美國農業經濟開始受到特朗普關稅的首次衝擊

 Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

US farm economy is starting to see first hits from Trump tariffs

Bloomberg - Gerson Freitas Jr.

Updated Fri, May 9, 2025 at 9:10 a.m. PDT 3 min read

(Bloomberg) — Donald Trump’s tariffs are upending crop trading, delaying tractor purchases and constraining imports of chemical supplies into the US.

That’s the main message from big agricultural businesses as they report their quarterly earnings, giving an early glimpse into the far-reaching impacts of the US president’s trade war.

The disruptions in global trade threaten to extend a years-long slump in the US farm industry, which had already been struggling with ample supplies, depressed crop prices and rising competition from Brazil. Lack of clarity on how the Trump administration will address much-needed incentives for crop-based fuels in the next few years has added to concerns.

Crop traders and processors have been among the hardest-hit. Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. and Bunge Global SA saw their combined operating profits slump by about $750 million in the first quarter, with both companies citing an impact from trade and biofuel policy uncertainty.

Importers put off purchases of US grain and oilseeds as Trump threatened tariffs as well as levies on any Chinese vessels docking at American ports, reducing trade flows, according to crop merchant The Andersons Inc.

“Global trade uncertainties disrupted typical grain flows and caused many of our commercial customers to focus on just-in-time purchasing,” William Krueger, The Andersons chief executive officer, said Wednesday in a call with investors.

Tractor makers CNH Industrial NV and AGCO Corp. also reported lower first-quarter sales, and warned of the potential of reduced demand for farmers, which would give them less to spend on machines to plant, harvest and treat their fields. Both companies have raised prices to ease the impact of tariffs on costs.

“Geopolitical uncertainties and trade frictions have dampened US farmer sentiment recently,” AGCO CEO Eric Hansotia said during a conference call with analysts. “As a result, demand for machinery was lower in the quarter than we had expected.”

Duties also threaten to curb imports of some fertilizer and pesticide supplies. Shipments of phosphate — a key crop nourishing ingredient — into the US have trailed last year’s levels because vessels have been diverted to other countries to avoid the nation’s 10% tariff, Mosaic Co. said in its earnings statement.

“The phosphate market remains tight, and while tariffs could disrupt trade flows, they cannot create more phosphate supply,” CEO Bruce Bodine said on a conference call with investors.

Farmers are expected to pay more for pesticides as the US relies on tariff-hit countries such as China and India for some of its supplies. Nutrien Ltd. said its branded products could potentially cost as much as 7.5% more, with even higher adjustments expected for generic ingredients, as a result.

“Long story short is, we’re going to see price increases,” Jeff Tarsi, Nutrien’s president of global retail, said on a Thursday call. “Our plan is to pass those price increases through to our customers.”

Brazil is emerging as a winner from the trade tensions. Minerva SA said tariff turmoil drove increased Chinese demand and higher export prices for South American beef in the first quarter, helping lift profits for the Brazilian supplier. Meanwhile, China has effectively shut its market for US meat exporters including Smithfield Foods Inc.

China, the world’s largest commodity importer, has already shifted to Brazil for a meaningful part of its soybean needs since Trump first raised tariffs on goods from the Asian nation in 2018.

“Any harmful impacts to the US grower profitability stemming from tariffs and trade flow shifts” are likely to benefit Brazilian growers, Jenny Wang, executive vice president of commercial at Mosaic, said in the call with analysts.

—With assistance from Michael Hirtzer and Ilena Peng.

Translation

美國農業經濟開始受到特朗普關稅的首次衝擊

（彭博）— 特朗普的關稅正在顛覆農作物貿易、推遲拖拉機採購並限制化學品進口美國。

這是大型農業企業在報告季度收益時傳達的主要訊息，讓人們提前看到了美國總統貿易戰的深遠影響。

全球貿易中斷有可能使美國農業產業持續多年的低迷狀態延續下去，美國農業產業已經因供應充足、農作物價格低迷以及來自巴西的競爭加劇而陷入困境。特朗普政府尚未明確表明如何在未來幾年, 處理要急需解決的, 由農作物轉換而成的燃料的刺激措施，這加劇了人們的擔憂。

農作物貿易商和加工商是受打擊最嚴重的群體之一。Archer-Daniels-Midland Co 和 Bunge Global SA 第一季的合併營業利潤暴跌約 7.5 億美元，兩家公司都表示受到貿易和生物燃料政策不確定性的影響。

據農作物貿易商 Andersons Inc.稱，由於特朗普威脅對停靠美國港口的所有中國船隻徵收關稅和費用，導致貿易流量減少，進口商推遲了對美國穀物和油籽的購買。

Andersons 執行長 William Krueger 週三在與投資者的電話會議上表示： “全球貿易的不確定性擾亂了典型的糧食流動，並導致我們的許多商業客戶改為專注於即時採購。”

拖拉機製造商 CNH Industrial NV 和 AGCO Corp. 也報告第一季銷售額下降，並警告農民的需求可能會減少，這將導致他們在種植、收割和處理田地的機械方面的支出減少。兩家公司都已提高價格，以緩解關稅對成本的影響。

AGCO 首席執行官 Eric Hansotia 在與分析師的電話會議上表示： “地緣政治不確定性和貿易摩擦最近挫低了美國農民的情緒”; “因此，本季度的機械需求低於我們的預期。”

關稅也可能抑制部分化肥和殺蟲劑的進口。Mosaic公司在收益聲明中表示，由於船隻為了逃避美國 10% 的關稅而改道前往其他國家，磷酸鹽作為一種重要的農作物營養成分的進口美國量已低於去年的水平。

執行長 Bruce Bodine 在與投資者的電話會議上表示： “磷酸鹽市場仍然緊張，雖然關稅可能會擾亂貿易流動，但不會創造更多的磷酸鹽供應。”

由於美國依賴中國和印度等受到關稅影響的國家提供部分農藥，預計農民將支付更多農藥費用。 Nutrien Ltd. 表示，其有品牌產品的價格可能會上漲 7.5%，因受影響通用成分的價格調整, 幅度預計會更大。

Nutrien 全球零售總裁 Jeff Tarsi 在周四的電話會議上表示： “長話短說，我們將會看到價格上漲”; “我們的計劃是將價格上漲轉嫁給我們的客戶。”

巴西正在成為貿易緊張局勢的贏家。 Minerva SA 表示，關稅動盪導致第一季中國需求增加，南美牛肉出口價格上漲，從而幫助這家巴西供應商提高了利潤。同時，中國實際上已經關閉了包括Smithfield 食品公司在內的美國肉類出口商的中國市場。

自2018年特朗普首次提高對亞洲國家商品的關稅以來，中國作為全球最大的大宗商品進口國，其大豆需求的很大一部分已經轉向巴西。

Mosaic 商務執行副總裁 Jenny Wang 在與分析師的電話會議中表示，「任何因關稅和貿易流向轉變而對美國種植者的獲利能力造成不利的影響」, 都可能使巴西種植者受益。

              So, Trump’s tariffs are disrupting crop trading, delaying tractor purchases and constraining imports of chemical supplies into the US. These disruptions threaten the US farm industry which has already been struggling with decreasing crop prices and rising competition from Brazil. How the Trump administration will address agriculture problems has become a concern for many American farmers. Apparently, Trump has forgotten the importance of food safety.

日本貿易特使稱，日本堅持要求美國取消關稅

 Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

Japan is sticking to demand for US to eliminate tariffs, trade envoy says

Reuters -Leika Kihara

Mon, May 19, 2025 at 7:24 p.m. PDT·2 min read

TOKYO (Reuters) -Japan's top trade negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, said on Tuesday there was no change to Tokyo's stance of demanding an elimination of U.S. tariffs in bilateral trade negotiations.

Tokyo will not rush into clinching a trade deal if doing so risked hurting the country's interests, he said.

