“To fulfill an order within 30 seconds after receiving it” - unfair dismissal due to the impossible mission - a former employee sued McDonald

Recently Mainichi Shimbun On-line reported the following:

「注文から提供まで30秒以内」達成困難な目標で不当解雇 元社員がマクドナルド提訴

 毎日新聞 2019/12/12 18:46

　日本マクドナルド（東京都）元社員の男性＝名古屋市＝が、成績不振の従業員への業績改善計画で達成困難な目標を課され退職を強要されたなどとして、同社に解雇無効や慰謝料200万円、約2年間の未払い賃金などを求める訴訟を名古屋地裁に起こした。提訴は10月31日付。

　訴状などによると、男性は2016年11月に市内店舗で勤務中、過労による急性心筋梗塞（こうそく）で倒れた。心臓を手術し、医師の意見書に「6カ月は過労を避けて」と記されたが、同社に記載の無い意見書を再提出させられた。復帰後は人手不足で心臓病の薬を満足に服用できず、連日の深夜勤務などもあり17年8月に再入院。再手術したが、翌月には復職を求められた。

　昨年9月には同計画を強要され、注文から提供まで30秒以内など非現実的な目標を課された。その間、勤務中に片耳が聞こえなくなるなどしたという。今年1月、目標未達成を理由に退職同意書への署名を求められた。2月に「大うつ病」と診断されたが、執拗（しつよう）に退職を迫られ、4月末で退職とされたという。

　同計画は主に外資系企業では「PIP（パフォーマンス・インプルーブメント・プラン）」などと呼ばれ、従業員に課題を与えて能力を向上させる制度。達成困難な目標を課して退職勧奨や解雇の理由とするケースもある。12年には東京地裁が、米通信社東京支局の男性記者について、PIPを経た解雇を無効と判断した。

　男性は「自主退職を装うためにPIPを課した。解雇は権利乱用で無効」と主張。「不当に早期復職を強いられ再手術を余儀なくされるなど、多大な精神的苦痛を被った」と訴えている。

　日本マクドナルド広報部は取材に「訴訟に影響するため詳細なコメントは控えるが、引き続き法廷の場で真摯（しんし）に対応する」とコメントした。【川瀬慎一朗】

Translation

A former employee of McDonald's (Tokyo) in Nagoya City who had been forced to resign after being given a hard-to-achieve goal assigned under a performance improvement plan that was designed for poor-performing employees filed to the Nagoya District Court a lawsuit to seek 2 million yen from the company for the dismissal and alimony,  on top of the unpaid wages etc. of about two years. The complaint was dated October 31.

According to the complaints, the man fell down during work in a city store in November 2016 due to acute myocardial infarction as a result of overworking. His heart was operated upon and a doctor's opinion stated that “overwork be avoided for six months”. Yet this opinion was not recorded in the company although it had been submitted. After returning to work, the man was unable to take heart medicines satisfactorily due to tight manpower situation. He was hospitalized again in August 2017 due to continuously working late at night. He was re-operated upon, and was asked to return to work in the following month.

 "In September of last year, the same plan was again enforced upon him, impossible goals such as fulfilling orders within 30 seconds from receiving were imposed on him. Meanwhile, one of his ear was unable to hear during working. In January this year, he was asked to sign a resignation agreement because he could not achieve the goals. He was diagnosed with “major depression” in February,  urged to resign relentlessly and dismissed at the end of April.

A plan like this was commonly called “PIP (Performance Improvement Plan)” by foreign-affiliated companies, it was a system that gave employees tasks to improve their abilities. In some cases, a difficult goal was set for reasons of encouraging resignation or dismissal. In 2012 the Tokyo District Court had ruled that a dismissal, made through a PIP, was invalid towards a male reporter belonging the Tokyo branch of a US news agency.

The man insisted that “a PIP is being imposed to pretend a voluntary resignation; the dismissal is invalid due to abuse of rights ". He said that “a great deal of mental pain was suffered, including being unfairly forced to return to work and re-operated upon."

In response to press inquiries McDonald's Public Relations Department in Japan commented that “we ​​will refrain from making detailed comments because it will affect the lawsuit, but we will continue to respond sincerely in the courtroom.”

