Why is the American economy strong? To ask an expert: Will GDP positive for the fifth consecutive quarter (2/2)

Recently NHK News on-line reported the following:

アメリカ経済なぜ堅調？ 専門家に聞く GDPは5期連続プラスか (2/2)

2023年10月25日 6時42分

(continue)

Q2. 好調は今後も続く？

第4四半期（10月から12月）には景気は減速し、GDPの伸び率は前期比プラス1.5％になると予測している。逆風として注意すべきは、UAW＝全米自動車労働組合のストライキが長期化していることや、すでにかなり高水準の企業投資がこの水準を維持するとは考えにくいことが挙げられる。

Q3. 今後の金利引き上げは？

FRBは12月にもう1回利上げを行うと見ている。ただ、パウエル議長は10月19日の講演で、追加の利上げには「経済成長のさらなる加速やインフレ率の大幅な上昇リスクなどの追加的なデータが必要になる」と述べていて、非常に微妙な判断になると思う。

Q4. 利下げの時期は？

マーケットにとっては、金利の到達点よりも利下げの時期が最も重要になっている。私たちは「FRBは2024年6月に利下げを開始する」と見ている。これは、インフレ率が鈍化していくことに合わせた利下げ（＝中立金利の引き下げ）で、景気減速を受けた利下げにはならないだろう。

FRBが利下げに踏み切る際には、インフレが再燃するリスク、つまり、これまでの努力が水の泡になるリスクを強く意識するため、慎重に利下げのペースを判断していくとみている。

Q5. 長いスパンでみたアメリカ経済の懸念やリスクは？

アメリカ経済で興味深いのは、消費者と企業の収支バランスは、いずれもかなり健全なことだ。

一方、赤字が膨らんでいる政府の財政は問題となっている。これには、様々な要因があるが、社会保障を受け取る資格のある高齢者が増え続けていること、金利上昇による国債の利払い増加など構造的な問題を抱えている。

この傾向は来年も変わらない。経済状況にかかわらず、これほど大きな赤字を垂れ流していることは懸念材料で、景気後退に陥っても、財政支出を行う余力はあまりないということを示している。

Translation

(continue)

Q2. Would the good performance continue?

The economy was expected to slow down in the fourth quarter (October to December), with GDP growth expected to be 1.5% higher than the previous quarter. Headwinds that should be noted include the prolonged strike by the UAW (United Auto Workers Union) and the fact that it was unlikely that corporate investment, which was already at a fairly high level, could be maintained.

Q3. What about future interest rate hikes?

The Fed was expected to raise rates one more time in December. However, in his speech on October 19 Chairman Powell stated that any further interest rate hikes would require "additional data, including the risk of further acceleration of economic growth and the risk of a significant rise in the inflation rate." I thought it could be a delicate decision.

Q4. When would the time for interest rate cut?

For the market, the timing of the rate cut would be more important than the reaching point of interest rates. Our view was that the Fed could begin lowering interest rates in June 2024. The lowering of interest rates (= lowering the neutral interest rate) in line with the slowing of the inflation rate would not be a rate cut in response to an economic slowdown.

When the Federal Reserve decided to cut interest rates, it would be very conscious about the risk of a resurgence of inflation, or in other words, the risk that its efforts to date could be wasted, so we expected that the pace of rate cuts would be judged carefully.

Q5. What were your concerns and risks regarding the U.S. economy over the long term?

What was interesting about the American economy was that its balance in income and expenditure between consumers and businesses, respectively they were quite healthy.

On the other hand, the government's finances were becoming a problem due to the ballooning deficit. There were various factors contributing to this, including structural issues such as a continuing increase in the number of elderly people eligible to receive social security benefits, and an increase in interest payments on government bonds due to rising interest rates.

This trend could continue into next year as well. Regardless of the state of the economy, the fact that the country was running such a large deficit would be a cause for concern, as it showed that there was not much fiscal space left to carry out government spending even if it fell into a recession.

              So, some experts say that what is interesting about the American economy is that it has a good balance in income and expenditure between consumers and businesses respectively. On the other hand, the country’s large deficit can be a cause for concern, as not much room will be left for the government to carry out spending even if facing a recession again.