US scientists discover huge amount of rare earth elements in coal ash waste: a treasure trove of clean energy?

Recently CNN.co.jp reported the following:

石炭灰の廃棄物に大量のレアアース、米科学者が発見　クリーンエネルギーの宝庫？

2024.12.07 Sat posted at 13:00 JST

（ＣＮＮ） 石炭を燃焼させた後に残る大量の石炭灰は池や埋め立て地に廃棄されており、水路に流出したり、土壌を汚染させたりする恐れがある。その一方で、こうした有害廃棄物は、クリーンエネルギーの推進に必要な希土類元素（レアアース）の宝庫となる可能性も秘めている。

テキサス大学が主導した最近の研究によると、科学者らは米国各地の発電所から発生した石炭灰を分析し、最大１１００万トンのレアアースを含有していることを発見した。これは米国国内の埋蔵量の８倍近い量で、金額にして約８４億ドル（約１兆２６００億円）に上る。

今回の発見は、新たな採掘の必要なしに米国内でレアアースを調達する大きなポテンシャルを秘めている――。論文を執筆したテキサス大学ジャクソン地球科学大学院の研究教授、ブリジェット・スキャンロン氏はそう語る。「まさに『ゴミを宝に』というスローガンの実例だ」「我々が試みているのは基本的に、サイクルを完結させて廃棄物を利用し、廃棄物の中にある資源を回収することだ」

こうしたいわゆるレアアースは、スカンジウムやネオジム、イットリウムといった地球のコアに存在する金属元素の集合体を指す。レアアースは電気自動車（ＥＶ）や太陽光パネル、風力タービンを含むクリーンテクノロジーにおいて重要な役割を果たす。

その名前とは裏腹に、レアアースは自然界では珍しくない。ただ、周囲の鉱石から抽出・分離するのは難しく、需要に供給が追いついていない状況だ。

世界が地球温暖化を招く化石燃料からの脱却を進める中、今後はさらに多くのレアアースが必要になる見通し。国際エネルギー機関（ＩＥＡ）によると、レアアースの需要は２０４０年までに最大で現在の７倍に跳ね上がるとみられている。

ただ、米国の供給量は依然として少なく、国内にある大規模なレアアース鉱山はカリフォルニア州のマウンテンパスのみだ。米国は現在レアアースの９５％以上を輸入しているが、その大部分は中国から来ており、サプライチェーン（供給網）や安全保障上の問題を突きつけている。

スキャンロン氏はＣＮＮの取材に、「我々は状況を改善する必要がある」と説明。このため、従来とは異なるレアアースの供給源に目を向ける動きが出ており、「こうした供給源の一つが石炭や石炭副産物だ」と指摘した。

地下の鉱床から直接採掘する場合に比べ、石炭灰はレアアースの濃度が比較的低い。長所は入手のしやすさで、米国では毎年約７０００万トンの石炭灰が発生している。

Translation

US scientists discover huge amounts of rare earth elements in coal ash waste: a treasure trove of clean energy?

(CNN) Large amounts of coal ash left over after burning coal were dumped in ponds and landfills, where they risked leaking into waterways and contaminating soil. On the other hand, this hazardous waste could potentially be a treasure trove of rare earth elements needed to promote clean energy.

In a recent study led by the University of Texas, scientists analyzed coal ash from power plants across the US and found that it contained up to 11 million tons of rare earth elements. This was nearly eight times the amount of rare earth elements in the US, worth about $8.4 billion (about 1.26 trillion yen).

The discovery this time noted that hiding in the US was a great potential in sourcing rare earths without the need for new mining, says Bridget Scanlon, a research professor at the University of Texas Jackson School of Geosciences and author of the paper. "It's a perfect example of the slogan 'Trash to Treasure'" ; " What we are trying to do is basically to close the cycle and to use waste, it's about recovering resources from waste."

These so-called rare earths were a collection of metallic elements found in the Earth's core, such as scandium, neodymium and yttrium. Rare earths played an important role in clean technologies, including electric vehicles (EVs), solar panels and wind turbines.

Contrary to their name, rare earths were not uncommon in nature. However, they were difficult to be extracted and separated from the ores around them, and supplies were not keeping up with demand.

As the world is moving away from fossil fuels that caused global warming, more rare earths were expected to be needed in the future. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), demand for rare earths was expected to jump by seven times higher by 2040.

However, supplies in the United States remained low, with the only large rare earth mine in the country being found in Mountain Pass, California. The US currently imported more than 95% of its rare earths, most of which come from China, posing supply chain and security challenges.

Scanlon told CNN in an interview that "We need to do better," and pointed out that's why there's been a push to look to diverge sources of rare earths, "and one of those sources is coal and coal by-products".

Coal ash had a relatively low concentration of rare earths compared to those extracted directly from underground deposits. The advantage would be its availability; the US produced about 70 million tons of coal ash each year.

So, large amounts of coal ash left over from coal burning could potentially be a treasure trove of rare earth elements needed to promote clean energy. I am interested to know whether people will invest in extracting rare metal from coal ash eventually.

Note:

Bridget R. Scanlon (born 1959) is an Irish and American hydrogeologist known for her work on groundwater depletion and groundwater recharging, and of the effects of climate change and land usage patterns on groundwater. She is a senior research scientist in the Bureau of Economic Geology at the University of Texas at Austin where she is head of the Sustainable Water Resources Program. (Wikipedia)

Dark chocolate may be effective in preventing type 2 diabetes: "Five pieces a week could reduce risk by 20%"

Recently CNN.co.jp reported the following:

ダークチョコに２型糖尿病予防の効果か　「週５片でリスク２割減」

2024.12.06 Fri posted at 17:34 JST

（ＣＮＮ） ダークチョコレートのかけらを週に５個以上食べれば、生活習慣病とされる２型糖尿病のリスクが２１％低減するとの研究結果が報告された。

米ハーバード公衆衛生大学院の博士課程で栄養学を研究する学生らのチームが４日、英医学誌ＢＭＵに発表した。チームは白人の成人から４年ごとに２５年間、食生活のアンケートを取った大規模な観察研究を基に、チョコ好きの１１万１０００人がダークチョコ、ミルクチョコをどのくらい食べていたかを調べた。

食事や生活習慣の要因を調整した結果、１オンス（約２８グラム）のチョコを週に５回以上食べていたグループは、残りのグループに比べて２型糖尿病にかかるリスクが１０％低いことが分かった。

さらにチョコの種類別に調べたところ、ミルクチョコを食べるグループは糖尿病リスクに変化がなく、長期的な体重増加がみられたのに対し、ダークチョコを食べるグループではリスクが２１％も下がったうえ、体重は増えていなかったという。

ダークチョコはミルクチョコに比べ、カカオの含有率が高い。カカオには抗酸化物質のフラボノイドが多く含まれ、これが糖尿病予防の効果をもたらしている可能性がある。

ただし専門家によれば、チョコには砂糖が入っていて、血糖値への影響が懸念される。最近の研究では、カカオを原料とする食品に重金属の鉛とカドミウムが含まれていると報告された。また昨年１２月の大規模な研究では、カカオの摂取で糖尿病のリスクは下がらないとの結果が出た。

とはいえ、研究チームの責任者は「チョコが好きな人ならば、ミルクでなくダークにするなどのちょっとした選択で健康への効果が期待できる」と話している。

Translation

Dark chocolate may be effective in preventing type 2 diabetes: "Five pieces a week could reduce risk by 20%"

 (CNN) Research results had been reported that eating five or more pieces of dark chocolate a week could reduce the risk of type 2 diabetes which was a lifestyle-related disease by 21%.

