2024年5月1日 星期三

歐盟在被「愚弄」後對華發動貿易攻勢 (1/2)

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

EU Goes on China Trade Offensive After Getting ‘Played’ (1/2)

John Ainger and Alberto Nardelli

Tue, April 16, 2024 at 12:00 a.m. PDT

(Bloomberg) -- European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is unleashing a barrage of trade restrictions against China as she seeks to follow through on a pledge to make the EU a more relevant political player on the global stage.

In addition to an investigation into Chinese subsidies for electric vehicles, the European Union is looking into whether Beijing provided illegal support for windparks on the continent. It has also brought subsidy probes into solar and railway firms and will shortly launch an inquiry into China’s procurement of medical devices.

The deluge of investigations is a reflection of the EU’s increasingly assertive approach to China, threatening restrictive trade measures that could result in tariffs, cutting China off from European markets, and potentially leading to a trade war. But for some, it’s a matter of the EU finally taking steps to make international trade fair again.

“We recognize what we see as the Chinese playbook,” Margrethe Vestager, the EU’s competition chief told Bloomberg Television last week. “Knowing you have been played teaches you that you need to watch out, to be much more observant and to take better actions.”

European officials including former European Central Bank President Mario Draghi have argued that China’s trade abuses are at the heart of the biggest social and political problems that have plagued Europe and the US over the past 20 years. The lack of international rules and dispute settlements created unfair competition that led voters to turn against democratic values because, Draghi said in a February speech, they “justifiably felt they have been left behind.”

The EU’s approach aligns with some Western allies, who are taking a firmer stance with Beijing. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen traveled to China earlier this month, saying that the vast output of its factories had become a global problem. The US won’t take “anything off the table,” including the possibility of additional tariffs, to stem the flood of Chinese goods, she told CNN over the weekend.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who is visiting China this week, warned officials in Beijing to address overcapacity and to treat foreign companies better, saying “competition must be fair.” Chinese leader Xi Jinping told his German counterpart that a surge in clean-technology exports have helped the world tackle inflation.

“We are not in favor of general systems of tariffs, quotas and alike because in the end, trade measures, if they are not intelligent and considerate, tend to cause more damage than good,” Sven Giegold, Germany’s state secretary for climate, said at a meeting of energy ministers Monday. “But at the same time, we should not be naive.”

EU leaders will this week step up efforts to defend the bloc against unfair trade practices as part of its efforts to come forward with a new competitiveness deal, according to draft conclusions for the summit seen by Bloomberg. The document highlights that the bloc is facing increasingly “assertive policy measures” by rivals, most notably when it comes to subsidies.

It’s in the area of clean tech where the EU is most fervently fighting to stave off competition from cheap Chinese imports of everything from EVs to solar panels. An industry backlash has raised concerns that its domestic green technologies could be hijacked during the transition to net-zero by the middle of the century.

(to be continued)

Translation

(彭博)歐盟委員會主席馮德萊恩正在對中國實施一系列貿易限制,因為她尋求兌現令歐盟在全球舞台上成為更具影響力的政治參與者的承諾。

除了進行調中國對電動車的補貼外,歐盟還在調查北京是否為在歐洲大陸的風電場提供非法支持。 亦調查中國對太陽能和鐵路公司進行了補貼,並將很快對中國採購醫療設備的情況發起調查。

大量調查反映了歐盟對中國日益強硬的態度,威脅採取限制性貿易措施,這些措施可能導致關稅、切斷中國與歐洲市場的聯繫,並可能導致貿易戰。 但對某些人來說,這是歐盟最終採取措施讓國際貿易再次公平的問題。

歐盟競爭主管 Margrethe Vestager 上週對彭博電視台表示: 「我們見識到我們所看到的中國劇本」。 「知道自己被愚弄了,你需要保持警惕,更加善於觀察,並採取更好的行動」。

包括前歐洲央行行長 Mario Draghi 內的歐洲官員認為,中國的貿易濫用行為是過去20年來困擾歐洲和美國的最大社會和政治問題的核心。 Draghi 在二月的演講中表示,缺乏國際規則和解決爭端機製造成了不公平競爭,導致選民反對民主價值觀,因為他們「有理由感到自己被遺棄」。

歐盟的做法與一些西方盟友一致,他們對北京採取了更強硬的立場。 美國財政部長耶倫本月稍早訪問中國,稱中國工廠的高產量已成為全球性議題。 她週末對美國有線電視新聞網(CNN)表示,美國將不會 排除任何措施,包括徵收額外關稅的可能性,以阻止中國商品的大量湧入。

