墨西哥取代中國成為美國主要進口商品來源國

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

Mexico overtakes China as the leading source of goods imported by US

AP - Mark Stevenson (The Canadian Press Repost)

Wed, February 7, 2024 at 8:41 p.m. PST·3 min read

WASHINGTON (AP) — For the first time in more than two decades, Mexico last year surpassed China as the leading source of goods imported by the United States. The shift reflects the growing tensions between Washington and Beijing as well as U.S. efforts to import from countries that are friendlier and closer to home.

Figures released Wednesday by the U.S. Commerce Department show that the value of goods imported by the United States from Mexico rose nearly 5% from 2022 to 2023, to more than $475 billion. At the same time, the value of Chinese imports tumbled 20% to $427 billion.

The last time that Mexican goods imported by the United States exceeded the value of China's imports was in 2002.

Economic relations between the United States and China have severely deteriorated in recent years as Beijing has fought aggressively on trade and made ominous military gestures in the Far East.

The Trump administration began imposing tariffs on Chinese imports in 2018, arguing that Beijing's trade practices violated global trade rules. President Joe Biden retained those tariffs after taking office in 2021, making clear that antagonism toward China would be a rare area of common ground for Democrats and Republicans.

As an alternative to offshoring production to China, which U.S. corporations had long engaged in, the Biden administration has urged companies to seek suppliers in allied countries ("friend-shoring'') or to return manufacturing to the United States ("reshoring''). Supply-chain disruptions related to the COVID-19 pandemic also led U.S. companies to seek supplies closer to the United States ("near-shoring'').

Mexico has been among the beneficiaries of the growing shift away from reliance on Chinese factories. But the picture is more complicated than it might seem. Some Chinese manufacturers have established factories in Mexico to exploit the benefits of the 3-year-old U.S.-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement, which allows for duty-free trade in North America for many products.

Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador said this week that the trade status gives Mexico new leverage, saying it would make it hard for the U.S. to close the two countries’ border to limit immigration, as suggested in negotiations on a border bill in the U.S. Senate.

“The negotiation is proposing closing the border,” he said. “Do you think Americans, or Mexicans, but especially the Americans, would approve that? The businesses wouldn’t take it, maybe one day, but not a week.”

Some industries — especially auto manufacturers — have set up plants on both sides of the border that depend on each for a steady supply of parts.

Derek Scissors, a China specialist at the conservative American Enterprise Institute, noted that the biggest drops in Chinese imports were in computers and electronics and chemicals and pharmaceuticals — all politically sensitive categories.

“I don't see the U.S. being comfortable with a rebound in those areas in 2024 and 2025," Scissors said, predicting that the China-Mexico reversal on imports to the United States likely "is not a one-year blip.''

Scissors suggested that the drop in U.S. reliance on Chinese goods partly reflects wariness of Beijing's economic policies under President Xi Jinping. Xi's draconian COVID-19 lockdowns brought significant swaths of the Chinese economy to a standstill in 2022, and his officials have raided foreign companies in apparent counterespionage investigations.

“I think it’s corporate America belatedly deciding Xi Jinping is unreliable,” he said.

Overall, the U.S. deficit in the trade of goods with the rest of the world — the gap between the value of what the United States sells and what it buys abroad — narrowed 10% last year to $1.06 trillion.

 ___

 Associate Press writer Mark Stevenson in Mexico City contributed to this report.

Translation

華盛頓（美聯社）—去年，墨西哥二十多年來首次超過中國，成為美國進口商品的主要來源國。 這一轉變反映出華盛頓和北京之間日益緊張的關係，以及美國從更友善、更靠近本土的國家進口的努力。

美國商務部週三公佈的數據顯示，2022年至2023年美國從墨西哥進口的商品價值成長了近5%，達到超過4,750億美元。 同時，中國進口額下降 20%，至 4,270 億美元。

上一次美國進口的墨西哥商品超過中國的進口額是在2002年。

近年來，由於北京在貿易上咄咄逼人，並在遠東做出了暗示可能會發生一些不愉快的軍事姿態，美國和中國之間的經濟關係嚴重惡化。

特朗普政府於2018年開始對中國進口商品徵收關稅，認為北京的貿易行為違反了全球貿易規則。 拜登總統在 2021 年上任後保留了這些關稅，明確表示對中國的對抗將是民主黨和共和黨罕見的共識。

美國企業長期從事的把生產外包到中國, 作為替代方案，拜登政府敦促企業在盟國中尋找供應商（友邦生產供應）或將製造業務返回美國（回流生產供應） 。 因 COVID-19 大流行相關的供應鏈中斷也導致美國公司尋求更近美國的供應（近岸生產供應）。

墨西哥一直是日益擺脫對中國工廠依賴的受益者之一。 但情況比看起來更複雜。 一些中國製造商在墨西哥建廠，以利用為期三年的美國-墨西哥-加拿大貿易協定的好處，該協定允許許多產品在北美進行免稅貿易。

墨西哥總統 Andrés Manuel López Obrador 本週表示，貿易地位給墨西哥帶來了新的談判影響力，並稱這將使美國很難關閉兩國邊境以限制移民, 正如美國參議院邊境法案談判中所建議的 。

他說: 「談判提出關閉邊境」。 「你認為美國人，或者墨西哥人，尤其是美國人會批准這一點嗎？ 企業是不會接受的，也許會接受一天的關閉，但不會是一周的。”

一些行業 - 尤其是汽車製造商 - 已經在邊境兩側設立了工廠，並依靠各自的工廠去穩定零件供應。

保守派 美國企業研究所 的中國專家 Derek Scissors 指出，中國進口下降幅度最大的是電腦、電子產品、化學品和藥品 - 所有這些都是政治敏感類別。

Derek Scissors 表示：「我認為美國不會對在這些領域在 2024 年和 2025 年出現反彈感到安心」。他預測對美國進口的中墨逆轉可能「不是一年的暫時的改變」。

Scissors 表示，美國對中國商品依賴的下降部分反映了對習近平主席領導下的北京經濟政策的警覺。 習近平對新冠肺炎 (COVID-19) 採取的嚴厲封鎖措施導致中國經濟的大部分地區在 2022 年陷入停滯，他的官員在看來是反間諜調查中突擊搜查了外國公司。

他說: 「我認為美國企業界遲來地認為習近平不可靠」。

總體而言，美國與世界其他地區的商品貿易逆差（即美國向國外出口的商品價值與它在國外購買商品的價值之間的差距）去年收窄了 10%，至 1.06万亿美元。

              So, for the first time in more than two decades, Mexico last year surpassed China as the leading source of goods imported by the United States. The shift reflects the growing tensions between Washington and Beijing as well as U.S. efforts to import from countries that are friendlier and closer to home. Probably the trend for the US to import more goods from Mexico will continue.