"The slew of U.S. tariffs including reciprocal tariffs as well as those on automobiles, car parts, steel and aluminium, are regrettable. There's no change to our stance of seeking a review, which is to say an elimination, of them," Akazawa told a regular press conference.

Akazawa said the two countries held working-level trade talks in Washington on Monday. The schedule of a third round of ministerial-level negotiations was yet to be fixed, he added.

Japan's Kyodo news agency reported on Tuesday that Akazawa will travel to Washington this week to attend the third round of talks potentially starting on Friday.

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer is expected to attend the talks, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will be absent, Kyodo reported without citing sources.

On April 2, U.S. President Donald Trump imposed 10% tariffs on all countries except Canada, Mexico and China, along with higher tariff rates for many big trading partners, including Japan, which faces a 24% tariff rate starting in July unless it can negotiate a deal with Washington.

Japanese policymakers and ruling party lawmakers have said they see no merit in striking a deal with the United States unless a 25% tariff on automobile imports is lifted, given the industry's economic importance.

While Japan was the first major economy to start bilateral trade talks with Washington, Britain was the first to strike a deal with the Trump administration. China and the United States also agreed to a 90-day truce in their trade war that had threatened a global recession.

With initial hope of a quick deal failing, the Nikkei newspaper reported last week that Japan may water down its demand to a reduction, rather than an elimination, of U.S. tariffs.

A source with knowledge of the negotiations has told Reuters that Japan is considering a package of proposals to gain U.S. concessions that may include increased imports of U.S. corn and soy, technical cooperation in shipbuilding, and revision to inspection standards for imported automobiles.

(Reporting by Leika Kihara; Editing by Tom Hogue and Shri Navaratnam)

Translation

日本貿易特使稱，日本堅持要求美國取消關稅

東京（路透社）—日本首席貿易談判代表赤澤良聖 (Ryosei Akazawa) 週二表示，東京要求在雙邊貿易談判中取消美國關稅的立場沒有改變。

他說，如果貿易協議可能會損害日本的利益，東京就不會急於達成協議。

赤澤在例行新聞發布會上表示： “美國徵收的大量關稅，包括對等關稅以及針對汽車、汽車零件、鋼鐵和鋁的關稅，令人遺憾。我們尋求重新審視的立場沒有改變，也就是說, 要取消這些關稅。”

赤澤稱，兩國週一在華盛頓舉行了工作級別的貿易會談。他補充說，第三輪部長級談判的時間表尚未確定。

日本共同社週二報道稱，赤澤本週將前往華盛頓參加可能在週五開始的第三輪會談。

共同社在未引述消息來源之下稱，美國貿易代表 Jamieson Greer 預計將出席此次會談，而財政部長貝森特將缺席。

4月2日，美國總統特朗普對除加拿大、墨西哥和中國以外的所有國家徵收10%的關稅，同時對包括日本在內的許多主要貿易夥伴提高關稅稅率，即從7月開始面臨24%的關稅稅率, 除非能與華盛頓達成協議。

日本政策制定者和執政黨議員表示，鑑於汽車產業的經濟重要性，他們認為除非取消 25% 的汽車進口關稅，否則與美國達成協議毫無意義。

日本是第一個與華盛頓展開雙邊貿易談判的主要經濟體，而英國則是第一個與特朗普政府達成協議的國家。中國和美國也同意就威脅全球經濟衰退的貿易戰實行為期 90 天的休戰。

日本由於最初希望快速達成協議的願望落空，《日經新聞》上週報道稱，它可能會降低其要求，即是降低美國關稅而不是取消它。

一位了解談判情況的消息人士告訴路透社，日本正在考慮一攬子提議以獲得美國的讓步，其中可能包括增加美國玉米和大豆的進口、造船方面的技術合作以及修改檢驗進口汽車的標準。

So, while Japan's stance is to demand an elimination of U.S. tariffs in bilateral trade negotiations, a source with knowledge of the negotiations has said that Japan is considering a package of proposals to gain U.S. concessions that may include increased imports of U.S. agricultural products, technical cooperation in shipbuilding, and revision to inspection standards for imported automobiles. Apparently, Japan is an important US ally in Asia, I am interested in knowing how the future agreement will look like.

獨家：貿易商稱，高溫影響小麥作物，中國採購加拿大和澳洲小麥

 Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

Exclusive-China buys Canadian, Australian wheat as heat hits crop, traders say

Reuters - Michael Hogan, Peter Hobson and Gus Trompiz

Fri, May 9, 2025 at 2:44 p.m. PDT 3 min read

HAMBURG/CANBERRA/PARIS (Reuters) -Chinese buyers bought between 400,000 and 500,000 metric tons of wheat from Australia and Canada in recent weeks, traders said, as heat threatens to damage crops in China’s agricultural heartlands.

China is the world's top wheat grower and also imports large amounts of grain when domestic supply falls short of demand.

Earlier this week, Henan province, which grows about a third of China's crop, issued a risk warning as hot, dry weather threatened the wheat growing in its fields.

Chinese buyers have purchased four or five 55,000-ton shipments of wheat from Australia for delivery in July or August and around 200,000 tons from Canada, sources at two major trading firms in Australia said. The wheat is of milling quality.

The bookings from Australia were the first made by China from the country since last year, said one of the traders.

COFCO, the state-owned Chinese firm that handles most of the country's wheat imports, did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

China has in recent years been one of the world's biggest wheat importers, buying in around 11 million tons worth $3.5 billion in 2024. Australia and Canada are typically its biggest suppliers.

But shipments slowed sharply after China reaped large wheat and corn harvests last year and have since remained low.

China delayed or redirected shipments from Australia earlier this year and imported less than a million tons of wheat in the seven months to March 31, Chinese customs data accessed through Trade Data Monitor show.

One of the sources said their company had lowered its forecast of Chinese 2025 wheat production by around 5 million tons but there was no guarantee that more purchases would follow because China has large wheat inventories.

"China is well self-sufficient in feed grains this crop year with heavy stocks," said Rod Baker, an analyst at Australian Crop Forecasters in Perth, adding that faltering economic growth in China was also depressing demand for grains.

Talk of Canadian wheat sales to China has echoed around agricultural business circles in Winnipeg, Canada's grain industry capital, according to traders. Few concrete details on the sales have emerged.

Chinese buyers would have avoided buying U.S. wheat due to tariffs and the trade war between Washington and Beijing, one trader said. China in the past has been a top destination for U.S. wheat sales.

The drop-off in Chinese imports earlier in the current 2024/25 season had contributed to subdued international wheat prices, with benchmark futures in Chicago still near a four-year low touched last July.

Along with weather risks to China's upcoming harvest, attractive prices may have lured Chinese importers back into the market as the 2025/26 season approaches, traders said.

 

BARLEY

Chinese importers also booked a large amount of barley, according to traders.

Some said that six panamax bulk carriers carrying around 360,000 tons of French or Ukrainian new-crop barley had been sold for delivery in July or August, with others putting the volume much higher at around 1 million tons, also for shipment this summer.

"Chinese wheat and barley import buying has been very quiet in the past year and these are the first major deals I have seen in many months," a German trader said.

Feed barley purchases with optional origin were from Ukraine or France. The deals were done at a price of around $250-$254 a tonne delivered to China, one trader said.

