China cracks down on 'illegal' weather stations, new target in anti-espionage effort

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

中国、「違法な」測候所を取り締まり　スパイ防止活動の新たな標的に

2023.11.02 Thu posted at 18:30 JST

香港（ＣＮＮ） 中国が国内にある複数の測候所の取り締まりに動いていることが２日までに分かった。外国のためのスパイ活動を行っているというのがその理由だ。地政学的な緊張が高まる中、習近平（シーチンピン）国家主席の下で展開する広範なスパイ防止活動の最新の措置となる。

中国国家安全部は１０月３１日、違法と位置づける測候所をこれまで数百カ所発見していることを明らかにした。これらの測候所は外国とつながりがあり、リアルタイムの気象データを国外へ送っているという。これはデータにまつわる複数の規定に違反し、国家安全保障を危うくする行為とされる。

当該の測候所は２０以上の省で見つかった。中には「外国政府から直接資金提供を受けている」施設もある。国家安全部がソーシャルメディア上の声明で明らかにした。

一部の測候所は軍事基地や国防企業など機密に関わる施設の周辺に設置され、標高やＧＰＳ（全地球測位システム）データの特定に利用されていた。また主要な穀物生産地帯には、別の複数の測候所が穀物の生育や収穫高の分析のために設置されているという。

測候に使用する機器の中には、小型で簡単に設置できるものがある。これらは発見が難しく、自動的にデータを収集し、ネットワークを通じてリアルタイムで送信可能な仕組みになっている。

一部の測候所は、リアルタイムの情報を国外の気象機関に高頻度で送信していた。長期にわたる送信も多数の箇所で行われていたと声明は指摘。諸外国の「国土安全保障」及び気象観測に役立っていたと付け加えた。

国家安全部は、具体的にどの国が関与しているかは明言しなかった。

今回の発見に先駆け、気象観測装置を扱う国外の仲介業者１０社以上を対象とした調査並びに外国とつながりのある全国の測候所３０００カ所以上に対する捜索が行われた。

関連する外国側の当事者は、活動に当たって行政の許可を受けていなかった。収集したデータは中国の気象当局に提出することなく、承認を得ない形で国外に送信していたという。

外国の当事者が中国国内で気象データを収集し、中国当局がこれに異議を唱える事例は以前にも起きている。

２０１２年、米大使館が中国国内の大気の質に関するデータを記録、公開した際には、中国政府がそうした行為の停止を要求した。

今年初めには中国の偵察気球が米大陸を横断し、軍事関連施設の上空で空中静止するなどの事象が発生していた。この気球は米軍によって撃墜された。

中国側は気球について、民間のもので調査目的だと主張。主に気象関係の調査を行っていたところ計画していた経路を外れたとし、米軍による撃墜は過剰反応だと非難していた。

Translation

Hong Kong (CNN) It was learned on the 2nd that China was cracking down on several weather stations in the country. The reason was that the stations were conducting espionage activities for foreign countries. The move was the latest in a wide-ranging anti-espionage effort under President Xi Jinping as geopolitical tensions rise.

China's Ministry of State Security announced on October 31 that it had discovered hundreds of weather stations that it considered as illegal. These weather stations were said to have connections with foreign countries and send real-time weather data overseas. This was considered as an act that related to the violation of multiple data-related regulations and endangering national security.

Such weather stations were found in more than 20 provinces. Some facilities were "directly funded by foreign governments." This was made known by the Ministry of State Security in a statement on social media.

Some weather stations were installed near sensitive facilities, such as military bases and defense companies, also altitude, and global positioning system (GPS) data were specifically used. Several other weather stations had also been set up in major grain production areas for the purpose of analyzing grain growth and yields.

Some equipment used for weather measurement were small and easy to install. These systems were difficult to discover and were designed to automatically collect data and sent it across networks in real time.

Some weather stations frequently sent real-time information to meteorological agencies overseas. The statement also pointed out that the transmissions occurred over a long period of time in many locations. It added that it was useful for "homeland security" and weather observation in other countries.

The Ministry of State Security did not specify which countries were involved.

Prior to this discovery, investigations were conducted over more than 10 foreign intermediaries that handled weather observation equipment, as well as searching more than 3,000 weather stations across the country with ties to foreign countries.

The foreign parties involved did not have administrative permission for their activities. The collected data was not submitted to China's meteorological authorities and was sent outside the country without approval.

There had been previous cases where foreign parties collected weather data in China and the Chinese authorities raised objection.

In 2012, when the U.S. embassy recorded and released data on air quality in China, the Chinese government demanded an end to the practice.

Earlier this year, a Chinese reconnaissance balloon crossed the continental United States and hovered over military facilities. This balloon was shot down by the US military.

China insisted that this balloon was private and for research purposes. They said it was mainly conducting weather-related research when it deviated from the planned route, and criticized its shooting down by the US military as an overreaction.

So, China is cracking down on several foreign weather stations as it thinks that espionage activities for foreign countries are being conducted. It is interesting to note that previously in 2012, when the U.S. embassy recorded and released data on air quality in China, the Chinese government demanded to stop the practice. It seems that in China weather data could be a national secret.

Heart transplant from a pig - Second patient dies 6 weeks after surgery - US

Recently CNN on-line reported the following:

ブタからの心臓移植、２例目の患者が死亡　術後６週間　米

2023.11.01 Wed posted at 19:45 JST

（ＣＮＮ） 米メリーランド大学医療センターで今年９月、ブタの心臓を遺伝子操作したうえで移植する実験的な手術を受けた男性が、術後６週間で死亡した。

同センターによると、患者のローレンス・フォーセットさん（５８）は最近になって拒絶反応の症状を示し始め、術後６週間で亡くなった。

執刀したメリーランド大学医学部のバートリー・グリフィス博士は声明で「フォーセットさんの最後の望みは、人間からの移植を受けられない人々にも新しい心臓をもらうチャンスが与えられるよう、私たちが経験から学んだことを最大限に生かしてほしいということだった」「周りに集まった医師や看護師たちに、愛していると声を掛けてくれた」と、故人をしのんだ。

フォーセットさんは心不全の症状で９月１４日に入院し、６日後に移植手術を受けた。心疾患と基礎疾患のため、人間からの心臓移植は適応外とされた。

妻のアンさんは当時、「ただもっと一緒に過ごしたい、それ以外に望むことはない。２人で玄関ポーチに座ってコーヒーを飲めるだけでも」と話していた。

移植手術後の経過は順調で、理学療法を受けたり、家族とともに過ごしたりした。医師団は術後１カ月の時点で、心臓が問題なく機能していると確信し、機能を助けるための投薬を中止していた。グリフィス博士は当時、感染症や拒絶反応はみられないと述べていた。

医師らはフォーセットさんの免疫系を抑制して拒絶反応を防ぐため、実験的な抗体治療を試みた。しかし、拒絶反応は人間からの臓器移植でも最大の課題だと、同センターは指摘する。

ブタからの心臓移植手術は２例目。メリーランド大学では２０２２年１月、５７歳の男性が世界初の手術を受けたが、２カ月後に死亡した。死因は複数の要因による心不全とされ、当初検出されなかったブタのウイルスの痕跡も報告された。

Translation

(CNN) A man who underwent an experimental surgery to transplant a genetically engineered pig heart at the University of Maryland Medical Center in September died six weeks after the surgery.

According to the center, the patient Lawrence Fawcett (58), recently began showing symptoms of rejection and died six weeks after the surgery.

Dr. Bartley Griffiths of the University of Maryland School of Medicine who performed the surgery said in a statement: ``Mr. Fawcett's final wish is to use our experience to ensure that those who cannot receive a human transplant are given the chance to receive a new heart. He wanted me to make the most of what I learned," and said "He told the doctors and nurses who gathered around him that he loved them” and to remember the dead.