本周正在中國訪問的德國總理朔爾茨警告北京官員解決產能過剩問題,並更好地對待外國企業,並表示「競爭必須公平」。 中國領導人習近平告訴德國方,潔淨技術出口的激增幫助世界應對通貨膨脹。

德國氣候國務秘書 Sven Giegold 在周一舉行的能源部長會議上表示:「我們不贊成關稅、配額等一般制度,因為最終,如果貿易措施不合理、不周全,往往弊大於利」。 「但與此同時,我們也不應該天真」。

根據彭博社看到的峰會結論草案,歐盟領導人本週將加大力度,捍衛歐盟免受不公平貿易行為的影響,作為提出新的競爭力協議的一部分。 該文件強調,歐盟正面臨競爭對手日益 脅逼性政策措施 ,尤其是在補貼方面。

在潔淨技術領域,歐盟最熱衷於避免從電動車到太陽能板的中國廉價進口產品的競爭。 業界的強烈反對引發了人們的擔憂,即在本世紀中葉向淨零轉型的過程中,歐盟內綠色技術可能會被別人掌控。

(待續)

2024年4月29日 星期一

中國要求電信公司逐步淘汰外國晶片,對英特爾、AMD造成打擊 - 華爾街日報

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

China tells telecom firms to phase out foreign chips in blow to Intel, AMD - WSJ

Updated Fri, April 12, 2024 at 7:25 a.m. PDT

(Reuters) -Chinese officials directed the country's largest telecom carriers earlier this year to phase out foreign chips that are key to their networks by 2027, the Wall Street Journal reported on Friday, citing people familiar with the development.

The move would impact U.S. chip giants Intel and Advanced Micro Devices, according to the report. Their shares were down more than 1.5% in premarket trading.

Intel declined to comment, while AMD did not respond to a Reuters request for comment.

Beijing has ramped up efforts to replace Western-made technology with domestic alternatives amid Sino-U.S. tensions, as Washington tightens curbs on high-tech exports to its rival, Reuters reported late last year.

State-owned enterprises were instructed in 2022 to replace office software systems with domestic products by 2027, the first time such specific deadlines were imposed, according to five brokerage firms that cited a September 2022 order from China's state asset regulator. Reuters could not independently verify the order.

China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology ordered state-owned mobile operators to inspect their networks for non-Chinese semiconductors and map out timelines to replace them, the WSJ report said.

Beijing had introduced guidelines to phase out U.S. chips from Intel and AMD from government personal computers and servers, the Financial Times had reported in March.

China was Intel's largest market last year and was responsible for more than 27% of its total revenue.

Procurements by Chinese telecom carriers show they are increasingly switching to domestic options. This has been made possible in part by the improved quality and stability of local chips, according to the WSJ report.

(Reporting by Akanksha Khushi and Harshita Mary Varghese in Bengaluru; Editing by Arun Koyyur and Pooja Desai)

Translation

(路透社) - 根據《華爾街日報》週五援引知情人士的話報道,中國官員今年早些時候指示該國最大的電信運營商到 2027 年逐步淘汰對其網絡中重要的外國晶片。

報導稱,此舉將影響美國晶片巨擘英特爾(Intel)和超微半導體(AMD)公司。 他們的股價在盤前交易中下跌超過 1.5%

英特爾拒絕置評,而 AMD 也沒有回應路透社的置評請求。

根據路透社去年年底報道,在中美關係緊張之際,隨著華盛頓收緊對其競爭對手高科技出口的限制,北京加大了力度去用國內的技術取代西方製造技術。

五家券商引述中國國資監管機構 2022 9 月的命令稱,國有企業在2022年被要求到 2027 年之時用國產產品替換辦公軟體系統,這是首次這樣規定具體期限。 路透社無法獨立核實該命令。

《華爾街日報》報道稱,中國工業和資訊化部命令國有流動電話營運商去檢查其網路中, 是否有非中國的半導體,並制定更換時間表。

根據英國《金融時報》3 月報道,北京已出台指導方針,逐步從政府個人電腦和伺服器中淘汰英特爾和 AMD 的美國晶片。

中國是英特爾去年最大的市場,佔總收入的27%以上。

中國電信業者的採購顯示他們越來越多地轉向國內選擇。 根據《華爾街日報》報道,這在一定程度上是因為本地晶片品質和穩定性已提高。

So, China's largest telecom carriers will phase out foreign chips that are key to their networks, and chips from Intel and AMD are the targets. It seems that trade protectionism is getting grounds globally.

