Yahoo Finance on 1.7.2020 reported the following
What Hong Kong’s New Security Law Means for Business (part
II)
Bloomberg Bloomberg News,Bloomberg 12 hours ago
Reactions Reblog on Tumblr Share Tweet Email
(Continue from part I)
William Nee, a business and human rights analyst at Amnesty
International’s Hong Kong office
In the short run, businesses in Hong Kong may feel some respite if violent protests subside. In the long run, the law will most likely embolden Beijing and local allies to put greater political pressure on companies and their employees to closely adhere to the Beijing’s agenda.
In the mainland, Beijing applies national security laws fairly arbitrarily and selectively. It’s quite possible that CEOs, or any business leaders in Hong Kong who supported the protests, could become targets if Chinese authorities want to prioritize such prosecutions. However, for the moment, no one knows how the authorities will use the law -- whether they will merely target people who engaged in violent actions against police or whether they their targets will be much broader against Hong Kong’s cultural and business leaders. The lack of clarity on Beijing’s true intentions is, quite frankly, one factor of uncertainty.
Alex Wong, asset management director of Ample Capital Ltd. in Hong Kong
The market has fully changed hands to reflect the impact of the law back when it was first announced -- the people who panicked and sold then have been replaced by those well aware of the risks and still prepared to participate, and they will not easily flee now. Even if it does affect sentiment within a day or two, the appetite from southbound funds for Hong Kong-listed new economy firms is still immense and mainland funds will likely buy up dips. The impact of the details of the law are limited as nothing comes completely unexpected.
Yiu Si-wing, a Hong Kong lawmaker who represents the tourism industry and chairman of China Travel Service (H.K.) Ltd.
Since last June, the protests and violent incidents have severely hurt the Hong Kong tourism industry. The passage of this new law will help to deter violent events in the future. It will have positive effect in restoring tourists’ confidence.
In the past year, tourists come to Hong Kong not knowing whether the roads would be blocked, the subway would be stopped, or the shops would be set on fire. The security law will significantly reduce the violence we once saw in the city. And it will help solve the trust crisis between mainlanders and Hongkongers.
Yu Yingbo, investment director at Shenzhen Qianhai United Fortune Fund Management Co.
In the stock market, I don’t think we should reasonably expect anything extreme. What panic or precautionary selling there was locally, southbound funds were more than eager to pick up, and the law has no material impact on the Chinese tech stocks, the most active part of the Hong Kong market now, and even the funds that exit might only be sitting it out for the short term.
The social reaction from the law, the push back on the ground -- has been far softer than expected, and the so-called retaliation from the U.S. Has been a mere pleasantry. It would seem that after this point the U.S. has little drive to impose sanctions on something that is already enacted. It just wouldn’t make sense to fixate on this in the coming months when they have so much on their hands.
Sam Lau, the owner of five hostels and two travel agencies in the normally bustling shopping district of Tsim Sha Tsui
After the introduction of the National Security Law, some foreign visitors may come to Hong Kong less frequently. U.S. residents may feel reluctant to visit Hong Kong, especially if the U.S. retaliates against Hong Kong or the U.S.-China confrontation escalates.
We will likely see fewer protesters on the street driven by impulse. The law will be very serious, and the consequence will be very tough. Except those who really don’t fear going into jail, most of the protesters will not go out as much.
But we are much more afraid of the pandemic than the security law. The pandemic kills our businesses, while the security law only affects a small group of people who breach the law. For Hong Kong tourism to return to the heydays of the past, we will need at least one or two years. Before that, we just have to tighten our belt and try to survive.
Richard Harris, a former director at Citi Private Bank who now runs Port Shelter Investment Management in Hong Kong
I think unfortunately there’s a bit of a perfect storm at the moment because we’ve got not only the national security law but we’ve also got Trump and Congress threatening to remove the special status. It really puts a big ceiling on Hong Kong’s growth.
Instead of the tremendous growth we’ve seen, there are going to be people going the other way as well -- major companies saying we’ll have more people in Singapore instead of Hong Kong, people deciding now is the time to move out.
I’m not completely negative on Hong Kong. I think it’ll still be a great place to do business. China needs Hong Kong still, just as Hong Kong needs China. That’s never going to change.
Ben Emons, head of global macro strategy at Medley Global Advisors
The next phase will be how far the U.S. is willing to go in terms sanctioning Chinese officials involved in drafting the security law, and their dealings with Chinese and U.S. and foreign financial institutions.
Chinese banks have less than 50 percent of their dollar liabilities—outstanding $ debt and other obligations—covered by dollar deposits. Foreign banks however, especially those with large dollar lending exposure in Hong Kong—e.g. Citigroup and HSBC—also have a lower coverage by Hong Kong domiciled dollar deposits.
The so-called ‘mismatch’ between dollar assets and liabilities is one of the key risks to Hong Kong and global markets. If sanctions on Chinese banks listed in Hong Kong causes a local dollar funding squeeze, then markets will reprice risk of all banks with high Hong Kong exposure.
Raymond Chen, portfolio manager at Keywise Capital Management (HK) Ltd.
There might be some volatility as Hong Kong stocks resume trading. But for both stock markets the bigger driver would be the pace of China’s economic recovery and liquidity conditions, rather than Sino-U.S. relations that people have grown weary of. I’m not going to change my Hong Kong positions just because of the security law.
It will serve more as a deterrent to separatists who dare to challenge China’s sovereignty, it doesn’t mean that the PLA will take over Hong Kong. I think China will be quite flexible in actual implementation.