Fawcett was hospitalized on September 14th with symptoms of heart failure and underwent transplant surgery six days later. Because of his heart disease and underlying health conditions, a human heart transplant was deemed inapplicable.

His wife, Anne, said at the time: ``I do not want anything else; I just want to spend more time with him.  Just two of us to be able to sit at our front porch to have coffee.''

He was doing well after the transplant, undergoing physical therapy and spending time with his family. One month after the surgery, doctors were convinced that his heart was functioning properly and stopped giving medication to help it function. Dr Griffiths said at the time that there was no evidence of infection or rejection.

Doctors tried an experimental antibody treatment to suppress Fawcett's immune system and prevent rejection. However, the same center pointed out that rejection was the biggest challenge even with human organ transplants.

This was the second heart transplant surgery from a pig performed. In January 2022, a 57-year-old man underwent the world's first surgery at the University of Maryland, but died two months later. The cause of death was deemed to be heart failure due to multiple factors, and traces of the pig virus, which had not been detected at first, were also reported.

So, a man who underwent an experimental surgery to transplant a genetically engineered pig heart died six weeks after the surgery. This is the second heart transplant surgery performed from a pig. Obviously, human kind will continue to do experiments until safe transplantation is achieved.

A key to combat global warming discovered during fossil fuel extraction (2/2)

 Recently CNN News on-line reported the following:

化石燃料の採掘中に発見された温暖化対策のカギ (2/2)

2023.10.30 Mon posted at 17:03 JST

(continue)

大挙するベンチャー企業

ホワイト水素の生成過程は数多くあるが、大規模で天然の貯蔵地が形成された経緯についてはいまだ分かっていない部分もある。

地質学者の間では、鉄を豊富に含んだ石と水が科学反応を起こして水素を生成する「蛇紋石化作用」と、水分子を放射線が分解する「放射線分解」に絞られている。

ホワイト水素の埋蔵地は、米国、東欧、ロシア、オーストラリア、オマーン、フランスやマリなど、世界各地で発見されている。

偶然発見されたケースもあれば、「フェアリーサークル（妖精の踊りの環）」とも呼ばれる地形を手掛かりに探すケースもある。浅い楕円（だえん）形のくぼみは、水素が漏れ出ている可能性を示す指針だ。

エリス氏の推計では、世界には数百億トンのホワイト水素が眠っているとみられる。現在１年間で生成される水素量の１億トンをはるかに超える数字だ。２０５０年までに年間５億トンを生成することも予想されるとエリス氏は言う。

「ほぼ間違いなく、ホワイト水素の大半は蓄積量が極めて少ないか、遠洋に位置しているか、あまりにも深すぎて現実的に生成が経済的でないかだ」とエリス氏。だがそのうちわずか１％でも見つけて発掘できれば、２００年間で５億トンの水素が生成できるだろうとも付け加えた。

多くのベンチャー企業にとって、のどから手が出るような見通しだ。

オーストラリアを拠点とする企業「ゴールドハイドロゲン」は現在、南オーストラリア州のヨーク半島で採掘を行っている。この場所に狙いを絞ったのは、同州の記録保管所を掘り起こしたところ、１９２０年代に複数の掘削した穴から超高濃度の水素が発見されたとの記述を発見したのがきっかけだった。当時の採掘者は化石燃料にしか関心がなかったため、水素には目もくれなかった。

責任者のニール・マクドナルド氏は「目の前の展開にとても興奮している」と言う。さらに調査と採掘が必要だが、２０２４年遅くには初期生産を開始できるだろうと同氏はＣＮＮに語った。

破格の投資額を提示されたベンチャー企業もある。デンバーに拠点を置くホワイト水素企業「コロマ」は、マイクロソフト創業者のビル・ゲイツ氏が設立した投資会社「ブレークスルー・エナジー・ベンチャーズ（ＢＥＶ）」などの投資家から９１００万ドル（約１３６億円）の投資を集めた。もっとも、米国内の採掘場所や商用化の目標時期については硬く口を閉ざしている。

同じくデンバーを拠点とし、ビチェスラフ・ズゴニク氏が創業した「ナチュラルハイドロゲンエナジー」は１９年にネブラスカ州で水素の地質調査を完了し、さらに追加で採掘を計画している。「初の商用プロジェクトに非常に近づいている」とズゴニク氏はＣＮＮに語った。

ズゴニク氏は、気候変動対策の「スピードアップを可能にする解決策、それが天然水素だ」と述べた。

ブームを現実に

こうした企業や科学者にとっての難題は、理論上の期待をいかに商用化するかだろう。

「数十年もの間、試行錯誤や見切り発車が繰り返される可能性もある」とエリス氏は言う。だがスピード感は不可欠だ。「資源開発に２００年もかかるのであれば、たいして役には立たなくなってしまう」

だが多くのベンチャー企業は強気だ。中には数十年ではなく、数年のうちに商用化できると予測する声もある。「多少の微調整は必要だが、必要な技術はすべてそろっている」とズゴニク氏は言う。

それでも課題は残る。一部の国では規制が障壁になっている。費用の面でも努力が必要だ。マリの井戸をベースにした概算によると、ホワイト水素の生成にかかる費用は１キログラムあたり約１ドル（約１５０円）。これに対し、グリーン水素の場合は１キログラム当たり約６ドルだ。だが大量の埋蔵地を確保するためにさらに深く採掘しなければならない場合、ホワイト水素の費用は一気に上がりかねない。

ロレーヌ鉱山盆地では、ピロノン氏とデ・ドナート氏が次の段階として、ホワイト水素の埋蔵量を正確に知るために、地下３０００メートルまで採掘しようとしている。

まだまだ道のりは長い。しかし、かつて西欧の主要な石炭生産地だったこの地域が新たなホワイト水素業界の中心地になる日が来たなら、なんとも皮肉な話だ。

Translation

(continue)

Large number of venture companies

There were many ways white hydrogen could be produced, but in some areas, we still did not understand how large-scale natural reservoirs were formed.

Geologists had narrowed it down to ``serpentinization'' in which iron-rich stones and water undergo a chemical reaction that produced hydrogen, and ``radiolysis,'' in which water molecules were broken down by radiation.

Reserves of white hydrogen had been discovered in many parts of the world, including the United States, Eastern Europe, Russia, Australia, Oman, France, and Mali.

In some cases they were discovered by chance, while in others they had been searched for based on geographical features, also known as ``fairy circles.'' Shallow oval-shaped depressions were indicators that hydrogen might be escaping.

Ellis estimated that there were tens of billions of tons of white hydrogen lying around the world. This figure far exceeded the 100 million tons of hydrogen currently produced per year. Ellis said it was also expected that 500 million tonnes would be generated each year up to 2050.

Ellis said, "Arguably, most of the white hydrogen is either has a very low amount of accumulation located in oceans, or too deep to be realistically economically produced". But if even 1% of that could be found and excavated, he added, 500 million tons of hydrogen could be produced in 200 years.

For many venture companies, they wanted this outlook so badly that their hands might reach out from their throats to grab it​.

 Australian-based company Gold Hydrogen was currently mining on South Australia's Yorke Peninsula. They zeroed in on this site after digging into the state's archives and finding a description of extremely high concentrations of hydrogen being discovered in several holes drilled in the 1920s. Miners at the time were only interested in fossil fuels and did not pay attention to hydrogen.

Director Neil MacDonald said: ``We're very excited about what is ahead.'' Further exploration and mining were required, but he told CNN that initial production could begin in late 2024.

Some venture companies had been offered with unprecedented investment amounts. Koloma, a Denver-based white hydrogen company, had received $91 million (approx. 13.6 billion yen) from investors including Breakthrough Energy Ventures (BEV) that was an investment company founded by Microsoft founder Bill Gates.  However, the company remained tight-lipped about the mining location in the United States and the target date for commercialization.

