香港失去“特殊地位”是意味著什麼

Yahoo Finance on 3.7.2020 reported the following:

What Hong Kong Losing Its ‘Special Status’ Would Mean

Bloomberg Iain Marlow and Daniel Flatley,Bloomberg 10 hours ago

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(Bloomberg) -- Under the United States-Hong Kong Policy Act of 1992, the U.S. treats Hong Kong, a semi-autonomous part of China with its own legal and economic system, differently than the Chinese mainland in trade, commerce and other areas. President Donald Trump has begun stripping away that “special status” to punish China for moves to tighten its grip on the city after a year of pro-democracy street protests. At its most extreme, that could mean the global financial hub being treated the same as any other Chinese city -- a seismic shift that could harm both economies at an already difficult time. China has already begun retaliating.

1. Is the special status gone?

It’s going. On May 27, Secretary of State Michael Pompeo notified Congress that the Trump administration no longer regarded Hong Kong as autonomous from mainland China. On June 29, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said the special status had therefore been revoked.

2. What’s been the impact?

In an opening salvo, Pompeo announced visa restrictions against unspecified Chinese officials; China did the same against Americans. Pompeo said the U.S. would also cease selling defense equipment to Hong Kong, a largely symbolic act that will mostly affect the city’s police and corrections forces. The Commerce Department made it harder to export sensitive American technology to Hong Kong by suspending special treatment in areas including export license exceptions; Hong Kong’s leader said the impact would be “minimal.” More far-reaching measures could follow. The city is still treated differently from the the mainland when it comes to tariffs, for instance.

3. Why so slow?

It’s up to Trump to decide how quickly he wants to move while he’s also threatening consequences for China over its handling of the coronavirus and its repression of minorities in Xinjiang province. Hurting China also carries additional risks for the U.S. economy, including the U.S.-China trade deal that Trump had considered one of his biggest achievements, which could affect his odds of winning re-election. Trump has made harsh comments but hasn’t threatened specific punishments for the Beijing government.

4. What’s at stake for Hong Kong and China?

While Hong Kong remains a key gateway from China to the rest of the world, it matters far less to the country’s fortunes than it once did. In 2019, 12% of China’s exports went to or through Hong Kong, down from 45% in 1992. China is also far less reliant on inflows of foreign capital and expertise, and has made a much lower priority of making the yuan an international currency. Nonetheless, the city still matters. Hong Kong’s open capital account and adherence to international standards of governance are unmatched by any mainland Chinese city and make it an important base for international banks and trading firms. Revoking the special status would be “the nuclear option” and “the beginning of the death of Hong Kong as we know it,” said Steve Tsang, director of the University of London’s SOAS China Institute.

5. And their financial markets?

One worst-case scenario: if the U.S. treats Hong Kong no differently than any other Chinese city, why wouldn’t ratings firms and investors do the same? It’s a question posed by Deutsche Bank, which noted that S&P Global Ratings has Hong Kong three notches above China while Moody’s and Fitch have Hong Kong one notch higher. The risk is that China’s own rating gets lowered in coming years and drags Hong Kong’s with it. At the same time, equity index providers may take a fresh look at Hong Kong, which is currently in the MSCI World Index with other developed markets. China is in the emerging market index, raising the question, should Hong Kong be treated the same as Shanghai and Shenzhen?

6. What about for the U.S.?

It has its own reasons for not rocking the boat too much. Hong Kong, the only semi-democratic jurisdiction under Chinese rule, offers U.S. companies a relatively safe way to access the Chinese market and employs a U.S. dollar peg, linking it with the American financial system. According to the Congressional Research Service, the largest U.S. trade surplus in 2019 was with Hong Kong — $36 billion. Hong Kong counted 278 U.S. companies with regional headquarters in the city that year and another 457 with offices. Hong Kong’s first justice minister after the handover to China in 1997, Elsie Leung, told the South China Morning Post in May that any damage would be mutual: “We are not just getting the benefits – it’s a free-trade arrangement which is good for both sides.”

