日本和中國在特朗普勝選前拋售美國國債

Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

Japan and China Dump US Treasuries Before Trump’s Victory

Masaki Kondo and Ruth Carson

Tue, November 19, 2024 at 12:46 p.m. GMT+8·2 min read

(Bloomberg) -- Two of the world’s biggest foreign holders of US government debt offloaded a pile of Treasuries in the third quarter as they rallied before the presidential election.

Japanese investors sold a record $61.9 billion of the securities in the three months ended Sept. 30, data from the US Department of the Treasury showed on Monday. Funds in China offloaded $51.3 billion during the same period, the second biggest sum on record.

The return on Treasuries peaked at a 2-1/2 year high in mid-September before the Republican Party gained control of both houses of Congress and the White House. The securities have since dropped almost 4% from that level on concern President-elect Donald Trump’s low-tax, high tariff policies will fuel inflation.

“It’s a cocktail of banks and pension selling ahead of the US elections in Japan — the risk of a Trump win and expectations of higher US yields bruised sentiment for the bonds,” said Shoki Omori, chief Japan desk strategist at Mizuho Securities Co. in Tokyo. “Even more so in China where geopolitical risk was a real concern, and that’s spurred investors to ditch Treasuries too.”

Japan’s selling may have been in part amplified by the nation’s intervention in the foreign-exchange market on July 11 and 12 when the Ministry of Finance sold dollars to buy the yen for a total of ¥5.53 trillion yen ($35.9 billion).

The sales by China may have also been skewed due to its use of custodial accounts. Funds in Belgium, seen as a home to such accounts for the Asian nation, bought a record $20.2 billion of Treasuries in September.

Japan and China still own $1.02 trillion and $731 billion worth of Treasuries respectively, underscoring their influence over the US debt market.

Uncertainty over Trump’s pick for US Treasury secretary is also adding to the upward pressure on US yields along with paring of Federal Reserve interest-rate cut bets in the face of a resilient economy.

“We’re confirming everything we’ve started to price in — that Trump’s likely going to have inflationary policies, tariffs, and that’s going to only lead to more Treasury sales from China and Japan,” said Nick Twidale, chief analyst at AT Global Markets in Sydney. “They’ve been good defensive measures by China and Japan and that’s probably going to continue.”

Translation

日本和中國在特朗普勝選前拋售美國國債

（彭博）—全球最大的兩個美國政府債務外國持有者在第三季度拋售了大量美國國債，而它們在總統大選之前反彈。

美國財政部週一的數據顯示，截至 9 月 30 日的三個月內，日本投資者出售了創紀錄的 619 億美元證券。同期，中國基金拋售 513 億美元，創史上第二高紀錄。

在共和黨控制國會參眾兩院和白宮之前，國債回報率在 9 月中旬達到了 2-1/2 年的最高點。由於擔心當選總統特朗普的低稅收、高關稅政策將加劇通貨膨脹，該證券自該水平以來已下跌近 4%。

Mizuho Securities Co.首席日本櫃檯策略師Shoki Omori表示，「這是日本在美國大選前, 銀行和退休金拋售的混合體 - 特朗普獲勝的風險和美國收益率上升的預期打擊了債券人氣」。 「在中國更是如此，地緣政治風險是一個真正令人擔憂的問題，這也促使投資者放棄持有國債」。

日本的拋售可能在一定程度上因該國7月11日至12日對外匯市場的干預而擴大，當時日本財務省出售美元以購買日元，總額為5.53萬億日元（359億美元）。

由於使用託管帳戶，中國的出售也可能出現偏差。被視為亞洲國家此類帳戶所在地的比利時基金 9 月購買了創紀錄的 202 億美元國債。

日本和中國仍分別持有價值1.02兆美元和7,310億美元的美國公債，凸顯了它們對美國債務市場的影響力。

特朗普所選出的美國財政部長的不確定性, 也加大了美國殖利率的上行壓力，同時因面對快速恢復原狀的經濟, 而令聯準會利率有可能會被削減的押注。

AT Global首席分析師Nick Twidale表示：「我們正在確認所有一切, 我們已經開始在算成本 - 特朗普可能會實施通膨政策和關稅，而這只會導致中國和日本出售更多國債」; 「中國和日本採取了很好的防禦措施，而且這種情況可能會持續下去」。

              So, two of the world’s biggest foreign holders of US government debt  have offloaded a large amount of Treasuries before the US presidential election. Japan and China still own $1.02 trillion and $731 billion worth of Treasuries respectively, showing their influence over the US debt market. Financial experts may already have made preparation for Trump’s inflationary policies and expect that this will lead to more Treasury sales from China and Japan.