2024年4月27日 星期六

15 分鐘內暴跌99%發生後,中國水泥製造商停牌

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

Chinese Cement Maker Halted After 99% Crash in 15 Minutes

Bloomberg News

Wed, April 10, 2024 at 12:35 a.m. PDT

(Bloomberg) -- A Chinese cement producer was in the spotlight after it suspended stock trading Wednesday, following a selloff that nearly wiped out all its market value in the final 15 minutes of the previous session.

China Tianrui Group Cement Co. said trading in its Hong Kong-listed shares has been halted from 9 a.m. local time, pending an announcement related to inside information, according to an exchange filing.

Based in the central Henan province, Tianrui’s stock plunged 99% to about HK$0.05 Tuesday, cutting its market capitalization to HK$141 million ($18 million). During the selloff, about 281 million shares, or a third of the firm’s free float, changed hands. Of that amount, more than 80 million shares were traded during the final few minutes of the session known as the closing auction.

Tianrui’s abrupt and dramatic stock rout is a reminder of the risks associated with obscure Chinese firms with a high concentration of shareholding and those that engage in financing practices such as using shares as debt collateral. The loss-making company’s woes also come at a time when an unprecedented housing crisis is causing increased stress among the country’s property developers and construction firms.

“When there is a relatively large selling order, it is easy to trigger panic since there are not enough buyers,” said Steven Leung, executive director at UOB Kay Hian in Hong Kong, adding that penny stocks are prone to sudden plunges given thin liquidity. “It could also come from margin calls if the major shareholder pledged the stocks.”

Tianrui’s controlling shareholder Li Liufa and his spouse jointly own approximately 70% of the company, according to a filing in January. The cement producer also announced at that time that it pledged 97 million shares, or 3.3% of its total, to secure a 12-month loan of up to 166.5 million yuan.

The company’s investor relations officials couldn’t be reached for comment when contacted by Bloomberg. It also didn’t immediately respond to a written request for comment.

Tianrui swung to a net loss of 634 million yuan ($87.7 million) last year, from a profit of 449 million yuan in 2022. It cited weak demand resulting from China’s property downturn, intensifying market competition and high raw material costs as reasons.

Listed in Hong Kong in 2011, the company has an annual cement output capacity of about 58 million tons, with its business primarily focused on central and northern China, according to its official website. It also said its products were used in major domestic infrastructure projects such as high-speed rail lines.

Translation

(彭博)週三,一家中國水泥生產商暫停股票交易,該公司在前一交易日最後 15 分鐘的拋售中幾乎抹去了其所有市值,該公司成為眾人關注的焦點。

根據一份交易所備案文件,中國天瑞集團水泥有限公司表示,其在香港上市的股票已於當地時間上午 9 點起停,等待與內部消息相關的公告。

天瑞總部位於河南省中部,週二股價暴跌 99%,至 0.05 港元左右,市值降至 1.41 億港元(1,800 萬美元)。 拋售期間,約 2.81 億股(即該公司自由流通股的三分之一)易手。 其中,超過 8000 萬股在收市競價交易時段的最後幾分鐘進行了交易。

天瑞的股價突然暴跌提醒人們,股權高度集中、不知名的中國公司以及從事以股票作為債務抵押品等融資行為的公司所面臨的風險。 這家虧損公司陷入困境之際,前所未有的住房危機正在給該國的房地產開發商和建築公司帶來更大的壓力。

香港 UOB Kay Hian 執行董事 Steven Leung 表示,「當賣單相對較大時,很容易引發恐慌,因為沒有足夠的買家」。他補充說,由於流動性低,細價股很容易突然暴跌。 「如果大股東抵押了股票,突然暴跌也可能來自追加保證金」。

根據1月的文件,天瑞的控股股東 Li Liufa 及其配偶共同擁有該公司約70%的股份。 該水泥生產商當時也宣布,它抵押了9,700萬股股份,佔總股本的3.3%,以獲得高達1.665億元人民幣的為期12個月的貸款。

彭博社未能接觸該公司投資者關係官員請求置評。 它亦沒有對請求書面評論作出立即回應。

天瑞從2022年的4.49億元利潤轉向去年的淨虧損6.34億元人民幣(8,770萬美元)。原因包括中國房地低迷、市場競爭加劇和原材料成本高導致需求疲軟。

據其官網介紹,該公司於2011年在香港上市,水泥年產能約5,800萬噸,業務主要集中在華中和華北地區。 該公司還表示,其產品是被用於高鐵等國內重大基礎設施項目。

              So, Tianrui’s abrupt and dramatic stock rout is a reminder of the risks associated with obscure Chinese firms that have a high concentration of shareholding. This company is making a loss due to an unprecedented housing crisis that causes stress to property developers and construction firms.