A team of doctoral students studying nutrition at the Harvard School of Public Health announced their findings in the British medical journal BMU on the 4th. Based on a large-scale observational study in which white adults were surveyed about their diet every four years for 25 years, the team investigated how much dark and milk chocolate the 111,000 chocolate lovers had eaten.

After adjusting for dietary and lifestyle factors, the group that ate one ounce (about 28 grams) of chocolate five or more times a week was found to have a 10% lower risk of developing type 2 diabetes compared to other groups.

Furthermore, when the type of chocolate was examined, the group that ate milk chocolate did not change their risk of diabetes and experienced long-term weight gain, while the group that ate dark chocolate saw a 21% reduction in risk and no weight gain.

Dark chocolate had a higher cacao content than milk chocolate. Cacao contained a lot of flavonoids, an antioxidant, which might have a preventive effect on diabetes.

However, experts said that chocolate contained sugar, which raised concerns about its effect on blood sugar levels. Recent studies had reported that foods made from cacao contain the heavy metals lead and cadmium. A large-scale study in December last year also found that consuming cacao did not reduce the risk of diabetes.

However, the head of the research team said, "If you like chocolate, you can expect health benefits by making small choices such as choosing dark chocolate instead of milk chocolate."

              So, according to this report, dark chocolate has a higher cacao content than milk chocolate. Cacao contains a lot of flavonoids, an antioxidant, which may have a preventive effect on diabetes. It seems that if you must buy chocolate, it is better to eat dark chocolate instead of milk chocolate for health reasons.

Note:

Flavonoids come from fruits, vegetables, tea, wine, seeds or roots. Although they are not considered vitamins, they are considered to have nutritional functions in biological reactions and were once called "vitamin P": for example, they have antioxidant or anti-inflammatory effects. It is also thought to resist or slow down the formation of tumors. Cocoa, especially some dark chocolate, contains the flavonoid epicatechin, whose antioxidant capacity is 2-3 times that of red wine or green tea. (Wikipedia)

中國開創先例禁止其他國家向美國出售商品

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

China Sets Precedent by Banning Others From Selling Goods to US

Bloomberg News

Thu, December 5, 2024 at 10:33 p.m. PST·4 min read

(Bloomberg) -- Beijing has set out to extend its domestic laws across international borders with a ban on selling some goods to the US that applies to companies both inside and outside China.

The first use of new export control rules attempts to replicate the extraterritorial reach of US and European sanctions by covering Chinese products or goods with Chinese parts in them. In an announcement this week, China declared it’s banning both the sale of dual-use items to the American military and also the export to the US of materials such as gallium and germanium.

Companies and people overseas will be subject to those restrictions, the Ministry of Commerce said Tuesday. “Any organization or individual from any country or region that violates the above provisions and transfers or provides relevant dual-use items originating in the People’s Republic of China to organizations or individuals in the United States will be held accountable according to law.”

The decision marks the first time China is employing new controls that extend to products with both civilian and military uses. The rules went into effect on Sunday and allow for application similar to the US Export Administration Regulations, according to a report from the law firm Covington & Burling, which noted that there are “few details” on when this extraterritoriality would be invoked.

The precedent-setting move amounts to an escalation with the US weeks before President-elect Donald Trump takes office. China is the top global supplier of dozens of critical minerals, and concerns about its dominance have been mounting in Washington since Beijing placed initial controls on exports of gallium and germanium last year.

“I’m not aware of another such case under the current regulatory regime,” said Cory Combs, an associate director at research firm Trivium China. “For companies, the extraterritorial application means they shouldn’t bank on any loopholes to keep supplies flowing. Simply put, companies using the affected inputs need to find alternative supplies ASAP.”

The new provisions build on earlier language in the 2020 export control legislation, which also said that the law applied to individuals or organizations inside or outside of China, according to Combs.

In recent years the Chinese government has been strengthening its toolbox to push back against US sanctions and trade controls, creating the “Unreliable Entity List” and “Export Control Law” in 2020 and the “Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law” in 2021. It also passed a National Security Law for Hong Kong which claimed jurisdiction over acts committed outside China’s territories.

But while the new formulations in the rules are concerning, “we don’t yet have a clear consensus view on how far Beijing might go to investigate or punish third countries suspected of prohibited re-exports,” Combs said.

“The language primarily serves to close the potential loophole for domestic firms to try to reroute exports as opposed to seeking a new avenue to punish third countries,” he said.

What Bloomberg Economics Says...

“Beijing’s new export controls will likely fall short of Washington’s in international surveillance, compliance and enforcement. Beijing’s statement vaguely threatens countries that help the US evade the controls.”

 — Gerard DiPippo, Maeva Cousin and Nicole Gorton-Caratelli. For full analysis, click here

 

However, Beijing looks to be starting to use the unreliable entity list to look at actions taken outside China, with the government investigating the owner of the Tommy Hilfiger and Calvin Klein clothing brands on suspicion that it’s boycotting cotton from the Xinjiang region.

If found to be discriminating against Xinjiang-related products, the company could suffer various punishments including being prevented from doing business in China.

In response to US criticism of China’s curbs on exports of gallium and other materials, Ministry of Commerce spokesman He Yadong defended his nation’s actions, saying it was the “US which has abused export control measures” and accusing the US of “economic coercion that seriously harmed international supply chain stability.”

“China’s move is in line with domestic law and is aimed at safeguarding the country’s security and interests,” he said this week.

Exports of gallium and germanium to the US had already dropped off to zero this year, Chinese customs data shows.

Translation

中國開創先例禁止其他國家向美國出售商品

（彭博）—北京已著手將其國內法律擴展越過國際邊界，禁止向美國出售某些商品，該禁令適用於中國境內外的公司。

這首次使用的新出口管制規則, 試圖透過複製美國和歐洲制裁方法, 去涵蓋中國產品或含有中國零件的商品。在本週的聲明中，中國宣布禁止向美國軍方出售可兩用的物品，也禁止向美國出口鎵和鍺等材料。

中國商務部周二表示，海外公司和個人將受到這些限制。 “任何國家或地區的組織或個人違反上述規定，向美國境內的組織或個人轉讓或提供原產於中華人民共和國的相關兩用物項，將依法追究責任。”

這項決定標誌著中國首次採用新的管制措施，並將其範圍擴大到民用和軍用產品。根據 Covington & Burling 律師事務所的一份報告，這些規則於週日生效，並允許類似於美國出口管理條例的應用，該報告指出，關於什麼情况引用這種治外法權的「細節是很少」。

這一開創先例的舉動, 相當於當選總統特朗普就職前幾週把與美國的緊張局勢升級。中國是數十種關鍵礦產的全球最大供應商，自去年北京對鎵和鍺的出口實施初步控制以來，華盛頓對中國主導地位的擔憂不斷加劇。

研究公司 Trivium China 的副總監 Cory Combs 表示：「我不知道在現行監管制度下, 還有沒有其他此類案例」。 「對公司來說，域外適用意味著他們不應該利用任何漏洞來保持供應的流動。簡而言之，使用受影響供應的公司需要盡快找到替代供應」。

Combs表示，新規定以 2020 年出口管制立法中的早期用辭為基礎，該立法亦表示該法律適用於中國境內外的個人或組織。

近年來，中國政府不斷強化反擊美國制裁和貿易管制的工具箱，於2020年制定了“不可靠實體清單”和“出口管制法”，並於2021年制定了“反外國制裁法”。它也通過了香港的《國家安全法》，聲稱對在中國境外進行的行為擁有管治權。

