Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:
China courts frazzled Europe as Western alliance wavers
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South China Morning Post
Sun, February 16, 2025 at 1:30 a.m. PST·6 min read
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The early signs are that after a stormy few years in the
EU-China relationship, some leaders in a Trump-battered Europe might be
receptive to Beijing's advances.
"This is a massive victory for China. It is just amazing what Trump has delivered to them, in less than a month," said one European diplomat, who was not authorised to speak publicly.
A month after he warned German companies that investing in China "is a decision involving great risk", Merz - who is favoured to be the next German chancellor - changed his tune in Munich.
A Trump-inspired detente in EU-China ties would mirror events in 2017, when the sides patched up their differences in response to their respective trade wars with Washington.
In particular, China's cosy ties with Russia since its invasion of Ukraine in 2022 have damaged nearly all areas of positive engagement with the EU.
They have also clashed extensively on trade, with Europe urging Beijing to take action to tackle industrial overcapacity, which looms as a major threat to European industries, from German carmakers to Danish wind turbine makers.
"Compared to eight years ago, when Trump was elected the first time, there's a much greater awareness in Europe of the threats China poses," said Kurt Volker, the former US ambassador to NATO, in a Munich interview.
"They have their own assessments, their own sense of the risks that China presents, and they are taking some of their own steps to deal with that. They wouldn't change that just because they don't like the way that the Trump administration speaks to them," Volker said.
Li, the seasoned academic, said the ball was in China's court to make Europe an offer it cannot refuse. This would represent a sea change in policy, given that Brussels officials regularly complain that Beijing has been in no mood to make concessions for several years. China "should be sensitive" to Europe's concerns about its hi-tech industrial prowess, he said.
But Europe, too, must be prepared to "turn the page" on some of its traditional gripes with China, including on human rights, "in light of the American authoritarian tendencies", if ties are to improve.
Translation
正當西方聯盟動搖之際,中國試圖取悅感到筋疲力盡的歐洲(2/2)
(繼續)
早期跡象表明,歐洲在經歷了中歐關係動盪的幾年之後,受到特朗普政策打擊的歐洲的一些領導人可能會接受北京的推展。
一位未獲授權公開發言的歐洲外交官表示: “這是中國的巨大勝利。特朗普在不到一個月的時間內給他們帶來的是令人驚嘆的。”
在經歷了特朗普上任第一個月的艱難時期後,鷹派的歐盟委員會主席馮德萊恩對華態度已明顯軟化。她在兩次重要演講中表示,在 “超競爭和超交易的地緣政治時代” ,還有空間與北京深化貿易聯繫、甚至 “達成協議” 。
一個月前,曾警告德國企業投資中國「是一個涉及巨大風險的決定」現有望成為下一任德國總理的 Merz 在慕尼黑改變了他的態度。
根據北京方面的版本,Merz對王毅表示: “德國堅定支持自由貿易,支持深化德中、歐中合作。”
特朗普引起的中歐關係緩和將與2017年的事件相似,當時雙方各自為應對與華盛頓的貿易戰而彌合分歧。
然而,自那以後,雙邊關係明顯下滑而造出障礙,如果北京方面想充分利用這一局勢,雙方可能要付出努力克服這些障礙。
特別是自 2022 年俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭以來,中國與俄羅斯的密切關係已經損害了中國與歐盟幾乎所有領域的積極接觸。
雙方也在貿易問題上發生廣泛衝突,歐洲敦促北京採取行動解決工業產能過剩問題,這個問題對從德國汽車製造商到丹麥風力渦輪機製造商的歐洲工業構成了重大威脅。
美國前駐北約大使 Kurt Volker 在慕尼黑接受採訪時表示: “與八年前特朗普首次當選時相比,歐洲對中國構成的威脅的認識有了更大的提高。”
Volker說: 「他們有自己的評估,對中國帶來的風險有自己的認識,他們正在採取一些自己的措施來應對。他們不會因為不喜歡特朗普政府的說話方式而改變這一點,」。
經驗豐富的李姓學者表示,球在中國手裡去向歐洲提出一份無法拒絕的提議。這將代表政策的重大轉變,因為布魯塞爾官員經常抱怨北京方面幾年來不願做出讓步。他說,中國「應該對歐洲對其高科技工業實力的擔憂保持敏感」。
李在慕尼黑接受採訪時表示:「中國應該向歐洲企業開放,不應該在一個領域接二連三地佔據主導地位。在經濟技術發展方面,雙方存在互補需求」。他還表示,就目前的情況來看,「歐洲並不認為中國是一個很好的機會」。
但如果歐洲想改善與中國的聯繫,亦必須就 “鑑於美國的獨裁傾向” ,做好 “翻開新篇章” 的準備,改變對中國的一些傳統上的不滿,包括人權問題。
李表示: “如果你這樣不滿,你應該有同樣的標準 - 看看中東”; “你們怎麼能只挑出新疆問題,而對世界其他地區發生的暴行視而不見呢?”
So, Vance
has conflicting views with European countries. Apparently, to Europe, the
security threat from Russia is a daily and real, while to the US, the threat is
not that immediate (at least they are separate by the Atlantic Ocean). When Vance
said that "The threat that I worry the most about vis-a-vis Europe is not
Russia. It's not China, it's not any other external actor. And what I worry
about is the threat from within", I don’t think Vance truly believes that.
When the US asks all allies to increase their defense budgets, and expresses worry
about the security of Greenland, I am wondering who are the enemies in their
mind?
Note:
1. Hypercompetitive geopolitics (超競爭地緣政治) in
current international relations refers to the fierce competition among
countries in the fields of economy, military and technology. This competition
is not limited to the traditional geopolitical scope, but also involves the
diverse challenges and opportunities brought about by globalization.
2.
Hyper-transactional geopolitics (超交易地緣政治) is a model of
international relations that emphasizes that interactions between countries are
based primarily on immediate transactions and exchange of interests rather than
long-term strategic cooperation.