大量廉價中國商品湧入世界並加劇貿易緊張 (2/2)

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

A glut of cheap Chinese goods is flooding the world and stoking trade tensions (2/2)

Analysis by Hanna Ziady and Laura He, CNN

Thu, March 28, 2024 at 4:42 a.m. PDT

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Earlier this month, Premier Li Qiang, Xi’s number two, told China’s parliament that the government would focus on exporting more of the country’s “new trio” of products, namely EVs, lithium batteries and solar panels.

Eskelund of the European Union Chamber of Commerce says the organization is seeing “overcapacity across the board” in China, whether in the production of chemicals, metals or EVs.

“We haven’t seen all that capacity coming online just yet. This is something that’s going to hit markets over the next few years,” he added.

Trade tensions mount

Beijing is aware of China’s overcapacity problem, acknowledging it as an issue for the first time in almost a decade at an annual meeting of senior officials in December.

But on the eve of this week’s China Development Forum, several Chinese state-owned media outlets published editorials challenging the notion that China’s supply glut poses a threat to other economies.

“What China exports is advanced production capacity that meets the needs of foreign customers,” Xinhua News Agency wrote.

Washington and Brussels have a different view, however. US President Joe Biden recently pledged to investigate whether imports of Chinese vehicles pose a national security threat.

“A dynamic auto industry is vital to the US economy,” he said in a statement last month. “China is determined to dominate the future of the auto market, including by using unfair practices. China’s policies could flood our market with its vehicles, posing risks to our national security.”

The EU, meanwhile, is looking into China’s state support for EV makers, which it suspects may be enabling these firms to keep prices super-low, creating unfair competition with European rivals.

European officials are also considering whether existing measures to safeguard the EU steel industry should be extended or adjusted, as well as investigating allegations of biodiesel dumping by China following a complaint by European producers. Biodiesel is a renewable alternative to fossil fuels used in the EU’s transport sector.

The European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, said in December that it might impose tariffs on Chinese biodiesel imports if dumping was confirmed.

China, for its part, is fighting back. It said this week that it had filed a complaint with the WTO to contest “discriminatory subsidy policies” for EVs under Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act. Earlier this year, Beijing opened an anti-dumping investigation into brandy imported from the EU.

If there is a silver lining to China’s influence in global trade, it’s that it should help keep goods prices and overall inflation in check in advanced economies this year, according to Jennifer McKeown, chief global economist at Capital Economics.

“But perhaps more importantly, persistent oversupply and low prices of Chinese goods will add to geopolitical tensions and keep the threat of tariffs and counter-tariffs alive,” she wrote in a recent note. And these could ultimately raise inflation in the years ahead, she said.

 - Shawn Deng contributed reporting.

Translation

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本月早些時候，習近平的二把手、總理李強向中國人大表示，政府將重點出口更多中國“新三样”產品，即電動車、鋰電池和太陽能板。

歐盟商會的 Eskelund 表示，該組織發現中國 “全面產能過剩” ，無論是化學品、金屬還是電動車的生產。

他補充道: 「我們仍未看到那些產能已被用盡。 它是一些將在未來幾年內進入市場的東西」。

貿易緊張局勢加劇

北京已經意識到它的產能過剩問題，並在去年 12 月舉行的高級官員年度會議上, 近十年來首次承認這一問題。

但在本週的中國發展高層論壇 前夕，多家中國國有媒體發表社論，質疑中國供應過剩對其他經濟體構成威脅的觀點。

新華社寫道: 「中國出口的是滿足外國客戶需求的先進產能」。

然而，華盛頓和布魯塞爾卻有不同的看法。 美國總統拜登最近承諾調查中國進口車是否構成國家安全威脅。

他在上個月的聲明中表示: 「擁有一個充滿活力的汽車產業對美國經濟至關重要」。 「中國決心主導汽車市場的未來，包括採取不公平的做法。 中國的政策可能會使它的汽車充斥我們的市場，對我們的國家安全構成風險」。

同時，歐盟正在調查中國對電動車製造商的國家支持，歐盟懷疑這可能使這些公司能夠保持超低價格，從而與歐洲競爭對手形成不公平競爭。

歐洲官員也正在考慮是否應該延長或調整現有的保護歐盟鋼鐵工業的措施，並在歐洲生產商提出投訴後調查中國生物柴油傾銷的指控。 生物柴油是歐盟在運輸方面使用的化石燃料的可再生替代品。

歐盟執行機構歐盟委員會去年12月表示，如果傾銷被證實，可能對中國生物柴油進口徵收關稅。

就中國而言，它正在反擊。 它本週表示，已向世貿組織提出申訴，質疑拜登《通膨削減法案》下針對電動車的「歧視性補貼政策」。 今年早些時候，北京對從歐盟進口的白蘭地啟動了反傾銷調查。

Capital Economics 首席全球經濟學家 Jennifer McKeown 表示，如果說中國在全球貿易中的影響力還有一線希望的話，那就是它應該幫助控制發達經濟體今年的商品價格和整體通膨。

她在最近的一份報告中寫道： 「但也許更重要的是，中國商品持續供過於求和低價, 將加劇地緣政治緊張局勢，並使關稅和反關稅威脅持續存在」。她說，這些最終可能會加劇未來幾年的通膨。

              So, China’s factories are producing more steel, cars and solar panels than its slowing economy can use, forcing a flood of cheap exports into foreign markets. These goods create tensions with its major trading partners, including the United States and the European Union. China’s global trade surplus is now approaching $1 trillion. Probably the persistent oversupply of low-price Chinese goods will add to geopolitical tensions and keep the threat of tariffs and counter-tariffs alive, thus creating inflation globally.

Note:

1. China Development Forum (中國發展高層論壇) is a high level and annual international forum initiated in 2000 by China Development Research Foundation of the Republic of China's State Council. Initially it was conceived by former Premier Zhu Rongji. The forum aims to strengthen communication at high level between China and the world. (Wikipedia)