2025年6月5日 星期四

美國政府信用評級再次調降後,美國股市、債券和美元均下跌

Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

US stocks, bonds and the dollar slip after the latest downgrade to the US government's credit rating

The Associated Press - Stan Choe

Mon, May 19, 2025 at 9:08 a.m. PDT 4 min read

NEW YORK (AP) — U.S. stocks, bonds and the value of the U.S. dollar are drifting lower on Monday following the latest reminder that the U.S government seems to be hurtling toward an unsustainable mountain of debt.

The S&P 500 was down 0.3% in midday trading after Moody’s Ratings became the last of the three major credit-rating agencies to say the U.S. federal government no longer deserves a top-tier “Aaa” rating. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 29 points, or 0.1%, as of 11:55 a.m. Eastern time, and the Nasdaq composite was 0.4% lower.

Moody’s pointed to how the U.S. government continues to borrow more and more money to pay for its expenses, with political bickering making it difficult to either rein in Washington’s spending or raise its revenue in order to get its ballooning debt under more control.

Nothing Moody’s said is new, of course, and critics have been railing against Washington’s inability to control its debt for many years. Standard & Poor’s lowered its credit rating for the U.S. government in 2011.

Because the issues are already so well known, investors have likely already accounted for them, according to Brian Rehling, head of global fixed income strategy and other analysts at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. They’re expecting “limited additional market impact” following the initial reactions to the Moody’s move.

Stocks and U.S. government bond prices at first fell sharply early in Monday's trading, but they trimmed their losses as the morning progressed.

A downgrade essentially warns investors globally not to lend to the U.S. government at such low interest rates, and the yield on the 10-year Treasury briefly jumped above 4.55% early Monday morning, up from 4.43% late Friday. That number shows how much in interest the U.S. government has to pay in order to borrow money for 10 years. But it later regressed to 4.49% as some more calm returned to the market.

The yield on a 30-year Treasury bond briefly leaped above 5% before receding, up from less than 4% in September.

The downgrade by Moody's comes ahead of a key period for Washington, where it’s set to debate potential cuts in taxes that could suck away more revenue, as well as the nation’s limit on how much it can borrow. And if Washington has to pay more in interest to borrow cash to pay its bills, that could filter out and cause interest rates to rise for U.S. households and businesses too, in everything from mortgage rates to auto loan rates to credit cards. That in turn could slow the economy.

The downgrade adds to a long list of concerns that have already weighed on the market. Chief among them is President Donald Trump’s trade war, which itself has forced investors globally to question whether the U.S. bond market and the U.S. dollar still deserve their reputations as some of the safest places to park cash during a crisis.

The U.S. economy seems to be holding up OK so far despite the pressures of tariffs, but big companies have been warning recently they’re uncertain about the future. Walmart, for example, said recently that it will likely have to raise prices because of tariffs. That caused Trump over the weekend to criticize Walmart and demand it and China “eat the tariffs.”

Walmart's stock fell 0.6% Monday.

Other big retailers are on the schedule to report their latest quarterly results this upcoming week, including Target, Home Depot, Lowe’s and TJX Cos.

On the winning end of Wall Street was Novavax, which rose 18.1% after it said U.S. regulators approved its COVID-19 vaccine under some conditions. The approval triggered a $175 million milestone payment under the company's collaboration agreement with Sanofi.

In stock markets abroad, indexes were mixed amid mostly modest movements across Europe and Asia.

Indexes were close to flat in both Shanghai and Hong Kong after the Chinese government said retail sales rose less in April than expected. Growth in industrial output slowed to 6.1% year-on-year from 7.7% in March.

In the foreign currency markets, the value of the U.S. dollar fell against everything from the euro to the Australian dollar.

Translation

美國政府信用評等再次調降後,美國股市、債券和美元均下跌

紐約(美聯社)美國股市、債券和美元價值週一均下跌,因為最新跡象表明美國政府似乎正陷入難以承受的巨額債務。

穆迪評級成為三大信用評等機構中最後一家表示美國聯邦政府不再值得獲得頂級「Aaa」評級的機構,此後標準普爾 500 指數午盤下跌 0.3%。截至美國東部時間上午 11:55,道瓊工業指數下跌 29 點,跌幅 0.1%,納斯達克指數下跌 0.4%

穆迪指出,美國政府不斷借入越來越多的資金來支付其開支,而政治爭吵使得政府既難以控制支出,也難以增加收入,令更好地控制不斷膨脹的債務。

當然,穆迪的說法並不新鮮,批評者多年來一直在抨擊華盛頓無力控制其債務。標準普爾於2011年下調了美國政府的信用評級。

Wells Fargo 投資研究所全球固定收益策略主管 Brian Rehling 和其他分析師表示,由於這些問題已經眾所周知,投資者可能已經考慮到了它們。他們預計,承接穆迪舉措的初步反應將「對市場產生有限的額外影響」。

週一早盤,股票和美國國債價格一度大幅下跌,但隨著上午交易的進行,跌幅有所縮小。

降級實質上是在警告全球投資者不要以如此低的利率向美國政府提供貸款,而 10 年期美國國債收益率在周一凌晨一度躍升至 4.55% 以上,高於上週五晚些時候的 4.43%。這個數字顯示了美國政府為了借錢10年需要支付多少利息。但隨著市場逐漸恢復平靜,比率隨後回落至 4.49%

30年期美國公債殖利率一度躍升至5%以上,隨後回落,9月時該殖利率不到4%

穆迪下調美國政府的評級正值關鍵時期,美國政府即將討論可能減少稅收的措施,這可能會減少更多收入,同時也將討論國家借款限額。如果華盛頓必須支付更多的利息來借入現金來償還債務,那麼這種利息可能會逐漸增加,並導致美國家庭和企業的利率上升,從抵押貸款利率到汽車貸款利率再到信用卡利率,無所不包。這反過來可能會減慢經濟發展。

這次降級進一步加劇了市場原本就存在的一系列擔憂。其中最主要的是特朗普總統的貿易戰,這場貿易戰本身迫使全球投資者質疑美國債券市場和美元是否仍然值得享有危機期間最安全的資金存放地點之一的聲譽。

儘管面臨關稅壓力,美國經濟迄今似乎保持良好,但大公司最近警告稱,他們對未來感到不確定。例如,沃爾瑪最近表示,由於關稅,它很可能不得不提高價格。這導致特朗普週末批評沃爾瑪並要求它一同和中國「承擔關稅」。

沃爾瑪股價週一下跌 0.6%

其他大型零售商也計劃於本周公布最新季度業績,其中包括 TargetHome DepotLowe’s TJX Cos

華爾街的贏家是 Novavax,該公司表示美國監管機構在某些條件下批准了其 COVID-19 疫苗,隨後股價上漲 18.1%。根據該公司與 Sanofi 的合作協議,此次批准將觸發 1.75 億美元的里程碑付款。

在國外股市,歐洲和亞洲股市大多波動較小,但指數漲跌互現。

中國政府表示,四月零售額增幅低於預期,上海和香港股市指數都接近持平。工業產出年增率從3月的7.7%放緩至6.1%

在外匯市場上,美元兌歐元、澳幣等所有貨幣的匯率均下跌。

       So, the US stocks market is only slightly affected after Moody’s Ratings becomes the last of the three major credit-rating agencies to say the U.S. federal government no longer deserves a top-tier “Aaa” rating on grounds that the U.S government seems to be facing an unsustainable mountain of debt. If Washington has to pay more interest to borrow cash to pay its bills, that could cause interest rates to rise for U.S. households and businesses and that in turn could slow down the economy. Apparently, the financial condition in the US is a concern for Trump.

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