Natural Hydrogen Energy, also based in Denver and founded by Vyacheslav Zgonik, completed geological exploration for hydrogen in Nebraska in 2019 and additional mining was planned. Zgonik told CNN that "We're very close to our first commercial project."

In the fight against climate change Zgonik said that “a solution can speed up it: that is natural hydrogen. "

To make a boom into reality

The challenge for these companies and scientists would be how to commercialize theoretical promise.

Ellis said, “There could be decades of repeated trial and error and premature decisions making". But a sense of speed is essential. "If it takes 200 years to develop resources, on comparison it won't be of much use."

However, many venture companies were confident. Some predicted it could be commercially available within years rather than decades. Zgonik said: "It will take some fine-tuning, but we have all the technology that we need".

Still, challenges remained. Regulation was a barrier in some countries. Efforts also had to be made in terms of cost. According to estimates based on wells in Mali, the cost to produce white hydrogen was about $1 (about 150 yen) per kilogram. Green hydrogen, by contrast, costs about $6 per kilogram. But the cost of white hydrogen could rise non-stop if it had to be mined deeper to secure large reserves.

In the Lorraine mining basin, Pironon and de Donato's next step was to mine 3,000 meters underground to determine exactly how much white hydrogen could be there.

There was still a long way to go. But it would be ironic if this region, once a major coal-producing region in Western Europe, were one day to become the center of the new white hydrogen industry.

              So, two scientists have made a discovery that could accelerate our effort to combat climate change. Our interest in white hydrogen has rapidly increased over the past few years as an untapped source of clean energy that has no environmental impact when burned. Many venture companies are confident. Some predict it could be commercially available within years rather than decades. This is good news in the context of fighting climate change.

Note:

1. Serpentinization is the process of hydrothermal alteration that transforms Fe-Mg-silicates such as olivine, pyroxene, or amphiboles contained in ultramafic rocks into serpentine minerals. Much of the uppermost mantle in oceanic setting is so altered. (https://link.springer.com/)

Serpentinite is a rock composed predominantly of one or more serpentine group minerals, the name originating from the similarity of the texture of the rock to that of the skin of a snake. Serpentinite has been called serpentine or serpentine rock, particularly in older geological texts and in wider cultural settings. (wikepedia)

2. Breakthrough Energy (BEV) is the umbrella name of several organizations, founded by Bill Gates in 2015, that aim to accelerate innovation in sustainable energy and in other technologies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. (Wikipedia)

3. Koloma is a geologic hydrogen company that leverages its technology, proprietary data, and human capital advantages to identify and commercialize these resources on a global scale. In its web-site the company claims that its production methods produce hydrogen in a clean, continuous, and cost-effective manner. (https://koloma.com/about-us/)

4. Natural Hydrogen Energy is a Denver-based company founded by geochemist Vyacheslav Zgonik. It completed an exploratory hydrogen well in Nebraska in 2019 and has plans for more wells. (https://serbia.postsen.com/world/243381/Revolutionary-discovery-They-explored-coal-mines-found-the-fuel-of-the-future--Insider-TV.htm)

A key to combat global warming discovered during fossil fuel extraction (1/2)

Recently CNN News on-line reported the following:

化石燃料の採掘中に発見された温暖化対策のカギ (1/2)

2023.10.30 Mon posted at 17:03 JST

（ＣＮＮ） 化石燃料を探し求めてフランス北東部を採掘していた２人の科学者は、自分たちが気候変動対策を加速させうる発見をするとは予想していなかった。

ジャック・ピロノン氏とフィリップ・ド・ドナート氏はフランス国立科学研究センターの研究主任。地下深部岩石層の水に溶解しているガスを分析できる「世界初」の特殊な探査機を使って、ロレーヌ鉱山盆地下層のメタン量を調査していた。

数百メートル掘り進んだところで、探査機は低濃度の水素を検知した。「これにはたいして驚かなかった」とピロノン氏はＣＮＮに語った。掘削した穴の表面付近で少量の水素が検知されることは珍しくない。だがさらに掘り進めるにつれ、水素濃度は地下１１００メートルで１４％、１２５０メートルで２０％と上がっていった。

ひょっとすると、過去最大級の「ホワイト水素」貯蔵層かもしれないとピロノン氏は言う。今回の発見で、すでに関心を集めている水素がさらに盛り上がっている。

ホワイト水素は「天然水素」「ゴールド水素」「地中水素」とも呼ばれる。地球の地殻で自然に生成された、または存在する水素のことで、気候変動対策の究極の理想ともいうべき存在だ。

水素は燃焼すると水しか生成しない。航空業界、海運業、製鉄業など、膨大なエネルギーを必要とするものの太陽光や風力発電で賄うのは不可能な業界では、水素が次のクリーンエネルギー源として注目を集めている。

水素は自然界にもっとも多く存在する元素であるものの、一般的には他の分子と結合した形で存在している。現在商業利用されている水素は生成過程で大量のエネルギーを消費する。エネルギー源のほとんどは化石燃料だ。

水素の種類を区分するために、様々な色が略称に用いられている。「グレー」はメタンガスから、「ブラウン」は石炭から生成した水素だ。「ブルー」はグレー水素と同様にメタンガス由来の水素だが、副産物として生成される温暖化ガスを大気に放出する前に回収している。

気候変動の観点で最も期待されているのが、再生エネルギーを使って水を分解する「グリーン水素」だ。だがいまのところ製造行程は小規模で、費用もかさむ。

そうした理由からここ数年、燃焼しても環境に負荷がなく、豊富に眠っていると思われる手つかずのクリーンエネルギー源として、ホワイト水素への関心が急激に高まっている。

「間違った場所に目を向けていた」

「４年前に天然水素をどう思うかと尋ねられたら、『そんなものは存在しない』と答えていただろう」と語るのは、米地質調査所（ＵＳＧＳ）の地球化学者ジェフェリー・エリス氏だ。「水素がそこら中にあるのは常識」だが、科学者の間では大量に堆積（たいせき）することはありえないと考えられていたという。

そんな時、エリス氏はマリの出来事を耳にした。今日のホワイト水素ブームのきっかけは、この西アフリカの国から始まったと言っても過言ではない。

１９８７年、という村で採掘作業員が井戸の縁にもたれかかりながらたばこを吸っていると、突然井戸が爆発し、作業員はやけどを負った。

すぐさま井戸は封鎖され、ずっと放置されていたが、２０１１年に石油ガス会社が封鎖を解いたところ、井戸からガスが発生していたという。その９８％が水素だった。水素は村の電力源に利用され、１０年以上経過した今も生成され続けているという。

１８年に井戸の調査が行われると、科学界の目が注がれた。エリス氏もそのうちの一人だったが、「こんなことはありえないと分かっていたので」、当初は調査に誤りがあったに違いないと考えていた。

その後、新型コロナウイルス感染症のパンデミック（世界的大流行）が到来し、時間に余裕ができたエリス氏は詳しく調べてみることにした。調べていくうちに「自分たちは探そうともせず、間違った場所に目を向けていた」ことに気がついた。

１９８０年代から石油地質学者として活動するエリス氏も、最近の発見に胸を躍らせている。同氏はエネルギー市場に革命をもたらしたシェールガスが米国で急成長するのを目の当たりにしてきた。「そして今度は」と同氏は言う。「おそらく第２の革命と思われる時代に突入した」

ポー・エ・デ・ペイ・ド・ラドゥール大学とソルボンヌ大学の科学研究者で、ホワイト水素に詳しいイザベル・モレッティ氏も同意見で、水素は「非常に将来有望だ」と述べた。

「いまや問題は資源そのものではなく、経済的かつ膨大な埋蔵量がどこにあるかだ」とモレッティ氏はＣＮＮに語った。

(to be continued)

Translation

(CNN) Two scientists mining northeastern France in search of fossil fuels never expected they would make a discovery that could accelerate efforts to combat climate change.