7. How has China responded?

Despite the U.S. action, Chinese lawmakers approved new national security legislation for Hong Kong anyway. The Foreign Ministry has promised unspecified retaliation against what it terms foreign interference, insisting Hong Kong is purely an internal affair. China said last year it would sanction some U.S.-based activist groups including the National Endowment for Democracy, Human Rights Watch and Freedom House, and suspend port visits by U.S. Navy ships to Hong Kong. The official Xinhua News Agency has dismissed as “groundless” accusations about the loss of freedom or human rights issues in Hong Kong. It also noted that the 2018 Human Freedom Index compiled by the Fraser Institute, a Vancouver-based think tank, ranked Hong Kong at No. 3, well ahead of the U.S. at No. 17.

8. And Hong Kong?

The city’s leader, Chief Executive Carrie Lam, has defended the national security law (as has Li Ka-shing, Hong Kong’s richest tycoon). Lam also has said it would be “totally unacceptable” for foreign legislatures to interfere in Hong Kong’s internal affairs, and that sanctions would only complicate the problems in the city. (Lam was selected in 2017 by a committee of 1,200 political insiders overwhelmingly loyal to the Chinese government.) She has sought to reassure investors that the city still adheres to the rule of law and has an independent judiciary. She also has defended police actions.

9. Is this what the protesters have been seeking?

As a largely leaderless movement, the Hong Kong protests have made no official request for international assistance. But some prominent activists including Jimmy Lai and Joshua Wong called on Trump to hit China hard with sanctions, even to the point of revoking the city’s special trading status. Wong had testified last year in Washington in favor of the bill, seeking to put pressure on China. On the streets of Hong Kong, some protesters have made clear their interest in U.S. support by waving American flags, singing “The Star-Spangled Banner” and calling on Trump to “liberate” Hong Kong. Such rallying cries are now illegal in Hong Kong under the new national security law.

Translation

（彭博）- 根據1992年的《美國香港政策法》，美國以自己的法律和經濟制度對待中國半自治區香港，在貿易，商業等領域與中國大陸有所不同。唐納德·特朗普總統已開始剝奪這一“特殊身份”，以懲罰中國。因為在香港經過一年的民主抗爭之後，中國採取了加強對這座城市控制的行動。在最極端的情況下，這可能意味著全球金融中心與任何其他中國城市都將受到同等對待 - 如此巨大的變化可能會在本已艱難的時刻傷害這兩個經濟體。中國已經開始報復。

1.特殊身份消失了嗎？

是消失中。在5月27日，國務卿邁克爾·蓬佩奧（Michael Pompeo）通知國會，特朗普政府不再視香港從中國大陸有自治。 6月29日，商務部長威爾伯·羅斯（Wilbur Ross）表示，特殊身份因此已被撤銷。

2.產生了什麼影響？

在開場白中，蓬佩奧宣布了針對尚未指定的中國官員的簽證限制；中國對美國人也是如此。龐培說，美國也將停止向香港出售國防裝備，這在很大程度上是像徵性的行為，將在很大程度上影響香港的警察和懲教部隊。美國商務部通過在包括出口許可例外的領域中暫停特殊待遇，使向美國出口敏感的美國技術變得更加困難。香港領導人說，影響將是“微不足道”。更深遠的措施可能繼續有来。例如，在關稅方面，這座城市仍與大陸區別對待。

3.為什麼這麼慢？

要進展多快是由特朗普決定，同時還要威脅中國在處理冠狀病毒, 和對新疆少數民族的壓制中給中國帶來的後果。傷害中國還給美國經濟帶來其他風險，包括特朗普認為他最大成就之一的美中貿易協議，這可能會影響他贏得連任的機率。特朗普發表了嚴厲的評論，但沒有威脅要對北京政府進行具體處罰。