Note:

1. China Tianrui Group Cement Company Limited (中國天瑞集團水泥) was founded in 2000 by Li Fashen and Tianrui Group Casting Co., Ltd. Its business focuses on the domestic mining and utilization of limestone, as well as the production and sales of cement. The headquarters is located at Ruzhou City, Henan Province, China.

2. Closing auction (收市競價交易時段),which allows execution at the closing price, is a trading mechanism commonly used in securities markets across the globe.  During a closing auction, market participants interested in trading at the closing price may input buy and sell orders.  Then their orders interact with each other to form a consensus closing price for each security, and orders are executed at that price. (https://www.hkex.com.hk/Global/Exchange/FAQ/)

3. According to IFEC (投委會)in Hong Kong, a closing auction session (CAS) was introduced by the HKEX on 25 July 2016. It extends trading by an extra 8-10 minutes to all equities and funds to meet the needs of some investors, such as index fund managers, to trade at the closing price. (https://www.ifec.org.hk/web/tc/investment/investment-products/stock/stock-trading/)

For comparation and clarity purposes, a Chinese version of the above paragraph is attached:

收市競價交易時段 (closing auction session) 是一種以單一價格競價的交易機制,買家和賣家在該時段輸入買賣訂單,而交易系統在收集有關的訂單後,會因應訂單的互動,得出一個可以完成最多交易的價格,即收市價。之後,按照買賣盤類別、價格和時間的排序,買賣訂單會以這個單一價格依次進行配對和交易。(https://www.ifec.org.hk/web/tc/investment/investment-products/stock/stock-trading/)

2024年4月25日 星期四

U.S. Tesla's new car sales in the January-March period were 387,000 units, significantly lower than expected

Recently CNN.co.jp reported the following:

米テスラの新車販売、1~3月期は38.7万台 予想を大幅に下回る

2024.04.03 Wed posted at 16:17 JST

ニューヨーク(CNN) 米電気自動車(EV)大手テスラは2日、1~3月期の新車販売台数が市場予想をはるかに下回り、前年同期より大幅に少ない約38万7000台にとどまったことを明らかにした。

販売台数は昨年10~12月期の48万4507台から大きく減少した。昨年1~3月期は同42万2875台だった。

テスラの発表によると、1~3月期の生産台数は43万3000台だった。販売台数は41万4000~44万台と予想されていた。

テスラは競争の激化に値下げで対応してきた結果、利益率が低下している。販売台数の伸びを見込む投資家の期待にも応えられず、同社の株価は今年に入って3割あまり下落。2日の市場でさらに5%下がった。

テスラは販売台数が減少した原因として、中東・紅海の海運混乱や、独工場の火災による操業停止の影響を挙げたが、EV業界の競争が激化した結果、需要が減速していることも大きな要因とみられる。

EV販売では中国の大手、BYDがテスラを抜いて世界トップに立っていたが、1~3月期は昨年10~12月期の52万5409台から大幅に減少して30万114台にとどまり、テスラが首位を奪還した。

Translation

New York (CNN) U.S. electric vehicle (EV) giant Tesla announced on the 2nd that sales of new cars in the January-March period were far below market expectations, reaching around 387,000 units, significantly lower than the same period last year.

The number of units sold decreased significantly from 484,507 units recorded in the October-December period last year. In the January-March period last year, the number was 422,875 units.

Tesla announced that it produced 433,000 cars in the January-March period. Sales were expected to be between 414,000 and 440,000 units.

Tesla responded to increased competition by lowering prices, resulting in declining profit margins. The company's stock price had fallen by more than 30% since the beginning of this year, as the company failed to meet investors' expectations for sales growth. Stock price fell another 5% on the market on the 2nd.