Translation

獨家：貿易商稱，高溫影響小麥作物，中國採購加拿大和澳洲小麥

 漢堡/坎培拉/巴黎（路透社）—貿易商稱，由於高溫威脅到中國農業中心地帶的農作物，中國買家最近幾週從澳洲和加拿大購買了 40 萬至 50 萬噸小麥。

中國是世界上最大的小麥生產國，當國內供不應求時，也會進口大量糧食。

本週早些時候，佔中國小麥產量三分之一的河南省發佈了風險警告，稱炎熱乾燥的天氣威脅著該省小麥的生長。

澳洲兩家主要貿易公司的消息人士稱，中國買家已從澳洲購買了四、五批 55,000 噸小麥，將於 7 月或 8 月交貨，並從加拿大購買了約 20 萬噸。該小麥具有良好的製粉品質。

一位貿易商表示，這是自去年以來中國首次從澳洲訂購。

負責處理中國大部分小麥進口的中國國營企業中糧集團(COFCO)沒有立即回應置評請求。

近年來，中國一直是世界上最大的小麥進口國之一，2024年進口量約1,100萬噸，價值35億美元。澳洲和加拿大通常是其最大的供應國。

但去年中國小麥和玉米大豐收後，入口量急劇放緩，此後一直維持在低位。

透過貿易數據監測 獲得的中國海關數據顯示，今年早些時候，中國推遲或改變了從澳洲進口小麥，截至 3 月 31 日的七個月內進口的小麥不足一百萬噸。

其中一位消息人士稱，他們的公司已將中國2025年小麥產量預測下調了約500萬噸，但由於中國小麥庫存量龐大，因此無法保證會增加採購量。

Australian Crop Forecasters 駐珀斯的分析師 Rod Baker 表示: 「「今年農事年中國飼料穀物自給自足，庫存充足」, 他又補充說，中國經濟成長放緩也抑制了對穀物的需求。

據貿易商稱，有關加拿大向中國銷售小麥的傳聞在加拿大糧食產業中心溫尼伯的農業商業圈中引起了廣泛討論。關於此次銷售的具體細節尚未被透露。

一位交易員表示，由於關稅和華盛頓與北京之間的貿易戰，中國買家會避免購買美國小麥。中國過去一直是美國小麥的主要出售目的地。

2024/25年度早些時候，中國進口量下降導致國際小麥價格低迷，芝加哥基準期貨價格仍接近去年7月觸及的四年低點。

貿易商表示，除了中國即將到來的收成面臨天氣風險外，隨著 2025/26 年度的臨近，誘人的價格可能吸引中國經銷商重返市場。

 

大麥

據貿易商稱，中國進口商也訂購了大量大麥。

有些人表示，六艘巴拿馬型散裝貨船載有約 36 萬噸法國或烏克蘭新收穫的大麥已經售出並在 7 月或 8 月交付，另一些人則表示數量要高得多，約為 100 萬噸，將於今年夏天發貨。

一位德國貿易商表示： “過去一年，中國小麥和大麥的進口採購一直很淡靜，這是我幾個月來第一次看到的大宗交易。”

飼料大麥的採購來源可選擇烏克蘭或法國。一位貿易商稱，運往中國的交易價格約為每噸 250 至 254 美元。

       So, Chinese buyers have bought between 400,000 and 500,000 metric tons of wheat from Australia and Canada recently as heat threatens to damage crops in China’s agricultural heartlands. Chinese buyers are avoiding U.S. wheat due to tariffs amidst a trade war. Apparently, China is reducing its dependence on some agricultural products from the US.

 

Note:

1. Panamax bulk carrier - In the field of shipping and trade, Panamax bulk carrier refers to a type of ship that meets the standards for passage through the Panama Canal and is widely used to transport various bulk cargoes.

意外的貿易休戰後，中美兩國再次陷入爭執 (2/2)

Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following

US and China are already feuding again after unexpected trade truce (2/2)

Nectar Gan, CNN

Tue, May 20, 2025 at 11:23 p.m. PDT·6 min read

(continue)

Nvidia chief bemoans controls

As Huawei accelerates efforts to develop its own high-performance chips, US chip giant Nvidia is increasingly concerned about losing access to the Chinese market, after the Trump administration restricted the export of its H20 AI chips to China.

Speaking at Taiwan’s annual Computex trade show on Wednesday, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said the ban had forced the company to write off “multiple billion dollars” of inventory. “The cost to us is very high,” he added.

Huang estimated that the China market could be worth $50 billion next year. “It would be a shame not to be able to enjoy that opportunity, bring home tax revenues to the United States, create jobs, sustain the industry,” he said. “I believe the US government should allow American technology to serve and participate and compete in the China market.”

Huang also used the occasion to criticize US export controls to China, saying they gave Chinese AI companies “the spirit, the energy and the government support” to accelerate their own development.

“I think, all in all, export control was a failure,” he added.

But Huang did hail Trump’s rescinding of Biden-era curbs “a great reversal of a wrong policy,” handing Nvidia a big win in the Middle East.

“The fundamental assumptions that led to the AI Diffusion rule in the first place has been proven to be fundamentally flawed … and that fundamental assumption is that the United States is the only provider of AI, and it’s not obvious enough to me,” he said.

“If the United States wants to stay in the lead, and the United States would like the rest of the world to build on American technology, we need to maximize AI diffusion, maximize the speed. And that’s where we are today.”

Last week, Nvidia scored a major deal in Saudi Arabia by announcing a strategic partnership with startup Humain to build “AI factories” in the country with a projected capacity of up to 500 megawatts during US President Donald Trump’s visit to the Gulf.

To power those facilities, Nvidia will sell several hundred thousand of its most advanced graphic processing units there over the next five years, beginning with 18,000 of its top-of-the-line GB300 Grace Blackwell chips.

Analysts said the Gulf deals, which also involved AMD and Qualcomm, were possible because the Trump administration was able to “sidestep” the Biden-era curbs, which were rescinded before they could take effect.

--

CNN’s Wayne Chang and John Liu contributed reporting.

Translation

意外的貿易休戰後，中美兩國再次陷入爭執 (2/2)

（繼續）

Nvidia執行長抱怨限制

隨著華為加速研發自主高性能晶片，美國晶片巨頭英偉達越來越擔心失去進入中國市場的機會，因為特朗普政府限制了英偉達H20人工智能晶片對華出口。

英偉達執行長黃仁勳週三在台灣年度電腦展上表示，該禁令迫使該公司註銷了「數十億美元」的庫存。他補充說： “我們的代價非常高。”

黃估計，明年中國市場的價值可能達到 500 億美元。他說： “如果不能分享這樣的機會，不能為美國帶來稅收，不能創造就業機會，不能維持這個行業，那將是一種遺憾” ;“我認為美國政府應該允許美國技術在中國市場去服務,參與和競爭。”

黃也藉此機會批評了美國對中國的出口管制，稱這些管制為中國人工智能公司提供了 “精神、能量和政府支持”，去加速其自身發展。

他補充說： “我認為，總體而言，出口管制是個失敗。”

但黃仁勳確實稱讚特朗普撤銷拜登時代的限制是 “對錯誤政策的重大逆轉” ，這讓英偉達在中東取得了巨大勝利。

他說： “最初導致人工智能擴散規則的基本假設已被證明存在根本缺陷……而這個基本假設就是美國是人工智能的唯一提供者，但對我來說，這一點不夠明顯。”

如果美國想保持領先地位，並且希望世界其他國家能夠在美國技術的基礎上繼續發展，我們就需極力促進人工智能的普及，極力提高其速度。而這正是我們目前所處的位置。

上週，在美國總統特朗普訪問海灣地區期間，英偉達在沙地阿拉伯達成了一項重大交易,宣布與新創公司 Humain 建立戰略合作夥伴關係，在沙地阿拉伯建立 “人工智能慧工廠” ，預計工廠能產高達 500 兆瓦。

為了推動這些設施，Nvidia 將在未來五年內在那裡銷售數十萬個最先進的圖形處理器，首先是 18,000 個頂級 GB300 Grace Blackwell 晶片。

分析人士表示，海灣地區的交易也渉及 AMD 和 Qualcomm, 它之所以能夠達成，是因為特朗普政府能夠「避開」拜登時代的限制措施，這些限制措施在生效前就被撤銷了。。

So, the temporary truce over tariffs between United States and China has shown signs of trouble, this time over the future of Beijing’s most advanced homegrown semiconductors. Over the past week, Beijing has repeatedly lashed out at Washington for warning companies against using AI chips made by Huawei. The conflict over Huawei’s chips indicates that despite the positive words shared by US and Chinese negotiators previously, there are still huge differences between the two sides on a variety of subjects that may be difficult to overcome. Let’s wait and see whether they have the wisdom to resolve their differences.

