生銹帶省份未富先老，中國大部分地區都將會如此 (2/2)

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

Rust belt province got old before it got rich, as much of China will (2/2)

Mon, February 27, 2023 at 5:13 p.m. PST

By Eduardo Baptista and Farah Master

(continue)

RETIRING EARLY

Another pressing issue is China's retirement age.

At 60 for men, 55 for white-collar women and 50 for women who work in factories, it is among the lowest in the world.

Yet China's life expectancy has risen from around 44 years in 1960 to 78 years as of 2021, higher than in the United States, and is projected to exceed 80 years by 2050.

China's National Health Commission expects the cohort of people aged 60 and over to rise from 280 million to more than 400 million by 2035 - equal to the entire current populations of Britain and the United States combined.

At present, each retiree is supported by the contributions of five workers. The ratio is half what it was a decade ago and is trending towards 4-to-1 in 2030 and 2-to-1 in 2050.

"The payment pressure on pension funds will further increase in the future as China's growing elderly population is living longer and getting old before getting rich," said Jiang Quanbao, professor at the Institute for Population and Development Studies at Xi'an Jiaotong University.

Some reforms may be announced as soon as next month, when China holds its annual legislative session, but what is in the works remains unclear.

Policymakers flagged in 2020 and 2021, including in Premier Li Keqiang's official work report, that they will lift the retirement age, but have yet to act. Last year, China launched its private pension sector after four years of pilots.

Any reforms are likely to be unpopular, as recent cuts to medical benefits in some provinces have shown, with hundreds of elderly taking to the streets this month in the cities of Wuhan and Dalian to protest the moves.

Stuart Gietel-Basten, professor of social science and public policy at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, who focuses on the causes and consequences of low fertility, said raising the retirement age may provoke more protests.

"Pension reform is never popular," Gietel-Basten said, because it involves "either paying more money in, getting less out, working longer or more commonly, all three, and nobody really likes to do that."

STALIN PARK WORKOUT

Harbin, the provincial capital, accounts for a third of Heilongjiang's economy and population. Tourists, unshackled from three years of COVID-19 restrictions, are returning to the former orthodox church Saint Sophia, now a museum, and tranquil shopping boulevards that slice through a cluster of commercial towers.

Heavy trucks leave dark trails on its snowed ring-road, servicing industrial machinery plants and agricultural warehouses in and around the city.

While still humming along, Harbin's economy has been lagging China's overall growth rates in recent years.

On a cold, mid-February morning, its central Stalin Park spoke more of Harbin's past, than its future.

In the park's fitness area, dozens of men over 60 counted push-ups, or lifted weights, cheering each other on. The children's playground area nearby was mostly empty.

Retired entertainer Ma Weiguo, 69, had a theory: "The price of raising a kid is too high."

Ma and his fellow outdoor gymgoers were better off financially than their rural peers, but they also spend more in the city, so had similar complaints.

"My pension is enough to eat and drink but it is not enough to see the doctor," said retired teacher Zhang Zhidong, 78, who receives more than 3,000 yuan a month.

Incomes need to rise for fertility rates to recover, demographers say. Like pensions, wages haven't kept up with China's exports-generated wealth.

Wang, the Wudaogang farmer, has two sons, both living 15 kilometres away in the city of Hegang, and earning around 3,000 yuan a month in wages. The elder, 46, is a truck driver. The younger, 44, a firefighter.

They each have a child of their own. Wang says they "never dared" to have more.

"How can you raise them? It is such a huge expense from the time they start school," she said.