Tesla cited shipping disruptions in the Middle East and the Red Sea as reasons for the decline in sales, as well as the suspension of operations due to a fire at a factory in Germany, but a slowdown in demand as a result of intensifying competition in the EV industry was also seen as a major factor.

In terms of EV sales, while Chinese giant BYD overtook Tesla to become the world's top EV seller, but in the January-March period, sales stood at 300,114 units, a significant decrease from 525,409 units in the October-December period last year with Tesla regaining the lead.

So, Tesla announced that sales of new cars in the January-March period were far below market expectations. Intensifying competition in the EV industry is cited a major factor in a slowdown in demand for Tesla cars. Obviously Chinese giant BYD, with its low priced-cars, is a successful competitor in the sales of EV globally

2024年4月23日 星期二

Open AI: Development of generative AI that reproduces human voices, there are also concerns about the risk of misuse

Recently NHK News on-line reported the following:

オープンAI 人の声を再現する生成AI開発 悪用リスク懸念も

2024330 2154

アメリカのベンチャー企業、オープンAIは、人の声を再現する生成AIを開発したと発表しました。病気などで、ことばがうまく話せない人の支援に役立つとする一方、選挙などで悪用されるリスクを避けるため、現時点では本格的な公開はしないとしています。

アメリカのベンチャー企業、オープンAI29日、人の声を再現する生成AIVoice Engine」を開発したと発表しました。

もとになる15秒の声を吹き込んだうえで、しゃべらせたい文章を入力すると、もとの声とそっくりな音声で文章を読み上げることができるということです。

また、もとの声のアクセントを保ったまま音声を外国語に翻訳することもできるとしています。

この生成AIについてオープンAIは、病気などで、ことばがうまく話せない人の支援や、企業の外国向けの情報発信などに活用できるとしています。

一方、人の声を再現する生成AIをめぐっては、選挙などで偽の情報を広げるために悪用される懸念も指摘されていて、オープンAIも「人の声に似た音声の生成に深刻なリスクがあることは認識している。特に選挙がある年は最重要事項だ」としています。

このため、現時点ではサービスの本格的な公開は行わず、著名人の声の再現を防止する仕組みを作るなど、悪用を防ぐ対策が必要だとしています。

Translation

Open AI, an American venture company, announced that it had developed a generative AI that could reproduce human voice. While the company said it could be useful for supporting people who were unable to speak the language due to illness or other reasons, they were not making it publicly available at this time to avoid the risk of it being misused in elections etc.

Open AI, an American venture company, announced on the 29th that it had developed a generative AI "Voice Engine" that reproduced the human voice.

After you recorded an original voice for 15 seconds, then keyed in a sentence that you wanted to say, this sentence would be read out in exactly like the original voice.

It was also possible to translate audio into foreign languages while preserving the original accent.

Regarding generative AI, this Open AI could be used to support people who could not speak the language well due to illness, etc., and for companies to disseminate information to foreign countries.

On the other hand, concerns had been raised regarding generative AI that it could be misused to spread false information in elections etc.  Open AI supposed that "We recognize that there are serious risks in producing sounds that resemble the human voice. This is especially important in years when there are elections."

For this reason, the service would not be fully released to the public at this time, and it was necessary to take measures to prevent abuse, such as creating a mechanism to prevent the reproduction of celebrity voices.

So, Open AI has developed a generative AI that could reproduce the human voice.  Such a device could help the making of fake new for the purpose of spreading false information or false message to confuse others. In future we should take extra care when we receive important voices messages.

2024年4月21日 星期日

大量廉價中國商品湧入世界並加劇貿易緊張 (2/2)

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

A glut of cheap Chinese goods is flooding the world and stoking trade tensions (2/2)

Analysis by Hanna Ziady and Laura He, CNN

Thu, March 28, 2024 at 4:42 a.m. PDT

(continue)

Earlier this month, Premier Li Qiang, Xi’s number two, told China’s parliament that the government would focus on exporting more of the country’s “new trio” of products, namely EVs, lithium batteries and solar panels.

Eskelund of the European Union Chamber of Commerce says the organization is seeing “overcapacity across the board” in China, whether in the production of chemicals, metals or EVs.

“We haven’t seen all that capacity coming online just yet. This is something that’s going to hit markets over the next few years,” he added.

Trade tensions mount

Beijing is aware of China’s overcapacity problem, acknowledging it as an issue for the first time in almost a decade at an annual meeting of senior officials in December.

