Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:
A glut of cheap Chinese goods is flooding the world and
stoking trade tensions (1/2)
Analysis by Hanna Ziady and Laura He, CNN
Thu, March 28, 2024 at 4:42 a.m. PDT
China’s factories are churning out more steel, cars and
solar panels than its slowing economy can use, forcing a flood of cheap exports
into foreign markets.
The oversupply of Chinese goods in key industries is stoking tensions between the world’s biggest manufacturer and its major trading partners, including the United States and the European Union. Its global trade surplus in goods has soared and is now approaching $1 trillion.
The United States and the EU are fretting over potential “dumping” by China — that is, exporting goods at artificially low prices — with electric vehicles among the products caught in the crosshairs.
“Europe cannot just accept that strategically viable industries constituting the European industrial base are being priced out of the market,” Jens Eskelund, president of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, told reporters earlier this month.
But China needs to increase exports as a key measure to revive its economy, which is grappling with a protracted property slump, weak household spending and a shrinking population among other problems.
Beijing is now focusing on higher-value exports, after investing billions into advanced manufacturing. But the move is badly timed, coming amid slower economic growth globally and a shift by Western consumers from pandemic-era spending on goods to travel and leisure.
It is also coming up against a push by Europe and the United States to reduce their dependence on China and boost local manufacturing, creating jobs — including through the Net-Zero Industry Act and the Inflation Reduction Act respectively.
“It is hard for me to imagine that Europe would just sit by
and quietly witness (its own) accelerated de-industrialization… because of the
externalization of low domestic demand in China,” Eskelund said.
According to China’s National Bureau of Statistics, prices of Chinese exports are at their lowest level since 2009, when the West was reeling from the global financial crisis.
And China’s surplus in goods trade has more than doubled since the pandemic, according to Brad W. Setser, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. In 2019, the country exported an estimated $400 billion more in goods than it imported — a surplus that ballooned to $900 billion last year.
From clothes to cars
China’s exports of low-priced goods got a boost after it
joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001. Its economy and heft as a
manufacturer have also grown substantially since then.
Having conquered the production of clothing and consumer electronics, China has come to dominate electric vehicles, solar panels and wind turbines — industries viewed as strategically important in Europe and the United States as they seek to green their economies and reduce planet-heating pollution.
Europe’s solar panel producers have been all but wiped out by Chinese competition, and the same fate threatens its wind industry.
“European companies could fall behind (Chinese manufacturer) Goldwind, which already offers its turbines well below the price of the established (European) manufacturers,” Markus W. Voigt, CEO of the Aream Group, an asset manager specializing in renewable energy, said in a statement this month.
In the last three months of 2023, China’s BYD overtook Tesla (TSLA) as the top seller of EVs worldwide, capping an extraordinary rise for the Warren Buffett-backed carmaker. Compared with Tesla, BYD’s cars are more affordable, which has helped it attract a wider range of buyers. Its entry-level model sells in China for the equivalent of just under $10,000. The cheapest Tesla car, a Model 3, costs almost $39,000.
Alongside “surging EV exports,” China manufactures 80% of the world’s solar panels and makes more wind turbines than any other country, Setser wrote in a recent note. “Chinese policy continues to emphasize upgrading China’s capacity in advanced manufacturing as a major driver of future growth,” he added.