4.對香港和中國而言有什麼風險？

儘管香港仍然是中國通往世界其他地區的重要門戶，但它對中國財富的影響遠不如從前。 2019年，中國出口到香港, 或通過香港的產品佔總出口的12％，低於1992年的45％。中國對外國資本和專業知識的依賴也大大減少，將人民幣成為國際貨幣的優先級降低了。儘管如此，這座城市仍然很重要。香港的開放資本賬戶和對國際治理標準的遵守是中國大陸城市所無法比擬的，使其成為國際銀行和貿易公司的重要基地。倫敦大學SOAS中國研究所所長曾志偉說，取消特殊地位將是 “核選擇” 和 “我們所知的香港的死亡開始” 。

5.他們的金融市場？

一種最壞的情況是：如果美國對香港的待遇與中國其他城市相同，為什麼評級公司和投資者也不會這樣做呢？這是德意志銀行提出的一個問題。德意志銀行指出，標普全球評級中, 香港比中國高出三級，而穆迪和惠譽排名香港高中國一級。就風險而言，中國自身的評級在未來幾年會降低，從而拖累香港。同時，股票指數提供者可能會對香港重新審視，而香港目前正與其他發達市場一起納入MSCI世界指數。中國是在新興市場指數中, 這引出了一個問題，香港應否與上海和深圳被一視同仁嗎？

6.對於美國呢？

它有自己的原因，不會打擾現有狀況太多。香港是中國統治下唯一的半民主司法管轄區，為美國公司提供進入中國市場的相對安全的方法，並採用美元聯繫匯率制，將其與美國金融體系聯繫起來。根據國會研究服務局（Congressional Research Service）的數據，2019年美國最大的貿易順差是與香港的貿易 — 達360億美元。當年，香港共有278家美國公司，設其總部在香港，另有457家設有辦事處。在 1997年移交中國後，香港首位律政司梁愛詩（Elsie Leung）在5月對《南華早報》表示，任何損害都是相互的： “我們不僅能獲得好處 - 這是一項自由貿易安排，對雙方有好處。”

7.中國對此有何反應？

儘管美國採取了行動，但中國立法者還是批准了香港的新國家安全立法。 外交部已承諾對其所謂的外國干涉進行一些報復，堅稱香港純粹是內部事務。 中國去年表示，它將制裁包括美國國家民主基金會，人權觀察和自由之家在內的一些以美國為基地組織，併中止美國海軍船隻對香港的港口訪問。 官方的新華社對指控香港喪失自由或人權問題視為“毫無根據的”。 它還指出，總部位於溫哥華的智囊機構弗雷澤研究所（Fraser Institute）編制的《 2018年人類自由指數》將香港排在第3位，遠遠領先於美國的第17位。

8.香港呢？

該市的領導人，行政長官林鄭月娥為《國家安全法》辯護（香港首富李嘉誠也是如此）。林還表示，外國立法機關干涉香港內政是“完全不能接受的”，制裁只會使香港的問題複雜化。 （林氏於2017年由1200個一面倒忠於中國政府的政治內部人士組成的委員會選出。）她試圖向投資者保證，該市仍然遵守法治並擁有獨立的司法機構。她還為警察行動辯護。

9.這是示威者一直追求的目標嗎？

作為一種基本上沒有領導者的運動，香港抗議活動沒有正式要求國際援助。但是，包括黎智英（Jimmy Lai）和黃之鋒（Joshua Wong）在內的一些著名激進主義者呼籲特朗普對中國實施制裁，甚至撤銷該市的特殊貿易地位。黃去年曾在華盛頓作證，希望對該法案施加壓力。在香港的大街上，一些抗議者通過揮舞著美國國旗，唱著“星條旗”並呼籲特朗普“解放”香港，明確表示了對美國支持的興趣。根據新的國家安全法，這種集會呼聲現在在香港是非法的。

              So, President Donald Trump has begun stripping away that “special status” to punish China for tightening its grip on Hong Kong after a year of pro-democracy street protests in the city. How far he will go over this matter is still unknown.