But on the eve of this week’s China Development Forum, several Chinese state-owned media outlets published editorials challenging the notion that China’s supply glut poses a threat to other economies.

“What China exports is advanced production capacity that meets the needs of foreign customers,” Xinhua News Agency wrote.

Washington and Brussels have a different view, however. US President Joe Biden recently pledged to investigate whether imports of Chinese vehicles pose a national security threat.

“A dynamic auto industry is vital to the US economy,” he said in a statement last month. “China is determined to dominate the future of the auto market, including by using unfair practices. China’s policies could flood our market with its vehicles, posing risks to our national security.”

The EU, meanwhile, is looking into China’s state support for EV makers, which it suspects may be enabling these firms to keep prices super-low, creating unfair competition with European rivals.

European officials are also considering whether existing measures to safeguard the EU steel industry should be extended or adjusted, as well as investigating allegations of biodiesel dumping by China following a complaint by European producers. Biodiesel is a renewable alternative to fossil fuels used in the EU’s transport sector.

The European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, said in December that it might impose tariffs on Chinese biodiesel imports if dumping was confirmed.

China, for its part, is fighting back. It said this week that it had filed a complaint with the WTO to contest “discriminatory subsidy policies” for EVs under Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act. Earlier this year, Beijing opened an anti-dumping investigation into brandy imported from the EU.

If there is a silver lining to China’s influence in global trade, it’s that it should help keep goods prices and overall inflation in check in advanced economies this year, according to Jennifer McKeown, chief global economist at Capital Economics.

“But perhaps more importantly, persistent oversupply and low prices of Chinese goods will add to geopolitical tensions and keep the threat of tariffs and counter-tariffs alive,” she wrote in a recent note. And these could ultimately raise inflation in the years ahead, she said.

 - Shawn Deng contributed reporting.

Translation

(繼續)

本月早些時候,習近平的二把手、總理李強向中國人大表示,政府將重點出口更多中國新三產品,即電動車、鋰電池和太陽能板。

歐盟商會的 Eskelund 表示,該組織發現中國全面產能過剩 ,無論是化學品、金屬還是電動車的生產。

他補充道: 「我們仍未看到那些能已被用盡。 它是一些將在未來幾年內進入市場的東西」。

貿易緊張局勢加劇

北京已經意識到它的產能過剩問題,並在去年 12 月舉行的高級官員年度會議上, 近十年來首次承認這一問題。

但在本週的中國發展高層論壇 前夕,多家中國國有媒體發表社論,質疑中國供應過剩對其他經濟體構成威脅的觀點。

新華社寫道: 「中國出口的是滿足外國客戶需求的先進產能」。

然而,華盛頓和布魯塞爾卻有不同的看法。 美國總統拜登最近承諾調查中國進口車是否構成國家安全威脅。

他在上個月的聲明中表示: 「擁有一個充滿活力的汽車產業對美國經濟至關重要」。 「中國決心主導汽車市場的未來,包括採取不公平的做法。 中國的政策可能會使它的汽車充斥我們的市場,對我們的國家安全構成風險」。

同時,歐盟正在調查中國對電動車製造商的國家支持,歐盟懷疑這可能使這些公司能夠保持超低價格,從而與歐洲競爭對手形成不公平競爭。

歐洲官員也正在考慮是否應該延長或調整現有的保護歐盟鋼鐵工業的措施,並在歐洲生產商提出投訴後調查中國生物柴油傾銷的指控。 生物柴油是歐盟在運輸方面使用的化石燃料的可再生替代品。

歐盟執行機構歐盟委員會去年12月表示,如果傾銷被證實,可能對中國生物柴油進口徵收關稅。

就中國而言,它正在反擊。 它本週表示,已向世貿組織提出申訴,質疑拜登《通膨削減法案》下針對電動車的「歧視性補貼政策」。 今年早些時候,北京對從歐盟進口的白蘭地啟動了反傾銷調查。

Capital Economics 首席全球經濟學家 Jennifer McKeown 表示,如果說中國在全球貿易中的影響力還有一線希望的話,那就是它應該幫助控制發達經濟體今年的商品價格和整體通膨。

她在最近的一份報告中寫道: 「但也許更重要的是,中國商品持續供過於求和低價, 將加劇地緣政治緊張局勢,並使關稅和反關稅威脅持續存在」。說,這些最終可能會加劇未來幾年的通膨。

              So, China’s factories are producing more steel, cars and solar panels than its slowing economy can use, forcing a flood of cheap exports into foreign markets. These goods create tensions with its major trading partners, including the United States and the European Union. China’s global trade surplus is now approaching $1 trillion. Probably the persistent oversupply of low-price Chinese goods will add to geopolitical tensions and keep the threat of tariffs and counter-tariffs alive, thus creating inflation globally.