          So, McDonald is facing a legal battle initiated by his former employee.

Toyota announces plans to “sell 10.77 million units worldwide in 2020”

Recently the Mainichi Newspaper reported the following:

トヨタ「20年世界販売は1077万台」 計画発表

 毎日新聞 2019/12/17 19:55

　トヨタ自動車は17日、グループのダイハツ工業と日野自動車を含む2020年の世界販売を1077万台とする計画を発表した。19年見込みの1072万台を上回り、4年連続の過去最高更新と7年連続の1000万台超えを目指す。新型車の投入効果が続く中国や新型ヤリスなどを投入する欧州が好調に推移すると見込む。

　世界販売の内訳は海外が19年見込み比2％増の850万台、国内が4％減の226万台。ハイブリッド車（HV）など電動車の世界販売は20％増の231万台を見込んでいる。

　グループの世界生産も1％増の1090万台と4年連続で過去最高を計画する。海外生産が4％増の649万台、国内生産が4％減の441万台。

　一方、トヨタ単体の国内販売は4％減の156万台を計画。新型車の投入効果が落ち着くほか、消費増税の反動減の影響が限定的ながらも続くとみている。単体の国内生産は5％減の324万台となるものの、国内の雇用や研究開発の基盤を守るため必要とする300万台体制を維持する。【田口雅士】

Translation

 Mainichi Newspaper 2019/12/17 19:55

On December 17 Toyota Motor Corporation announced that it planned to sell 10.77 million units worldwide in 2020, together with its group companies Daihatsu Motor and Hino Motors. The company aimed to surpass the 10.72 million units expected in 2019 so as to achieve record highs for the fourth consecutive year and exceeding 10 million units for the seventh consecutive year. It was expected that in China the effects of the introduction of new models would continue, and in Europe with the introduction new Yaris the company would perform well.

The breakdown of global sales was that in overseas it would be 8.5 million units that was a 2% increase from 2019, and in Japan 2.26 million units that would be a 4% decrease. Global sales of electric vehicles such as hybrid vehicles (HV) were expected to increase by 20% to reach 2.31 million units.

  

The Group's global production was also expected to increase by 1% to 10.9 million units, a record high for the fourth consecutive year. Overseas production increased by 4% to 6.49 million units, while domestic production decreased by 4% to 4.41 million units.

On the other hand, domestic sale of Toyota alone was expected to decrease by 4% to 1.56 million units. The company forecast that the effects of the introduction of new models would stabilize and that the effects of the consumption tax hike would continue, albeit to a limited extent. Although domestic production of Toyota would decrease by 5% to 3.24 million units, it was still maintaining a basic level of 3 million units that was needed to protect both domestic employment and its R & D base. [Masashi Taguchi]

         So, in the coming year Toyota as a group will continue its leadership in car making globally.

China's industrial subsidy doubled in 5 years - 2.4 trillion yen for listed companies in 2018

Recently Nihon Keizai Shimbun Electronic version reported the following:

中国の産業補助金5年で倍増　18年、上場企業に2.4兆円

中国・台湾 アジアBiz

2019/12/16 23:00日本経済新聞　電子版

【広州=川上尚志】中国の産業補助金が増え続けている。中国本土の上場企業では、2018年の政府補助金が約2兆4千億円と5年でほぼ倍増した。19年も約15%の伸びで推移する。国内産業の育成や雇用の維持を目的に、自動車や電機大手への支給が目立つ。米中両国は貿易交渉で「第1段階の合意」に達したが、補助金の撤廃など中国の構造問題をめぐる今後の協議は難航しそうだ。

中国の金融情報会社Windが持つ上海と深圳証券取引所の上場企業の決算短信データをもとに、日本経済新聞社が政府補助金を集計した。18年は1562億元（約2兆4千億円）と、13年の約2倍になった。18年に3兆元を超えた上場企業の純利益総額の5%程度に相当する。

