Recently Nihon Keizai Shimbun Electronic Edition reported the following:
中国対外融資が膨張 途上国へ強まる支配力
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経済
2020/8/6 18:00 (2020/8/7 5:11更新)日本経済新聞 電子版
中国の対外融資の膨張ぶりが明らかになった。債務の重い発展途上国68カ国向けの貸し付けは2018年末までの4年間で倍増し、世界最大の開発援助機関である世界銀行に肩を並べた。融資が政策やインフラ運営を縛る「債務のワナ」が途上国を覆い、国際秩序も揺るがす。
「香港の情勢を批判するのは中国への内政干渉にあたる」。中国が統制強化のために施行した「香港国家安全維持法」を巡り、6月末の国連人権理事会で53カ国が中国を支持した。中国批判の声明に加わったのは日本を含む27カ国にとどまり、ほとんどは先進国だ。
米メディアのアクシオスによると、中国を支持したのはキューバやパキスタン、カンボジア、アフリカ諸国など。王族支配の中東産油国や強権政治の国を除くと、中国が開発資金の融資などで支援する国が名を連ねた。
中国がこのほど世銀を通じて初めて開示した途上国68カ国への融資状況。18年末の残高は1017億ドル（約10.7兆円）に達した。4年間で1.9倍に急増し、世銀（1037億ドル）に迫った。この間、世銀は4割増、国際通貨基金（IMF）は1割増にとどまった。
中国の融資は金利が高い。20年の期中平均の債務残高をもとに計算すると、融資期間が比較的短いにもかかわらず平均3.5%となり、IMFの0.6%や世銀の1%を大きく上回る。
途上国は専制国家も多く、IMFなどから融資の条件として財政規律などを迫られるのを嫌う傾向が特に強い。金利が高くても中国を頼るのは、こうした制約が少ないためとみられる。
68カ国のうち14カ国が国内総生産（GDP）の1割を超える額を中国から借り入れ、アフリカ東部のジブチでは39%に達した。5%以上に達した26カ国をみると、過半数の14カ国が国連人権理事会で中国支持に回った。
米欧は中国が膨大な融資で途上国への影響力や支配力を強めるのを「債務のワナ」と呼んで警戒してきた。中国は広域経済圏構想「一帯一路」を掲げて鉄道や港湾の建設資金を融資し、中国国有企業の受注などで自国の経済や外交、安全保障上の利益も得る。返済に行き詰まったスリランカは17年、主要港湾を中国国有企業に99年間もリースする事態に陥った。
中国一辺倒を見直す動きもあり、アフリカ南西部のアンゴラはIMFからの37億ドルの融資対象になった。世銀とIMFは途上国への融資が中国への返済の原資に充てられるだけになることには警戒を続けている。
融資の実態が明らかになったのは新型コロナウイルスがきっかけだ。途上国が債務危機に陥ったり、医療予算の減少で感染爆発を招いたりする懸念が強まり、4月の主要20カ国・地域（G20）財務相・中央銀行総裁会議で返済猶予に合意。各国が抱える債務の実態把握が必要になり、中国も国別の情報を開示した。
68カ国は返済猶予の対象国で、重い債務を抱える小規模な国が多い。
G20では債務免除まで議論が進む可能性がある。これまで危機のたびに日米欧の主要国を中心とするパリクラブ（主要債権国会議）が途上国救済の枠組みを決めてきたが、最大の貸し手である中国抜きで議論を進められなくなった。香港問題などを巡る米欧と中国の対立がさらに深まれば、途上国債務での協調に影を落とす恐れもある。
中国は融資を通じて人民元の国際化も探っている。米調査会社ユーラシア・グループは「米ドルで貸した途上国向けの債務を、一部免除する代わりに人民元建てに切り替える案が中国国内で浮上している」と指摘した。
第2次世界大戦中の1944年に開かれたブレトンウッズ会議はIMFと世銀の設立を決め、ドルの基軸通貨としての地位も認めた。それから70年以上続いた米国主導の国際金融秩序が中国の挑戦を受けている。
Translation
The expansion of China's foreign lending had been revealed. Its
lending to 68 heavily in debt developing countries had doubled in four years up
to the end of 2018, rivaling the World Bank which was the world's largest
development aid agency. In a form of “Debt traps” the loan would restrict a
country’s policy and infrastructure management, it would bind the developing
countries and shake the international order.
