中國飆升的排放量正在顛覆氣候政治

Recently The New York Times reported the following:

China’s Soaring Emissions Are Upending Climate Politics

The New York Times - By Brad Plumer and Mira Rojanasakul Nov. 19, 2024

For many years, wealthy places like the United States and Europe have had the biggest historical responsibility for global warming and have been tasked with taking the lead in stopping it.

China’s astonishing rise is upending that dynamic.

Over the past three decades, China has built more than 1,000 coal-fired power plants as its economy has grown more than 40-fold. The country has become by far the largest annual emitter of greenhouse gases in the world.

The United States has still pumped more total planet-warming pollution into the atmosphere since the 19th century, in part because the country has been burning coal, oil and natural gas for longer. But China is quickly catching up.

Last year, China for the first time passed Europe as the second-largest historical emitter, according to an analysis published on Tuesday by Carbon Brief, a climate research site.

When humans burn fossil fuels or cut down forests, the resulting carbon dioxide typically lingers in the atmosphere for hundreds of years, heating the planet all the while. That’s why historical emissions are often used as a gauge of responsibility for global warming.

China, for its part, has promised that its emissions will peak this decade and then start falling. The country is installing more wind turbines and solar panels than all other nations combined and leads the world in electric vehicle sales. But even with China’s shift to low-carbon energy, the Carbon Brief analysis found, the nation’s historical emissions are projected to approach those of the United States in the coming years.

A question of money

China’s historical responsibility for climate change has become a major point of contention in global climate politics.

This week, diplomats and leaders from nearly 200 countries have gathered at the United Nations climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan, to discuss how to raise the trillions of dollars that vulnerable nations will need to shift to clean energy and to cope with droughts, heat waves, floods and other hazards of a warming planet. One big question is where that money should come from.

Traditionally, the answer has been that wealthy, industrialized countries — like the United States, Japan, Canada, Australia and most of western Europe — should pay up.

Under a United Nations framework originally written in 1992, these developed countries have been called upon to provide financial aid. Countries like China, India and Saudi Arabia, as well as every nation in Africa, are classified as developing by that framework, and have not been required to chip in.

Today, however, many wealthy nations say this distinction no longer makes sense. Leaders from both the United States and European Union have called on China to contribute more climate finance to poorer countries as part of a final deal at Baku.

“An expanded donor base has been long warranted,” John Podesta, President Biden’s international climate adviser, said last week. “This is not 1992 in terms of the economic structure of the world.”

China, for its part, has argued that it has already provided roughly $24.5 billion in climate finance to other developing countries since 2016. But European officials have said that China is not subject to the same transparency requirements and have urged the country to formalize the aid they provide under U.N. agreements. So far, China has been reluctant to do that.

In a speech last week, Ding Xuexiang, China’s vice premier, said that wealthy countries taking the lead on providing financial aid was a “cornerstone” of global climate agreements.

At the same time, other world leaders have criticized wealthy emitters like the United States and Europe for falling behind on earlier promises for climate aid and have urged them not to point to China as an excuse for inaction.

“We cannot continue to hear the same promises as small islands suffer in the absence of real action from those most responsible for climate change,” said Prime Minister Gaston Browne of Antigua and Barbuda.

A different way to look at emissions

Total emissions aren’t the only metric to consider in issues of fairness. Another is emissions per person.

Because China has 1.4 billion people, its historical emissions per capita are still lower than those of the United States, European Union, Japan and Canada.

And while India is today one of the world’s largest consumers of fossil fuels, its historical emissions per person are relatively small. India is the most populous country in the world but still relatively poor, with tens of millions of people still lacking reliable access to electricity. India says it should be granted time to burn more fossil fuels as it develops.

At the same time, some affluent oil- and gas-producing nations, like Saudi Arabia and Qatar, have disproportionately large emissions per capita. American and European leaders have suggested that these countries, too, should be called on to contribute more climate finance.

How these disputes get resolved will go a long way toward determining whether negotiators from nearly 200 countries in Baku can agree to a new goal for delivering as much as $1.3 trillion per year in climate aid. Experts say it won’t be easy to strike a deal at the summit, which is scheduled to end on Friday.

