Why is the American economy strong? To ask an expert: Will GDP positive for the fifth consecutive quarter (1/2)

 

Recently NHK News on-line reported the following:

アメリカ経済なぜ堅調？ 専門家に聞く GDPは5期連続プラスか (1/2)

2023年10月25日 6時42分

アメリカのことし7月から9月までのGDP＝国内総生産が26日に発表されます。市場では、5期連続のプラス成長になるという見方が広がっていて、高い金利水準のもとでもアメリカ経済の堅調さが示される形になりそうです。

アメリカの7月から先月までのGDPは日本時間の26日午後9時半に発表されます。市場の予測では、前の3か月と比べた実質の伸び率は、年率に換算してプラス4.5％程度となっていて、5期連続のプラス成長になるとの見方が広がっています。

前の3か月の伸び率のプラス2.1％から拡大し、高い金利水準のもとでも経済の堅調さが示される形になりそうです。

要因について「バンク・オブ・アメリカ」のアディチャ・バベ シニアエコノミストは、9月の小売業の売上高が6か月連続で前の月を上回るなど個人消費が好調なことや、半導体などにおける政府の巨額の財政支出を受けて企業の設備投資が増加したことなどを指摘しています。

FRB＝連邦準備制度理事会のパウエル議長は、追加の利上げなどは今後の経済指標を見極めて慎重に判断していく考えを示していて、景気の現状と見通しに市場の関心がこれまで以上に集まりそうです。

【専門家Q＆A】

高い金利水準のもとでも、5期連続のプラス成長が予測されているアメリカ経済について「バンク・オブ・アメリカ」のアディチャ・バベ シニアエコノミスト（アメリカ経済担当）に聞きました。

Q1. 金融引き締め続けていてもなぜ堅調？

多くの要因が積み重なっている。FRBの急ピッチの利上げは、本来、住宅ローンの負担増加を通じ、個人消費にも影響を及ぼすはずだが、多くの世帯が低金利の時に固定金利でローンを組んだため、金利上昇の影響をほとんど受けていないことも、個人消費の好調さが続く要因となっている。

また、政府などの財政政策も予想以上の刺激となり、企業投資が大幅に押し上げられた形だ。労働の供給面では、在宅と出勤を組み合わせた働き方が可能になり、女性の労働参加率が予想以上に上昇している。

(to be continued)

Translation

America's GDP = Gross Domestic Product from July to September would be announced on the 26th. There was a widespread view in the market that this could be the fifth consecutive quarter of positive growth, and this was likely to demonstrate the robustness of the American economy even with high interest rates.

America's GDP from July to last month would be announced at 9:30 pm on the 26th Japan time. According to market forecasts, the real growth rate compared to the previous three months could be an annualized increase of around 4.5%, and there was a widespread view that this would be the fifth consecutive quarter of positive growth.

It would be an increase from the 2.1% growth rate seen in the previous three months, and was likely to show that the economy was strong even with high interest rates.

Regarding the factors, Aditya Bhave, senior economist at Bank of America, pointed out that consumer spending was strong, with retail sales in September exceeded the previous one for the sixth consecutive month, also that corporate capital investment in response to huge government spending on semiconductors, etc. had increased.

Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that he would make careful decisions regarding additional interest rate hikes etc. by looking at future economic indicators, and it was likely that the market would be more interested than ever in the economy’s current state and outlook.

[Expert Q&A]

We asked Aditya Bhave, Senior Economist (in charge of the US economy) at Bank of America, about the US economy, which was predicted to have positive growth for the fifth consecutive quarter, even with high interest rates.

Q1. Why the economy was strong despite continued monetary tightening?

Many factors came together. The Fed's rapid interest rate hikes should have had an impact on personal consumption by increasing the burden of home loans, but because many households took out fixed-rate loans when interest rates were low, they were largely unaffected by rising interest rates and this could be a factor in the continued strong performance of personal consumption.

In addition, the government's fiscal policies had provided more stimulus than expected, significantly boosting corporate investment. On the labor supply side, it had become possible to work from home and at work from office, and the labor force participation rate of women had increased beyond expectation.

(to be continued)