1～9月期は中国石油化工（シノペック）が首位で、受給額は約500億円だった。2位は約300億円を受け取った国有自動車大手の広州汽車集団。3位も上海汽車集団と、上位10社のうち4社を自動車メーカーが占めた。中国政府が電気自動車（EV）の普及を狙った補助金のほか、経営不振の企業を対象にした救済色の強い資金供与もみられた。

4位は液晶パネル大手の京東方科技集団（BOE）。同業のTCL集団（6位）やエアコン大手の珠海格力電器（7位）など電機業界も上位に並んだ。中国政府は15年にハイテク産業育成策「中国製造2025」を打ち出した。ハイテク分野の国際競争力を高めるために補助金を増やしている実態が浮かぶ。

中国は産業補助金を低利の融資などとともに産業育成に活用してきた。世界貿易機関（WTO）は輸出促進を目的とした企業への補助金を原則禁止し、それ以外の補助金にも報告を求めている。中国は補助金の報告をほとんどしておらず、WTOルールに抵触するケースが多いとされる。

米国は公平な競争をゆがめていると補助金の撤廃を迫るが、中国が応じる兆しはない。日本総合研究所の関辰一主任研究員は「富の分配は共産党指導部の権力の源泉でもあり、抜本的な見直しは難しい」と指摘する。

中国政府のかたくなな姿勢は、米国の制裁対象となった企業への補助金からもうかがえる。18年に米政府から事実上の輸出禁止措置を受けたZTEは、19年1～6月に雇用維持への協力という名目で20億円強を支給された。

中国では地方政府などが雇用維持を狙い、経営不振企業を支えるために補助金を活用しているケースもある。国有の中堅自動車メーカー、安徽江淮汽車集団（JAC）は8～11月、エコカー研究開発促進などの名目で約60億円の補助金を受け取った。1～9月期の純利益の約3倍の額だ。

こうした補助金は競争力の乏しい企業を延命させかねない。結果として過剰生産が解消せず、鉄鋼など重厚長大型の産業を中心に中国企業の非効率な経営を助長させる要因にもなっている。

米中両国の貿易交渉は13日に第1段階の合意に達したが、今後は中国の産業補助金を含めた構造改革が議論の主題となる見込み。中国政府が自国経済の根幹を支える補助金で譲歩に動くとは考えにくく、貿易交渉が再び暗礁に乗り上げるリスクもある。

Translation

[Guangzhou = Takashi Kawakami] China's industrial subsidies continued to increase. Among the listed companies in mainland China, government subsidies in 2018 nearly doubled to about 2.4 trillion yen in five years. It would continue to grow by about 15% in 2019. For the purpose of fostering domestic industry and maintaining employment, payments to automobile and electronics majors were prominent. Although the US and China had reached a "first-stage agreement" in trade negotiations, future talks on China's structural issues, including the elimination of subsidies, could likely to be difficult.

Nihon Keizai Shimbun compiled government subsidies based on the financial statements held by Wind, a Chinese financial information company, together with summary accounts of Shenzhen Stock Exchange listed companies. In 2018, it was 156.2 billion yuan (about 2.4 trillion yen), almost doubled that of 2013. This represented about 5% of the net profit of listed companies in 2018 that had exceeded RMB 3 trillion.

In the January-September quarter, China Petrochemical Co., Ltd. (Sinopec) was at the top place, receiving about 50 billion yen. Second place was Guangzhou Automobile Group, a state-owned automobile giant that received about 30 billion yen. The third place was SAIC Motor Group, and at the top ten four were automakers. In addition to the Chinese government's subsidies aimed at promoting the use of electric vehicles (EVs), there were also strong rescue funds for poorly-running companies.

The fourth place was the LCD panel giant Keito Oriental Technology Group (BOE). In the same industry the TCL group (6th), together with a major air conditioner Zhuhai Power Electronics (7th) and others in the electronics industry were ranking high. In 2015, the Chinese government launched the “China Manufacturing 2025” policy to foster the high-tech industry. The fact was that subsidies were being increased to enhance international competitiveness in the high-tech field.

China had used industrial subsidies, along with low-interest loans, for industrial development. The World Trade Organization (WTO) had banned subsidies to companies that promote exports, and had requested the reporting of other subsidies. China had rarely reported subsidies and was said to have often violated WTO rules.