(to be continued)
Translation
中國工廠生產的鋼鐵、汽車和太陽能板超出了其在放緩中的經濟需求，迫使大量廉價產品湧入國外市場。
中國商品在關鍵產業的供應過剩, 正在加劇全球最大製造商與其主要貿易夥伴之間的緊張關係,包括美國和歐盟。 中國全球貨物貿易順差飆升，目前已接近1兆美元。
美國和歐盟對中國潛在的「傾銷」（即以人為壓低的價格出口商品）感到擔憂，其中電動車就是目標產品之一。
中國歐盟商會會長 Jens Eskelund 本月稍早對記者表示：「歐洲不能呆着地接受其構成戰略上可行的歐洲工業基礎, 因高價格而被擠出市場」。
但中國需要增加出口作為重振經濟的關鍵措施，目前中國正面臨房地產業長期低迷、家庭支出疲軟和人口萎縮等問題。
北京在向先進製造業投資數十億美元後，現在將重點放在高價值的出口上。 但這項措施的時機並不恰當，因為全球經濟成長放緩，西方消費者從疫情時期的商品消費轉向於旅行和休閒。
中國也面臨歐洲和美國推動減少對它的依賴、他們努力促進自己的製造業、去創造就業的機會- 包括分別通過淨零工業法案和通膨削減法案。
Eskelund 說: 「我很難想像，由於中國國內需求低迷的外向化，歐洲會袖手旁觀，靜靜地見證（其自身的）去工業化的加速」。
根據中國國家統計局的數據，中國出口價格處於 2009年以來的最低水平，當時西方正遭受全球金融危機的影響。
美國外交關係委員會高級研究員 Brad W. Setser 表示，自疫情爆發以來，中國的貨物貿易順差增加了一倍以上。 2019年，該國的商品出口額估計比進口額多了4,000億美元 - 去年順差激增至9,000億美元。
從衣服到汽車
2001年加入世界貿易組織（WTO）後，中國的低價商品出口得到提振，其經濟和作為製造商的影響力也大幅成長。
在征服了服裝和消費性電子產品的生產之後，中國已開始主導電動車、太陽能電池板和風力渦輪機 - 這些產業在歐洲和美國正在尋求綠色經濟和減少地球暖化問題之際, 被視為具有戰略重要性。
歐洲的太陽能板生產商幾乎被中國的競爭所淘汰，同樣的命運也威脅其風能產業。
專注於再生能源的資產管理公司 Aream Group 首席執行官 Markus W. Voigt 在本月的聲明中表示: 「歐洲公司可能會落後於（中國製造商）金風科技，金風科技提供的渦輪機價格已經遠低於老牌（歐洲）製造商的價格」。
在2023 年最後三個月，中國比亞迪 (BYD)超越特斯拉 (TSLA)，成為全球電動車銷量最高的公司，為這家巴菲特支持的汽車製造商的非凡冒昇畫上句號。 與特斯拉相比，比亞迪的汽車價格更便宜，這有助於它吸引更廣泛的買家。 其入門級型號在中國的售價略低於 10,000 美元。 最便宜的特斯拉汽車 Model 3 售價近 39,000 美元。
Setser 在最近的一份報告中寫道，除了「電動車出口激增」之外，中國還生產了全球 80% 的太陽能電池板，並生產了比其他國家更多的風力渦輪機。 他補充道: 「中國政策繼續強調提升中國先進製造能力，將其作為未來成長的主要驅動力」。
（待續）
Note:
1. First announced under the Commission's Green Deal
Industrial Plan in early 2023, the Net Zero Industry Act (淨零工業法案) is
part of the EU's direct response to the US Inflation Reduction Act. It was
designed to help the EU reach its 2030 climate targets while boosting the
production of key green technologies within the EU. (https://www.wwf.eu/?12836866/nzia-trilogue-pr#)
2. According to the US Department of the Treasury, on August
16, 2022, President Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) (通膨削減法案) into
law, marking one of the largest investments in the American economy, energy
security, and climate that Congress has made in the nation’s history. Across
the economy, the IRA is creating opportunities to build projects, hire workers,
and manufacture equipment needed to strengthen domestic supply chains, lower
household energy costs while reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and pay good
wages for those efforts. (https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/inflation-reduction-act#:~:text=)
3. Goldwind Science & Technology Co., Ltd.,
commonly known as Goldwind (金風科技), is a Chinese multinational wind
turbine manufacturer headquartered in Beijing, China. Goldwind was a
state-owned enterprise before 2007, with largest shareholders including Hexie
Health Insurance, China Three Gorges Renewables Group, and the National Social
Security Fund, state-controlled corporations holding almost 40% shares. Its
founder, Wu Gang, is a Communist Party member and had a seat in the 12th
National People's Congress. (Wikipedia)
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