中國發出信號 - 結束 2 萬億美元的在美國上市推動力(2 of 2)

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

China Signals End to $2 Trillion U.S. Listings Juggernaut (2 of 2)

(continue)

The goal was to create an environment which would enable Chinese tech firms to list successfully at home, and be less reliant on U.S. capital. This need became all the more pressing as tensions between Beijing and Washington increased during the latter part of former President Donald Trump’s presidency. Trump introduced tough new rules that mean Chinese firms may be kicked off exchanges in a few years’ time if they refuse to hand over financial information to U.S. regulators.

While secondary listings in Hong Kong picked up, Chinese firms still preferred New York, where it takes weeks rather than months to process an IPO application. China’s strict capital controls meant domestic exchanges couldn’t compete with New York on liquidity and far higher valuations for tech companies. China Inc. raised $13 billion through first time share sales in the U.S. this year alone.

After Didi’s contentious June 30 IPO, it appears the Communist Party decided it had had enough.

“The death of ADRs was inevitable,” said Fraser Howie, author of ‘Red Capitalism: The Fragile Financial Foundation of China’s Extraordinary Rise.’ “What’s interesting is the mold and template that’s achieving that result. It’s coming from a mindset of control and clamping down on business. That’s very different to a mindset of reform and building markets domestically.”

Beijing’s move to regulate overseas IPOs coincides with stricter controls over China’s technology firms, many of which have near-monopolies in their fields and vast pools of user data. This campaign to rein in the tech industry has accelerated in recent months as Xi seeks to limit the influence of the billionaires who control these firms.

For Chinese companies already listed in the U.S., what happens next largely depends on what China does with VIEs. Banning them outright would be unlikely, as it would force firms to delist from foreign exchanges, unwind that structure and then relist -- a costly process that could take years. The updated regulations are expected to be ready in a month or two, people familiar with the matter have said.

Hong Kong is increasingly looking like a viable alternative. For one, China plans to exempt Hong Kong IPOs from first seeking the approval of the country’s cybersecurity regulator, Bloomberg reported last week. In a forced U.S. delisting, firms that already sold shares in Hong Kong -- like Alibaba and JD.com -- can migrate their primary listing to the city. The delisted U.S. receipts, which can still trade off-exchange, won’t be worthless because they represent an economic interest in the company. Hong Kong’s open markets and greenback-pegged currency should facilitate the conversion.

Holders can sell their ADRs before they are delisted or convert them into the Hong Kong-listed common stock without much disruption. A company choosing to terminate its ADR program entirely can also pay out a dollar amount to investors.

But the outlook for Hong Kong’s role as a global financial center is looking more uncertain in the wake of the Biden administration’s warning over doing business in the city. An index of Chinese shares in Hong Kong fell 1.9% on Monday, taking its loss since a January peak to about 19%.

Either way, it seems that the two-decade era that saw China’s most successful and powerful private firms list in the U.S. is coming to a close. The message from Beijing is clear: the Communist Party will have the final say on pretty much everything, including IPOs.

“It’s really important to own companies that are aligned with the direction of the Chinese government,” said Tom Masi, co-portfolio manager of GW&K Investment Management’s emerging wealth strategy fund, which has half its money invested in Chinese stocks. “I would not be financing companies that are going to circumvent anything that the Chinese government wants to accomplish.”

Translation

(continue)

目標是創造一個環境，​​使中國科技公司能夠在國內成功上市，減少對美國資本的依賴。隨著前總統唐納德特朗普總統在任後期, 北京和華盛頓之間的緊張局勢加劇，這種需要變得更加緊迫。特朗普出台了嚴厲的新規定，這意味著如果中國公司拒絕向美國監管機構提供財務信息，他們可能會在幾年後被踢出交易所。

雖然在香港的二次上市有所回升，但中國公司仍然較喜歡紐，因為處理上市申請需要數周而不是數月的時間。中國嚴格的資本管制, 意味著國內交易所無法在流動性和更高的科技公司估值方面與紐約競爭。僅今年一年，中國公司就通過在美國的首次股票銷售籌集了 130 億美元。

在滴滴 6 月 30 日有爭議的上市之後，共產黨似乎認為它已經受夠了。

《紅色資本主義：中國非凡崛起的脆弱金融基礎》一書的作者Fraser Howie說:“ADR 的消亡是不可避免的” ;“有趣的是實現了這一結果的模式和範本。它來自一種控制和壓制業務的心態。這與内部改革和建設市場的心態大不相同。”

北京監管海外上市 的舉措恰逢對中國科技公司更嚴格的控制，其中許多公司在其領域達到近乎壟斷並擁有大量用戶數據。近幾個月來，隨著習近平試圖限制這些公司的億萬富翁的影響力，加速了這場控制科技行業的運動。

對於已經在美國上市的中國公司，接下來會發生什麼, 在很大程度上取決於中國對 VIE 的做法。完全禁止它們是不太可能的。因為這將迫使公司從外匯市場退市，撤銷該結構，然後重新上市 - 一個可能需要數年時間的昂貴過程。知情人士表示，預計更新後的法規將在一兩個月內就緒。

香港越來越像是一個可行的選擇。一方面，據彭博社上週報導，中國計劃豁免香港首次公開募股首先尋求國家網絡安全監管機構的批准。在美國強制退市的情況下，已經在香港出售股票的公司 - 如阿里巴巴和京東 -可以將其主要上市地點遷移到香港。退市的美國收據仍然可以在場外交易，不會變成毫無價值，因為它們代表了公司的經濟權益。香港的公開市場和與美元掛鉤的貨幣, 應該會便利這種轉換。

持有人可以在其退市前出售其 ADR 或將其轉換為在香港上市的普通股，而不會受到太大干擾。選擇完全終止其 ADR 計劃的公司也可以向投資者支付美元。

但在拜登政府就在香港開展業務發出警告之後，香港作為全球金融中心的前景看起來更加不確定。香港中資股指數週一下跌 1.9%，自 1 月高點以來的跌幅達到約 19%。

無論哪種方式，中國最成功、最強大的私營企業在美國上市的兩個十年時代似乎即將結束。來自北京的信息很明確：共產黨將對包括首次公開募股在內的幾乎所有事情擁有最終決定權。

GW&K Investment Management 新興財富戰略基金的聯席投資組合經理 Tom Masi 表示， “擁有與中國政府方向一致的公司非常重要”; 該基金一半的資金投資於中國股票。 又說:“我不會為那些會規避中國政府想要完成的任何事情的公司提供資金” 。

So, it seems that the two-decade that saw China’s most successful and powerful private firms listing in the U.S. is coming to a close. The message from Beijing is clear: the Communist Party will have direct control on everything inside its territory. Its policy decision is top down. Chinese Communist Party needs to have total control in order to guarantee its survival, and the economic benefit is of secondary importance only. Didi’s contentious June 30 IPO attempt has challenged the authority of the Communist Party and crossed the Party's red line.