更多警鐘敲響了電動車需求正在放緩

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

More alarm bells sound on slowing demand for electric vehicles

Ben Klayman

Thu, October 26, 2023 at 12:01 a.m. GMT+8

(Reuters) - High interest rates are derailing the ambitions of climate regulators and automakers to accelerate the shift to electric vehicles, underscored Wednesday by the scrapping of a GM-Honda partnership and a warning from a battery maker.

Electric vehicle sales are still growing strongly, but that demand is not keeping up with the expectations of carmakers and other companies that have invested billions of dollars in the EV space. Expectations for persistently higher interest rates has led companies to alter plans as they eye 2024 warily.

"EV demand next year could be lower than expectations," Lee Chang-sil, chief financial officer at South Korean battery maker LG Energy Solution said on Wednesday, due to global economic uncertainty.

Also on Wednesday, Honda and General Motors announced they were ending a $5 billion plan to develop lower-cost EVs together just a year after announcing the effort. GM on Tuesday said it would focus near-term EV efforts on meeting demand rather than hitting specific volume targets.

"We're taking immediate steps to enhance the profitability of our EV portfolio and adjust to slowing near-term growth," GM CEO Mary Barra told analysts.

Investors have responded to the changed outlook. Over the last three months, the iShares Self-Driving EV and Tech exchange-traded fund has plunged more than 24%, far more than the 8.3% fall for the MSCI All-World Index, a proxy for global equities.

EV sales are growing, however. They topped 300,000 units in the United States for the first time in the third quarter, according to a Cox Automotive report. They rose 14.3% in September in the European Union and 22% in China, the world's largest EV market.

FALLING RAW MATERIAL PRICES

Tesla CEO Elon Musk raised the alarm last week in explaining why he was slowing plans for a Mexico factory.

"I am worried about the high interest rate environment that we're in," he said on Tesla's earnings conference call. "As I just can't emphasize this enough that the vast majority of people buying a car is about the monthly payment. If interest rates remain high or if they go even higher, it's that much harder for people to buy the car."

Other automakers have sounded similar notes of caution.

Germany's Volkswagen last week cut its profit margin outlook for the year, blaming negative effects for raw material hedges at the end of the third quarter. Some of those materials are used in EV batteries.

Like many other industrial firms, carmakers hedge against commodity price swings, and with EV demand slowing, raw material prices have softened, including those used heavily in batteries.

Lithium prices have tumbled 67% so far this year based on spot lithium carbonate prices assessed by Fastmarkets. Prices of cobalt metal on the CME have slid 20% this year and more than halved since May last year.

U.S. automaker Ford earlier this month said it would temporarily cut one of three shifts at the plant that builds its electric F-150 Lightning pickup truck, and in July slowed its EV ramp-up, shifting investment to commercial vehicles and hybrids.

Shares of Japan's Nidec logged their biggest decline in a decade and a half on Tuesday, tumbling more than 10% on investor concerns over the motor manufacturer's prospects in an increasingly tough Chinese market for EVs.

The Japanese motor manufacturer now expects a 15 billion yen ($100 million) full-year loss at its key e-axle business, rather than the profit it had previously seen. E-axle manufacture combines motors, gears and power-control electronics.

China's CATL, the world's largest battery maker for EVs, said last week that third-quarter profit rose 10.7%, its weakest quarter since the start of last year due to slowing demand and stiff competition.

The company's market share in China tumbled in September to the lowest in more than a year, data showed, underscoring the challenges it faces from smaller rivals and weakening demand.

