隨著經濟逆風加劇，中國5月出廠物價通縮創22個月新高

 Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

China's factory-gate deflation worst in 22 months as economic headwinds mount

Reuters - Reporting by Qiaoyi Li, Tian Qiao and Ryan Woo

Updated Sun, June 8, 2025 at 7:49 p.m. PDT·2 min read

BEIJING (Reuters) -China's producer deflation deepened to its worst level in almost two years in May while consumer prices extended declines, as the economy grappled with trade tensions and a prolonged housing downturn.

Uncertainties from a tariff war with the United States and weak consumption at home have rattled sentiment and fuelled expectations of more policy stimulus to combat deflationary pressures.

The producer price index fell 3.3% in May from a year earlier, worse than a 2.7% decline in April and the deepest contraction in 22 months, National Bureau of Statistics data showed on Monday. That compared with an estimated 3.2% fall in a Reuters poll.

"China continues to face persistent deflationary pressure," said Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management.

"The price war in the auto sector is another signal of fierce competition driving prices lower. I am also concerned about the property prices which resumed their downward trend in recent months after a period of stabilization," he said.

With households cautious about spending due to income pressures, some companies have resorted to price discounts to boost sales, prompting the authorities to urge an end to the auto industry's bruising price wars.

Cooling factory activity also highlights the impact of U.S. tariffs on the world's largest manufacturing hub, dampening faster services growth as suspense lingers over the outcome of U.S.-China trade talks set to resume in London on Monday.

In a phone call on Thursday, U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping discussed trade tensions and critical minerals, leaving key issues for further negotiations.

The consumer price index dipped 0.1% last month from a year earlier, after falling by the same amount in April and slightly better than a Reuters poll forecast of a 0.2% decline.

CPI slid 0.2% on a monthly basis, compared with a 0.1% increase in April, and matched economists' predictions of a 0.2% decline.

Fragile domestic demand remains a drag on China's economy despite a recent flurry of policy support measures.

Retail sales growth slowed last month as spending continued to lag amid job insecurity and stagnant new home prices.

The core inflation measure, excluding volatile food and fuel prices, registered a 0.6% year-on-year rise, slightly faster than a 0.5% increase in April.

However, Zichun Huang, China Economist at Capital Economics, said the improvement in core prices looks "fragile", adding "we still think persistent overcapacity will keep China in deflation both this year and next."

Translation

隨著經濟逆風加劇，中國5月出廠物價通縮創22個月新高

北京（路透社）—因經濟受貿易緊張局勢和房地產市場長期低迷的影響, 中國5月份生產者物價通貨緊縮進一步加劇至近兩年來的最高水平，同時消費者物價指數延續跌勢。

中美關稅戰的不確定性以及國內消費疲軟，擾亂了市場情緒，並引發了人們預期有更多政策刺激措施出台以應對通縮壓力。

國家統計局週一公佈的數據顯示，5月生產者物價指數年減3.3%，降幅大於4月2.7%的降幅，創下22個月以來的最大降幅。相比之下，路透社調查的預估為下降3.2%。

Pinpoint Asset Management 首席經濟學家 Zhiwei Zhang 表示: 「中國繼續面臨持續的通貨緊縮壓力」。

他說: 「汽車業的價格戰是激烈競爭導致價格下跌的另一個信號。我還對房地產價格感到擔憂，房地產價格在經歷了一段時間的穩定後，近幾個月又恢復了下降趨勢」。

由於收入壓力，家庭支出趨於謹慎，一些公司採取了降價措施來刺激銷售，這促使當局敦促汽車行業停止激烈的價格戰。

工廠活動降溫也凸顯了美國關稅對全球最大製造業中心中國的影響，在周一於倫敦恢復的中美貿易談判結果懸念重重，抑制了服務業的快速增長。

週四，美國總統特朗普與中國國家主席習近平通電話，討論了貿易緊張局勢和關鍵礦產問題，並將關鍵問題留待進一步談判。

用去年同期比較, 上月消費者物價指數（CPI）下降0.1%，4 月也出現了同樣的跌幅，是略優於路透社調查預測的0.2%的降幅。

用每月比較, CPI上月下滑0.2%， 而四月則增加0.1%, 與經濟學家預測的下降0.2%相符。

儘管近期出台了一系列政策支持措施，但疲軟的國內需求仍拖累中國經濟。

由於就業不穩定和新房價停滯不前，消費支出持續滯後，上月零售成長放緩。

扣除波動較大的食品和燃料價格的核心通膨指標較去年同期上漲0.6%，略高於4月0.5%的漲幅。

然而，Capital Economics 的中國經濟學家 Zichun Huang 表示，核心價格的改善看起來“脆弱”，並補充道： “我們仍然認為持續的產能過剩將使中國今明兩年都陷入通貨緊縮。”

So, as the Chinese economy grapples with trade tensions and a prolonged housing downturn, China's producer deflation deepens to its worst level in almost two years in May while consumer prices continue to decline. Apparently, persistent overcapacity etc. will continue to keep China in a deflation mode in the near future.