Translation

(continue)

提早退休

另一個緊迫的問題是中國的退休年齡。

男性在 60 歲，白領女性在 55 歲，在工廠工作的女性在 50 歲，是世界上其中最低的。

然而，中國的預期壽命已從 1960 年的 44 歲左右上升到 2021 年的 78 歲，高於美國，預計到 2050 年將超過 80 歲。

中國國家衛生健康委員會預計，到 2035 年，60 歲及以上人口將從 2.8 億增加到 4 億以上 - 相當於英國和美國目前的總人口。

目前，每名退休人員由五名職工供養。 該比率是十年前的一半，並在 2030 年趨向於 4 比 1，在 2050 年趨向於 2 比 1。

西安交通大學人口與發展研究所教授 Jiang Quanbao 表示： “隨著中國不斷增長的老年人口壽命延長、未富先老，未來養老基金的支付壓力將進一步加大。”

一些改革措施最早可能會在下個月宣布，屆時中國將舉行一年一度的人大會議，但具體內容尚不清楚。

政策制定者在 2020 年和 2021 年表示，包括在李克強總理的正式工作報告中，他們將提高退休年齡，但尚未採取行動。 去年，經過四年的試行，中國推出了私營養老金部。

任何改革都可能不受歡迎，正如最近一些省份削減醫療福利所表明的那樣，本月武漢和大連市數百名老年人走上街頭抗議這些舉措。

香港科技大學社會科學與公共政策教授 Stuart Gietel-Basten 專注於研究低生育率的原因和後果，他表示，提高退休年齡可能會引發更多抗議。

Gietel-Basten 說: “養老金改革從來都不受歡迎” ，因為它涉及 “要么支付更多的錢，要么減少支出，要么工作更長時間或更頻繁地工作，這三者兼而有之，沒有人真正喜歡這樣做。”

斯大林公園做運動

省會哈爾濱佔黑龍江省經濟和人口的三分之一。 從三年的 COVID-19 限制中解脫出來的遊客正在返回前東正教 Saint Sophia 教堂（現為博物館）和切割開商業大樓群的寧靜購物大道。

重型卡車在積雪的環路上留下黑色的痕跡，為城市內外的工業機械廠和農業倉庫提供服務。

哈爾濱的經濟雖然仍在蓬勃發展，但近年來，一直落後於中國的整體增長率。

在二月中旬一個寒冷的早晨，中央的斯大林公園講述的更多是哈爾濱的過去，而不是未來。

在公園的健身區，數十名 60 歲以上的男子數著俯臥撑或舉重次數，互相加油。 附近的兒童遊樂區幾乎空無一人。

69歲的退休藝人Ma Weiguo有一個理論： “養孩子的代價太高了。”

Ma和他的戶外健身夥伴在經濟上比農村同齡人要好，但他們在城裡的花費也更多，因此也有類似的抱怨。

每月領取 3000 多元的78 歲退休教師Zhang Zhidong說: “我的退休金夠吃喝，但不夠看病” 。

人口統計學家說，收入需要增加才能使生育率恢復。 與養老金一樣，工資跟不上中國出口創造的財富。

五道崗Wang姓農民有兩個兒子，都住在15公里外的Hegang市，每個月的工資在3,000元左右。 46歲的大仔是一名卡車司機。 44 歲的細仔是一名消防員。

他們每個人都有自己的孩子。 Wang說他們 “從來不敢”再生更多。

她說: “你怎麼能撫養他們？從開始上學起計就是一筆巨大的開支” 。

              So, China is having an aging population that needs more pension fund to support. But I think that the situation is not so bad as many people have their own savings. A drop in the working-class population can be compensated by improving productivity through automation in factories etc., and manpower can be increase by extending the retirement age. While the provincial governments may not have enough money, it is apparent that the central government has. For example, it “gives away” money to African and SE Asian countries to buy friendship and influence to improve its soft power. China has spent a lot of money to build its space station. It seems that people’s incomes need to be increased in order to increase fertility rate. It is obvious that pensions, wages, and medical benefits have not kept up with China's exports-generated wealth.

Note:

The Rust Belt is a region of the United States that experienced industrial decline starting in the 1950s.The U.S. manufacturing sector as a percentage of the U.S. GDP peaked in 1953 and has been in decline since, impacting certain regions and cities primarily in the Northeast and Midwest regions of the U.S., The term "Rust" refers to the impact of deindustrialization, economic decline, population loss, and urban decay on these regions attributable to the shrinking of the once-powerful industrial sector especially including steelmaking, automobile manufacturing, and coal mining. (Wikipedia)