Note:

1. China Development Forum (中國發展高層論壇) is a high level and annual international forum initiated in 2000 by China Development Research Foundation of the Republic of China's State Council. Initially it was conceived by former Premier Zhu Rongji. The forum aims to strengthen communication at high level between China and the world. (Wikipedia)

2024年4月19日 星期五

大量廉價中國商品湧入世界並加劇貿易緊張 (1/2)

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

A glut of cheap Chinese goods is flooding the world and stoking trade tensions (1/2)

Analysis by Hanna Ziady and Laura He, CNN

Thu, March 28, 2024 at 4:42 a.m. PDT

China’s factories are churning out more steel, cars and solar panels than its slowing economy can use, forcing a flood of cheap exports into foreign markets.

The oversupply of Chinese goods in key industries is stoking tensions between the world’s biggest manufacturer and its major trading partners, including the United States and the European Union. Its global trade surplus in goods has soared and is now approaching $1 trillion.

The United States and the EU are fretting over potential “dumping” by China — that is, exporting goods at artificially low prices — with electric vehicles among the products caught in the crosshairs.

“Europe cannot just accept that strategically viable industries constituting the European industrial base are being priced out of the market,” Jens Eskelund, president of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, told reporters earlier this month.

But China needs to increase exports as a key measure to revive its economy, which is grappling with a protracted property slump, weak household spending and a shrinking population among other problems.

Beijing is now focusing on higher-value exports, after investing billions into advanced manufacturing. But the move is badly timed, coming amid slower economic growth globally and a shift by Western consumers from pandemic-era spending on goods to travel and leisure.

It is also coming up against a push by Europe and the United States to reduce their dependence on China and boost local manufacturing, creating jobs — including through the Net-Zero Industry Act and the Inflation Reduction Act respectively.

“It is hard for me to imagine that Europe would just sit by and quietly witness (its own) accelerated de-industrialization… because of the externalization of low domestic demand in China,” Eskelund said.

According to China’s National Bureau of Statistics, prices of Chinese exports are at their lowest level since 2009, when the West was reeling from the global financial crisis.

And China’s surplus in goods trade has more than doubled since the pandemic, according to Brad W. Setser, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. In 2019, the country exported an estimated $400 billion more in goods than it imported — a surplus that ballooned to $900 billion last year.

From clothes to cars

China’s exports of low-priced goods got a boost after it joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001. Its economy and heft as a manufacturer have also grown substantially since then.

Having conquered the production of clothing and consumer electronics, China has come to dominate electric vehicles, solar panels and wind turbines — industries viewed as strategically important in Europe and the United States as they seek to green their economies and reduce planet-heating pollution.

Europe’s solar panel producers have been all but wiped out by Chinese competition, and the same fate threatens its wind industry.

“European companies could fall behind (Chinese manufacturer) Goldwind, which already offers its turbines well below the price of the established (European) manufacturers,” Markus W. Voigt, CEO of the Aream Group, an asset manager specializing in renewable energy, said in a statement this month.

In the last three months of 2023, China’s BYD overtook Tesla (TSLA) as the top seller of EVs worldwide, capping an extraordinary rise for the Warren Buffett-backed carmaker. Compared with Tesla, BYD’s cars are more affordable, which has helped it attract a wider range of buyers. Its entry-level model sells in China for the equivalent of just under $10,000. The cheapest Tesla car, a Model 3, costs almost $39,000.

Alongside “surging EV exports,” China manufactures 80% of the world’s solar panels and makes more wind turbines than any other country, Setser wrote in a recent note. “Chinese policy continues to emphasize upgrading China’s capacity in advanced manufacturing as a major driver of future growth,” he added.