The United States was pushing for the abolition of subsidies if it distorted fair competition, but there was no sign that China would respond. Seki Tatsuichi, a senior researcher at the Japan Research Institute had pointed out that "Wealth distribution is also the source of power of the Communist Party leadership, and it is difficult to make a radical revision".

The Chinese government's stiffness was evident from its subsidies toward US sanctioned companies. ZTE, which was virtually denied an export and banned by the US government in 2018, was awarded over 2 billion-yen from January to June in 2019 in the name of cooperation to maintain employment.

In China, local governments and others aimed to maintain employment, and also used subsidies to support under-performing companies in some cases. Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group (JAC), a state-owned medium-sized car manufacturer, received a subsidy of approximately 6 billion yen from August to November in the name of promoting Eco-car R & D. It was about three times the net profit for its first nine months.

These subsidies could extend the life of less competitive companies. As a result, overproduction could not been resolved and this had also contributed to the inefficient management of Chinese companies, especially in heavy and large industries such as steel.

The first round of trade negotiation between the United States and China reached an agreement on the 13th, but it was expected that structural reforms, including China's industrial subsidies, could be the subject of discussion in the future. It was unlikely that the Chinese government might make concessions over the subsidies that underpinned its economy, and there was a risk that trade negotiations could run into a reef again.

          So, it is very likely that US-China trade conflict would erupt again in the future. So long as China continues to use socialism, although with a Chinese characteristic, to run the country’s economy, it could have difficulties in doing business with the capitalistic world that has the US taking the lead.

A 90% decrease from the previous year: Tsushima concept- government support for a drastic decrease in Korean tourists

 Recently Asahi Shimbun Digital reported the following:

朝日新聞デジタル

前年の９割減も 対馬念頭、韓国人観光客激減を政府支援

 朝日新聞社 2019/12/13 00:50

　日韓関係悪化で韓国からの観光客が激減した長崎県対馬市を念頭に、政府が支援に乗り出す。「特定市場からの観光客の割合が高い観光地」を対象に、幅広い国や地域からの誘客を図るという異例のテコ入れ策だ。観光庁と内閣府が旅行商品の販路開拓や観光資源づくりなどを助成する方針で、１３日に閣議決定する補正予算案に盛り込む。

　対馬市は、韓国・釜山の南東５０キロに位置する人口約３万人の離島。２０１８年の訪日客約４１万人は、ほぼすべて韓国から。観光は地域経済の大きな柱だ。

　だが、韓国大法院（最高裁）が昨年１０月、元徴用工らへの賠償を日本企業に命じた判決をきっかけに日韓関係は悪化。日本が韓国向け輸出品の規制を強化した今夏以降では、対馬への韓国人客は大幅に落ち込み、１１月は対前年同月比９割減。１～１１月でみても２５万人にとどまり、市は国に支援を求めていた。

　こうした事態を打開するため、観光庁が訪日客を、内閣府が日本人客を増やす取り組みを支援し、補正予算にそれぞれ２・５億～３億円を盛り込む。予算計上に際して、観光庁は対馬以外も対象になる可能性があるとしている。内閣府は事業目的を住民がいる国境離島の地域社会の維持と位置づけている。

　具体的には、外国人の有識者を地域に招き、多言語の案内文や交通アクセスといった受け入れ環境のほか、地域が持つ観光資源などを調査。どの国・地域や客層を狙って旅行商品を今後売り込むかなどの戦略づくりを支援する。新たな観光資源づくりや、ＳＮＳでの発信力を持つ「インフルエンサー」や旅行会社を招き、地域を宣伝してもらう取り組みなども支える。（及川綾子）

Translation

The government will start to support Tsushima City, Nagasaki Prefecture, in considering that tourists from South Korea had drastically decreased due to deterioration of Japan-Korea relations. This was an unusual supporting strategy to attract customers from a wide range of countries and regions, targeting “tourism destinations with a high percentage of tourists from specific markets”. The Japan Tourism Agency and the Cabinet Office would subsidize the development of travel product’s sales channels and tourism resources, which would be included in the revised budget draft to be finalized by the Cabinet on the 13th. 　

