先端特許10分野、AIなど中国9分野で首位 日米を逆転
ネット・IT 中国・台湾 北米
2020/2/12 2:00日本経済新聞 電子版
10年後の技術覇権を競う米中、置き去りにされる日本――。人工知能（AI）や量子コンピューターなど先端技術の特許出願を分析したところ、中国が10分野中9分野で首位に立った。百度（バイドゥ）やアリババ集団などネット大手の台頭が目立つ。一方、特許の質では上位100位中、64を米企業が占めた。次世代の競争力を占う先端技術開発で米中が激しく競う一方、日本は水をあけられている。
知的財産データベースを運営するアスタミューゼ（東京・千代田）が特許データを集計し日本経済新聞と共同で分析した。10分野の特許出願は2000～19年の累計で約34万件に達した。
出願人を国別で見ると、中国が約13万件と全体の4割を占め、日米（いずれも約2割）を上回った。
通年データがそろう直近の17年単年では中国の出願数が9分野で最多だった。ドローンなどに加え近年はAIや再生医療でも急伸する。米国は量子コンピューターのみ中国を上回った。05年に自動運転など4分野で首位だった日本は全分野で2位以下だった。
10分野はいずれも幅広い産業領域に応用が期待される基幹技術だ。AIで先行できれば自動運転や再生医療でも優位に立つなど相乗効果は大きく、10分野での技術覇権は国の競争力そのものを左右する可能性がある。
■「BATH」台頭
中国は15年、第13次5カ年計画で「知財強国」を目指す方針を示すと同時に、「中国製造2025」でハイテク産業を強化。研究開発費は17年に日本の3倍の50兆8千億円に達し、首位米国（55兆6千億円）に迫る。
けん引するのが「BATH」とも呼ばれる百度、アリババ、騰訊控股（テンセント）、華為技術（ファーウェイ）の4社だ。百度は4分野で出願数がトップ10入りするなど、4社の10分野の出願数は15年以降で約6千件に達した。
他社に特許をおさえられると、特許使用料の支払いなど事業展開の障害になるリスクが高まる。技術的に同レベルの特許を持たないと「クロスライセンス」（特許の相互利用）が実現せず、モノやサービスの開発が難しくなる恐れもある。
一方、特許は「質」も重要だ。影響力や将来性など独自指標に基づいて特許の質を分析し、10分野それぞれについて上位10社をランキングした。全100社（研究機関など含む）のうち米国勢が64社を占めた。日本勢が18社と続き、中国勢は1社だった。
■米は警戒強める
中国は質での劣勢を補うため、19年1月に知財を専門に扱う法廷を最高裁に設置するなど知財戦略を強化している。日本は特許出願で05年まで30年超にわたり世界首位だったが、実用化や規格争いで後手に回り多くの産業分野で競争力を失った。今後、中国は保有特許を生かし商用化やサービス開発で先行できるかがカギを握る。
トランプ米政権は中国への警戒を強める。昨年にはファーウェイへの制裁に踏み切った。中国発の技術が世界に浸透する前に頭を押さえる狙いもあるとみられ、先端技術を巡る米中のつばぜり合いは激しさを増す。
Translation
US and China were competing for hegemony in technology of the future ten years – with Japan being left behind. Analysis of patent applications
for advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI) and quantum
computers had shown that China was in the lead in nine out of ten fields. The
rise of Internet major players such as Baidu and Alibaba was prominent. On the
other hand, US companies accounted for 64 out of the top 100 in patent quality.
While the United States and China were fiercely competing for the development
of advanced technologies that might foretell the competitiveness in the next
generation, Japan was behind them.
Astamuse (Tokyo, Chiyoda), an intellectual property database
operator, compiled the patent data and analyzed them jointly with Nikkei. The cumulative
number of patent applications in 10 fields had reached about 340,000 in
2000-19.
Looking at applicants by country, China accounted for about
130,000 applications, representing 40% of the total, exceeding the US and Japan
(both about 20%).
In 2017, the most recent single year with year-round data
available, China had the highest number of applications in nine fields. In
recent years, in addition to drones, AI and regenerative medicine had grown
rapidly. In the United States, only quantum computers surpassed China. Japan,
which ranked first in four fields such as autonomous driving in 2005, ranked
second or lower in all fields.
All ten fields were core technologies that were expected to
be applicable to a wide range of industrial fields. If AI was in the lead,
there would be a great synergistic effect, such as having an advantage in
autonomous driving and regenerative medicine, and technological hegemony in 10
fields might affect the national competitiveness itself.
■ The
rise of "BATH"
In 2015 the 13th Five-Year Plan announced that China's
policy was to become an "intellectual property power country”, and at the
same time to strengthen the high-tech industry with
"China Manufacturing 2025." R & D expenditures tripled to ¥
50,800 billion in 2017 which was 3 times that of Japan, and was approaching the
top US (55,660 billion yen).
Leading companies were Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent and Huawei,
also known as "BATH". Baidu had the top 10 applications in four
fields, and the number of applications of these 4 companies in ten fields had
reached about 6,000 since 2015.
If patents were held by other companies, paying royalties
for using them etc. could increase the risk of obstructing business development.
If you did not have the same level of patents in technology, "cross licensing"
(mutual use of patents) could not be realized, which might make it difficult to
develop goods and services.
On the other hand, "quality" was important for
patents. We analyzed the quality of patents based on unique indicators such as the
power to influence and its future potential, and ranked the top 10 companies in
each of the 10 fields. Out of a total of 100 companies (including research
institutes, etc.), the United States accounted for 64 companies. Japan followed
it with 18 companies, and China had 1 company.
■ The US strengthens vigilance
China had stepped up its intellectual property strategy to
make up for its inferiority by setting up a supreme court etc. in January 2019 in
the court of justice which specifically handled intellectual property. Japan
had been the world leader in patent applications for more than 30 years until
2005, but was unable to compete in many industrial fields due to delays in competition
for practical application and standards. In the future, China held the key in
whether it could take advantage of its patents to advance commercialization and
service development.
The Trump administration was increasingly vigilant against
China. Last year, the government sanctioned Huawei. It was thought that there was
also an aim to suppress the technology from China before it penetrated the
world; and the confrontation between the United States and China over advanced
technology might increase.
So,
the United States and China are fiercely competing for the development of
advanced technologies of the next generation. It is a pity to see that Japan is
falling behind in the development of its high-tech industry.
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