儘管規則中的新表述令人擔憂，但Combs表示，“對於在多大程度上, 北京可能調查或懲罰涉嫌被禁止再出口的第三國，我們尚未有清晰一致的看法。”

他說:「這種措辭主要是為了堵住國內企業試圖改變出口路線的潛在漏洞，而不是尋求懲罰第三國的新途徑」。

 彭博經濟學 是怎麼說…

 「北京的新出口管制在國際監督、依從規條和執行方面可能會達不到華盛頓的水準。北京的聲明含糊地威脅了那些幫助美國逃避管制的國家」。

 — Gerard DiPippo, Maeva Cousin 和 Nicole Gorton-Caratelli, 如需完整分析，請點擊。

然而，北京似乎開始使用不可靠實體清單來審視在中國境外進行的行動，政府正在調查 Tommy Hilfiger 和 Calvin Klein 服裝品牌的所有者，懷疑他們抵制來自新疆地區的棉花。

如果被發現歧視涉疆產品，該公司可能會受到各種處罰，包括被禁止在中國開展業務。

針對美國批評中國限制鎵等材料出口，商務部發言人He Yadong為中國的行為辯護，稱是“美國濫用出口管制措施”，並指責美國“實施經濟脅迫，嚴重損害國際供應鏈的穩定性”。

他本週表示:「中方此舉符合國內法，旨在維護國家安全和利益」。

中國海關數據顯示，今年對美國的鎵和鍺出口已降至零。

So, Beijing has set out to extend its domestic laws across international borders with a ban on selling some goods to the US that applies to companies both inside and outside China. Apparently, one solution for foreign companies inside China, such as Tommy Hilfiger and Calvin Klein suspected of boycotting cotton from the Xinjiang region, is to abandon their markets in China.

谷歌推出人工智能體可顯著做好15 日天氣預報 (2/2)

Recently The New York Times reported the following:

Google Introduces A.I. Agent That Aces 15-Day Weather Forecasts (2/2)

GenCast, from the company’s DeepMind division, outperformed the world’s best predictions of deadly storms as well as everyday weather.

By William J. Broad

Dec. 4, 2024

(continue)

Dr. Lam of DeepMind noted that GenCast’s generative skills were rooted in factual data gathered from nature rather than the internet, notorious for its confusing mix of facts, biases and fallacies. “We have a ground truth,” he said of its dependence on natural phenomena. “We have a reality check.”

The new agent’s forecasts are probabilistic — like those on the weather apps of smartphones. For instance, GenCast can give a range of percentages for the likelihood of rain in a specific region on a given day.

In contrast, its DeepMind predecessor, GraphCast, offers a single forecast for a particular time and location. Known as deterministic, its method is essentially a best guess that gives no indication of the prediction’s uncertainty.

Probabilistic forecasts are considered more nuanced and sophisticated than the deterministic kind, and are more difficult to create. Typically, a GenCast forecast draws from a set of 50 or more predictions that produce its range of probabilities.

Despite all the effort that goes into those calculations, Dr. Price of DeepMind said, the new agent can generate a 15-day forecast in minutes compared with hours for a supercomputer. That can make its projections much timelier — an advantage in tracking fast-moving storms.

GenCast, the team says, can predict with great accuracy the paths of hurricanes, which annually can take thousands of lives and rack up hundreds of billions of dollars in property damage. The Nature paper said comparative testing showed that its hurricane track predictions consistently outdid those of the European center.

Dr. Emanuel of M.I.T. said the DeepMind team failed to mention that its new agent provides little information about hurricane intensity.

Dr. Price, the paper’s lead author, concurred. He said the problem lay in training data limitations on hurricane wind speed. The weather team, he added, was confident it could devise a solution.

GenCast will most likely complement current methods rather than replace them, Dr. Emanuel argued. Each type, he said, has its own strengths and weaknesses in predicting the riot of variable phenomena that constitute the weather.

“The status quo isn’t going to disappear,” Dr. Emanuel said. “Perhaps the two of them working together will prove to be the best way forward.”

For its part, the DeepMind team acknowledged its heavy reliance on the conventional world of weather readings  — noting, for instance, how its A.I. training data comes from the giant European weather archive. Its computations also start with a snapshot of the world’s current weather, what the team calls  initial conditions.

The team hopes that other weather experts will test its new technology. Dr. Price said that the DeepMind team would share online its A.I. agent and underlying computer code.

He added that GenCast’s weather predictions would soon be posted publicly on Google’s Earth Engine and Big Query, giving scientists access to the new forecasts.

“We’re excited for the community to use and build on our research,” Dr. Price said.

Dr. Chantry of the European center said Google and DeepMind might have hidden their A.I. advance behind a wall of corporate secrecy, using it “to make a better weather forecast for their own apps and telling no one how they did it.”

Instead, he added, the emerging field has embraced a public openness that’s helping “lots and lots of people engage in this revolution.

Translation

谷歌推出人工智能體可顯著做好15 日天氣預報 (2/2)

該公司 DeepMind 部門的 GenCast 的表現優於世界上對致命風暴和日常天氣的最佳預測。

（繼續）

DeepMind 的 Lam 博士指出，GenCast 的生成技能植根於從大自然而不是互聯網收集的實數，眾人皆知互聯網是由實數、偏見和謬誤的撲朔迷離混合而成。談到它對自然現象的依賴時他說道: 「我們有地面上的實况」; 「我們進行了實質檢驗」。

新人工智能體的預測是機率性的,  就像智慧型手機天氣應用程式上的預測一樣。例如，GenCast 可以給出特定日期特定地區下雨可能性的百分比範圍。

相較之下，其 DeepMind 的前身 GraphCast 提供針對特定時間和地點的單一預測。其方法被稱為確定性方法，本質上是一種最佳猜測，不會顯示預測的不確定性。

機率預測被認為比確定性預測更加細緻和複雜，並且更難創建。通常，GenCast 預測會從一組 50 個或更多的預測中提取其機率範圍。

DeepMind 的 Price 博士表示，已在這些計算中付出了很多努力，新人工智能體可以在幾分鐘內產生 15 天的預測，相比超級電腦需要幾個小時。這可以使其預測更加及時 - 這在追蹤快速移動的風暴方面是一個優勢。

團隊表示，GenCast 可以非常準確地預測颶風的路徑，颶風每年都會奪走數千人的生命，並造成數千億美元的財產損失。 《自然》雜誌的論文稱，比較測試表明，其颶風路徑預測始終優於歐洲中心的預測。

麻省理工學院的Emanuel博士表示 DeepMind 團隊沒有提及其新人工智能體只提供很少有關颶風強度的資訊。

論文的主要作者Price博士對此表示同意。他說，問題在於颶風風速的訓練資料限制。他補充說，氣象團隊有信心找到解決方案。

Emanuel 博士認為，GenCast 很可能會補充而不是取代目前的方法。他說，各類型在預測構成天氣的各種紛亂變化現象方面都有自己的優點和缺點。

Emanuel博士說: 「現有的局面不會消失」。 「也許雙方合作將被證明是向前進步的最佳方法」。

就 DeepMind 團隊而言，它承認自己嚴重依賴傳統的天氣讀數 - 例如，人工智能的訓練資料是如何來自龐大的歐洲天氣檔案。它的計算也是從世界目前天氣的簡介開始，該團隊稱之為開啟狀況。

該團隊希望其他氣象專家能夠測試其新技術。 Price 博士表示，DeepMind 團隊將在網路上分享其 人工智能體和其底層電腦代碼。

他補充說，GenCast 的天氣預報很快就會在Google的 Earth Engine 和 Big Query 上公開發佈，讓科學家能夠獲得新的預報。

Price博士說: 「我們很高興本群體能夠使用和發展我們的研究」。

歐洲中心的Chantry博士表示，谷歌和 DeepMind 可能隱藏了他們的人工智能的進展於其公司保密牆後面，利用它 “把自己的應用程式做出更好的天氣預報，及不告訴任何人他們是如何做到的。”

反而，他補充說，這個新興領域已經接受了公眾開放，它正在幫助「很多人參與這場變革」。

              So, we all know that since the 1960s, the chaotic nature of Earth’s atmosphere would put a limit on how far into the future forecasts may be. Since the early 2000s, the great difficulty of this task keeps reliable forecasts restricted to about a week. Now a new artificial intelligence tool has broken the barriers and achieved 15-day weather forecasts. It outperforms the world’s best forecasts in speed in tracking deadly storms. This new agent can generate a 15-day forecast in minutes compared with hours for a supercomputer. As its projections are much timelier, it has an advantage in tracking fast-moving storms. This is good news to everyone in the field of weather forecasting.