(Reporting by Ben Klayman in Detroit and David Gaffen in New York; additional reporting by Eric Onstad in London and Victoria Waldersee in Berlin; editing by Jonathan Oatis)

Translation

（路透社） - 高利率正在破壞氣候監管機構和汽車製造商加速向電動汽車轉型的雄心。週三通用汽車與本田汽車合作夥伴關係的取消,以及一家電池製造商的警告凸顯了這一點。

電動車銷量仍在強勁成長，但這種需求未能跟上汽車製造商和其他在電動車領域投資數十億美元的公司的預期。 對利率持續走高的預期導致企業改變計劃，謹慎地展望 2024 年。

韓國電池製造商 LG Energy Solution 財務長 Lee Chang-sil 週三表示，由於全球經濟不確定性，明年的電動車需求可能低於預期。

同樣在周三，本田和通用汽車宣布，他們將終止一項耗資 50 億美元的共同開發低成本電動車的計劃，這項計劃是在一年前宣布的。 通用汽車週二表示，近期電動車業務的重點將是滿足銷情需求，而不是達到具體的銷售目標。

通用汽車首席執行官 Mary Barra 對分析師表示： “我們正在立即採取措施，提高電動汽車產品組合的盈利能力，並適應近期增長放緩的情況。”

投資者對前景的改變做出了反應。 過去三個月，iShares 自動駕駛電動車和科技交易所交易基金暴跌超過 24%，遠超過代表全球股票的 MSCI 全球指數 8.3% 的跌幅。

然而，電動車銷量正在成長。 根據 Cox Automotive 的一份報告，第三季它們在美國的銷售量首次突破 30 萬輛。 9 月份，歐盟上升了 14.3%，全球最大電動車市場中國上升了 22%。

原材料價格下跌

Tesla執行長馬斯克上週在解釋為何放慢其墨西哥工廠計畫時發出了警告。

他在Tesla的財報電話會議上表示: 「我對我們所處的高利率環境感到擔憂」。 「我極盡強調這一點，絕大多數人買車都會留意每月的還款。如果利率居高不下或者更高，人們就很難買車了」。

其他汽車製造商也發出了類似的警告。

德國大眾汽車上週下調了今年的利潤率預期，並將其歸咎於第三季末對原材料對沖的負面影響。 其中一些材料用於電動車電池。

與許多其他工業公司一樣，汽車製造商對沖大宗商品價格波動的風險，隨著電動車需求放緩，原物料價格已經走軟，包括大量用於電池的原物料價格。

根據 Fastmarkets 評估的現貨碳酸鋰價格，今年迄今鋰價已下跌 67%。 CME 鈷金屬價格今年已下跌 20%，自去年 5 月以來已下跌逾一半。

美國汽車製造商福特本月稍早表示，將暫時削減生產電動 F-150 Lightning 小型貨斗車的工廠三制中的一班，並於7 月放慢了電動車的產能擴張，將投資轉向商用車和混合動力車。

週二，日本電產 (Nidec) 股價錄得十五年來最大下跌, 跌幅超過 10%，因投資者擔心這家汽車製造商在日益嚴峻的中國電動汽車市場中的前景，。

這家日本汽車製造商目前預計其主要電橋業務將全年出現 150 億日圓（1 億美元）的虧損，而不是先前的利潤。 電子車橋 (e-axle) 製造結合了馬達、齒輪和電力控制電子設備。

全球最大的電動車電池製造商中國的寧德時代(CATL)上週表示，由於需求放緩和競爭激烈，第三季獲利成長10.7%，是去年年初以來最疲軟的季度。

數據顯示，該公司在中國的市佔率在九月份跌至一年多來的最低水平，突顯了該公司面臨來自規模較小的競爭對手以及需求疲軟的挑戰。

       So, high interest rates are derailing the ambitions of automakers to accelerate the shift to electric vehicles, and slow down the demand for EV battery. Although Electric vehicle sales are still growing strongly, the demand is not keeping up with the expectations of carmakers that have invested billions of dollars in the EV business. It seems that global economy recovery has a long way to go.

Note:

1. The eAxle systems are a compact, cost-attractive electric drive solution for battery-electric vehicles and hybrid applications. The electric motor, power electronics and transmission are combined in a compact unit directly powering the vehicle's axle. This aids in making electric drives less complex but simpler. Additionally, the powertrain becomes cheaper, more compact and more efficient. (https://www.bosch-mobility.com/en/solutions/power-electronics/eaxle/)

2. Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Limited, abbreviated as CATL (寧德時代), is a Chinese battery manufacturer and technology company founded in 2011 that specializes in the manufacturing of lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles and energy storage systems, as well as battery management systems. (Wikipedia)