Translation
國際特赦組織香港辦事處的業務和人權分析師William
Nee
在短期內，如果暴力抗議活動平息，香港企業可能會有所喘息。從長遠來看，該法律很可能會鼓舞北京和香港同路人向香港公司及其員工施加更大的政治壓力，要求他們嚴格遵守北京的議程。
在大陸，北京相當隨意和有選擇性地使用國家安全法。香港支持抗議活動的公司首席執行官或任何商業領袖很有可能成為目標如果中國當局要優先考慮檢控這些活動。但是，目前還沒有人知道當局將如何使用法律 - 是否只針對那些針對警察採而取暴力行動的人，還是針對香港的文化和商業領袖？坦率地說，北京的真實意圖缺乏明確性是不確定因素之一。
香港安富資本有限公司資產管理總監黃宏偉
香港市場已經完全易手。反映法律最初宣佈時的影響 - 驚慌失措然後賣貨離場的人, 已經被意識到風險, 但卻仍然準備參與入市的人所取代，現在他們不容易離場。即使在這一兩天內確實影響了投資者的情緒，但向南流基金對在香港上市的新經濟公司的胃口仍然很大，內地基金很可能會逢低吸納。法律細節的影響是有限的，因為沒有什麼是完全出乎意料的。
代表旅遊業的香港立法會議員姚思榮，中國旅行社（香港）有限公司董事長
自去年六月以來，抗議活動和暴力事件嚴重傷害了香港旅遊業。這項新法律的通過將有助於遏制未來的暴力事件。這將對恢復遊客的信心產生積極影響。
在過去的一年中，來香港旅遊的遊客，不知道道路會被堵死，地鐵會停下來, 或者商店會著火。國安法將大大減少我們曾經在這座城市中看到的暴力。這將有助於解決內地人與香港人之間的信任危機。
深圳市前海聯合財富基金管理有限公司投資總監于英波
在股票市場上，我認為常理地我們不預期任何極端情況。恐慌性或預防性賣出只在當地發生，南向基金急於踴躍入市，而且該法律對目前香港市場最活躍的中國科技股部分，沒有實質性影響。 甚至已離場的基金，可能只是暫時退避等待。
香港社會對法律的反應，實質的反抗比預期的要軟得多，而美國的所謂報復只是一種玩笑的事情。在這一時段之後，美國幾乎沒有動力對一些已經頒布的制裁加以實施。在接下來的幾個月裡，因他們還有很多手段，故專注於這一點是沒有意義的。
尖沙咀繁華的購物區有五家旅館和兩家旅行社的老闆山姆劉
《國家安全法》實施後，一些外國遊客來港的頻率可能會降低。美國居民可能會不願訪問香港，特別是如果美國對香港進行報復或中美對抗升級。
我們可能會看到因衝動的驅使而上街抗議者的人減少。法律將非常嚴苛，後果將非常沉重。除了那些真的不害怕入獄的人以外，大多數抗議者不會出来太多。
但是，與國家安全法相比，我們更擔心新冠病毒大流行。大流行殺死了我們的業務，而安全法僅影響一小部分違反法律的人。為了使香港旅遊業重回過去的鼎盛時期，我們至少需要一兩年的時間。在此之前，我們需要束緊腰帶並努力工作去生存。
花旗私人銀行前董事Richard Harris現在在香港經營Port Shelter Investment Management
不幸的是，我認為目前會有一場完美的風暴，因為我們不僅制定了國家安全法，而且特朗普和國會威脅要取消特殊地位。這確實給香港的經濟增長設定了上限。
取代我們過往看到的巨大增長，現有人會他往 - 大型公司表示，它們將在新加坡而不是香港擁有更多的人，現在是人們決定搬出去的時候。
我對香港並不完全是負面。我認為這仍然是一個開展業務的好地方。中國仍然需要香港，就像香港需要中國一樣。這永遠不會改變。
Medley Global Advisors全球宏觀策略主管Ben Emons
下一階段將是美國用什麼程度去制裁參與起草安全法的中國官員, 以及他們與中美和外國金融機構的往來。
在中國銀行的美元債務中 - 未償還的美元債務和其他義務 - 只有不到50％有美元存款的覆蓋。另外是外國銀行，尤其是在香港接觸大量美元貸款的銀行，例如花旗銀行和匯豐銀行, 也有較低的香港註冊美元存款覆蓋率。
美元資產與負債之間的所謂“不匹配”是香港和全球市場的主要風險之一。如果制裁在香港上市的中資銀行而導致當地美元資金緊縮，那麼市場將重新定價所有較多接觸香港的銀行的風險。
Keywise Capital Management（HK）Ltd.投資組合經理Raymond Chen
隨著香港股市恢復交易，可能會出現波動。但是對於這兩個股票市場來說，更大的推動力將是中國經濟復甦的步伐和流動性狀況，而不是人們逐漸厭倦的中美關係。我不會僅僅因為安全法而改變香港在我的地位。
這將對敢於挑戰中國主權的分離主義者起到威懾作用，但這並不意味著解放軍將接管香港。我認為中國在實際執行中會非常靈活。
So,
according to many businessmen in Hong Kong, the impact of the new security law
on the ground is that it will not affect the stock market too much as it is a
supported by the investors from China. The new laws will only affect a small
group of Hong Kong politically active people. It will affect the desire of
overseas tourists who want to come, and Hong Kong’s connection on science or
culture with the outside world may be affected.
沒有留言:
張貼留言