Jacques Pironon and Philippe de Donato were research directors at the French National Center for Scientific Research. They were investigating the amount of methane in the underground layers of the Lorraine Mine Basin using a ``world's first'' special probing machine that could analyze gas dissolved in water in deep underground rock formations.

After digging several hundred meters, the probe detected low concentration of hydrogen. Pironon told CNN that "I wasn't really surprised by this". It was not uncommon for small amounts of hydrogen being detected near the surface of drilled holes. However, as the excavation progressed further, the hydrogen concentration rose to 14% at 1,100 meters underground and 20% at 1,250 meters underground.

Pironon said it might be the largest ever reservoir of "white hydrogen". The discovery added to our already growing interest in hydrogen.

White hydrogen was also called ``natural hydrogen,'' ``gold hydrogen,'' and ``underground hydrogen.'' Hydrogen, which occurred naturally or existed in the Earth's crust, could be said to be the ultimate ideal for climate change countermeasures.

When hydrogen was burned, it produced only water. Hydrogen was attracting attention as being the next clean energy source in industries such as aviation, shipping, and steel manufacturing that required large amounts of energy but could not be met with solar or wind power.

Although hydrogen was the most abundant element in nature, it generally existed in the form of bonds with other molecules. In the production of hydrogen that were for commercial use, currently that would consume a large amount of energy. Most energy sources were fossil fuels.

Various colors were used in abbreviations to distinguish different types of hydrogen. The ``grey'' was hydrogen produced from methane gas, and the ``brown'' was hydrogen produced from coal. "Blue" hydrogen, like grey hydrogen, was derived from methane gas, but the greenhouse gas produced as a byproduct was captured before being released into the atmosphere.

From the perspective of climate change, the most promising technology would be ``green hydrogen,'' which used renewable energy to split water. But for now, manufacturing operations were small-scale and costs were increasing.

For these reasons, interest in white hydrogen had rapidly increased over the past few years as an untapped source of clean energy that had no environmental impact when burned and was believed to be in abundance.

“Looking at the wrong place”

Jeffrey Ellis, a geochemist at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) said "If you had asked me four years ago what I thought about natural hydrogen, I would have said, 'It doesn't exist.'" While “It's common knowledge that hydrogen is everywhere," yet scientists thought it was impossible for it to accumulate in large quantities.

At that time, Mr. Ellis heard about what happened in Mari. It was no exaggeration to say that today's white hydrogen boom began in this West African country.

In 1987, a mining worker in a village was smoking a cigarette while leaning on the edge of a well when the well suddenly exploded, injuring the worker with burns.

The well was immediately sealed off and left unused for some time, but when the oil and gas company unblocked it in 2011, gas was reportedly emanating from the well. 98% of it was hydrogen. Hydrogen was used as a source of electricity for local villages, and it was said that the well was still being produced more than 10 years had passed.

When the well was investigated in 2018, the scientific community turned its attention to it. Mr. Ellis was one of them, but at first he thought there must be an error in the investigation, "because I knew that it couldn't have happened".

Then the coronavirus pandemic hit, and with time on his hands, Ellis decided to take a closer look. As he investigated, he realized that ``we were looking at the wrong places, we did not even try to find it.''

Ellis, who has been a petroleum geologist since the 1980s, was also excited about his latest discovery. He had witnessed the rapid growth of shale gas in the United States which had revolutionized the energy market ". He said that "This is the moment". "We have entered an era that is probably considered to be a second revolution."

Isabelle Moretti, a research scientist at Universite de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour and Sorbonne University who was also an expert on white hydrogen agreed, calling hydrogen "very promising."

Moretti told CNN that "The question is no longer the resources themselves, but about where are those economically viable and significant reserves".

(to be continued)

On Vacation

 WING will be on vacation starting from to-morrow for six days. Thank you for visiting this blog.

U.S. - begins to unravel Hamas's funding sources and ascertains an investment list

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

ハマスの資金源の解明に着手、投資先リストも把握へ　米

2023.10.28 Sat posted at 16:30 JST

（ＣＮＮ） 米情報機関と法執行機関が、イスラム組織「ハマス」の活動資金集めや得ている支援内容の実態を把握する調査を新たに始めたことが２８日までにわかった。

元職や現職の複数の米政府当局者がＣＮＮに明らかにした。米国内にも浸透しているハマスの活動の形態も調査対象にする。

今回の調査は、パレスチナ自治区ガザ地区を実効支配するハマスとイスラエルの軍事衝突を受け、ハマスやレバノンを拠点にするイスラム教シーア派武装組織「ヒズボラ」が及ぼす脅威について米情報機関などが現在進めているより広範な再評価作業の一環。

ハマスとヒズボラにはいずれもイランが肩入れしている。ヒズボラは中東で最も強力な民兵組織の一つと受け止められている。

ハマスが米国内に支援者のネットワークを築き、主に資金集めに活用していることは長い間知られていた。同組織の活動上の主眼は伝統的にイスラエルへの攻撃だったため、米政府当局はハマスが米国の権益や米本土へ攻撃を仕掛ける可能性は少ないとの判断に落ち着いていた。

米政府当局者の１人は、ハマスによるイスラエルへの大規模奇襲が今月７日に起きるまで、ハマスの米国内での活動の目的は「資金収集」と位置づけてもいた。大規模奇襲がきっかけとなった情勢の急変で軌道修正を迫られ、米の法執行機関などがハマスの資金源の解明などに全面的に取り組む格好となった。

米政府当局者はまた、ハマスが保持する預金、株式、債券や不動産など「秘密」の投資先リストや金融商品リストの究明作業を強化していることも明らかにした。これら資産は４億米ドル（約６００億円）から１０億ドルまでの範囲にあるとされ、ハマスにとっては相当な規模の収入源になっているとみている。

この究明作業では米財務省が、サウジアラビアやカタール、クウェートなどで組織する「湾岸協力会議」（ＧＣＣ）と協力。米国、サウジ両国当局者は最近、首都リヤドでテロ資金調達の封じ込めを狙う組織「ＴＦＴＣ」の緊急会合を招集した。

ＴＦＴＣには米国とＧＣＣ加盟国が参加し、２０１７年に創設された。米政府当局者によると、ハマスやヒズボラに加え、イランが支援する過激派組織に絡む資金の流れなどの追跡を加速している。関連性があり、時期を得た実用的な情報の共有などを進めているという。

この中で米財務省は最近、ハマスの「秘密」の投資先リストを管理していたとする人物に制裁を科した。世界規模で展開している投資の形態には「合法的な事業推進を装った」企業などが含まれるとされ、スーダン、アルジェリア、トルコ、アラブ首長国連邦（ＵＡＥ）や他の国で活動しているという。

Translation

(CNN) It was revealed on the 28th that U.S. intelligence and law enforcement agencies had begun a new investigation into the Islamic organization Hamas' fundraising efforts and the supports it received.

This was confirmed to CNN by multiple former and current U.S. government officials. The scope of the investigation would also include the forms of Hamas activities that had penetrated the United States.

The investigation currently underway by U.S. intelligence agencies was part of a wider reassessment exercise regarding the threat posed by Hamas and Hezbollah which was a Shiite Islamic militant group based in Lebanon, following the military conflicts between Israel and Hamas that effectively controlling the Gaza Strip.

Both Hamas and Hezbollah were supported by Iran. Hezbollah was considered one of the most powerful militias in the Middle East.

It had long been known that Hamas had built a network of supporters in the United States which it used primarily to raise funds. Because the group's main focus had traditionally been attacking Israel, U.S. officials concluded that Hamas was unlikely to launch an attack on U.S. interests or the U.S. mainland.