意外的貿易休戰後，中美兩國再次陷入爭執 (1/2)

 Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

US and China are already feuding again after unexpected trade truce (1/2)

Nectar Gan, CNN

Tue, May 20, 2025 at 11:23 p.m. PDT·6 min read

Just days after the United States and China declared a temporary truce over tariffs, tempers are already flaring: this time over the future of Beijing’s most advanced homegrown semiconductors.

Over the past week, Beijing has repeatedly lashed out at Washington for warning companies against using AI chips made by national tech champion Huawei. It has even accused the Trump administration of “undermining” a consensus reached at recent trade talks in Geneva, where both sides agreed to temporarily roll back tariffs and use a 90-day window to hash out a broader deal.

The conflict over Huawei’s most advanced chips serves as a reality check that despite the positive words shared by US and Chinese negotiators last week, there are still sharp differences between the two sides on a variety of subjects that may be difficult to bridge.

On Wednesday, China’s Commerce Ministry fired its latest broadside, accusing the US of “abusing export controls to suppress and contain China” and engaging in what it called “typical acts of unilateral bullying and protectionism.”

China was responding to the Trump administration’s announcement last week rescinding a set of Biden-era curbs meant to keep AI chips out of the hands of foreign adversaries.

As part of that announcement, the US Commerce Department issued guidance on May 12 warning companies that “using Huawei Ascend chips anywhere in the world would violate US export controls.” The department has since changed its wording to remove the reference of “anywhere in the world” in an updated version of the statement.

The Ascend chips are Huawei’s most powerful AI processors, which are used to train AI models and aim to challenge Nvidia’s dominance in designing high-end chips. Huawei’s efforts are central to Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s plans to build up China’s own capacity to develop cutting-edge chips as it vies for AI supremacy with the US.

At a top political meeting last month, Xi called for “self-reliance” to develop AI in China, saying his country would leverage its “new whole national system” to target bottlenecks such as advanced chips.

CNN has reached out to Huawei for comment.

Beijing’s ire

On Monday, Beijing signaled the US Commerce Department’s wording change in the updated statement on Huawei wasn’t enough to end the feud. In a statement, China’s Commerce Ministry said that despite the “adjustment” in wording, the “discriminatory measures and market-distorting nature” of the guidance itself remained unchanged.

“China has engaged in negotiations and communications with the US at various levels through the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism, pointing out that the US actions seriously undermined the consensus reached during the high-level talks in Geneva,” the ministry said, urging the US to “correct its mistake.”

The ministry’s latest statement on Wednesday came with an extra warning from Beijing to global businesses, threatening legal action against anyone who helps what it calls a US attempt to “globally ban the use of advanced Chinese chips.”

“Any organization or individual that implements or assists in implementing these US measures may be in violation of China’s Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law and other relevant laws and regulations, and must bear corresponding legal responsibilities,” the statement said.

“China will closely monitor the implementation of the US measures and will take resolute steps to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests,” it added.

There has been no announcement of further trade talks between the US and China. But last Friday, US trade representative Jamieson Greer and Chinese trade envoy Li Chenggang met on the sidelines of a gathering of APEC trade ministers in South Korea, Reuters reported.

(to be continued)

意外的貿易休戰後，中美兩國再次陷入爭執 (1/2)

就在美國和中國宣布暫時停戰關稅幾天后，雙方的緊張關係已經升溫：這次，焦點是北京最先進的國產半導體的未來。

過去一週，北京多次猛烈抨擊華盛頓警告企業不要使用中國科技巨頭華為生產的人工智能晶片。它甚至指責特朗普政府「破壞」了最近在日內瓦舉行的貿易談判中達成的共識，當時雙方同意暫時降低關稅，並利用 90 天的時間達成更廣泛的協議。

圍繞華為最先進晶片的衝突表明，儘管上周美國和中國談判代表發表了積極言論，但雙方在各種問題上仍然存在尖銳分歧，可能難以克服。

週三，中國商務部發出最新一輪猛烈抨擊，指責美國 “濫用出口管制打壓遏制中國”，實施所謂的“典型的單邊欺凌和保護主義行徑”。

中國此舉是對特朗普政府上周宣布撤銷拜登時代一系列旨在防止人工智慧晶片落入外國對手手中的限制措施的回應。

亦作為該宣布的一部分，美國商務部於 5 月 12 日另發佈了指導意見，警告企業「在世界任何地方使用華為 Ascend 晶片都將違反美國的出口管制」。該部門後來修改了措辭，在聲明的更新版本中刪除了 “世界任何地方” 的說法。

Ascend 晶片是華為最強大的 AI處理器，用於訓練AI模型，旨在挑戰Nvidia在高階晶片設計領域的主導地位。華為的努力對於中國領導人習近平的計劃至關重要，該計劃旨在增強中國自主開發尖端晶片的能力，與美國爭奪人工智能霸主地位。

在上個月的一次高層政治會議上，習近平呼籲中國「自力更生」發展人工智慧，並表示中國將利用「新的舉國體制」來解決瓶頸問題例如先進晶片等。

CNN 已聯繫華為徵求意見。

北京的憤怒

週一，北京方面表示，美國商務部在有關華為的最新聲明中措辭的改變不足以結束這場爭端。中國商務部在聲明中表示，儘管措辭有所 “調整”，但指導意見本身的 “歧視性措施和扭曲市場的性質” 並沒有改變。

外交部表示： “中方透過中美經貿磋商機制與美方進行了各層級的磋商溝通，指出美方行為嚴重破壞了日內瓦高層會談達成的共識” ，敦促美方糾正錯誤。

商務部週三發布的最新聲明是北京向全球企業發出的額外警告，威脅對任何幫助美國「在全球範圍內禁止使用中國先進晶片」的人採取法律行動。

聲明中寫道： “任何組織或個人執行或協助執行美國這些措施，都可能違反中國《反外國制裁法》和其他相關法律法規，必須承擔相應的法律責任。”

聲明又稱道: “中方將密切關注美方措施的實施情況，採取堅決措施維護自身合法權益。”

目前，美國和中國尚未宣布進一步的貿易談判。但據路透社報道，上週五，美國貿易代表Jamieson Greer 和中國貿易特使 Li Chenggang 在韓國舉行的亞太經合組織貿易部長會議期間舉行了場外會晤。

（待續）

分析：印巴衝突為中國提供豐富的情報機會（2/2）

 Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

Analysis-India-Pakistan conflict offers rich intelligence opportunity for China (2/2)

Reuters - Greg Torode

Fri, May 9, 2025 at 2:50 a.m. PDT·5 min read

(continue)

MISSILE DEPLOYMENTS

Chinese military intelligence teams would be eager to garner information on any Indian use of air defences and launches of cruise and ballistic missiles - not just in terms of flight paths and accuracy but command and control information, analysts and diplomats say.

Any deployment of India's BrahMos supersonic cruise missile - a weapon it developed jointly with Russia - would be of particular interest, some analysts say, given they do not believe it has been used in combat.

China has also beefed up its intelligence gathering at sea. It has been increasingly active in the Indian Ocean in recent years, with China deploying space tracking ships as well as oceanographic research and fishing vessels on extended deployments, open source intelligence trackers say.

Regional diplomats say that while the Chinese navy has been relatively cautious about extensive warship deployments into the Indian Ocean, still lacking a broad network of bases, it actively seeks intelligence with these other vessels.

Over the last week, some trackers noted unusually large fleets of Chinese fishing vessels moving apparently in unison to within 120 nautical miles of Indian naval drills in the Arabian Sea as tensions rose with Pakistan.