(to be continued)

Translation

中國工廠生產的鋼鐵、汽車和太陽能板超出了其在放緩中的經濟需求,迫使大量廉價產品湧入國外市場。

中國商品在關鍵產業的供應過剩, 正在加劇全球最大製造商與其主要貿易夥伴之間的緊張關係,包括美國和歐盟。 中國全球貨物貿易順差飆升,目前已接近1兆美元。

美國和歐盟對中國潛在的「傾銷」(即以人為壓低的價格出口商品)感到擔憂,其中電動車就是目標產品之一。

中國歐盟商會會長 Jens Eskelund 本月稍早對記者表示:「歐洲不能呆着地接受其構成戰略上可行的歐洲工業基礎, 因高價格而被擠出市場」。

但中國需要增加出口作為重振經濟的關鍵措施,目前中國正面臨房地產業長期低迷、家庭支出疲軟和人口萎縮等問題。

北京在向先進製造業投資數十億美元後,現在將重點放在高價值的出口上。 但這項措施的時機並不恰當,因為全球經濟成長放緩,西方消費者從疫情時期的商品消費轉向於旅行和休閒。

中國也面臨歐洲和美國推動減少對它的依賴、他們努力促進自己的製造業、去創造就業的機會- 包括分別通過淨零工業法案和通膨削減法案。

Eskelund : 「我很難想像,由於中國國內需求低迷的外向化,歐洲會袖手旁觀,靜靜地見證(其自身的)工業化的加速」。

根據中國國家統計局的數據,中國出口價格處於 2009年以來的最低水平,當時西方正遭受全球金融危機的影響。

美國外交關係委員會高級研究員 Brad W. Setser 表示,自疫情爆發以來,中國的貨物貿易順差增加了一倍以上。 2019年,該國的商品出口額估計比進口額多了4,000億美元 - 去年順差激增至9,000億美元。

從衣服到汽車

2001年加入世界貿易組織(WTO)後,中國的低價商品出口得到提振,其經濟和作為製造商的影響力也大幅成長。

在征服了服裝和消費性電子產品的生產之後,中國已開始主導電動車、太陽能電池板和風力渦輪機 - 這些產業在歐洲和美國正在尋求綠色經濟和減少地球暖化問題之際, 被視為具有戰略重要性。

歐洲的太陽能板生產商幾乎被中國的競爭所淘汰,同樣的命運也威脅其風能產業。

專注於再生能源的資產管理公司 Aream Group 首席執行官 Markus W. Voigt 在本月的聲明中表示: 「歐洲公司可能會落後於(中國製造商)金風科技,金風科技提供的渦輪機價格已經遠低於老牌(歐洲)製造商的價格」。

2023 年最後三個月,中國比亞迪 (BYD)超越特斯拉 (TSLA),成為全球電動車銷量最高的公司,為這家巴菲特支持的汽車製造商的非凡冒昇畫上句號。 與特斯拉相比,比亞迪的汽車價格更便宜,這有助於它吸引更廣泛的買家。 其入門級型號在中國的售價略低於 10,000 美元。 最便宜的特斯拉汽車 Model 3 售價近 39,000 美元。

Setser 在最近的一份報告中寫道,除了「電動車出口激增」之外,中國還生產了全球 80% 的太陽能電池板,並生產了比其他國家更多的風力渦輪機。 他補充道: 「中國政策繼續強調提升中國先進製造能力,將其作為未來成長的主要驅動力」。

(待續)

Note:

1. First announced under the Commission's Green Deal Industrial Plan in early 2023, the Net Zero Industry Act (淨零工業法案) is part of the EU's direct response to the US Inflation Reduction Act. It was designed to help the EU reach its 2030 climate targets while boosting the production of key green technologies within the EU. (https://www.wwf.eu/?12836866/nzia-trilogue-pr#)

2. According to the US Department of the Treasury, on August 16, 2022, President Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) (通膨削減法案) into law, marking one of the largest investments in the American economy, energy security, and climate that Congress has made in the nation’s history. Across the economy, the IRA is creating opportunities to build projects, hire workers, and manufacture equipment needed to strengthen domestic supply chains, lower household energy costs while reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and pay good wages for those efforts. (https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/inflation-reduction-act#:~:text=)

3. Goldwind Science & Technology Co., Ltd., commonly known as Goldwind (金風科技), is a Chinese multinational wind turbine manufacturer headquartered in Beijing, China. Goldwind was a state-owned enterprise before 2007, with largest shareholders including Hexie Health Insurance, China Three Gorges Renewables Group, and the National Social Security Fund, state-controlled corporations holding almost 40% shares. Its founder, Wu Gang, is a Communist Party member and had a seat in the 12th National People's Congress. (Wikipedia)