Translation

中國飆升的排放量正在顛覆氣候政治

多年來，美國和歐洲等富裕國家對全球暖化負有最大的歷史責任，並肩負著帶頭阻止全球暖化的重任。

中國的驚人崛起正在顛覆這種態勢。

過去三十年來，中國興建了1,000多座燃煤電廠，經濟成長了40多倍。該國在年度上已以大距離成為世界上最大的溫室氣體排放國。

自 19 世紀以來，美國仍向大氣中排放了更多導致全球暖化的污染物，部分原因是該國燃燒煤炭、石油和天然氣的時間更長。但中國正迅速迎頭趕上。

根據氣候研究網站Carbon Brief週二發布的分析報告，去年，中國首次超過歐洲，成為史上第二大排放國。

當人類燃燒化石燃料或砍伐森林時，產生的二氧化碳通常會在大氣中停留數百年，同時使地球升溫。這就是為什麼歷史排放量經常被用來衡量全球暖化的責任。

中國則承諾其排放量將在本十年達到峰值，然後開始下降。該國安裝的風力渦輪機和太陽能電池板比所有其他國家的總和還要多，並且在電動車銷售方面處於世界領先地位。但Carbon Brief的分析發現，即使中國轉向低碳能源，該國的歷史排放量預計在未來幾年將接近美國。

錢的問題

中國對氣候變遷的歷史責任已成為全球氣候政治的主要爭論點。

本週，來自近 200 個國家的外交官和領導人齊聚阿塞拜疆Baku舉行的聯合國氣候峰會，討論如何籌集易受全球暖化影響的國家轉向清潔能源和應對乾旱、熱浪、洪水和地球變暖的其他危害所需的數萬億美元資金。一個大問題是這筆錢該從哪裡來。

傳統上，答案是富裕的工業化國家 - 如美國、日本、加拿大、澳洲和大多數西歐國家 - 應該付出洪水和地球變暖的其他危害所需的數萬億美元資金。

根據最初於 1992 年制定的聯合國框架，這些已開發國家被要求提供財政援助。中國、印度和沙地阿拉伯等國家以及非洲所有國家都被該框架歸類為發展中國家，因此不需要投入資金。

然而如今，許多富裕國家表示這種差異不再有意義。美國和歐盟領導人呼籲中國向較貧窮國家提供更多氣候資金，作為巴庫最終協議的一部分。

拜登總統的國際氣候顧問John Podesta上週表示：“長期以來，擴大捐助基礎是有必要的。” “從世界經濟結構來看，現在已經不是 1992 年了。”

中國則辯稱，自 2016 年以來，它已向其他發展中國家提供了約 245 億美元的氣候融資。但歐洲官員表示，中國不受同樣的透明度要求約束，並敦促該國將根據聯合國協議提供的援助正式化。到目前為止，中國一直不願意這麼做。

中國副總理Ding Xuexiang在上週的一次演講中表示，富裕國家帶頭提供財政援助是全球氣候協議的「基石」。

同時，其他世界領導人批評美國和歐洲等富裕排放國沒有兌現先前的氣候援助承諾，並敦促它們不要將中國作為不採取行動的藉口。

安提瓜和巴布達總理Gaston Browne表示：“當對氣候變遷負有最大責任的國家不採取實際行動而小島嶼受痛苦時，我們無法接受繼續聽到同樣的承諾。”

以不同的方式看待排放

在考慮公平問題時, 總排放量並不是唯一指標。另一個是人均排放量。

由於中國有14億人口，其歷史人均排放量仍低於美國、歐盟、日本和加拿大。

儘管印度如今是世界上最大的化石燃料消費國之一，但其人均歷史排放量相對較小。印度是世界上人口最多的國家，但仍相對貧窮，數千萬人仍缺乏可靠的電力供應。印度表示，隨著其發展，應該給予時間燃燒更多化石燃料。

與此同時，沙地阿拉伯和卡塔爾等一些富裕的石油和天然氣生產國的人均排放量卻高得不成比例。美國和歐洲領導人建議這些國家，也應該被要求貢獻更多的氣候資金。

這些爭端如何解決，將很大程幫助决定來自近 200 個國家在Baku的談判代表, 能否就每年提供高達 1.3 兆美元氣候援助的新目標達成一致。專家表示，在定於週五結束的峰會上達成協議並不容易。

              So, over the past three decades, China has built more than 1,000 coal-fired power plants as its economy has grown more than 40-fold. The country has become by far the largest annual emitter of greenhouse gases in the world. China, for its part, has argued that it has already provided roughly $24.5 billion in climate finance to other developing countries since 2016. But European officials have said that China is not subject to the same transparency requirements and have urged the country to formalize the aid they provide under U.N. agreements. So far, China has been reluctant to do that. China’s historical responsibility for climate change has become a major point of contention in global climate politics. Apparently, to achieve an agreement on how to combat global warming is not an easy task.