Pentagon reports on China's military modernisation and analysts note that China's fishing fleets routinely perform a coordinated militia function that plays an important intelligence gathering role.

"These vessels may double up as listening posts, tracking development rhythms and response patterns, feeding early warning, naval intel to their sponsors," wrote open source tracker Damien Symon in an X post that highlighted the deployment of 224 Chinese vessels near Indian naval exercises on May 1.

Chinese officials do not usually acknowledge the existence of fishing militia or intelligence work carried out by other nominally-civilian vessels.

Given its deep and broad strategic relationship with Pakistan, Beijing can also be expected to fully exploit its network of envoys and military teams there for key nuggets.

"The presence of Chinese military advisers and other personnel in Pakistan is well-known given how Pakistan's Ministry of Defence has been importing some of its most advanced military hardware from China, so we can be certain the PLA would be able to access relevant data," said James Char, a Chinese security scholar at Singapore's S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.

 Translation

分析：印巴衝突為中國提供豐富的情報機會（2/2）

（繼續）

飛彈部署

 分析家和外交官表示，中國軍事情報團隊渴望收集有關印度使用防空系統和發射巡航飛彈和彈道道彈的資訊 - 不僅是飛行路徑和準確性，還包括指揮和控制資訊。

一些分析人士表示，印度與俄羅斯聯合開發的「布拉莫斯」超音速巡航飛彈的任何部署都將引起特別的關注，因為他們認為該飛彈尚未用於戰鬥。

中國也加強了海上情報收集。公開來源情報追蹤者稱，近年來，中國在印度洋日益活躍，不僅部署了太空追蹤船，還擴展部署了海洋研究船和漁船。

地區外交官表示，儘管中國海軍對於在印度洋大規模部署軍艦持相對謹慎的態度，但由於缺乏廣泛的基地網絡，中國海軍積極與這些其他船隻尋求情報。

過去一周，隨著中巴緊張局勢加劇，一些追蹤者註意到，數量異常龐大的中國漁船隊似乎同步移動到距離印度海軍在阿拉伯海演習的 120 海裡範圍內。

五角大廈報告了中國的軍事現代化，分析人士指出，中國的漁船隊經常執行有協調的民兵職能，並發揮重要的情報收集作用。

開源追蹤者 Damien Symon 在 X 貼文中寫道：「這些船隻可能兼作監聽站，追蹤發展節奏和反應模式，向其背後支持者提供預警和海軍情報」; 該貼文重點介紹了 5 月 1 日在印度海軍演習附近有 224 艘中國船隻部署的情況。

中國官員通常不承認海上民兵的存在，也不承認其他名義上是民用的船隻進行情報工作。

鑑於北京與巴基斯坦深厚而廣泛的戰略關係，預計北京將充分利用其在巴基斯坦的特使和軍事團隊網絡來獲取關鍵資訊。

新加坡 S. Rajaratnam 國際研究院中國安全學者 James Char 表示： “鑑於巴基斯坦國防部一直從中國進口一些最先進的軍事硬件，中國軍事顧問和其他人員在巴基斯坦的存在是眾所周知的，因此我們可以肯定解放軍能夠獲取相關數據。”

              So, the recent conflict between India and Pakistan over Kashmir will offer China potentially rich intelligence. It is believed that China's military modernization has reached a point where it has the ability to scrutinize Indian actions in real time on land, in the Indian Ocean as well as from space. Apparently, the current conflict may offer China a rare opportunity to see how effective is their military hardware.

分析：印巴衝突為中國提供豐富的情報機會（1/2）

 Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

Analysis-India-Pakistan conflict offers rich intelligence opportunity for China (1/2)

Reuters - Greg Torode

Fri, May 9, 2025 at 2:50 a.m. PDT·5 min read

HONG KONG (Reuters) - The conflict between India and Pakistan over Kashmir offers a potentially rich intelligence harvest for China in its own rivalry with India as it gleans data from its fighter jets and other weapons used in action by Pakistan.

Security analysts and diplomats say China's military modernisation has reached a point where it has the ability to deeply scrutinise Indian actions in real time from its border installations and Indian Ocean fleets as well as from space.

"From an intelligence perspective, this is a rare target of opportunity right on China's borders involving a key potential adversary," said Singapore-based security analyst Alexander Neill.

Two U.S. officials said a Chinese-made J-10 Pakistani jet fighter shot down at least two Indian military planes - one of them a French-made Rafale fighter. India has not acknowledged the loss of any of its planes while Pakistan's defence and foreign ministers have confirmed the use of J-10 aircraft but not commented on which missiles or other weapons were used.

The aerial clash is a rare opportunity for militaries around the world to study the performance of pilots, fighter jets and air-to-air missiles in active combat, and use that knowledge to prepare their own air forces for battle.

Competing regional giants and nuclear powers, India and China are widely seen as long-term strategic rivals, sharing a 3,800 (2,400 mile) Himalayan border that has been disputed since the 1950s and sparked a brief war in 1962.

The most recent standoff - that started in 2020 - thawed in October as the two sides struck a patrolling agreement.

Security analysts say both sides have taken steps to strengthen their military facilities and capabilities along the border, but it is also from above that China packs an intelligence gathering punch.

The London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) notes that China now fields 267 satellites - including 115 devoted to intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance and a further 81 that monitor military electronic and signals information. It is a network that dwarfs its regional rivals, including India, and is second only to the U.S..

"Both in terms of space and missile tracking capabilities, China is much better off now in terms of being able to monitor things as they happen," said Neill, who is an adjunct fellow at Hawaii's Pacific Forum think-tank.

China's defence ministry did not immediately respond to Reuters' questions about the deployment of its military satellites and other questions about its intelligence gathering.

Pakistan's military media wing and information minister did not immediately respond to a request for comment on any information sharing with China.

Pakistan has previously said it has an "all-weather strategic, cooperative partnership" with China.

India has not commented on the issue, but its top diplomat in Britain, High Commissioner Vikram Doraiswami, told Sky News on Thursday that China's relationship with Pakistan was not a concern for India.

 "China requires a relationship with all of its neighbours, that includes us," he said.

(to be continued)

Translation

分析：印巴衝突為中國提供豐富的情報機會（1/2）

香港（路透社）—印度和巴基斯坦在克什米爾問題上的衝突為中國在與印度的競爭中提供了潛在的豐富情報，因為中國可以從巴基斯坦在行動中使用的戰鬥機和其他武器中收集數據。

安全分析家和外交官表示，中國的軍事現代化已經達到了一定的程度，能夠從邊境設施、其印度洋的艦隊以及太空即時深入監視印度的行動。

以新加坡為基地的安全分析師 Alexander Neill 表示： “從情報角度來看，這是一個難得的機會，位於中國邊境，涉及一個關鍵的潛在對手。”

兩名美國官員稱，一架中國製造的殲-10巴基斯坦戰鬥機擊落至少兩架印度軍機，其中一架是法國製造的陣風戰鬥機。印度尚未承認損失任何飛機，而巴基斯坦國防部長和外交部長已確認使用了殲-10飛機，但沒有評論使用了哪種飛彈或其他武器。

這次空中衝突為世界各國軍隊提供了一個難得的機會，讓他們可以研究飛行員、戰鬥機和空對空飛彈在實戰中的表現，並利用這些知識為自己的空軍做好戰鬥準備。

印度和中國都是地區大國和擁核國家，被廣泛視為長期戰略對手，兩國共享 3,800 公尺（2,400 英里）長的喜馬拉雅邊界，自 1950 年代以來一直存在爭議，並於 1962 年引發了一場短暫的戰爭。