One U.S. government official said that until Hamas's large-scale surprise attack on Israel occurred on the 7th of this month, the purpose of Hamas's activities in the United States was merely defined as "fund collection." The sudden change in the situation triggered by the large-scale surprise attack forced a course correction, and U.S. law enforcement agencies began a full-scale effort to uncover Hamas's funding sources.

U.S. officials also said they were stepping up efforts to uncover a list of "secret" investments and financial products held by Hamas, including deposits, stocks, bonds and real estate. These assets were said to be worth between US$400 million (approximately 60 billion yen) and US$1 billion, and were believed to be a significant source of income for Hamas.

In this investigation, the U.S. Treasury Department cooperated with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), an organization made up of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, and other countries. U.S. and Saudi officials recently convened in the capital Riyadh an emergency meeting of the TFTC, a group that aimed to contain terrorist financing.

The TFTC was established in 2017 with the participation of the United States and GCC member countries. U.S. officials said they were accelerating their efforts to track financial flows connected to Iran-backed extremist groups, as well as Hamas and Hezbollah. They were working to share relevant, timely, and practical information.

The U.S. Treasury Department recently imposed sanctions on people it said were responsible for maintaining a "secret" list of Hamas investments. It was said that the types of investments that were taking place on a global scale included companies ``disguised as legitimate business promotions,'' operating in Sudan, Algeria, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and other countries.

              So, U.S. intelligence and law enforcement agencies have begun a new investigation into the Islamic organization Hamas' fundraising efforts and the supports it receives. Because the group's focus has traditionally been to attack Israel, U.S. officials have concluded that Hamas is unlikely to launch an attack on the U.S. Now they are under the scrutiny of the US.

 Note:

The Task Force on Tax and Crime (TFTC) supports jurisdictions efforts to combat tax crimes through implementation of the "Oslo Dialogue"—a policy initiative launched in 2013 to promote a 'whole of government' approach to fighting tax crime and other financial crimes through standard setting, sharing of best practices, and capacity building. The OECD (the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) is uniquely positioned to lead change in this field owing to its leading role in each of these areas. (https://www.oecd.org/fr/fiscalite/delits/tftc-strategy-and-direction.htm)

India's young people should work 70 hours a week: billionaire founder of IT giant says

Recently CNN.co.jp reported the following:

インドの若者、週７０時間働くべき　ＩＴ大手創業の富豪が発言

2023.10.28 Sat posted at 15:47 JST

ニューデリー（ＣＮＮ） インドのソフトウェア大手インフォシスの共同創業者、ナラヤナ・マーシー氏はこのほど、インドを世界的な経済大国に押し上げたいなら、若者たちは超長時間労働をする必要があるとの見方を示した。

マーシー氏は「固い決意を胸に、並外れた規律と勤勉さで」働く若者がインドには必要だと発言。若者は週７０時間働くべきだと指摘した。

「これはまさにドイツ人や日本人が第２次世界大戦後にやったことだ」とも述べた。インフォシスのモハンダス・パイ元最高財務責任者（ＣＦＯ）との会話の模様は２６日、ユーチューブ上で公開された。

マーシー氏が１９８１年に共同創業したインフォシスはその後、世界最大級のアウトソーシング企業に成長した。米経済誌フォーブスの試算では、同氏の資産は４０億ドル（約５９８０億円）を超える。

マーシー氏は英国のスナク首相の義父でもある。

「どういうわけかインドの若者は欧米の望ましくない習慣を受け入れてしまい、国に貢献しない傾向がある」とマーシー氏。「インドの労働生産性は世界最低水準にある」との見方を示し、新興市場、特に中国の成長を促進した政策から学ぶべきだと言い添えた。

国際通貨基金（ＩＭＦ）によると、インドは世界有数のスピードで経済成長を遂げており、今年の成長率は６．３％に上ると見込まれている。

ＳＮＳ上ではマーシー氏の発言に批判の声が上がった。近年の調査では、自分たちは世界最悪レベルの長時間労働と低賃金にあえいでいるとインド人が感じていることが明らかになっている。

Translation

New Delhi (CNN) Narayana Murthy, co-founder of Indian software giant Infosys, recently expressed the opinion that young people would need to work extended long hours if India wanted to become a global economic power.

Murthy said India needed young people who worked "with great determination, exceptional discipline and hard work." He pointed out that young people should work 70 hours a week.

He said, "This is exactly what the Germans and Japanese did after World War II." A conversation with Mohandas Pai the former chief financial officer of Infosys was published on YouTube on the 26th.

Infosys, which Murthy co-founded in 1981, had since grown to become one of the world's largest outsourcing companies. According to estimates by the US business magazine Forbes, his assets were over $4 billion (approximately 598 billion yen).

Mr. Murthy was also the father-in-law of British Prime Minister Sunak.

Murthy said, “For some reason, young people in India tend to adopt the undesirable habits of the West and do not contribute to the country". He also said, "India's labor productivity is among the lowest in the world," and added that India should learn from the policies that had spurred growth in emerging markets, especially China.

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), India was one of the fastest growing economies in the world, with growth expected to reach 6.3% this year.

Murthy's comments drew criticism on social media. Recent surveys had revealed that Indians felt that they were suffering from some of the worst long working hours and low wages in the world.

              So, an entrepreneur in India expressed the opinion that young people need to work extended long hours for the benefit of the country. I remember that, about a decade ago, a famous Chinese entrepreneur had said similar things regarding workers in China. To me, it should be the management’s responsibility to devise ways for workers to work more effectively and efficiently, rather than extending their working hours. To work extended long hours, among other negative effects, may lead to a diminishing return in productivity.

更多警鐘敲響了電動車需求正在放緩

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

More alarm bells sound on slowing demand for electric vehicles

Ben Klayman

Thu, October 26, 2023 at 12:01 a.m. GMT+8

(Reuters) - High interest rates are derailing the ambitions of climate regulators and automakers to accelerate the shift to electric vehicles, underscored Wednesday by the scrapping of a GM-Honda partnership and a warning from a battery maker.

Electric vehicle sales are still growing strongly, but that demand is not keeping up with the expectations of carmakers and other companies that have invested billions of dollars in the EV space. Expectations for persistently higher interest rates has led companies to alter plans as they eye 2024 warily.

"EV demand next year could be lower than expectations," Lee Chang-sil, chief financial officer at South Korean battery maker LG Energy Solution said on Wednesday, due to global economic uncertainty.

Also on Wednesday, Honda and General Motors announced they were ending a $5 billion plan to develop lower-cost EVs together just a year after announcing the effort. GM on Tuesday said it would focus near-term EV efforts on meeting demand rather than hitting specific volume targets.

"We're taking immediate steps to enhance the profitability of our EV portfolio and adjust to slowing near-term growth," GM CEO Mary Barra told analysts.

Investors have responded to the changed outlook. Over the last three months, the iShares Self-Driving EV and Tech exchange-traded fund has plunged more than 24%, far more than the 8.3% fall for the MSCI All-World Index, a proxy for global equities.

EV sales are growing, however. They topped 300,000 units in the United States for the first time in the third quarter, according to a Cox Automotive report. They rose 14.3% in September in the European Union and 22% in China, the world's largest EV market.

FALLING RAW MATERIAL PRICES

Tesla CEO Elon Musk raised the alarm last week in explaining why he was slowing plans for a Mexico factory.

"I am worried about the high interest rate environment that we're in," he said on Tesla's earnings conference call. "As I just can't emphasize this enough that the vast majority of people buying a car is about the monthly payment. If interest rates remain high or if they go even higher, it's that much harder for people to buy the car."

Other automakers have sounded similar notes of caution.

