美國農業經濟開始受到特朗普關稅的首次衝擊

 Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

US farm economy is starting to see first hits from Trump tariffs

Bloomberg - Gerson Freitas Jr.

Updated Fri, May 9, 2025 at 9:10 a.m. PDT 3 min read

(Bloomberg) — Donald Trump’s tariffs are upending crop trading, delaying tractor purchases and constraining imports of chemical supplies into the US.

That’s the main message from big agricultural businesses as they report their quarterly earnings, giving an early glimpse into the far-reaching impacts of the US president’s trade war.

The disruptions in global trade threaten to extend a years-long slump in the US farm industry, which had already been struggling with ample supplies, depressed crop prices and rising competition from Brazil. Lack of clarity on how the Trump administration will address much-needed incentives for crop-based fuels in the next few years has added to concerns.

Crop traders and processors have been among the hardest-hit. Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. and Bunge Global SA saw their combined operating profits slump by about $750 million in the first quarter, with both companies citing an impact from trade and biofuel policy uncertainty.

Importers put off purchases of US grain and oilseeds as Trump threatened tariffs as well as levies on any Chinese vessels docking at American ports, reducing trade flows, according to crop merchant The Andersons Inc.

“Global trade uncertainties disrupted typical grain flows and caused many of our commercial customers to focus on just-in-time purchasing,” William Krueger, The Andersons chief executive officer, said Wednesday in a call with investors.

Tractor makers CNH Industrial NV and AGCO Corp. also reported lower first-quarter sales, and warned of the potential of reduced demand for farmers, which would give them less to spend on machines to plant, harvest and treat their fields. Both companies have raised prices to ease the impact of tariffs on costs.

“Geopolitical uncertainties and trade frictions have dampened US farmer sentiment recently,” AGCO CEO Eric Hansotia said during a conference call with analysts. “As a result, demand for machinery was lower in the quarter than we had expected.”

Duties also threaten to curb imports of some fertilizer and pesticide supplies. Shipments of phosphate — a key crop nourishing ingredient — into the US have trailed last year’s levels because vessels have been diverted to other countries to avoid the nation’s 10% tariff, Mosaic Co. said in its earnings statement.

“The phosphate market remains tight, and while tariffs could disrupt trade flows, they cannot create more phosphate supply,” CEO Bruce Bodine said on a conference call with investors.

Farmers are expected to pay more for pesticides as the US relies on tariff-hit countries such as China and India for some of its supplies. Nutrien Ltd. said its branded products could potentially cost as much as 7.5% more, with even higher adjustments expected for generic ingredients, as a result.

“Long story short is, we’re going to see price increases,” Jeff Tarsi, Nutrien’s president of global retail, said on a Thursday call. “Our plan is to pass those price increases through to our customers.”

Brazil is emerging as a winner from the trade tensions. Minerva SA said tariff turmoil drove increased Chinese demand and higher export prices for South American beef in the first quarter, helping lift profits for the Brazilian supplier. Meanwhile, China has effectively shut its market for US meat exporters including Smithfield Foods Inc.

China, the world’s largest commodity importer, has already shifted to Brazil for a meaningful part of its soybean needs since Trump first raised tariffs on goods from the Asian nation in 2018.

“Any harmful impacts to the US grower profitability stemming from tariffs and trade flow shifts” are likely to benefit Brazilian growers, Jenny Wang, executive vice president of commercial at Mosaic, said in the call with analysts.

—With assistance from Michael Hirtzer and Ilena Peng.

Translation

美國農業經濟開始受到特朗普關稅的首次衝擊

（彭博）— 特朗普的關稅正在顛覆農作物貿易、推遲拖拉機採購並限制化學品進口美國。

這是大型農業企業在報告季度收益時傳達的主要訊息，讓人們提前看到了美國總統貿易戰的深遠影響。

全球貿易中斷有可能使美國農業產業持續多年的低迷狀態延續下去，美國農業產業已經因供應充足、農作物價格低迷以及來自巴西的競爭加劇而陷入困境。特朗普政府尚未明確表明如何在未來幾年, 處理要急需解決的, 由農作物轉換而成的燃料的刺激措施，這加劇了人們的擔憂。

農作物貿易商和加工商是受打擊最嚴重的群體之一。Archer-Daniels-Midland Co 和 Bunge Global SA 第一季的合併營業利潤暴跌約 7.5 億美元，兩家公司都表示受到貿易和生物燃料政策不確定性的影響。

據農作物貿易商 Andersons Inc.稱，由於特朗普威脅對停靠美國港口的所有中國船隻徵收關稅和費用，導致貿易流量減少，進口商推遲了對美國穀物和油籽的購買。

Andersons 執行長 William Krueger 週三在與投資者的電話會議上表示： “全球貿易的不確定性擾亂了典型的糧食流動，並導致我們的許多商業客戶改為專注於即時採購。”

拖拉機製造商 CNH Industrial NV 和 AGCO Corp. 也報告第一季銷售額下降，並警告農民的需求可能會減少，這將導致他們在種植、收割和處理田地的機械方面的支出減少。兩家公司都已提高價格，以緩解關稅對成本的影響。

AGCO 首席執行官 Eric Hansotia 在與分析師的電話會議上表示： “地緣政治不確定性和貿易摩擦最近挫低了美國農民的情緒”; “因此，本季度的機械需求低於我們的預期。”

關稅也可能抑制部分化肥和殺蟲劑的進口。Mosaic公司在收益聲明中表示，由於船隻為了逃避美國 10% 的關稅而改道前往其他國家，磷酸鹽作為一種重要的農作物營養成分的進口美國量已低於去年的水平。

執行長 Bruce Bodine 在與投資者的電話會議上表示： “磷酸鹽市場仍然緊張，雖然關稅可能會擾亂貿易流動，但不會創造更多的磷酸鹽供應。”

由於美國依賴中國和印度等受到關稅影響的國家提供部分農藥，預計農民將支付更多農藥費用。 Nutrien Ltd. 表示，其有品牌產品的價格可能會上漲 7.5%，因受影響通用成分的價格調整, 幅度預計會更大。

Nutrien 全球零售總裁 Jeff Tarsi 在周四的電話會議上表示： “長話短說，我們將會看到價格上漲”; “我們的計劃是將價格上漲轉嫁給我們的客戶。”

巴西正在成為貿易緊張局勢的贏家。 Minerva SA 表示，關稅動盪導致第一季中國需求增加，南美牛肉出口價格上漲，從而幫助這家巴西供應商提高了利潤。同時，中國實際上已經關閉了包括Smithfield 食品公司在內的美國肉類出口商的中國市場。

自2018年特朗普首次提高對亞洲國家商品的關稅以來，中國作為全球最大的大宗商品進口國，其大豆需求的很大一部分已經轉向巴西。

Mosaic 商務執行副總裁 Jenny Wang 在與分析師的電話會議中表示，「任何因關稅和貿易流向轉變而對美國種植者的獲利能力造成不利的影響」, 都可能使巴西種植者受益。

              So, Trump’s tariffs are disrupting crop trading, delaying tractor purchases and constraining imports of chemical supplies into the US. These disruptions threaten the US farm industry which has already been struggling with decreasing crop prices and rising competition from Brazil. How the Trump administration will address agriculture problems has become a concern for many American farmers. Apparently, Trump has forgotten the importance of food safety.