最近的一次對峙始於 2020 年，隨著雙方達成巡邏協議，對峙於 10 月得到緩解。

安全分析人士表示，雙方都已採取措施加強邊境的軍事設施和能力，但上述措施對中國的情報收集也有巨大作用或影響。

總部位於倫敦的國際戰略研究所（IISS）指出，中國目前擁有 267 顆衛星，其中 115 顆用於情報、監視和偵察，另外 81 顆則用於監視軍事電子和訊號訊息。這個網路規模遠遠超過包括印度在內的地區競爭對手，僅次於美國。

Neill 是夏威夷太平洋論壇 智庫的兼職研究員，他說： “無論是在太空還是導彈跟踪能力方面，中國現在都能夠更好地監控事件的發生。”

中國國防部沒有立即回應路透社關於其軍事衛星部署和其他情報收集的問題。

巴基斯坦軍事媒體部門和資訊部長沒有立即回應就與中國共享資訊發表評論的請求。

巴基斯坦先前曾表示，與中國建立了「全天候戰略合作夥伴關係」。

印度尚未對此事發表評論，但其駐英國高級外交官 Vikram Doraiswami 週四告訴天空新聞，中國與巴基斯坦的關係不是印度關心的問題。

他說： “中國需要與所有鄰國建立關係，這包括我們。”

（待續）

Bill Gates 宣布計劃捐出「幾乎所有」財產，並在 20 年內結束蓋茨基金會

 Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

Bill Gates announces plan to give ‘virtually all’ his money away and end the Gates Foundation in 20 years

Clare Duffy, CNN

Thu, May 8, 2025 at 7:07 a.m. PDT 3 min read

When Bill and Melinda French Gates created the Gates Foundation in 2000, they had planned for the organization to continue its work, using their remaining fortune, for several decades after they died. But now, the billionaire Microsoft founder says he doesn’t want to wait that long to give away most of his wealth.

Gates announced on Thursday that he now plans to distribute “virtually all” of his wealth — around $200 billion, he estimates — within the next 20 years, before shuttering the foundation on December 31, 2045.

The announcement comes as President Donald Trump’s administration is working to slash funding for health, foreign aid and other public assistance programs — the types of causes the Gates Foundation supports — raising concerns about stalled progress on research and other crucial projects.

Gates wants to accelerate the foundation’s work on global health and equity initiatives and hopes the move will set a model for other billionaires, he said in a blog post published Thursday morning. The pledge builds on Gates’ track record of promoting philanthropy. He, along with ex-wife French Gates and Warren Buffett, launched the Giving Pledge in 2010 to encourage wealthy individuals to donate most of their fortunes to charitable causes either during their lifetimes or in their wills. It now has more than 240 signatories.

“People will say a lot of things about me when I die, but I am determined that ‘he died rich’ will not be one of them,” Gates, who turns 70 later this year, wrote. “There are too many urgent problems to solve for me to hold onto resources that could be used to help people.”

The Gates Foundation, one of the world’s largest philanthropies, has already given away more than $100 billion since its founding, including to develop new vaccines, diagnostic tools and treatment delivery mechanisms to fight disease around the world. Gates has increased the pace of his giving in recent years, especially following the pandemic, but Thursday’s announcement marks a dramatic acceleration in the mobilization of his wealth. The Gates Foundation called it the “largest philanthropic commitment in modern history.”

Over the next 20 years, the Gates Foundation will focus on three main goals: ending preventable deaths of moms and babies, eradicating deadly infectious diseases and lifting hundreds of millions of people around the world out of poverty.

In its announcement, the foundation raised concerns about what it described as stagnant global health trends. And in an interview with the Financial Times published Thursday, Gates accused fellow billionaire Elon Musk of “killing the world’s poorest children” because of his work at the Department of Government Efficiency cutting US international aid programs.

However, in his blog post Thursday, Gates expressed optimism that advancements in artificial intelligence, in combination with his giving, could increase the rate of progress.

Gates’ current net worth is $108 billion; Bloomberg’s Billionaires Index ranks him as the fifth wealthiest person in the world. Now, he said his net worth will fall 99% by 2045. The $200 billion he expects to give away through the foundation over the next 20 years will come from its existing $77 billion endowment and his personal wealth, including any earnings from ongoing business investments such as TerraPower, the nuclear power company he founded,

French Gates exited the Gates Foundation last year following the couple’s high-profile divorce in 2021. She said in 2022 that she would not give away the bulk of her wealth through the Gates Foundation.

The announcement comes weeks after Microsoft, now worth more than $3 trillion, marked 50 years since it was founded by Gates. “It feels right that I celebrate the milestone by committing to give away the resources I earned through the company,” he wrote.

Translation

Bill Gates 宣布計劃捐出「幾乎所有」財產，並在 20 年內結束蓋茨基金會

當 Bill 及 Melinda French Gates 在2000年創建了蓋茨基金會 (Gates Foundation) 之時，曾計劃在他們去世後的幾十年裡，基金會會繼續利用餘下的財富去運作。但現在，這位微軟創辦人億萬富翁表示，他不想等那麼久才捐出他的大部分財富。

Gates (蓋茨) 週四宣布，他計劃在未來 20 年內分配「幾乎所有」財富 - 他估計約為 2,000 億美元 - 然後在 2045 年 12 月 31 日結束基金會。

在這項聲明發布之際，特朗普總統的政府正在努力削減醫療及外援助和其他公共援助項目的資金 - 即蓋茨基金會所支持的事業類型 - 這引發了人們對科究和其他關鍵項目進展停滯的擔憂。

蓋茨在周四上午發表的一篇部落格文章中表示，他希望加速基金會在全球健康和公平倡議方面的工作，並希望此舉能為其他億萬富翁樹立榜樣。這項承諾延續了蓋茨一直以來推動慈善事業的優良傳統。 2010 年，他與前妻 French Gates 聯同 Warren Buffett (巴菲特)共同發起了「捐贈誓言」活動，鼓勵富人在其有生之年或遺囑中將大部分財富捐獻給慈善事業。目前已有 240 多人簽署這誓言。

今年晚些時候將迎來 70 歲生日的蓋茨寫道： “當我去世時，人們會談論我很多事情，但我決心不會說 ‘他死時很富有’ ”; “有太多緊急問題需要解決，讓我穩控着能用來幫助別人的資源。”

蓋茨基金會是世界上最大的慈善機構之一，自成立以來已經捐贈了超過 1,000 億美元，包括用於開發新的疫苗、診斷工具和治療機制，以對抗世界各地的疾病。近年來，尤其是在疫情之後，蓋茨的捐贈步伐加快了，但周四的聲明標誌著他的財富動用速度急劇加快。蓋茲基金會稱其為「現代史上最大的慈善承諾」。

未來20年，蓋茨基金會將專注於三大目標：消除產婦和嬰兒可預防的死亡、消滅致命傳染病以及幫助全球數億人擺脫貧困。

該基金會在聲明中對其所描述的全球健康趨勢停滯不前表示擔憂。在週四發表的蓋茨接受英國《金融時報》採訪一文中，他指責億萬富翁馬斯克 “殺害了世界上最貧困的兒童” ， 因為他在政府效率部削減了美國的國際援助項目。

然而，蓋茨在其週四的部落格文章中表示出樂觀，認為人工智慧的邁進加上他的捐贈可以加快進步的速度。

蓋茨目前的淨資產為 1,080 億美元；彭博億萬富翁指數將他列為全球第五大富豪。現在，他說他的淨資產到 2045 年將下降 99%。他預計在未來 20 年透過基金會捐贈的 2,000 億美元, 是將會來自基金會現有的 770 億美元捐贈基金和他的個人財富，包括現正在進行的商業投資收益，例如他創立的核電公司 TerraPower，

2021 年，蓋茨夫婦高調離婚。去年，French Gates 退出了蓋茨基金會。 2022 年，她表示不會透過蓋茲基金會捐出大部分財富。

在宣佈這發表前幾週，正值蓋茲所創立微軟的 50 週年，微軟目前的市值已超過 3 兆美元。他寫道： “我認為透過捐出我在公司賺取的資源來慶祝這個里程碑是正確的。”

              So, Bill Gates has announced that he plans to distribute “virtually all” of his wealth within the next 20 years, before shuttering the foundation on December 31, 2045. Over the next 20 years, the Gates Foundation will focus on three main goals: ending preventable deaths of moms and babies, eradicating deadly infectious diseases and lifting hundreds of millions of people around the world out of poverty. It is nice to hear about this donation project. Apparently, globally many people, rich or poor will benefit from his donations. Thank you, Mr. Bill Gate.