Germany's Volkswagen last week cut its profit margin outlook for the year, blaming negative effects for raw material hedges at the end of the third quarter. Some of those materials are used in EV batteries.

Like many other industrial firms, carmakers hedge against commodity price swings, and with EV demand slowing, raw material prices have softened, including those used heavily in batteries.

Lithium prices have tumbled 67% so far this year based on spot lithium carbonate prices assessed by Fastmarkets. Prices of cobalt metal on the CME have slid 20% this year and more than halved since May last year.

U.S. automaker Ford earlier this month said it would temporarily cut one of three shifts at the plant that builds its electric F-150 Lightning pickup truck, and in July slowed its EV ramp-up, shifting investment to commercial vehicles and hybrids.

Shares of Japan's Nidec logged their biggest decline in a decade and a half on Tuesday, tumbling more than 10% on investor concerns over the motor manufacturer's prospects in an increasingly tough Chinese market for EVs.

The Japanese motor manufacturer now expects a 15 billion yen ($100 million) full-year loss at its key e-axle business, rather than the profit it had previously seen. E-axle manufacture combines motors, gears and power-control electronics.

China's CATL, the world's largest battery maker for EVs, said last week that third-quarter profit rose 10.7%, its weakest quarter since the start of last year due to slowing demand and stiff competition.

The company's market share in China tumbled in September to the lowest in more than a year, data showed, underscoring the challenges it faces from smaller rivals and weakening demand.

(Reporting by Ben Klayman in Detroit and David Gaffen in New York; additional reporting by Eric Onstad in London and Victoria Waldersee in Berlin; editing by Jonathan Oatis)

Translation

（路透社） - 高利率正在破壞氣候監管機構和汽車製造商加速向電動汽車轉型的雄心。週三通用汽車與本田汽車合作夥伴關係的取消,以及一家電池製造商的警告凸顯了這一點。

電動車銷量仍在強勁成長，但這種需求未能跟上汽車製造商和其他在電動車領域投資數十億美元的公司的預期。 對利率持續走高的預期導致企業改變計劃，謹慎地展望 2024 年。

韓國電池製造商 LG Energy Solution 財務長 Lee Chang-sil 週三表示，由於全球經濟不確定性，明年的電動車需求可能低於預期。

同樣在周三，本田和通用汽車宣布，他們將終止一項耗資 50 億美元的共同開發低成本電動車的計劃，這項計劃是在一年前宣布的。 通用汽車週二表示，近期電動車業務的重點將是滿足銷情需求，而不是達到具體的銷售目標。

通用汽車首席執行官 Mary Barra 對分析師表示： “我們正在立即採取措施，提高電動汽車產品組合的盈利能力，並適應近期增長放緩的情況。”

投資者對前景的改變做出了反應。 過去三個月，iShares 自動駕駛電動車和科技交易所交易基金暴跌超過 24%，遠超過代表全球股票的 MSCI 全球指數 8.3% 的跌幅。

然而，電動車銷量正在成長。 根據 Cox Automotive 的一份報告，第三季它們在美國的銷售量首次突破 30 萬輛。 9 月份，歐盟上升了 14.3%，全球最大電動車市場中國上升了 22%。

原材料價格下跌

Tesla執行長馬斯克上週在解釋為何放慢其墨西哥工廠計畫時發出了警告。

他在Tesla的財報電話會議上表示: 「我對我們所處的高利率環境感到擔憂」。 「我極盡強調這一點，絕大多數人買車都會留意每月的還款。如果利率居高不下或者更高，人們就很難買車了」。

其他汽車製造商也發出了類似的警告。

德國大眾汽車上週下調了今年的利潤率預期，並將其歸咎於第三季末對原材料對沖的負面影響。 其中一些材料用於電動車電池。

與許多其他工業公司一樣，汽車製造商對沖大宗商品價格波動的風險，隨著電動車需求放緩，原物料價格已經走軟，包括大量用於電池的原物料價格。

根據 Fastmarkets 評估的現貨碳酸鋰價格，今年迄今鋰價已下跌 67%。 CME 鈷金屬價格今年已下跌 20%，自去年 5 月以來已下跌逾一半。

美國汽車製造商福特本月稍早表示，將暫時削減生產電動 F-150 Lightning 小型貨斗車的工廠三制中的一班，並於7 月放慢了電動車的產能擴張，將投資轉向商用車和混合動力車。

週二，日本電產 (Nidec) 股價錄得十五年來最大下跌, 跌幅超過 10%，因投資者擔心這家汽車製造商在日益嚴峻的中國電動汽車市場中的前景，。

這家日本汽車製造商目前預計其主要電橋業務將全年出現 150 億日圓（1 億美元）的虧損，而不是先前的利潤。 電子車橋 (e-axle) 製造結合了馬達、齒輪和電力控制電子設備。

全球最大的電動車電池製造商中國的寧德時代(CATL)上週表示，由於需求放緩和競爭激烈，第三季獲利成長10.7%，是去年年初以來最疲軟的季度。

數據顯示，該公司在中國的市佔率在九月份跌至一年多來的最低水平，突顯了該公司面臨來自規模較小的競爭對手以及需求疲軟的挑戰。

       So, high interest rates are derailing the ambitions of automakers to accelerate the shift to electric vehicles, and slow down the demand for EV battery. Although Electric vehicle sales are still growing strongly, the demand is not keeping up with the expectations of carmakers that have invested billions of dollars in the EV business. It seems that global economy recovery has a long way to go.

Note:

1. The eAxle systems are a compact, cost-attractive electric drive solution for battery-electric vehicles and hybrid applications. The electric motor, power electronics and transmission are combined in a compact unit directly powering the vehicle's axle. This aids in making electric drives less complex but simpler. Additionally, the powertrain becomes cheaper, more compact and more efficient. (https://www.bosch-mobility.com/en/solutions/power-electronics/eaxle/)

2. Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Limited, abbreviated as CATL (寧德時代), is a Chinese battery manufacturer and technology company founded in 2011 that specializes in the manufacturing of lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles and energy storage systems, as well as battery management systems. (Wikipedia)

Why is the American economy strong? To ask an expert: Will GDP positive for the fifth consecutive quarter (2/2)

Recently NHK News on-line reported the following:

アメリカ経済なぜ堅調？ 専門家に聞く GDPは5期連続プラスか (2/2)

2023年10月25日 6時42分

(continue)

Q2. 好調は今後も続く？

第4四半期（10月から12月）には景気は減速し、GDPの伸び率は前期比プラス1.5％になると予測している。逆風として注意すべきは、UAW＝全米自動車労働組合のストライキが長期化していることや、すでにかなり高水準の企業投資がこの水準を維持するとは考えにくいことが挙げられる。

Q3. 今後の金利引き上げは？

FRBは12月にもう1回利上げを行うと見ている。ただ、パウエル議長は10月19日の講演で、追加の利上げには「経済成長のさらなる加速やインフレ率の大幅な上昇リスクなどの追加的なデータが必要になる」と述べていて、非常に微妙な判断になると思う。

Q4. 利下げの時期は？

マーケットにとっては、金利の到達点よりも利下げの時期が最も重要になっている。私たちは「FRBは2024年6月に利下げを開始する」と見ている。これは、インフレ率が鈍化していくことに合わせた利下げ（＝中立金利の引き下げ）で、景気減速を受けた利下げにはならないだろう。

FRBが利下げに踏み切る際には、インフレが再燃するリスク、つまり、これまでの努力が水の泡になるリスクを強く意識するため、慎重に利下げのペースを判断していくとみている。

Q5. 長いスパンでみたアメリカ経済の懸念やリスクは？

アメリカ経済で興味深いのは、消費者と企業の収支バランスは、いずれもかなり健全なことだ。

一方、赤字が膨らんでいる政府の財政は問題となっている。これには、様々な要因があるが、社会保障を受け取る資格のある高齢者が増え続けていること、金利上昇による国債の利払い増加など構造的な問題を抱えている。

この傾向は来年も変わらない。経済状況にかかわらず、これほど大きな赤字を垂れ流していることは懸念材料で、景気後退に陥っても、財政支出を行う余力はあまりないということを示している。

Translation

(continue)

Q2. Would the good performance continue?