谷歌推出人工智能體可顯著做好15 日天氣預報 (1/2)

Recently The New York Times reported the following:

Google Introduces A.I. Agent That Aces 15-Day Weather Forecasts (1/2)

GenCast, from the company’s DeepMind division, outperformed the world’s best predictions of deadly storms as well as everyday weather.

By William J. Broad

Dec. 4, 2024

In the 1960s, weather scientists found that the chaotic nature of Earth’s atmosphere would put a limit on how far into the future their forecasts might peer. Two weeks seemed to be the limit. Still, by the early 2000s, the great difficulty of the undertaking kept reliable forecasts restricted to about a week.

Now, a new artificial intelligence tool from DeepMind, a Google company in London that develops A.I. applications, has smashed through the old barriers and achieved what its makers call unmatched skill and speed in devising 15-day weather forecasts. They report in the journal Nature on Wednesday that their new model can, among other things, outperform the world’s best forecasts meant to track deadly storms and save lives.

“It’s a big deal,” said Kerry Emanuel, a professor emeritus of atmospheric science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who was not involved in the DeepMind research. “It’s an important step forward.”

In 2019, Dr. Emanuel and six other experts, writing in the Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, argued that advancing the development of reliable forecasts to a length of 15 days from 10 days would have “enormous socioeconomic benefits” by helping the public avoid the worst effects of extreme weather.

Ilan Price, the new paper’s lead author and a senior research scientist at DeepMind, described the new A.I. agent, which the team calls GenCast, as much faster than traditional methods. “And it’s more accurate,” he added.

He and his colleagues found that GenCast ran circles around DeepMind’s previous A.I. weather program, which debuted in late 2023 with reliable 10-day forecasts. Rémi Lam, the lead scientist on that project and one of a dozen co-authors on the new paper, described the company’s weather team as having made surprisingly fast progress.

“I’m a little bit reluctant to say it, but it’s like we’ve made decades worth of improvements in one year,” he said in an interview. “We’re seeing really, really rapid progress.”

The world leader in atmospheric prediction is the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Comparative tests regularly show that its projections exceed all others in accuracy.

DeepMind tested its new A.I. program against the center’s Ensemble Prediction System — a service that 35 nations rely on to produce their own weather forecasts. The team compared how the 15-day forecasts of both systems performed in predicting a designated set of 1,320 global wind speeds, temperatures and other atmospheric features.

The Nature report said the new agent outdid the center’s forecasts 97.2 percent of time. The A.I. achievement, the authors wrote, “helps open the next chapter in operational weather forecasting.”

Matthew Chantry, an A.I. specialist at the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, said his agency was already adopting some of its features.

“That’s how highly we think of it,” he said. Machine learning in general, Dr. Chantry added, was accelerating human bids to outmaneuver some of nature’s deadliest threats.

DeepMind’s weather advance comes two months after other A.I. researchers in the company shared the Nobel Prize for chemistry. The scientific news forms a bright counterpoint to public fears of A.I. stealing jobs and driving humans to the edge of obsolescence.

The natural chaos in Earth’s atmosphere means that all weather forecasts, including the two-week variety, grow less reliable as they peer further into the future. Even so, AccuWeather offers 90-day forecasts. And the Old Farmer’s Almanac says it can gaze ahead 60 days.

DeepMind backs its 15-day declaration with pages of evidence laid out in one of the world’s leading science journals, Nature. So too, Google posted an online blog that details the A.I. advance.

The new GenCast agent takes a radically different approach from mainstream forecasting, which uses room-size supercomputers that turn millions of global observations and calculations into predictions. Instead, the DeepMind agent runs on smaller machines and studies the atmospheric patterns of the past to learn the subtle dynamics that result in the planet’s weather.

The DeepMind team trained GenCast on a massive archive of weather data curated by the European center. The training period went from 1979 to 2018, or 40 years. The team then tested how well the agent could predict 2019’s weather.

Such training empowers all types of generative A.I. — the kind that’s creative. Mimicking how humans learn, it spots patterns in mountains of data and then makes new, original material that has similar characteristics.

(to be continued)

Translation

谷歌推出人工智能體可顯著做好15 日天氣預報 (1/2)

該公司 DeepMind 部門的 GenCast 的表現優於世界上對致命風暴和日常天氣的最佳預測。

2024 年 12 月 4 日

在1960 年代，氣象科學家發現，地球大氣層的混亂性質限制了他們對未來的預測。兩週似乎是極限了。儘管如此，到了 2000 年代初，這項工作的巨大困難, 令可得到可靠的預測僅限於一周左右。

現在，一家位於倫敦的Google的發展應用程式公司DeepMind的一種新式人工智能工具已經衝破了這舊的障礙，並在設計 15 天天氣預報方面, 實現了其製造商所説的無與倫比技能和速度。他們週三在《自然》雜誌上報道說，他們的新模型, 包括可以超越世界上其他最佳預測, 用以追踪致命風暴和拯救生命。

麻省理工學院大氣科學名譽教授Kerry Emanuel說:「這是一件大事」，他沒有參與 DeepMind 研究。 “這是向前邁出的重要一步。”

2019 年，Emanuel博士和其他六位專家在《大氣科學雜誌》上撰文指出，將可靠預報的時間從 10 天推長到 15 天，會有「巨大的社會經濟效益」。可以幫助公眾避免極端天氣的最嚴重影響。

這新論文的主要作者、DeepMind 的高級研究科學家 Ilan Price 描述了這新的人工智能。團隊將這新人工智能體稱為 GenCast, 稱它比傳統方法快得多。 他補充道:“而且它更準確”。

他和他的同事發現 GenCast 比之前的DeepMind人工智能更好、更快。該天氣計劃，於 2023 年底首次推出，提供可靠的 10 天預報。該計劃的首席科學家、新論文的十幾位合著者之一Rémi Lam表示，該公司的氣象團隊取得了令人驚訝的快速進展。

他在接受採訪時說:「我有點不願意這麼說，但這就像我們在一年內取得了幾十年的進步」。 “我們看到了非常非常快的進展。”

大氣預報領域的世界領導者是歐洲中期天氣預報中心。比較測試經常表明，它的預測在準確性上超過了所有其他預測。

DeepMind 測試了其新的人工智能, 比對該中心的集合預測系統 - 35 個國家依靠該服務來產生自己的天氣預報。該團隊比較了兩個系統的 15 天預測, 即去預測一組指定的 1,320 個全球風速、溫度和其他大氣方面的特徵表現。

