.

It is interesting to know that the interest rate in Russia is over 9%.