The economy was expected to slow down in the fourth quarter (October to December), with GDP growth expected to be 1.5% higher than the previous quarter. Headwinds that should be noted include the prolonged strike by the UAW (United Auto Workers Union) and the fact that it was unlikely that corporate investment, which was already at a fairly high level, could be maintained.

Q3. What about future interest rate hikes?

The Fed was expected to raise rates one more time in December. However, in his speech on October 19 Chairman Powell stated that any further interest rate hikes would require "additional data, including the risk of further acceleration of economic growth and the risk of a significant rise in the inflation rate." I thought it could be a delicate decision.

Q4. When would the time for interest rate cut?

For the market, the timing of the rate cut would be more important than the reaching point of interest rates. Our view was that the Fed could begin lowering interest rates in June 2024. The lowering of interest rates (= lowering the neutral interest rate) in line with the slowing of the inflation rate would not be a rate cut in response to an economic slowdown.

When the Federal Reserve decided to cut interest rates, it would be very conscious about the risk of a resurgence of inflation, or in other words, the risk that its efforts to date could be wasted, so we expected that the pace of rate cuts would be judged carefully.

Q5. What were your concerns and risks regarding the U.S. economy over the long term?

What was interesting about the American economy was that its balance in income and expenditure between consumers and businesses, respectively they were quite healthy.

On the other hand, the government's finances were becoming a problem due to the ballooning deficit. There were various factors contributing to this, including structural issues such as a continuing increase in the number of elderly people eligible to receive social security benefits, and an increase in interest payments on government bonds due to rising interest rates.

This trend could continue into next year as well. Regardless of the state of the economy, the fact that the country was running such a large deficit would be a cause for concern, as it showed that there was not much fiscal space left to carry out government spending even if it fell into a recession.

              So, some experts say that what is interesting about the American economy is that it has a good balance in income and expenditure between consumers and businesses respectively. On the other hand, the country’s large deficit can be a cause for concern, as not much room will be left for the government to carry out spending even if facing a recession again.

Why is the American economy strong? To ask an expert: Will GDP positive for the fifth consecutive quarter (1/2)

 

Recently NHK News on-line reported the following:

アメリカ経済なぜ堅調？ 専門家に聞く GDPは5期連続プラスか (1/2)

2023年10月25日 6時42分

アメリカのことし7月から9月までのGDP＝国内総生産が26日に発表されます。市場では、5期連続のプラス成長になるという見方が広がっていて、高い金利水準のもとでもアメリカ経済の堅調さが示される形になりそうです。

アメリカの7月から先月までのGDPは日本時間の26日午後9時半に発表されます。市場の予測では、前の3か月と比べた実質の伸び率は、年率に換算してプラス4.5％程度となっていて、5期連続のプラス成長になるとの見方が広がっています。

前の3か月の伸び率のプラス2.1％から拡大し、高い金利水準のもとでも経済の堅調さが示される形になりそうです。

要因について「バンク・オブ・アメリカ」のアディチャ・バベ シニアエコノミストは、9月の小売業の売上高が6か月連続で前の月を上回るなど個人消費が好調なことや、半導体などにおける政府の巨額の財政支出を受けて企業の設備投資が増加したことなどを指摘しています。

FRB＝連邦準備制度理事会のパウエル議長は、追加の利上げなどは今後の経済指標を見極めて慎重に判断していく考えを示していて、景気の現状と見通しに市場の関心がこれまで以上に集まりそうです。

【専門家Q＆A】

高い金利水準のもとでも、5期連続のプラス成長が予測されているアメリカ経済について「バンク・オブ・アメリカ」のアディチャ・バベ シニアエコノミスト（アメリカ経済担当）に聞きました。

Q1. 金融引き締め続けていてもなぜ堅調？

多くの要因が積み重なっている。FRBの急ピッチの利上げは、本来、住宅ローンの負担増加を通じ、個人消費にも影響を及ぼすはずだが、多くの世帯が低金利の時に固定金利でローンを組んだため、金利上昇の影響をほとんど受けていないことも、個人消費の好調さが続く要因となっている。

また、政府などの財政政策も予想以上の刺激となり、企業投資が大幅に押し上げられた形だ。労働の供給面では、在宅と出勤を組み合わせた働き方が可能になり、女性の労働参加率が予想以上に上昇している。

(to be continued)

Translation

America's GDP = Gross Domestic Product from July to September would be announced on the 26th. There was a widespread view in the market that this could be the fifth consecutive quarter of positive growth, and this was likely to demonstrate the robustness of the American economy even with high interest rates.

America's GDP from July to last month would be announced at 9:30 pm on the 26th Japan time. According to market forecasts, the real growth rate compared to the previous three months could be an annualized increase of around 4.5%, and there was a widespread view that this would be the fifth consecutive quarter of positive growth.

It would be an increase from the 2.1% growth rate seen in the previous three months, and was likely to show that the economy was strong even with high interest rates.

Regarding the factors, Aditya Bhave, senior economist at Bank of America, pointed out that consumer spending was strong, with retail sales in September exceeded the previous one for the sixth consecutive month, also that corporate capital investment in response to huge government spending on semiconductors, etc. had increased.

Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that he would make careful decisions regarding additional interest rate hikes etc. by looking at future economic indicators, and it was likely that the market would be more interested than ever in the economy’s current state and outlook.

[Expert Q&A]

We asked Aditya Bhave, Senior Economist (in charge of the US economy) at Bank of America, about the US economy, which was predicted to have positive growth for the fifth consecutive quarter, even with high interest rates.

Q1. Why the economy was strong despite continued monetary tightening?

Many factors came together. The Fed's rapid interest rate hikes should have had an impact on personal consumption by increasing the burden of home loans, but because many households took out fixed-rate loans when interest rates were low, they were largely unaffected by rising interest rates and this could be a factor in the continued strong performance of personal consumption.

In addition, the government's fiscal policies had provided more stimulus than expected, significantly boosting corporate investment. On the labor supply side, it had become possible to work from home and at work from office, and the labor force participation rate of women had increased beyond expectation.

(to be continued)

First time success in generating “plasma” necessary for nuclear fusion reaction : Experimental equipment in Ibaraki (2/2)

 

Recently NHK News on-line reported the following:

核融合反応に必要な“プラズマ”生成に初成功 茨城の実験装置 (2/2)

2023年10月24日 20時00分

(continue)

“プラズマ”とは

「プラズマ」は物質が数千度から数億度といった非常に高い温度まで加熱され、物質を構成する原子が原子核と電子に分かれて自由に飛び回っている状態です。

物質は温度が上がるにつれて固体から液体、液体から気体へと変化しますが、さらに気体から変化した状態が「プラズマ」で、「第4の状態」とも言われ、地球上でもいなづまやオーロラといった形で見ることができます。

「プラズマ」の状態では、原子核が秒速1000キロという超高速で動くことができ、そのスピードで原子核どうしがぶつかることで核融合反応が起きて大きなエネルギーが発生します。

1グラムの燃料から発生するエネルギーは、およそ8トンの石油を燃やしたときと同じだけの熱に相当します。

この核融合反応を連続させてエネルギーを取り出すには、1億度以上の超高温のプラズマを長い時間維持することが必要になるため、超高温の状態に耐えられる材料などの開発が進められています。