Tsushima City was a remote island with a population of about 30,000 located 50 kilometers southeast of Busan, South Korea. Nearly 410,000 visitors to Japan in 2018 were from Korea. Tourism was a major pillar of the local economy.

However, Korea-Japan relations deteriorated in response to a ruling in October last year that the Korean Grand Court (Supreme Court) ordered a Japanese company to compensate the former workers. Since this summer, when Japan had tightened restrictions on exports to South Korea, the number of Korean customers in Tsushima fell significantly, with a 90% drop in November compared with the previous year. In January-November it was only 250,000 people, and the city sought assistance from the country.

To overcome this situation, the Japan Tourism Agency might support efforts to increase the number of Japanese customers and the Cabinet Office would include 250 million to 300 million yen in the supplementary budget. When budgeting, the Japan Tourism Agency said there was a possibility of targets other than Tsushima. The Cabinet Office positioned its project purpose as maintaining local communities on remote islands that had inhabitants.

Specifically, foreign experts would be invited to the area to investigate the visitor accepting environment such as multilingual guides and traffic access, as well as the tourism resources of the area. They would support the development of strategies such as in the future over which countries / regions and customers should they targeted their travel products. They also supported initiatives such as creating new tourism resources and inviting “Influencer” and travel agencies with the ability to communicate through SNS to promote local communities.         (Ayako Oikawa)

       

          So, tourism in Japan is affected by its poor relationship with Korea.

China to self make the information systems: an expectation to eliminate the US - "100% in 2022" for all party government agencies

Recently Nihon Keizai Shimbun electronic version reported the following:

中国、情報システム国産化　米排除の思惑も

「22年に100%」 党政府機関向け

貿易摩擦 習政権 ネット・IT 中国・台湾 アジアBiz

2019/12/9 21:43日本経済新聞　電子版

レノボのパソコン販売に追い風になる可能性もある（北京市内の発表会）

【北京=多部田俊輔】中国の習近平（シー・ジンピン）指導部は2022年を目標に、共産党や政府機関の情報システムをすべて中国製に切り替える。パソコンや基本ソフト（OS）が対象に含まれる可能性がある。米中ハイテク覇権の争いが激化しており、米国製を排除して自国のIT（情報技術）産業を育成するとともに、米中貿易交渉のカードにするとの見方も取り沙汰される。

複数の地方政府の関係者が、6月までに党中央や省などから党政府機関の情報システムの調達に関する通知を受け取ったと明らかにした。20年から22年までの3年間で、党政府機関の情報システムのすべてを国産の製品に切り替える内容だ。

通知に具体的な製品やソフトウエアが記載されているかは不明だ。関係者によると、パソコンのほか、米マイクロソフト（MS）のOS「ウィンドウズ」や業務ソフトの「オフィス」も対象になる可能性がある。米アドビシステムズの電子文書ソフトや、米インテルなどが手がけるパソコン向けCPU（中央演算処理装置）が含まれるとの見方も出ている。

通知によると、国産化の目標は20年が30%、21年は80%、22年に100%とする計画だ。習指導部が国産化を進める理由について、地方政府関係者は「情報セキュリティーの強化とIT産業の育成だ」と指摘する。

米商務省は5月、中国通信機器最大手の華為技術（ファーウェイ）に対して事実上の輸出禁止措置を科した。習指導部は米政府が中国製品を排除する動きは変わらないと判断し、IT製品やソフトウエアの内製化を促す長期戦略にカジを切った可能性がある。

一方、通達が出されたのは米中貿易交渉が暗礁に乗り上げていた時期に重なる。「難航する交渉を有利に進めるためのカードとしての意味合いを持つ」（中国IT企業幹部）との分析もある。

中国のIT業界に詳しい専門家によると、米HPや米デルなどパソコンの大半は中国で組み立てられており、「中国製に限定することの難易度は高くない」。22年までの3年間でおよそ中国国内需要の1割強に相当する2千万台が切り替えの対象となり、中国のレノボ・グループなどに新規需要をもたらす見通しだ。