經過多年艱苦談判，英國和印度簽署了一項「具有里程碑意義」的貿易協定

 Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

UK and India sign a 'landmark' trade agreement after years of tough negotiations

Jill Lawless And Rajesh Roy

Tue, May 6, 2025 at 7:01 a.m. PDT 3 min read

LONDON (AP) — Britain and India announced Tuesday that they have agreed on a long-stalled free trade agreement that will slash tariffs on Scotch whisky and scores of other products. The deal comes more than three years after negotiations started — and stalled — under a previous British government.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said on X that the deal was “ambitious and mutually beneficial.” British Prime Minister Keir Starmer called it a “landmark” that was “fantastic news for British business, British workers and British shoppers.”

The U.K. government said the deal will reduce Indian import taxes on whisky, cosmetics, medical goods, car and airplane parts and other goods from the U.K. Whisky and gin tariffs will be halved from 150% to 75% before falling to 40% by year 10 of the deal. Automotive tariffs will fall from over 100% to 10% under a quota.

India's Trade Ministry said 99% of Indian exports would face no import duty under the deal.

“This brings us closer to our goal of becoming a global economic powerhouse. It protects our core interests while opening doors to India’s greater participation in global value chains,” Trade Minister Piyush Goyal said.

Modi’s office said the agreement covered trade in both goods and services, and would “unlock new potential for the two nations to jointly develop products and services for global markets.”

Britain said the deal is expected to increase bilateral trade by 25.5 billion pounds ($34 billion) a year “in the long run.”

Mark Kent, chief executive of the Scotch Whisky Association, said the deal would be “transformational” for the industry. India is one of the world’s largest whisky markets, and Kent said the agreement had “the potential to increase Scotch whisky exports to India by 1 billion pounds over the next five years.”

The deal comes as countries around the world scramble to strike trade deals to make up for tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump on America's trading partners.

Rain Newton-Smith, chief executive of employers' organization the Confederation of British Industry, said the U.K.’s trade deal with India was a “beacon of hope amidst the specter of protectionism."

U.K.-India trade negotiations began long before Trump's re-election. Formal talks began in 2022 on a free trade agreement that then-Prime Minister Boris Johnson hailed as a key goal after Britain’s departure from the European Union in 2020. Johnson famously promised to have a deal done by Diwali in October of that year.

The two countries held 13 rounds of negotiations without a breakthrough before talks were suspended while both nations held 2024 general elections.

Modi was re-elected, and Britain replaced the Conservative government with one led by Starmer’s Labour Party.

The two leaders spoke by phone on Tuesday, and Modi said he had invited Starmer to visit India soon. Starmer's office said he would go there “at the earliest opportunity.”

Translation

經過多年艱苦談判，英國和印度簽署了一項「具有里程碑意義」的貿易協定

倫敦（美聯社）— 英國和印度週二宣布，雙方已就一項長期擱置的自由貿易協定達成一致，該協定將削減蘇格蘭威士忌和其他數十種產品的關稅。該協議的達成距離上屆英國政府啟動談判（但談判陷入停滯）已過去了三年多。

印度總理莫迪在 X 上表示，該協議「雄心勃勃且互惠互利」。英國首相施紀賢稱其為 “里程碑” ， “對英國企業、英國工人和英國購物者來說是個好消息” 。

英國政府表示，該協議將降低印度對威士忌、化妝品、醫療產品、汽車和飛機零件以及其他英國商品的進口稅。威士忌和氈酒的關稅將從 150% 減半至 75%，並在協議執行的第 10 年降至 40%。在配額之內，汽車關稅將從100%以上降至10%。

印度貿易部表示，根據該協議，99%的印度出口產品將免徵進口關稅。

貿易部長 Piyush Goyal表示： “這讓我們更接近成為全球經濟強國的目標。這不僅保護了我們的核心利益，也為印度更大程度地參與全球價值鏈打開了大門。”

莫迪辦公室表示，該協議涵蓋貨物和服務貿易，並將「為兩國共同開發面向全球市場的產品和服務釋放新的潛力」。

英國表示，預計該協議「從長遠來看」將使雙邊貿易額每年增加 255 億英鎊（340 億美元）。

蘇格蘭威士忌協會執行長 Mark Kent 表示，這筆交易將為該行業帶來「變革」。印度是世界上最大的威士忌市場之一，Kent 表示，該協議「有可能在未來五年內將蘇格蘭威士忌對印度的出口增加 10 億英鎊」。

在該協議達成之際，世界各國正爭取互相達成貿易協議，以彌補特朗普總統對美國貿易夥伴徵收的關稅。

作為雇主組織的英國工業聯合會 執行長 Rain Newton-Smith 表示，英國與印度的貿易協定是「保護主義陰影下的希望燈塔」。

英印貿易談判早在特朗普連任前就已開始。雙方於 2022 年開始就一項自由貿易協定進行正式談判，時任首相 Boris Johnson 稱這是英國 2020 年脫歐後的一個重要目標。Johnson 曾承諾在同年的 10 月排燈節前達成協議。

兩國舉行了13輪談判，但都沒有突破，隨後談判暫停，因為兩國都將在2024年舉行大選。

莫迪再次當選，英國以施紀賢領導的工黨政府取代了保守黨政府。

兩位領導人週二通了電話，莫迪表示他已邀請施紀賢近期訪問印度。施紀賢的辦公室表示，他將「盡快」前往那裡。

                   So, Britain and India announce that they have reached a long-stalled free trade agreement that will reduce tariffs on Scotch whisky and some other products. The deal comes more than three years of negotiations. Apparently, countries around the world are more eager to try to enter trade deals in response to the tariffs war started by the US.

Note:

1. The global value chain refers to all the links in the process of producing and selling goods or services. It is an international economic activity that usually involves multiple countries and regions. These chains enable companies to divide labor and cooperate in the global market, improving efficiency and competitiveness. (ChatGPT)

2. Diwali (排燈節), also known as Deepavali, is a five-day Hindu festival celebrated across India and by communities worldwide. Known as the "Festival of Lights," it symbolizes the victory of light over darkness and good over evil. Celebrations include lighting oil lamps (diyas), decorating homes with rangoli, exchanging sweets, and setting off fireworks. People wear new clothes and perform prayers to Goddess Lakshmi for prosperity. Diwali is also significant for Jains, Sikhs, and some Buddhists, each observing it for different historical reasons. (ChapGPT)

基於重大貿易突破, 中美同意大幅降低關稅 (2/2)

 Recently CNN News on-line reported the following:

US and China agree to drastically roll back tariffs in major trade breakthrough (2/2)

By Nectar Gan, Auzinea Bacon and Juliana Liu, CNN

Updated 5:54 AM EDT, Mon May 12, 2025

CNN

 —

(continue)

Dan Ives, a managing director at Wedbush Securities in New York, said the agreement to suspend most tariffs on each other’s goods was a “best case scenario” from the weekend talks.

“This is clearly just the start of a broader and more comprehensive negotiations, and we would expect both these tariff numbers to move down markedly over the coming months as deal talks progress,” he wrote in a research note.

Continuing discussions

The two sides also agreed to establish “a mechanism to continue discussions about economic and trade relations,” led by Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, according to the joint statement.

“These discussions may be conducted alternately in China and the United States, or a third country upon agreement of the Parties. As required, the two sides may conduct working-level consultations on relevant economic and trade issues,” it added.