" To criticize the situation in Hong Kong is an interference
with the internal policy of China." About the "Hong Kong National
Security Maintenance Act" enforced by China to strengthen control, at the
end of June, 53 countries endorsed China at the UN Human Rights Council. Only
27 countries, including Japan, had joined a statement that criticized China,
most of them were advanced countries.
According to American media Axios, Cuba, Pakistan, Cambodia
and African countries supported China. Except for the Middle East oil-producing
countries that were ruled under the royal family, and countries that had strong
power politics, the names of countries that received Chinese support through
financing for development funds etc. were lining together.
For the first time, through the World Bank, China had recently
disclosed the status of loans to 68 developing countries. The balance at the
end of 2018 reached 101.7 billion dollars (about 10.7 trillion yen). It surged
1.9 times in four years, approaching the World Bank ($103.7 billion).
Meanwhile, the World Bank increased by 40% and the International Monetary Fund
(IMF) increased by 10%.
Chinese loans had high interest rates. Calculating based on
the average debt balance over the period of 20 years, it was 3.5% on average;
despite a relatively short lending period, it greatly exceeding the IMF's 0.6%
and the World Bank's 1%.
Many developing countries were despots, and they had a
strong tendency to dislike having financial discipline being imposed by the IMF
and others as a condition for financing. Even if interest rates were high, they
still relied on China; it seemed that it was because there were few
restrictions.
14 of the 68 countries had more than 10% of their gross
domestic product (GDP) borrowed from China, Djibouti in eastern Africa even reached
39%. Of the 26 countries that had reached 5% or more, a majority of 14
countries supported China on the UN Human Rights Council.
The US and Europe had warned that China would strengthen its influence and control over developing countries with its huge loans and called them debt traps. China would finance the construction of railroads and ports under the "One Belt, One Road" concept with a wide-area economic zone, and gained profits for its own economy, diplomacy, and security by receiving orders for Chinese state-owned enterprises. In 2017, Sri Lanka, which was stuck in repayment, was in a situation of leasing its major ports to Chinese state-owned enterprises for 99 years.
There were also actions to re-examine this total commitment towards China, Angola in southwest Africa had been eligible for $3.7 billion from the IMF. The World Bank and the IMF continued to be wary that loans to developing countries might only be used to fund repayments made to China.
The actual situation of the loan was revealed due to the new
coronavirus. There was growing concern that the developing countries could fall
into debt crisis and the diseases infection could explode due to a decrease in
the medical budget. In April at the Finance Ministers and Central Bank
Governors Meetings of 20 major countries and regions (G20) grace of repayment was
agreed on. It became necessary to understand the actual state of debt held by
each country, and China also disclosed information on specific countries.
68 countries were eligible for repayment grace, and many in heavy debts were small countries.
There was a possibility that discussion at the G20 would proceed until debts were relieved. Up until now with each crisis, the Paris Club (Main creditor council), which was centered around major countries of Japan, the US, and Europe, had set the framework for bailouts of developing countries, but it was not possible to proceed with discussions without the largest lender, China. If the confrontation between US-Europe and China over the Hong Kong issue deepened further, there was a risk that it might overshadow the coordination of debt in developing countries.
China was also exploring the internationalization of the yuan through loans. Eurasia Group, a US research firm had said, "In China, there is a plan to replace the debt lent to developing countries by renminbi denomination replacing the US dollars in return for partial exempting."
The Bretton Woods Conference held in 1944 during World War II decided to set up the IMF and the World Bank, and also recognized the US dollar's key currency status. This United States-led international financial order which had been continued for more than 70 years was now being challenged by China.
It is surprising that China has so much money to lend out to the developing countries. So, China is using money to buy influence globally, including countries in the WHO. Money is the source of its “soft power”.
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