OSなどソフトウエアは米企業の存在感が強い。中国メディアによると、パソコンのOSでMSのウィンドウズの中国シェアは9割近くに達する。外資系IT企業の幹部は「米国製OSは普及率が高く、中国製への代替は容易ではない」と指摘する。

習指導部の後押しを受けて、中国企業も開発を急ぐ。OSでは国有企業の中国電子信息産業集団傘下の企業が「銀河麒麟」などを提供する。中国の業務ソフトの国内シェアではMS「オフィス」の約6割に対し、金山軟件（キングソフト）が約4割を握るとされる。電子文書ソフトではアドビが中心になっているが、中国の万興科技もソフトを提供している。

12年に発足した習指導部は15年にハイテク産業育成政策「中国製造2025」を発表し、情報システム開発を強化してきた。今回の国産化の方針も、米国に対する競争力の向上をにらんだ長期的な産業政策の一環とみられる。

Translation

[BEIJING Taveta Shunsuke] Xi Jinping Guidance Department of China had set the goal of switching the information system of the Communist Party and government organizations into all made-in-China by 2022. PCs and basic software (OS) might be included as the target. The fight for US-China high-tech supremacy was intensifying, and this would eliminate US-made products and foster domestic IT (information technology) industry, some rumors said that this could be used as a card for US-China trade negotiations.

A number of local government officials expressed that by June they had received from the party center and ministry notifications about the procurement of information systems for party government agencies. The notice said that in the three years from 2020 to 2022, all the information systems of the party government agencies should be switched to domestic products.

It was unclear if the notification contained a specific product or software. According to officials, in addition to PCs, Microsoft (MS) OS “Windows” and business software “Offices” might also be targeted. Some said that it included electronic document software from Adobe Systems and CPU (central processing unit) for personal computers handled by Intel.

According to the notice, the target for domestic products would be 30% for 2020, 80% for 2021, and 100% for 2022. A local government official pointed out that the reasons for Xi Guidance Department to promote domestic production were “the strengthening of information security and the development of the IT industry”.

In May, the US Department of Commerce imposed a de facto export ban on Huawei which was China's largest communications equipment maker. Xi Guidance Department might have judged that the US government's move to eliminate Chinese products would stay, and thus shifted its long-term strategy to promote in-house production of IT products and software.

On the other hand, this notification was issued at the same time when the US-China trade negotiations were on the reef. There was also an analysis (by some China IT company executives). that it had a meaning of become a card to advance the difficult trade negotiations favorable to them.

According to experts in the Chinese IT industry, most PCs such as US HP and Dell US were assembled in China, and "the difficulty of limiting them to Chinese products is not high." In the three years up to 2010, 20 million units, which was equivalent to more than 10% of the domestic demand in China, would be the target of switching, and it was expected to bring new demand to the Lenovo Group etc. in China.

Software such as OS had a strong presence in US companies. According to Chinese media, MS's Windows share in China was nearly 90% in PC OS. A senior executive from a foreign IT company pointed out that “US-made OSs have a high penetration rate and it is not easy to replace them with Chinese ones”.

With the support of the Xi Guidance department, Chinese companies rushed to develop. In the OS, companies belonging to the state-owned Chinese electronic communications industry group would provide “Kylin” OS and other items. In terms of the domestic market share of business software in China, the MS “office” accounted for about 60% and Jīnshān Ruǎnjiàn (KINGSOFT) accounted for about 40%. While Adobe was the leading electronic document software, China's Wanxing Technology also provided software.

The Xi Guidance Department, which was established in 2012, announced the high-tech industry development policy “Chinese Manufacturing 2025” in 2015 and had strengthened its information system development. This domestic production policy now could also be seen as part of a long-term industrial policy that aimed at improving competitiveness against the United States.

       So, China's  new domestic production policy in computers could be seen as a response to counter the US policy in barring Hauwei. Obviously, the US-China trade disputes will spill over into many other areas even after the phase-one trade agreement is concluded.