《自然》雜誌的報告稱，新工智能體在時間上裡超越了中心的預測97.2%。作者寫道人, 工智能成就 “有助於開啟業務天氣預報的新篇章。”

人工智能歐洲中期天氣預報中心的專家Matthew Chantry表示，他的機構已經採用了其中的一些功能。

他說:“這就是我們對它的高度評價”。Chantry博士補充說，總的來說，機器學習正在加速人類戰勝一些自然界最致命威脅的努力。

DeepMind 的天氣預報進展, 是在該公司的其他研究人員分享了諾貝爾化學獎後兩個月出現。這科學新知與大眾對恐懼人工智能會竊取工, 作並將人類推向淘汰的邊緣形成了鮮明的對比。

地球大氣層的自然混亂意味著所有天氣預報，包括兩週的天氣預報，隨著對未來的預測越來越長，可靠性變得越來越低。即便如此，AccuWeather 仍提供 90 天的天氣預報。 《老農年鑑》說它可以展望未來 60 天。

DeepMind 在世界領先的科學期刊之一《自然》上提供了數頁證據來支持其為期 15 天的聲明。同樣，谷歌發布了一個線上博客，詳細介紹了人工智能的進步。

新的 GenCast 採用了與主流預測完全不同的方法，主流預測使用房間大小的超級計算機，將數百萬個全球觀測和計算轉化為預測。相反，DeepMind 新的智能體在較小的機器上運行，研究過去的大氣模式，以了解導致地球天氣的微妙動態。

DeepMind 團隊使用歐洲中心整理的大量天氣資料檔案對 GenCast 進行了培訓。訓練時間從1979年到2018年，即共40年。然後，團隊測試了該智能體預測 2019 年天氣的能力。

這種培訓可以增強所有類型的生成人工智能的能力 - 即有創意的那種。它模仿人類的學習方式，在海量資料中發現模式，然後製作具有相似特徵的新的原創材料。

（待續）

Note:

In English, if someone runs rings around you, they are very much better, faster, or more successful at something than you are.

中國禁止向美國出口鎵、鍺、銻以應對晶片製裁 (2/2)

Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

China bans exports to US of gallium, germanium, antimony in response to chip sanctions (2/2)

 AP - Elaine Kurtenbach

Tue, December 3, 2024 at 8:13 p.m. GMT+8·4 min read

(continue)

After the U.S. side announced it was adding 140 companies to a so-called “entity list” subject to strict export controls, China’s Commerce Ministry protested and said it would act to protect China’s “rights and interests.” Nearly all of the companies affected by Washington's latest trade restrictions are based in China, though some are Chinese-owned businesses in Japan, South Korea and Singapore.

Both governments say their respective export controls are needed for national security.

China's government has been frustrated by U.S. curbs on access to advanced processor chips and other technology on security grounds but had been cautious in retaliating, possibly to avoid disrupting China’s fledgling developers of chips, artificial intelligence and other technology.

Various Chinese industry associations issued statements protesting the U.S. move to limit access to advanced chip-making technology.

The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said it opposed using national security as a grounds for export controls, “abuse of export control measures, and the malicious blockade and suppression of China.”

“Such behavior seriously violates the laws of the market economy and the principle of fair competition, undermines the international economic and trade order, disrupts the stability of the global industrial chain, and ultimately harms the interests of all countries,” it said in a statement.

The China Semiconductor Industry Association issued a similar statement, adding that such restrictions were disrupting supply chains and inflating costs for American companies.

“U.S. chip products are no longer safe and reliable. China’s related industries will have to be cautious in purchasing U.S. chips,” it said.

The U.S. gets about half its supply of both gallium and germanium metals directly from China, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. China exported about 23 metric tons (25 tons) of gallium in 2022 and produces about 600 metric tons (660 tons) of germanium per year.

The U.S. has deposits of such minerals but has not been mining them, though some projects underway are exploring ways to tap those resources.

The export restrictions have had a mixed impact on prices for those critical minerals, with the price of antimony more than doubling this year to over $25,000 per ton. Prices for gallium, germanium and graphite also have mostly risen.

Translation

中國禁止向美國出口鎵、鍺、銻以應對晶片製裁 (2/2)

（繼續）

美方宣布將140家企業列入受嚴格出口管制的所謂「實體清單」後，中國商務部提出抗議，並表示將採取行動保護中國的「權益」。幾乎所有受到華盛頓最新貿易限制影響的公司都位於中國，儘管其中一些是日本、韓國和新加坡的中資企業。

兩國政府均表示，為了自身國家安全，需要實施出口管制。

中國政府對美國出於安全原因限制先進處理器晶片和其他技術的取得感到沮喪，但在報復方面一直持謹慎態度，可能是為了避免擾亂中國剛起步的晶片、人工智能和其他技術開發商。

中國多個行業協會發表聲明，抗議美國限制先進晶片製造技術的舉動。

中國汽車工業協會表示，反對以國家安全為理由實施出口管制，「濫用出口管制措施，惡意封鎖打壓中國」。

它在一份聲明中說: 「這種行為嚴重違反市場經濟法則和公平競爭原則，破壞國際經貿秩序，擾亂全球產業鏈穩定，最終損害各國利益」。

中國半導體行業協會 也發表了類似聲明，並補充說，此類限制正在擾亂供應鏈並增加美國公司的成本。

它說:“美國晶片產品不再安全可靠。中國相關產業在購買美國晶片時必須謹慎。”

根據美國地質調查局的數據，美國約一半的鎵和鍺金屬供應直接來自中國。 2022年，中國出口了約23公噸（25噸）鎵，每年生產約600公噸（660噸）鍺。

美國擁有此類礦藏，但尚未開採，儘管一些正在進行的項目正在探索開採這些資源的方法。

出口限制對這些關鍵礦物的價格產生了複雜的影響，今年銻的價格翻了一倍多，達到每噸 25,000 美元以上。鎵、鍺和石墨的價格也大多上漲。

So, China announces that it is banning exports of gallium, germanium, antimony and other key high-tech materials to the United States that have potential military applications. My feeling is that the banning is gesture for China to show its anger and would not affect the US very much.

中國禁止向美國出口鎵、鍺、銻以應對晶片製裁 (1/2)

Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

China bans exports to US of gallium, germanium, antimony in response to chip sanctions (1/2)

Elaine Kurtenbach

Tue, December 3, 2024 at 8:13 p.m. GMT+8·4 min read

BANGKOK (AP) — China announced Tuesday it is banning exports to the United States of gallium, germanium, antimony and other key high-tech materials with potential military applications, as a general principle, lashing back at U.S. limits on semiconductor-related exports.

The Chinese Commerce Ministry announced the move after the Washington expanded its list of Chinese companies subject to export controls on computer chip-making equipment, software and high-bandwidth memory chips. Such chips are needed for advanced applications.

The ratcheting up of trade restrictions comes as President-elect Donald Trump has been threatening to sharply raise tariffs on imports from China and other countries, potentially intensifying simmering tensions over trade and technology.

China's Foreign Ministry also issued a vehement reproof.

“China has lodged stern protests with the U.S. for its update of the semiconductor export control measures, sanctions against Chinese companies, and malicious suppression of China’s technological progress," Lin Jian, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson, said in a routine briefing Tuesday.

"I want to reiterate that China firmly opposes the U.S. overstretching the concept of national security, abuse of export control measures, and illegal unilateral sanctions and long-arm jurisdiction against Chinese companies,” Lin said.