Speaking at a Monday press conference in Geneva, Bessent said: “The consensus from both delegations is neither side wants to be decoupled, and what have occurred with these very high tariffs … was an equivalent of an embargo, and neither side wants that. We do want trade. We want more balance in trade. And I think both sides are committed to achieving that.”

A spokesperson for China’s Commerce Ministry called the joint statement “an important step by both sides to resolve differences through equal-footing dialogue and consultation, laying the groundwork and creating conditions for further bridging gaps and deepening cooperation.”

Beijing’s upbeat and positive tone stands in stark contrast to its previous statements about the trade conflict with the US. For weeks, Chinese officials had projected a defiant position, demanding the US remove all tariffs on China before agreeing to come to the negotiation table.

The substantial, if temporary, breakthrough was unexpected. Just last week, Bessent sought to manage expectations by suggesting that his goal for the talks was “de-escalation” of tension and not “a big trade deal,” as the US and China had been at a virtual stalemate since Trump imposed his tariff policy.

Translation

基於重大貿易突破, 中美同意大幅降低關稅 (2/2)

（繼續）

紐約 Wedbush 證券公司董事總經理 Dan Ives 表示，雙方同意暫停對彼此大部分商品徵收關稅，這是周末談判的「最佳結果」。

他在一份研究報告中寫道： “這顯然只是更廣泛、更全面談判的開始，隨著協議談判的進展，我們預計未來幾個月這兩項關稅數字都將大幅下降。”

 

繼續討論

聯合聲明稱，雙方還同意建立 “繼續討論經貿關係的機制” ，由中國國務院副總理何立峰與美國的財政部長貝森特, 以及美國貿易代表格里爾牽頭。

聲明還補充說： “這些討論可在中國和美國輪流進行，或經雙方同意在第三國進行。雙方可根據需要就相關經貿問題進行工作級別磋商。”

貝森特週一在日內瓦舉行的新聞發布會上表示： “雙方代表團的共識是，雙方都不希望脫鉤，而這些高額關稅……相當於貿易禁運，雙方都不希望出現這種情況。我們確實希望貿易。我們希望貿易更加平衡。我認為雙方都致力於實現這一目標。”

中國商務部發言人稱，聯合聲明「是雙方透過平等對話協商解決分歧的重要舉措，為進一步彌合分歧、深化合作奠定了基礎，創造了條件」。

北京的樂觀和積極基調與先前與美國貿易衝突的聲明形成鮮明對比。數週以來，中國官員一直表現出強硬立場，要求美國取消對中國徵收的所有關稅，然後才同意進行談判。

儘管是暫時的，但這一實質突破是出乎意料的。就在上週，有鑑於自從特朗普實施關稅政策以來，美國和中國幾乎陷於完全僵局,貝森特暗示判目標是 “緩和”緊張局勢，而不是 “達成一項重大貿易協議”, 他試圖管控期望。

So, the US and China has agreed to drastically reduce tariffs on each other’s goods for an initial 90-day period. Both sides say that they recognize the importance of a sustainable, long-term, and mutually beneficial economic and trade relationship. Apparently, the initial goal of the US for the talks is the “de-escalation” of tension. Chances are that this co-operative atmosphere may change as further negotiations continue.

基於重大貿易突破, 中美同意大幅降低關稅 (1/2)

 Recently CNN News on-line reported the following:

US and China agree to drastically roll back tariffs in major trade breakthrough (1/2)

By Nectar Gan, Auzinea Bacon and Juliana Liu, CNN

Updated 5:54 AM EDT, Mon May 12, 2025

CNN

 —

The United States and China agreed Monday to drastically roll back tariffs on each other’s goods for an initial 90-day period, in a surprise breakthrough that has de-escalated a punishing trade war and buoyed global markets.

The announcement, which was made in a joint statement, comes after a weekend of marathon trade negotiations in Geneva, Switzerland by officials from the world’s two largest economies, during which both sides touted “substantial progress.”

Both sides recognize “the importance of a sustainable, long-term, and mutually beneficial economic and trade relationship,” they said in the statement.

Global investors are cheering a thaw in the trade war sparked by US President Donald Trump’s massive tariffs, which have roiled financial markets, disrupted supply chains and stoked recession fears.

Dow futures jumped more than 2%, while S&P 500 futures rose nearly 3%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite futures went up more than 3.5% during Asian afternoon trading. Asian markets were higher too, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index ending about 3% higher. The US dollar gained ground against other major currencies, while the price of gold, which tends to drop when investors are feeling more secure, fell.

The mutual tariff revisions will be imposed by May 14. Trump’s 20% fentanyl-related levies on China, imposed in February and March, will stay. However, each side has agreed to lower “reciprocal” tariffs on the other by 115 percentage points for 90 days.

That effectively means the US will temporarily lower its overall tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, while China will cut its levies on American imports from 125% to 10%, according to the joint statement.

Under the agreement, China will also suspend or cancel its non-tariff countermeasures imposed on the US since April 2. As part of its retaliatory measures against the US, Beijing had imposed export restrictions on some rare-earth minerals; placed dozens of American firms on its “unreliable entity list” and “export control list;” and launched an anti-monopoly probe into US chemical giant DuPont.

The trade war has already affected the US and Chinese economies. America’s gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the US economy, showed its first quarterly contraction since early 2022, as importers raced to bring in goods before punishing tariff rates kicked in.

As for China, its exports to the US fell sharply last month, impacting the country’s enormous manufacturing industry. Chinese factory activity contracted at its fastest pace in 16 months in April, adding urgency to Beijing’s efforts to roll out fresh economic stimulus.

(to be continued)

Translation

基於重大貿易突破 , 中美同意大幅降低關稅 (1/2)

CNN

—

美國和中國週一同意在首先為期的 90 天內大幅降低彼此商品的關稅，這一意外突破緩和了激烈的貿易戰並提振了全球市場。

這項聲明是在世界兩大經濟體官員於週末在瑞士日內瓦舉行的馬拉松式貿易談判之後發佈的，雙方都宣稱談判取得了「實質進展」。

聲明中表示，雙方認識到「可持續、長期、互利的經貿關係的重要性」。

全球投資者對美國總統特朗普徵收高額關稅引發的貿易戰緩和感到高興，這場貿易戰擾亂了金融市場、破壞了供應鏈，並引發了人們對經濟衰退的擔憂。

在亞洲午後交易中，道瓊期貨上漲超過 2%，標普 500 期貨上漲近 3%，科技股佔比較高的納斯達克指數期貨上漲超過 3.5%。亞洲股市也走高，香港恆生指數收盤上漲約 3%。美元兌其他主要貨幣上漲，依從當投資者感到更安全時, 黃金價格會向下的慣性，金價下跌了。

雙方將於5月14日前實施相互關稅調整。特朗普於2月和3月對中國徵收的20%芬太尼相關關稅將維持不變。不過，雙方同意將對方的「對等」關稅降低115個百分點 90天。

根據聯合聲明，這實際上意味著美國將暫時將對中國商品的總關稅從 145% 降至 30%，而中國將把對美國進口商品的關稅從 125% 降至 10%。

根據協議，中國也將暫停或取消自4月2日起對美國實施的非關稅反制措施。作為對美報復措施的一部分，北京已對部分稀土礦實施出口限制；將數十家美國公司列入「不可靠實體名單」和「出口管制名單」；並對美國化工巨頭杜邦公司展開反壟斷調查。

貿易戰已經影響美國和中國的經濟。美國國內生產毛額（衡量美國經濟的最廣泛指標）出現了自 2022 年初以來的首次季度萎縮，原因是進口商競相在懲罰性關稅生效前進口商品。

至於中國，上個月對美國的出口大幅下降，影響了該國龐大的製造業。 4月份，中國製造業活動萎縮速度達到16個月以來的最快水平，增加了北京推出新一輪刺激經濟措施的迫切性。

（待續）