核融合 各国で開発競争が過熱

核融合は世界では1950年代から研究が始まりましたが、技術的な課題が多く、実現の目標時期は先延ばしを繰り返してきました。

しかし、ここ数年、アメリカを中心にベンチャー企業に巨額の投資が行われて開発が進められているほか、中国では国の研究機関が「プラズマ」を長時間閉じ込める実験に成功したと発表するなど、各国で開発競争が過熱しています。

こうした中、日本政府は、アメリカや中国を含む35の国と地域による大型国際プロジェクト「ITER計画」に参加しているほか、「JTー60SA」を活用したEUとの共同開発を進めています。

ことし4月には関連産業の振興を図る初めての政府戦略を策定していて、2050年ごろに国内での核融合発電の実現を目指すとしています。

専門家「まず動き出したことが大きな一歩」

核融合に関する文部科学省の審議会で委員を務める大阪大学大学院の上田良夫教授は「世界最大の装置であり、それだけ大きな成果を期待されているので、まず動き出したことが大きな一歩だ。日本の研究開発にとって非常に重要な研究のプラットホームが稼働し、よかったというのが率直な気持ちだ」と話しています。

そのうえで「中国、韓国だけでなく、アメリカやヨーロッパなどで研究が活発化して成果も出始めていて、日本だけが取り残されているという意識もあったが、本格的な実験の開始でやっと肩を並べられるか、将来的にそれを超える成果も期待できる。『これから日本も巻き返しに出るぞ』と、日本の研究者コミュニティーに大きな力を与える一歩にもなるのではないか」と話していました。

Translation

(continue)

What was “plasma”?

"Plasma" was a state in which matter would be heated to extremely high temperatures, ranging from several thousand degrees to hundreds of millions of degrees, and the atoms that made up that matter were separated into nuclei and electrons that flied around freely.

As the temperature rose, matter would change from solid to liquid, and from liquid to gas. The state that further changed from gas is the plasma which was also called the "fourth state," and on Earth it could also be seen in the form of lightning and aurora.

In the plasma state, atomic nuclei could move at extremely high speeds of 1,000 kilometers per second, and when the atomic nuclei collided with each other at that speed, a fusion reaction occurs and a large amount of energy would be generated.

One gram of fuel produced the same amount of energy as burning approximately 8 tons of oil.

In order to continue this nuclear fusion reaction and to extract energy, it was necessary to maintain ultra-high temperature plasma of over 100 million degrees Celsius for a long time, so the development of materials that could withstand ultra-high temperatures was progressing.

Nuclear fusion development competition heated up in various countries

Research into nuclear fusion began around the world in the 1950s, but due to many technical challenges, the target date for its realization had been repeatedly postponed.

However, in recent years, development had been progressing with huge investments being made in venture companies mainly in the United States. In China, a national research institute had announced that it has succeeded in an experiment to confine "plasma" for a long time.  Development competition was heating up in every country.

Among them, the Japanese government was participating in the ITER project, a large-scale international project involving 35 countries and regions including the United States and China, and a joint development with the EU that used "JT-60SA" was proceeding.

In April of this year, the first government strategy to promote related industries was formulated, with the goal of realizing domestic fusion power production by around 2050.

Expert: “Getting started is a big step.”

Professor Yoshio Ueda (上田良夫)of Osaka University Graduate School who was a member of the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology's council on nuclear fusion said, ``This is the world's largest device, and it is expected to produce great results, so it is a big step for Japan to get started. I honestly feel glad that a research platform that is extremely important for research and development is now operational."

On top of that he added, ``Research is becoming more active not only in China and South Korea, but also in the United States and Europe, and results are starting to appear, and there is a feeling that Japan is the only country left behind, will we finally be able to match them once we start full-scale experiments? We can expect even greater results in the future. As “From now on, Japan will make a comeback'', this could be a step that will give great power to the Japanese research community.

              So, if everything goes well, Japan’s goal in realizing domestic fusion power generation by around 2050 could be achieved. I am wondering how this new energy source will affect the oil industry and the coal industry globally eventually.

First time success in generating “plasma” necessary for nuclear fusion reaction: Experimental equipment in Ibaraki (1/2)

Recently NHK News on-line reported the following:

核融合反応に必要な “プラズマ”生成に初成功 茨城の実験装置 (1/2)

2023年10月24日 20時00分

国立研究開発法人の量子科学技術研究開発機構は、茨城県にある世界最大規模の核融合の実験装置で、核融合反応を起こすために必要な「プラズマ」と呼ばれる状態を初めて作り出すことに成功したと発表しました。次世代のエネルギー源と期待される技術の実現に向け本格的な実験が始まることになります。

核融合は太陽の内部で起きている反応で、人工的に起こすことで膨大なエネルギーを取り出せるほか、二酸化炭素や高レベル放射性廃棄物を出さない次世代のエネルギー源として期待されています。

茨城県那珂市にある「JTー60SA」は、日本とEUが650億円余りの予算をかけて共同で建設した実験装置で、核融合反応を起こすために必要な高温高圧の「プラズマ」と呼ばれる状態をドーナツ型の空洞の中で作り出し、一定時間維持する技術の実証を目指しています。

初めて“プラズマ”状態を作り出すことに成功

運営する量子科学技術研究開発機構によりますと、ことし5月から本格的に稼働し、内部を真空に近づけて電気を流すなどした結果、23日午後5時半ごろ、初めて「プラズマ」の状態を作り出すことに成功したということです。

核融合反応を起こすには「プラズマ」の温度を1億度以上に上げて、原子核どうしを秒速1000キロというスピードで衝突させる必要がありますが、現時点で作り出せる「プラズマ」の温度は1000万度ほどだということです。

機構は今後、装置の改良を重ね、5年ほどで1億度の「プラズマ」を100秒間維持することを目指すとしています。

そのうえで、実験で得られた知見を日本やEUなどが参加する大型国際プロジェクト「ITER計画」や、日本政府が2050年ごろの実現を目指す核融合発電の実現に役立てたいとしています。

(to be continued)

Translation

The National Institute for Quantum and Radiological Science and Technology as a national research and development agency had announced that, at the world's largest nuclear fusion experimental device located in Ibaraki Prefecture, it had succeeded for the first time in creating a state called "plasma" that was a prerequisite for fusion reactions to occur. Full-scale experiments would begin towards realizing the technology that was expected to be a next-generation energy source.

Nuclear fusion was a reaction that occurred inside the sun, and by creating it artificially, it was possible to extract a huge amount of energy, and it was expected to be a next-generation energy source that would not emit carbon dioxide or high-level radioactive waste.

JT-60SA, located in Naka City in Ibaraki Prefecture, was an experimental device jointly constructed by Japan and the EU with a budget of over 65 billion yen. It aimed to demonstrate a technology that created a so-called “plasma" state inside a donut-shaped cavity and maintained it for a certain period of time.

Succeeded in creating a “plasma” state for the first time

According to the Japan Institute for Quantum Science and Technology which operated this facility, it began full-scale operation in May this year, and because of making the interior close to a vacuum and with electricity passing through, it reached the state of "plasma" for the first time at around 5:30 p.m. on the 23^rd, meaning that it succeeded in creating a "plasma" state.

In order to cause a nuclear fusion reaction, while it was necessary to raise the temperature of the "plasma" to over 100 million degrees and cause the atomic nuclei to collide at a speed of 1000 kilometers per second, yet the temperature of "plasma" that could be created now was about 10 million degrees.

In the future, the organization would repeat making improvement to the device and aimed to maintain a 100 million degree "plasma" for 100 seconds in about five years.

In addition, it was hoped to make use of the knowledge gained from experiments in this ITER project which was a large-scale international joint effort participated by Japan, the EU, and others; and also the Japanese government hoped to use the technology to realize the generation nuclear fusion power with  the aim to achieve this by around 2050.

(to be continued)