The minerals sourced in China are used in computer chips, cars and other products

China said in July 2023 it would require exporters to apply for licenses to send to the U.S. the strategically important materials such as gallium and germanium. In August, the Chinese Commerce Ministry said it would restrict exports of antimony, which is used in a wide range of products from batteries to weapons, and impose tighter controls on exports of graphite.

Such minerals are considered critical for national security. China is a major producer of antimony, which is used in flame retardants, batteries, night-vision goggles and nuclear weapon production, according to a 2021 U.S. International Trade Commission report.

The limits announced by Beijing on Tuesday also include exports of super-hard materials, such as diamonds and other synthetic materials that are not compressible and extremely dense. They are used in many industrial areas such as cutting tools, disc brakes and protective coatings. The licensing requirements that China announced in August also covered smelting and separation technology and machinery and other items related to such super-hard materials.

China is the biggest global source of gallium and germanium, which are produced in small amounts but are needed to make computer chips for mobile phones, cars and other products, as well as solar panels and military technology.

China says it's protecting itself from US trade restrictions

(to be continued)

Translation

中國禁止向美國出口鎵、鍺、銻以應對晶片製裁 (1/2)

曼谷（美聯社）—中國週二宣布，作為一般原則，禁止向美國出口鎵、鍺、銻和其他具有潛在軍事用途的關鍵高科技材料，並對美國對半導體相關出口的限制進行回擊。

在華盛頓擴大了受電腦晶片製造設備、軟體和高頻寬記憶體晶片出口管制的中國公司名單之後，中國商務部宣布了這項決定。高級應用是需要此類晶片。

貿易限制加大的來臨，正值當選總統特朗普一直威脅要大幅提高來自中國和其他國家的進口關稅，這可能會加劇貿易和技術方面的緊張局勢。

中國外交部對限制也予以嚴厲譴責。

中國外交部發言人Lin Jian週二在例行記者會上表示，中方已就美方更新半導體出口管制措施、制裁中國企業、惡意打壓中國科技進步提出嚴正抗議。

Lin説: 「我想重申，中方堅決反對美方過度伸延國家安全理念，濫用出口管制措施，對中國企業實施非法單邊制裁和長臂管轄」。

來自中國的礦物用於電腦晶片、汽車和其他產品

中國在 2023 年 7 月表示，將要求出口商申請許可證, 才能向美國運送鎵和鍺等具有戰略意義的材料。 8月，中國商務部表示將限制銻的出口，銻用於從電池到武器等多種產品，並對石墨的出口實施更嚴格的控制。

此類礦物被認為對國家安全至關重要。根據美國國際貿易委員會 2021 年的報告，中國是銻的主要生產國，銻用於阻燃劑、電池、夜視鏡和核武的生產。

北京周二宣布的限制還包括超硬材料的出口，例如鑽石和其他不可壓縮且密度極高的合成材料。它們用於許多工業領域，例如切削工具、碟式煞車和防護塗層。中國8月宣布的許可要求也涵蓋了與此類超硬材料相關的冶煉和分離技術以及機械等項目。

中國是全球最大的鎵和鍺生產國，這些金屬的產量雖小，但在製造電腦晶片供手機, 汽車和其他產品，以及太陽能板和軍事技術上是須要使用它。

中國表示正在保護自己免受美國貿易限制的影響

（待續）

Note:

1. High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) (高頻寬記憶) is a computer memory interface for 3D-stacked synchronous dynamic random-access memory (SDRAM) initially from Samsung, AMD and SK Hynix. It is used in conjunction with high-performance graphics accelerators, network devices, high-performance datacenter AI ASICs, as on-package cache in CPUs and on-package RAM in upcoming CPUs, and FPGAs and in some supercomputers. (Wikipedia)

特朗普要求立即釋放 10 月 7 日的人質，否則將“會惹上大麻煩”

Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

Trump demands immediate release of Oct. 7 hostages, says otherwise there will be 'HELL TO PAY'

Jill Colvin

Tue, December 3, 2024 at 3:26 a.m. GMT+8·1 min read

The Associated Press

NEW YORK (AP) — President-elect Donald Trump is demanding the immediate release of the Israeli hostages still being held in Gaza, saying that if they are not freed before he is sworn into office there will be “HELL TO PAY."

“Please let this TRUTH serve to represent that if the hostages are not released prior to January 20, 2025, the date that I proudly assume Office as President of the United States, there will be ALL HELL TO PAY in the Middle East, and for those in charge who perpetrated these atrocities against Humanity," Trump wrote in a post on his Truth Social site.

He added that, "Those responsible will be hit harder than anybody has been hit in the long and storied History of the United States of America. RELEASE THE HOSTAGES NOW!”

The war in Gaza began when Hamas-led militants stormed into southern Israel, killing some 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and taking around 250 people hostage on Oct. 7, 2023.

Trump’s threat came hours after the Israeli government confirmed the death of Omer Neutra, a dual US--Israeli citizen, whose body is still believed to be held by Hamas in Gaza, according to the Israeli government.

Days earlier, Hamas released a hostage video of Edan Alexander, who was serving in the Israeli military when he was taken by Hamas to Gaza. Filmed under apparent duress, Alexander calls on Trump to work to negotiate for his freedom and that of the remaining Hamas hostages.

Translation

紐約（美聯社）- 當選總統特朗普要求立即釋放仍被扣押在加沙的以色列人質，並表示如果在他宣誓就職之前不釋放他們，將會“會惹上大麻煩”。

特朗普在他的真相 社交 網站上發文寫道:「請讓這個真相 表明，如果人質在 2025 年 1 月 20 日（我自豪地就任美國總統的日期）之前沒有獲釋，中東將會惹上大麻煩, 包括那些負責對人類犯下這暴行的人」。

他補充說，“那些負有責任的人將受到比美利堅合眾國悠久而傳奇的歷史上任何人所受的打擊更嚴重的打擊。現在就釋放人質！”

2023 年 10 月 7 日，哈馬斯領導的武裝分子闖入以色列南部，造成約 1,200 人死亡，其中大部分是平民，並劫持約 250 人作為人質，加薩戰爭由此開始。

特朗普發出威脅的幾個小時前，以色列政府證實了美國和以色列雙重公民Omer Neutra的死亡，據以色列政府稱，據信其屍體仍被哈馬斯扣押在加沙。

幾天前，哈馬斯發布了一段Edan Alexander被扣為人質的視頻， Alexander在加沙被哈馬斯劫持時正在以色列軍隊服役。Alexander在明顯的脅迫下拍攝，呼籲特朗普努力談判，爭取他和哈馬斯剩餘人質的自由。

So, Donald Trump is demanding Hamas the immediate release of the Israeli hostages, I am wondering whether his threat will have any real impact regarding the early release of hostages.

特朗普威脅稱，如果金磚國家採取削弱美元的行動，將對其徵收100%的關稅

Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

Trump threatens 100% tariff on the BRIC bloc of nations if they act to undermine US dollar

Fatima Hussein

Sun, December 1, 2024 at 3:09 a.m. GMT+8·2 min read

The Associated Press

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. (AP) — President-elect Donald Trump on Saturday threatened 100% tariffs against a bloc of nine nations if they act to undermine the U.S. dollar.

His threat was directed at countries in the so-called BRIC alliance, which consists of Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates.

Turkey, Azerbaijan and Malaysia have applied to become members and several other countries have expressed interest in joining.

While the U.S. dollar is by far the most-used currency in global business and has survived past challenges to its preeminence, members of the alliance and other developing nations say they are fed up with America’s dominance of the global financial system.