China's GDP would double, even if it could merely achieve a 5% level next year - with statistics corrections

Recently Nihon Keizai Shimbun electronic version reported the following:

中国GDP倍増、来年5%台でも達成 統計修正で

米中衝突 中国・台湾

2019/12/9 18:00日本経済新聞　電子版

【北京=原田逸策】中国共産党が掲げる2020年の国内総生産（GDP）を10年比で倍増する目標について、20年のGDP成長率が6%を割っても達成できる可能性が高いことがわかった。11月に公表した経済センサス調査を受け、過去に遡ってGDPの数値を改定するためだ。10日に始まる経済分野の重要会議、中央経済工作会議での議論にも影響しそうだ。

物価変動を考慮した実質GDPを「10年比2倍にする」との目標は12年の党大会で決めた。20年に82兆4千億元（約1270兆円）を上回ればよく、18年の実質GDPは73兆1千億元。19～20年に平均6.2%成長すれば達成できる計算だ。

19年の成長率は1～9月に前年同期比6.2%だが、7～9月期は6%まで減速した。多くのエコノミストは20年の成長率が6%を割ると予想しており、目標の達成が危ぶまれていた。

援軍は11月に公表した5年に1度の経済センサスだ。零細企業の把握が進むため、調査後にGDPを改定してきた。今回は18年分の名目GDPを2.1%上方修正した。

国家統計局は今後、実質GDPも過去に遡って上方修正する見通しだ。多くのエコノミストは過去に遡るほどGDPの修正幅は小さくなる、とみる。倍増目標の基準年となる10年の上方修正幅が18年より小さければ、目標達成には有利に働く。

中国の興業証券の試算では、実質GDPを10年は0.5%、18年は1%それぞれ上方修正する場合、19年通年の成長率が6.1%ならば20年は5.8%でも目標を達成できる。いまより0.4ポイントも下がる計算だ。

共産党は10日開く中央経済工作会議で20年の経済運営方針を決める。20年の経済成長率の政府目標も議論するが、6%を下回る成長でも倍増目標を実現できるならば、無理に高めの目標を設定する必要はなくなる。

Translation

[Beijing = Hadada Misaku] The Communist Party's goal of doubling GDP in 2020 in 10 years was likely to be achieved even if the GDP growth rate in 2020 would be less than 6%.  This was because in the economic census survey announced in November, the GDP figures were revised retroactively. It was likely to affect the discussions at the Central Economic Work Conference, an important economic conference that was started on the 10th.

The goal of doubling real GDP, taking into account price fluctuations, was decided at the 2012 party convention. It just needed to exceed 82.400 billion yuan in 2020 (approximately 1270 trillion yen), as the real GDP in 2018 was 73.100 billion yuan. The calculation could be achievable if an average growth of 6.2% could be reached in 2019-20.

The growth rate in 2019 was 6.2% compared the same period of the previous year in January-September, but it slowed to 6% in July-September. Many economists expected the 2020 growth rate to fall below 6%, jeopardizing the goal.

A help was found in an economic census announced in November that was done once every five years. In order to understand micro enterprises, the GDP was revised after the survey. This time, the nominal GDP for 2018 was revised up 2.1%.

The National Bureau of Statistics was forecasting that real GDP would also be revised upward retroactively. Many economists envisioned that the extent of GDP adjustments would be smaller as they went back in time. As 2010 was the base year targeted for the doubling, if upward revision range was smaller than that of 2018, it would help maneuvering in achieving the goal.

 According to an estimate using China’s Xìngyè Securities figures, if the real GDP for 2010 was revised upward by 0.5% and for 2018 by 1%, then even if the growth rate in 2019 was 6.1%, the target of achieving a doubling could be achieved even it was 5.8% for 2020. It was a calculation with 0.4 points lower than the present.

At the Central Economic Work Conference held on the 10th the Communist Party decided the economic management policy for 2020. The government goal of economic growth for 2020 was discussed, if they could achieve the doubling target even with growth below 6%, it would not be necessary to set a higher target.

           It is interesting to note that in mainland China economic statistics could be adjusted for political needs. This is one of the many cultural differences between western countries and China in perceiving and doing things. Perhaps it may be one of the outward expressions of the so called “a socialist system with Chinese characteristics”.