Trump, in a Truth Social post, said: “We require a commitment from these Countries that they will neither create a new BRICS Currency, nor back any other Currency to replace the mighty U.S. Dollar or, they will face 100% Tariffs, and should expect to say goodbye to selling into the wonderful U.S. Economy."

At a summit of BRIC nations in October, Russian President Vladimir Putin accused the U.S. of “weaponizing” the dollar and described it as a “big mistake.”

“It’s not us who refuse to use the dollar,” Putin said at the time. “But if they don’t let us work, what can we do? We are forced to search for alternatives.”

Russia has specifically pushed for the creation of a new payment system that would offer an alternative to the global bank messaging network, SWIFT, and allow Moscow to dodge Western sanctions and trade with partners.

Trump said there is "no chance" BRIC will replace the U.S. dollar in global trade and any country that tries to make that happen "should wave goodbye to America.”

Translation

特朗普威脅稱，如果金磚國家採取削弱美元的行動，將對其徵收100%的關稅

佛羅裡達州西棕櫚灘（美聯社）- 當選總統特朗普週六威脅稱，如果金磚九國家採取行動削弱美元，將對其徵收 100% 的關稅。

他的威脅是針對所謂的金磚國家聯盟的國家，該聯盟由巴西、俄羅斯、印度、中國、南非、埃及、衣索比亞、伊朗和阿拉伯聯合酋長國組成。

土耳其、亞塞拜然和馬來西亞已申請成為會員，其他幾個國家也表示有興趣加入。

儘管美元是迄今為止全球商業中使用最廣泛的貨幣，並且在過去對其卓越地位的挑戰中生存下來，但聯盟成員和其他發展中國家表示，他們厭倦了美國在全球金融體系中的主導地位。

特朗普在《真相社會》貼文中表示：「我們要求這些國家承諾，他們不會創造新的金磚國家貨幣，也不會支持任何其他貨幣來取代強大的美元，否則，他們將面臨100%的關稅，並且應該預計將告別美好的美國經濟。

在十月的金磚四國峰會上，俄羅斯總統普京指責美國將美元“武器化”，並稱這是一個“大錯誤”。

普京當時表示:「不是我們拒絕使用美元」; 「但是如果他們不讓我們運作，我們能做什麼呢？我們被迫尋找替代方案」。

俄羅斯特別推動創建一個新的支付系統，該系統將提供全球銀行資訊網路 SWIFT 的替代方案，並使莫斯科能夠避開西方制裁並與合作夥伴進行貿易。

特朗普表示，金磚國家「不可能」在全球貿易中取代美元，任何試圖實現這一目標的國家「都應該向美國揮手告別」。

So, President-elect Donald Trump has threatened 100% tariffs against a bloc of nine nations if they act to undermine the U.S. dollar. I am wondering how BRIC alliance will response to this warning from Trump. I think tariffs war is a double-edged sword that can cut both ways.

Suspected Alzheimer's disease "Identified by simple questions" - Keio University, etc.

Recently NHK News on-line reported the following:

アルツハイマー病の疑い “簡単な質問で見分け” 慶応大など

2024年11月24日 5時12分

認知症の原因となるアルツハイマー病の疑いがある人を、簡単な質問をするだけで見分けられる手法を開発したと慶応大学などのグループが発表し早期の治療につながると期待されています。

アルツハイマー病は脳に異常なたんぱく質がたまって神経細胞が壊れ、脳の機能が低下すると考えられていますが、去年承認されたこのたんぱく質を取り除く治療薬はアルツハイマー型の軽度の認知症やその手前の段階の軽度認知障害の患者が対象で、早期発見の重要性が高まっています。

慶応大学の伊東大介特任教授らのグループは患者と健康な人あわせて155人に簡単な質問をし、その答えやふるまいで病気を見分けられないか実験しました。

その結果、「現在、困っていることがあるか」、「3か月以内で気になるニュースがあるか」という質問にいずれも「ない」と答え、「現在、楽しみはあるか」という質問に具体的に回答した人の83％がアルツハイマー病の精密検査で陽性だったということです。

また、質問に直接答えず、付き添いの家族らに助けを求めて振り返る動作をした人の87％が陽性で、研究グループは質問への回答やふるまいをみれば病気の疑いがあるか高い精度で見分けられるとしています。

伊東特任教授は「今回の手法は問診の一環として実施できるので医師の負担も少ない。また、医師でない高齢者施設のスタッフなどでもできるので、早期発見につなげてほしい」と話してました。

Translation

Suspected Alzheimer's disease "Identified by simple questions" - Keio University, etc.

A group including Keio University announced that they had developed a method of by simply asking simple questions to identify people suspected of having Alzheimer's disease that caused dementia, and it was expected that this method could lead to early treatment.

Alzheimer's disease had been thought to be caused by the accumulation of abnormal proteins in the brain, which destroyed nerve cells and reduced brain function, but a treatment drug that could remove this protein approved last year was intended for patients with earlier stage mild Alzheimer's-type dementia, and also with mild cognitive impairment, therefore early detection of the disease was becoming increasingly important.

A group including Professor Daisuke Ito (伊東大介) of Keio University asked simple questions to 155 patients and healthy people, and conducted an experiment to see if the disease could be identified from their answers and behavior.

The results showed that 83% of people who answered "no" to the questions "Is there anything that is troubling you at present?" and "Is there any news that has concerned you in the last three months?”; also, those who gave affirmative answers to the question "Are you feeling delight now? " were later tested positive for Alzheimer's in subsequent thorough checkups.

In addition, 87% of people who did not answer the questions directly, but instead turned around to ask for help from accompanying family members, were tested positive. The research group believed that by looking at responses to questions and behavior, it was possible to tell with a high degree of accuracy in confirming whether someone had the suspected disease.

Specially Appointed Professor Ito said, "Since this method can be carried out as part of the medical interview, it puts less burden on doctors. What's more, it can be carried out by non-doctors, such as staff at elderly care facilities, so we hope it will lead to early detection."

So, a research group in Japan announces that they have developed a method in by asking people simple questions to identify those suspected of having Alzheimer's disease. Because it is easy to do, it can identity the disease early. This will lead to early treatments by a drug approved last year intended for patients with mild Alzheimer's-type dementia etc.

中國飆升的排放量正在顛覆氣候政治

Recently The New York Times reported the following:

China’s Soaring Emissions Are Upending Climate Politics

The New York Times - By Brad Plumer and Mira Rojanasakul Nov. 19, 2024

For many years, wealthy places like the United States and Europe have had the biggest historical responsibility for global warming and have been tasked with taking the lead in stopping it.

China’s astonishing rise is upending that dynamic.

Over the past three decades, China has built more than 1,000 coal-fired power plants as its economy has grown more than 40-fold. The country has become by far the largest annual emitter of greenhouse gases in the world.

The United States has still pumped more total planet-warming pollution into the atmosphere since the 19th century, in part because the country has been burning coal, oil and natural gas for longer. But China is quickly catching up.

Last year, China for the first time passed Europe as the second-largest historical emitter, according to an analysis published on Tuesday by Carbon Brief, a climate research site.

When humans burn fossil fuels or cut down forests, the resulting carbon dioxide typically lingers in the atmosphere for hundreds of years, heating the planet all the while. That’s why historical emissions are often used as a gauge of responsibility for global warming.

China, for its part, has promised that its emissions will peak this decade and then start falling. The country is installing more wind turbines and solar panels than all other nations combined and leads the world in electric vehicle sales. But even with China’s shift to low-carbon energy, the Carbon Brief analysis found, the nation’s historical emissions are projected to approach those of the United States in the coming years.

A question of money

China’s historical responsibility for climate change has become a major point of contention in global climate politics.

This week, diplomats and leaders from nearly 200 countries have gathered at the United Nations climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan, to discuss how to raise the trillions of dollars that vulnerable nations will need to shift to clean energy and to cope with droughts, heat waves, floods and other hazards of a warming planet. One big question is where that money should come from.

Traditionally, the answer has been that wealthy, industrialized countries — like the United States, Japan, Canada, Australia and most of western Europe — should pay up.

Under a United Nations framework originally written in 1992, these developed countries have been called upon to provide financial aid. Countries like China, India and Saudi Arabia, as well as every nation in Africa, are classified as developing by that framework, and have not been required to chip in.

Today, however, many wealthy nations say this distinction no longer makes sense. Leaders from both the United States and European Union have called on China to contribute more climate finance to poorer countries as part of a final deal at Baku.

“An expanded donor base has been long warranted,” John Podesta, President Biden’s international climate adviser, said last week. “This is not 1992 in terms of the economic structure of the world.”

China, for its part, has argued that it has already provided roughly $24.5 billion in climate finance to other developing countries since 2016. But European officials have said that China is not subject to the same transparency requirements and have urged the country to formalize the aid they provide under U.N. agreements. So far, China has been reluctant to do that.

In a speech last week, Ding Xuexiang, China’s vice premier, said that wealthy countries taking the lead on providing financial aid was a “cornerstone” of global climate agreements.

At the same time, other world leaders have criticized wealthy emitters like the United States and Europe for falling behind on earlier promises for climate aid and have urged them not to point to China as an excuse for inaction.

“We cannot continue to hear the same promises as small islands suffer in the absence of real action from those most responsible for climate change,” said Prime Minister Gaston Browne of Antigua and Barbuda.

A different way to look at emissions

Total emissions aren’t the only metric to consider in issues of fairness. Another is emissions per person.

Because China has 1.4 billion people, its historical emissions per capita are still lower than those of the United States, European Union, Japan and Canada.

And while India is today one of the world’s largest consumers of fossil fuels, its historical emissions per person are relatively small. India is the most populous country in the world but still relatively poor, with tens of millions of people still lacking reliable access to electricity. India says it should be granted time to burn more fossil fuels as it develops.

At the same time, some affluent oil- and gas-producing nations, like Saudi Arabia and Qatar, have disproportionately large emissions per capita. American and European leaders have suggested that these countries, too, should be called on to contribute more climate finance.

How these disputes get resolved will go a long way toward determining whether negotiators from nearly 200 countries in Baku can agree to a new goal for delivering as much as $1.3 trillion per year in climate aid. Experts say it won’t be easy to strike a deal at the summit, which is scheduled to end on Friday.

Translation

中國飆升的排放量正在顛覆氣候政治

多年來，美國和歐洲等富裕國家對全球暖化負有最大的歷史責任，並肩負著帶頭阻止全球暖化的重任。

中國的驚人崛起正在顛覆這種態勢。

過去三十年來，中國興建了1,000多座燃煤電廠，經濟成長了40多倍。該國在年度上已以大距離成為世界上最大的溫室氣體排放國。

自 19 世紀以來，美國仍向大氣中排放了更多導致全球暖化的污染物，部分原因是該國燃燒煤炭、石油和天然氣的時間更長。但中國正迅速迎頭趕上。

根據氣候研究網站Carbon Brief週二發布的分析報告，去年，中國首次超過歐洲，成為史上第二大排放國。

當人類燃燒化石燃料或砍伐森林時，產生的二氧化碳通常會在大氣中停留數百年，同時使地球升溫。這就是為什麼歷史排放量經常被用來衡量全球暖化的責任。

中國則承諾其排放量將在本十年達到峰值，然後開始下降。該國安裝的風力渦輪機和太陽能電池板比所有其他國家的總和還要多，並且在電動車銷售方面處於世界領先地位。但Carbon Brief的分析發現，即使中國轉向低碳能源，該國的歷史排放量預計在未來幾年將接近美國。

錢的問題

中國對氣候變遷的歷史責任已成為全球氣候政治的主要爭論點。

本週，來自近 200 個國家的外交官和領導人齊聚阿塞拜疆Baku舉行的聯合國氣候峰會，討論如何籌集易受全球暖化影響的國家轉向清潔能源和應對乾旱、熱浪、洪水和地球變暖的其他危害所需的數萬億美元資金。一個大問題是這筆錢該從哪裡來。

傳統上，答案是富裕的工業化國家 - 如美國、日本、加拿大、澳洲和大多數西歐國家 - 應該付出洪水和地球變暖的其他危害所需的數萬億美元資金。

根據最初於 1992 年制定的聯合國框架，這些已開發國家被要求提供財政援助。中國、印度和沙地阿拉伯等國家以及非洲所有國家都被該框架歸類為發展中國家，因此不需要投入資金。

然而如今，許多富裕國家表示這種差異不再有意義。美國和歐盟領導人呼籲中國向較貧窮國家提供更多氣候資金，作為巴庫最終協議的一部分。

拜登總統的國際氣候顧問John Podesta上週表示：“長期以來，擴大捐助基礎是有必要的。” “從世界經濟結構來看，現在已經不是 1992 年了。”

中國則辯稱，自 2016 年以來，它已向其他發展中國家提供了約 245 億美元的氣候融資。但歐洲官員表示，中國不受同樣的透明度要求約束，並敦促該國將根據聯合國協議提供的援助正式化。到目前為止，中國一直不願意這麼做。

中國副總理Ding Xuexiang在上週的一次演講中表示，富裕國家帶頭提供財政援助是全球氣候協議的「基石」。

同時，其他世界領導人批評美國和歐洲等富裕排放國沒有兌現先前的氣候援助承諾，並敦促它們不要將中國作為不採取行動的藉口。

安提瓜和巴布達總理Gaston Browne表示：“當對氣候變遷負有最大責任的國家不採取實際行動而小島嶼受痛苦時，我們無法接受繼續聽到同樣的承諾。”

以不同的方式看待排放

在考慮公平問題時, 總排放量並不是唯一指標。另一個是人均排放量。

由於中國有14億人口，其歷史人均排放量仍低於美國、歐盟、日本和加拿大。

儘管印度如今是世界上最大的化石燃料消費國之一，但其人均歷史排放量相對較小。印度是世界上人口最多的國家，但仍相對貧窮，數千萬人仍缺乏可靠的電力供應。印度表示，隨著其發展，應該給予時間燃燒更多化石燃料。

與此同時，沙地阿拉伯和卡塔爾等一些富裕的石油和天然氣生產國的人均排放量卻高得不成比例。美國和歐洲領導人建議這些國家，也應該被要求貢獻更多的氣候資金。

這些爭端如何解決，將很大程幫助决定來自近 200 個國家在Baku的談判代表, 能否就每年提供高達 1.3 兆美元氣候援助的新目標達成一致。專家表示，在定於週五結束的峰會上達成協議並不容易。

              So, over the past three decades, China has built more than 1,000 coal-fired power plants as its economy has grown more than 40-fold. The country has become by far the largest annual emitter of greenhouse gases in the world. China, for its part, has argued that it has already provided roughly $24.5 billion in climate finance to other developing countries since 2016. But European officials have said that China is not subject to the same transparency requirements and have urged the country to formalize the aid they provide under U.N. agreements. So far, China has been reluctant to do that. China’s historical responsibility for climate change has become a major point of contention in global climate politics. Apparently, to achieve an agreement on how to combat global warming is not an easy task.